Economics Commons^™

Nebraska Business And Consumer Confidence Indexes: August 3, 2018, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

Business confidence fell in Nebraska during July 2018. The Business Confidence Index – Nebraska (BCI-N) fell from 115.4 in June to 106.4 In July. The Consumer Confidence Index – Nebraska (CCI-N) also fell, dropping from 103.9 in June to 101.9 in July. Both business and consumer confidence are above the neutral level of 100, but confidence in Nebraska is best described as solid rather than strong. When asked about the most important issue facing their business, customer demand was mentioned by 36 percent of respondents, while the availability and quality of labor was mentioned by 24 percent and 9 percent …

Gdp And Refugees: An Economic Argument For Accepting Refugees, Michael Jarman

Marriott Student Review

This paper examines both the costs and benefits associated with accepting refugees and purports to show that accepting refugees is economically beneficial; increasing GDP in the long run. There is a substantial cost associated with accepting and sustaining refugees, both in providing necessities and in the impact that refugees have on local job markets. However, longitudinal data pulled from Denmark, Germany, and Turkey has shown that local markets do recover from the initial shock. Over time as refugees integrate into their host communities, they provide dividends in the form of increasing demand, greater mobility and wage increases for locals, and …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- August 2018, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Puerto Rico: Two Years After Hurricane Maria, Center For Puerto Rican Studies

CUNY Centro, The Center for Puerto Rican Studies

Two years since Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017, between 220,000 to 255,000 residents of the island have relocated to the United States. This exodus represents one of the most significant movements of Puerto Ricans to the U.S. mainland in the island’s history in terms of both volume and duration. Two-years post-Hurricane Maria, we expect that an estimate of 60,000 to as high as 78,751 left the Island in 2019. One year since Hurricane-Maria, emigration estimates — of 159,415, with an upper bound confidence interval of 176,603 — is as high as the net migration …

The Effects Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On Common Stock And American Depository Receipts, Bradley David Zynda Ii

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Uncertainty can have profound implications on both firms and individuals who hope to optimally make decisions in their best interest. In this research, I seek to examine the impact that economic policy uncertainty has on domestic and foreign stock. In particular, I take a market microstructure perspective focused on stock liquidity and volatility measures in response to changes in economic policy uncertainty. Understanding the directional flow of economic policy uncertainty and the magnitude of the consequences at home and abroad can both help prepare agents to make good decisions about the future and exhort policy makers to be more efficient …

Downside Risk And Stock Returns In The G7 Countries: An Empirical Analysis Of Their Long-Run And Short-Run Dynamics, Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, Thomas C. Chiang, Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Any risk-return tradeoff analysis in aggregate equity markets relies on appropriate measures of risk, in most studies based on (co-)variance relations. Consequently, in integrated global markets, country-specific expected return is priced with a world price of covariance risk. This study relates domestic excess stock returns to the world downside risk. Evidence shows that downside tail risk (as a multiplier of volatility) has long memory cointegration properties; hence, the underlying risk aversion behavior in an integrated market is associated with the conditional quantile ratio, the correlation of stock returns, and the cointegrating coefficient of downside risk. Our empirical results based on …

Special Issue On Climate Change And Land Conservation And Restoration: Advances In Economics Methods And Policies For Adaptation And Mitigation, Sarah Cline, Sahan T.M. Dissanayake

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate change will likely impact the ecosystem services and biodiversity generated from conserved land. Land conservation can also play a significant role in achieving cost-effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. In this special issue we feature seven papers from the 2017 NAREA Workshop, “Climate Change and Land Conservation and Restoration: Advances in Economics Methods and Policies for Adaptation and Mitigation.” The articles include papers furthering the methodological frontier; portfolio optimization, dynamic rangeland stocking, and global timber harvest models, and those highlighting innovative applications; climate smart agricultural practices in Nigeria and Vietnam, welfare impacts on birding, and carbon and albedo pricing.

Three Essays On The Economics Of Controlling Mobile-Source Episodic Air Pollution, Ramjee Acharya

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Cache County and the Wasatch Front, Utah have persistently experienced some of the nation’s worst air quality over the past decade. Elevated PM2.5 concentrations during wintertime “red air day” episodes frequently exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We investigate the possible effects of two different economic policies in controlling these regional problems. Adapting a model originally developed to calculate the social investment necessary to control nationwide disease outbreaks, we estimate an optimal preventative capital stock (for example, investment in public transportation) of between $4.1 million and $14.1 million to control red air day episodes in Cache County, and …

Risk Aversion And Double Marginalization, Soheil Ghili, Matthew Schmitt

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In vertical markets, eliminating double marginalization with a two-part tariff may not be possible due to downstream firms' risk aversion. When demand is uncertain, contracts with large fixed fees expose the downstream rm to more risk than contracts that are more reliant on variable fees. In equilibrium, contracts may thus rely on variable fees, giving rise to double marginalization. Counterintuitively, we show that increased demand risk or risk aversion can actually mitigate double marginalization. We also characterize several sufficient conditions under which increased risk or risk aversion does exacerbate double marginalization. We conclude with an application to merger analysis.

