Economics Commons^™

Misinterpreting Others And The Fragility Of Social Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study to what extent information aggregation in social learning environments is robust to slight misperceptions of others’ characteristics (e.g., tastes or risk attitudes). We consider a population of agents who obtain information about the state of the world both from initial private signals and by observing a random sample of other agents’ actions over time, where agents’ actions depend not only on their beliefs about the state but also on their idiosyncratic types. When agents are correct about the type distribution in the population, they learn the true state in the long run. By contrast, our first main result …

Eliminating Latent Discrimination: Train Then Mask, Soheil Ghili, Ehsan Kazemi, Amin Karbasi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

How can we control for latent discrimination in predictive models? How can we provably remove it? Such questions are at the heart of algorithmic fairness and its impacts on society. In this paper, we define a new operational fairness criteria, inspired by the well-understood notion of omitted variable-bias in statistics and econometrics. Our notion of fairness effectively controls for sensitive features and provides diagnostics for deviations from fair decision making. We then establish analytical and algorithmic results about the existence of a fair classifier in the context of supervised learning. Our results readily imply a simple, but rather counter-intuitive, strategy …

Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Export Performance: The Case Of Ethiopia, Wengelawit Kebede Tessema

Masters Theses

This study explores the impact of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) on Ethiopia's export performance. The topic is motivated by the huge investment Government of Ethiopia is making to attract FDI and its optimistic view regarding the role of FDI in boosting export performance. The vector autoregressive model (VAR) has been adopted to estimate the long run causal relationship among exports, foreign direct investment and GDP. Results for the cointegration test show that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship among exports, FDI and GDP. The estimated Error Correction Model finds FDI negatively affecting exports with a two-year gap. Our findings …

Three Essays On Corporate Bonds Issuance And Trading, Violetta Y. Davydenko

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

We explore the bond “clustering” phenomenon, using a sample of bond issuances in 2000-2015. Bond “clustering” is when the number of bonds issued that year exceeds three standard deviations above the mean number of issues for the firm over the sample period. We examine why firms opt for multiple issuances instead of a large one: exhaustion of debt capacity, refunding existing debt, timing favorable market conditions, managing working capital or financing profitable investment opportunities. Results indicate that firms do not cluster due to simply refinancing outstanding debt, but in order to manage their liquidity position and short-tern cash needs, to …

Implications Of Non-Tangible Assets And Macroeconomic Parameters On Long-Term Stock Performance, Leo Rajan Pereira

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

A rational long-horizon stock investment decision is a complex process due to uncertainty in supply and demand, competitive advantage, macroeconomic parameters and various perspectives of investors. Today, the '€˜non-tangible assets'€™ (NTA) that include goodwill and intangible assets are a significant part of corporate assets, but their role in stock performance has not well studied. The purpose of this research is to empirically analyze the implications of NTA and of gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States on the stock price. According to the efficient market hypothesis, stock price reflects all relevant information. The research question focused on the extent …

Adjusting The Momentum Strategy For Small Investors, Ulrich Roger Deinwallner

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Researchers recommended investing according to the long only momentum (MOM) strategy to generate excess returns for private investors. The general problem of this study was that it was unclear when to enter and when to exit declining financial markets to avoid larger losses and to improve the overall performance with the MOM strategy. Therefore, it was important to understand the influence of a timing indicator on the MOM strategy. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between different moving average (MA) settings, the MOM strategy, and the performance of the returns from the construction of small U.S. …

Strategies To Reduce Risks Associated With Corporate Social Responsibility Lending, Victor Johnson

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Bank managers have transacted six trillion dollars of new loans in low and moderate income (LMI) communities because of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) mandate. CRA originated mortgages accounted for over 42% of the defaulted loans because of limited risk strategies. Based on the Aguilera conceptual framework, the purpose of this exploratory single case study was to explore the strategies CSR bank managers used to reduce the risks associated with lending in LMI communities. Data were collected and analyzed from semistructured interviews of five bank managers working in one financial organization located within the U.S. Northeast. Data also included the …

Counterfactuals With Latent Information, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions in settings where the information held by strategic agents and the distribution of payoff-relevant states of the world are unknown. The analyst observes behavior assumed to be rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about the state. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and …

Implicit Bias In The Criminal Justice System: An Economic Review, Brianna Duseau

Economics Honors Papers

This project seeks to investigate implicit racial bias in the prosecution section of the criminal justice system and calculate its potential economic consequences. Combining past research and analyses of racial bias in other contexts with evaluations of legal rulings and precedents that hinder effective reform, potential areas for change and further study are identified. An experiment is designed to identify racial bias within the context of a drug offense where race and strength of evidence are isolated variables. Subsequent results are analyzed in the context of economic and social cost to both individuals and the United States as a whole.

Trade Reforms And Integration Of Cocoa Farmers Into World Markets: Evidence From African And Non-African Countries:, Komi Tsowou, Samuel K. Gayi

Journal of African Trade

No abstract provided.

The Economic And Social Values Associated With Small South Dakota Lakes, Aaron Patrick Sundmark

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The valuation of small fishing lakes is a vital component in understanding the importance of fishing and of recreational resources, in general. Knowing the values associated with such lakes is essential when prioritizing management activities. The overall value of a lake as a resource for human benefit is estimated as the summation of both instrumental and non-instrumental values. Instrumental values consist of economic and utilitarian values, as well as the values that a lake provides from ecosystem services. Non-instrumental values consider what the lake is worth as a good of its own, such as aesthetic, moral, and spiritual values gained …

Food Assistance Programs In The Us And Their Impact On Childhood Obesity, Jannatul Kawsar

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Numerous food assistance programs (FAP) aim to ensure food security among low income American households. However, the literature suggests that participation in food assistance programs may be associated with the US childhood obesity epidemic. The goal of this study is to analyze the association between the number of major food assistance programs children participate in and childhood obesity. The major food assistance programs considered are the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special Supplemental Food Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), and the School Breakfast Programs (SBP). This is the first study to …

Do Socially Conscious Etfs Match Their Active Counterparts?, Ryan Cultice

Undergraduate Honors Thesis Collection

Over the past decade, Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) has grown at a rapid pace and, by some estimates, now represents a quarter of the $48 trillion in assets under professional management in the United States. At the same time, investors have broadly shifted from active to passive investing strategies. While there is significant research in each of these respective areas, we believe that we are the first to examine whether a socially conscious investor can employ a passive approach or if the constrained nature of SRI necessitates active management. As such, we examine the performance of socially conscious ETFs versus …

If You're Not Cheating, You're Not Trying: An Economic Analysis Of The Financial Futility Of Ncaa Sanctions, Travis Freytag

Undergraduate Honors Thesis Collection

The front page of sports news for the past few years has been filled with a cycle of recruiting and academic scandals from universities all over the country. Despite the repercussions that schools face from the NCAA for cheating, they continue to break the rules to obtain the top high school recruits in men’s basketball and football. Why has this become the common culture across college sports? In this study, we used data from a variety of sources, including the NCAA Legislative Database and the US Department of Education, to estimate the relationship between a university’s athletics revenue and the …

Maxent Discussion, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Folder Cover Label
  Shaikh, A. (2019). Maxent approach discussion. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.This item is a label on a cream folder. It marks papers about math and economics.
• Seminar Handout Notes
  Dos Santos, P. (2019, February 12). Integrating microscopic to macroscopic economic configurations. Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow.This item is a sheet of university paper. It has handwriting by Dr. Anwar Shaikh. It looks at system structures.
• Department Seminar Notes
  Shaikh, A. (2019, February 12). Department seminar notes on Paulo Dos Santos: Maxent. Department of Economics, New School …

Prenatal Stress And Birth Weight: Evidence From The Egyptian Revolution, Ronia A. Hawash

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

The Egyptian Revolution that ignited in January 2011 resulted in intense violent conflict between protestors and former regime allies. This generated a significant amount of fear and stress among people who lived in proximity to such events. We use this exogenous shock as a natural experiment to test the causal relationship between prenatal stress and birth weight. Governorate-level fatalities resulting from this conflict will be used as an exogenous indicator for prenatal stress. Using fixed effects and difference-in-difference analysis, results show that higher prenatal stress resulting from political conflict during the first and second trimesters of pregnancy has a …

Determinants Of Student Debt In New England, Alexis A. Gray

Honors Theses and Capstones

This paper examines the determinants of average student debt in New England based on financial, institutional and demographic variables. The dataset is derived from CollegeInsight and measures 15 variables across 71 institutions during the 2011-2014 academic school years. Between 2011 and 2014, average student debt increased 7%, tuition and room and board increased 10%, the percentage of Hispanic students increased 20% and the percentage of international students increased 26%. The estimated model, ln(AVDEBT) = 7.401 – 0.090ln(TUITION) – 0.042ln(BOOKS) + 0.433ln(ROOMBOARD) + 0.07ln(ENROLLMENT) – 0.200PUBLIC – 4.106ASIAN – 1.992AFAMERICAN + 0.254HISPANIC + 0.007WHITE + 0.641INTERNATIONAL – 0.676PERCENTFEDDEBT + 1.018PERCENTPELL, indicates …

Data Disparity: Tiered Pricing As An Alternative To Consumer Iot Data Privacy Regulations, Matthew Lostocco

Honors Theses and Capstones

In recent years, Internet of Things (IoT) devices have exploded on the consumer scene. These emerging products bring new technological capabilities into our everyday lives. IoT is projected to contribute anywhere from $4-11 trillion to the global economy and companies are investing billions of dollars into the technology. However, with the vast amount of data that IoT devices collect, consumers are burdening the risk of having their personal data breached or sold to third parties. This paper first identifies why consumers may be weary or willing towards providing their personal data and how unconscious biases in the purchasing process cause …

Part 5: Federal Spending In The Commonwealth: A Primer, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

In fiscal year 2018, federal government awards in Virginia totaled $109 billion, or $12,866 per Virginian. The Commonwealth’s economy is fueled, for better or worse, by spending decisions in the halls of Congress and the White House. We explore how the federal government spends money in Virginia and highlight procurement spending in the state’s metropolitan areas. We also look back at the impact of the Budget Control Act of 2011 on the economies of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Part 1: Virginia's Growth Improves In Uncertain Times, Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

Virginia’s economy is poised to grow for the fifth consecutive year. The number of jobs and people employed set new records in the summer of 2019 and CNBC recently ranked the Commonwealth as the most business-friendly state in the country. However, increasing economic uncertainty threatens the promise of a bright start to the coming decade. We assess the performance of the Virginia economy and ask what the future holds.

Regulations, Governance, And Resolution Of Non-Performing Loan: Evidence From An Emerging Economy, Abu S. Amin, Mahmood Osman Iman, Mahfuja Malik

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low-income economy when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence from a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of conventional commercial banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the bad loan ratio in this market has dropped from 41% in 1999 to only 10% in 2012. We find that at a micro level, this dramatic improvement is associated with bank management quality and internal governance that were substantially enhanced during a decade of large-scale regulatory reforms. The …

Empirical Essays On Science And New Technology Adoption, Huifeng Yu

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The first chapter studies how the quantity and quality of research output varies over the career using 5.6 million biomedical science articles published over three decades. We show that controlling for selective attrition reconciles conflicts in a longstanding, interdisciplinary literature. While research quality declines monotonically over the career, this decline is easily overlooked because the highest “ability” authors have the longest publishing careers. Our results have implications for broader questions of human capital accumulation over the career and also for federal research policies that shift funding from late- to early-career researchers – while providing more funding to researchers when they …

Health Shocks, Labor Market Activities, And End-Of-Life Medical Expenses, Yuan Fang

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Health capital depletes with each additional health shock. The presence of health insurance may reduce out-of-pocket costs, and hence increase the demand for care following a shock. Also, death is the ultimate health outcome for an individual that follows periods of health morbidities and health shocks. Towards the end individual lives, the demand for and cost of health care increases tremendously, but these costs vary significantly across socio-demographic groups.

Education, Skills, And Wage Outcomes Among Mid-Career Adults : A Cross-National Study, Kai Zhou

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Interest in the role of non-cognitive skills on successful life outcomes (such as academic performance) has increased in recent years. Policy makers in many countries have prioritized the learning of non-cognitive skills in the school curriculum and training frameworks. Although studies in labor economics have provided important insights about the impact of non-cognitive skills on earnings (e.g., Lindqvist and Vestman 2011; Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua 2006), solid evidence about how labor markets produce or facilitate the acquisition of non-cognitive skills in different country settings is lacking. The linkage between education, skills and wages has been at the core discussion of …

Essays On Malpractice Reform, Physician Human Capital, And Physicians' Location Choices, Siyang Li

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In response to the sharp increases in the malpractice insurance premiums in the 1970’s, almost all states in the US have passed tort reforms since then. Previous studies found that tort reforms can reduce malpractice pressure faced by physicians in terms of the size of malpractice rewards and the frequency of malpractice lawsuits. However, there is mixed evidence that state malpractice reforms affect the aggregate supply of physicians in a state. Constrained by the availability of state-level counts of physicians utilized in difference-in-difference framework, most studies were not able to further test for the existence of heterogeneous effects across physicians.

Second-Generation Mexican Immigrants: How Do They Fare In The U.S. Labor Market?Second-Generation Mexican Immigrants: How Do They Fare In The U.S. Labor Market?, William Gustafson

Mark A. Israel '91 Endowed Summer Research Fund in Economics

In 1977, Chiswick came to the general conclusion that second-generation immigrants in the United States have experienced upward income mobility, earning higher wages than their parents. This paper will attempt to explain why this is and how the specific parental combinations making up each second-generation immigrant affects their labor market potential. While there is plenty of research on the first generation of Mexican immigrants, there is not as much research on the assimilation of the second generation. We cannot know the full effect of immigrants on the economy without knowing how their children, who would not be here if not …

An Analysis Of The Impact Of The Section 232 Steel And Aluminum Tariffs: Primary Metal Manufacturing Employment In 2016 Trump And Clinton Majority Counties, Sarah Malott

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the potential impact of the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum on employment using county-level data. This study finds that although employment has increased in steel and aluminum related manufacturing industries, it has decreased in a significant downstream industry of manufacturers of steel products. Furthermore, I analyzed the difference in employment trends between counties that voted majority Trump in the 2016 presidential election and counties that voted majority Clinton, and between counties that experienced marginal victories and counties that voted solidly Democrat or Republican. I find that Trump counties have experienced the impact of the tariffs …

Groundwater Depletion In India: Social Losses From Costly Well Deepening, Susan Stratton Sayre, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

We develop a dynamic groundwater model that incorporates both groundwater pumping and investment in deeper wells and apply the model to the arid, alluvial aquifer region of Northern India that is experiencing rapid depletion. We compute the potential benefits of regulating groundwater use by comparing the net benefits of groundwater under optimal management to the net benefits under a common pool regime with two different cost structures: one with flat electricity tariffs, which are widespread in India, and a second with full marginal cost electricity pricing. Using numerical simulation, we find that the opportunity to invest in deeper wells significantly …

Pay For The Option To Pay? The Impact Of Improved Scientific Information On Payments For Ecosystem Services, Susan Stratton Sayre

Economics: Faculty Publications

The scientific information needed to precisely link land use changes to changes in ecosystem service provision is often unavailable, particularly for hydrological ecosystem services. Potential buyers of ecosystem services must weigh the risk of paying to induce conservation that fails to deliver valuable ecosystem services against the risk that land is developed before its value is known. This paper uses a two period model to assess when expected future improvements in scientific information should substantially impact payments for conservation today. Optimal current payments increase, often substantially, as the quality of expected future information increases, but the gain from increasing payments …

Data Literacy In Economic Development, Simon Halliday

Economics: Faculty Publications

In economic development and other economics electives, students regularly encounter economic measures of absolute and relative deprivation, from poverty measures like the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke index to measures of distribution like the Gini index. By “doing economics,” students practice applying economic measurement to real-world data and develop more general data literacy. The author proposes a series of exercises starting with stylized 10-household economies, proceeding to nationally representative cross-sectional surveys using MS Excel or Google Spreadsheets, and culminating in students applying their acquired data literacy to a team project. The data sources are easily tailored to alternative household surveys in low- and middle-income …