Early Stimulation And Nutrition: The Impacts Of A Scalable Intervention, Orazio P. Attanasio, Helen Baker-Henningham, Raquel Bernal, Costas Meghir, Diana Pineda, Marta Rubio-Codina

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper evaluates the effects of the implementation of a structured early stimulation curriculum combined with a nutritional intervention through public large-scale parenting support services for vulnerable families in rural Colombia, known as FAMI, using a clustered randomized controlled trial. We randomly assigned 87 towns in rural areas to treatment and control and 1,460 children younger than 1 year of age were assessed at baseline. The interventions were also complemented with training, supervision and coaching of FAMI program facilitators. We assessed program effects on children’s nutritional status, and on cognitive and socio-emotional development; as well as on parental practices. The …

An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of The Change In Real Effective Exchange Rate On China's Inflow Of Foreign Direct Investment, Mingyu Niu

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

With the development of worldwide economic and globalization, China plays an important role in international trade. Since the "reform and openness" and "five years' plan", China’s economy became the second largest in the world. During the period of economic development, Foreign Direct Investment became an important part of improving market socialism in China. In this paper, I use monthly data on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and the index of real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese RMB for the period from Jan 2008 to Nov 2017. I develop a statistical model to test the causality between FDI …

East Texas Demographics And Gross Regional Product - June 2018, Rod Mabry, Manuel Reyes-Loya, Marilyn Young

Hibbs Newsletter

This issue of Hibbs Outlook focuses on education in East Texas. A more educated population increases available work skills, resulting in higher output, higher family incomes and more social mobility and stability—that is, a greater quality of life for all. You will note in the following pages how well East Texans are competing with other Texans, and all Americans, in the battle to achieve a more educated population

Education In East Texas - August 2018, Rod Mabry, Manuel Reyes-Loya, Marilyn Young

Hibbs Newsletter

This issue of Hibbs Outlook focuses on education in East Texas. A more educated population increases available work skills, resulting in higher output, higher family incomes and more social mobility and stability—that is, a greater quality of life for all. You will note in the following pages how well East Texans are competing with other Texans, and all Americans, in the battle to achieve a more educated population.

Toxic Effects Of Lead Disposal In Water: An Analysis Of Tri Facility Releases, Patrick Koval

Economics Department Working Papers

Using county-level TRI data from 2003 to 2016, I find evidence that lead emissions in water adversely affect birth weights within the emitting county, especially with respect to the percentage of births considered low birth weight within that county (less than 2,500 grams). I find that a one percent increase in lead emissions per square mile increases the proportion of low birth weights by 0.27 percentage points. For a county with an average number of births in a particular year, this one percent increase in lead per square mile translates to an additional $475,000 in hospitalization costs from complications with …

Corporate Social Responsibility And Financial Performance: An Examination Of The Dow Jones Sustainability North American Index, Elizabeth A. Fides

Applied Economics Theses

This thesis explores the topic of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the relationship between CSR and corporate profitability. This thesis includes a literature review which traces the history of CSR from 1920s through current theoretical positions. The thesis then examines the relationship between financial gain and CSR as defined by the sustainability parameters set by the Dow Jones Sustainability Index North America. Results from analysis performed show that corporations which practice CSR may benefit from increased stability compared to other index performance criteria, but improved financial performance as measured by stock price is inconclusive.

Resilience And The U.S. Labor Market: A Cross-Scale Analysis On The Role Of Industrial Diversity And Specialization, Christian D. Sprague

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how the effects of industrial diversity and specialization vary across geographical scales and classification levels. The notion of a robust institutional design, in conjunction with a regional resilience framework, is used to model how diversity and modularity affect unemployment through-out economic cycles. We use fixed effects models on employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau in all available U.S. counties from 1998-2015. Key results suggest the optimal structure of industrial composition varies across scale, namely, that fine levels of industrial diversity are beneficial at higher levels of geographical scale (regions), whereas a broad …

Effects Of Senate Bill 4 On Wage-Theft: Why All Workers Are At Risk In Low-Income Occupations, Daniella Salas-Chacon

The Scholar: St. Mary's Law Review on Race and Social Justice

Abstract forthcoming

Do Congressmen Really Drive Cars?, Tyler Brown

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

My research focuses on stock returns around term elections. I will be looking at the 50 most held stocks of congressmen, and taking the returns of these stocks against the market average during election season. I examine if there are Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) that can be realized as a result of information about the elections. I want to find any possible trading strategy that investors could use to obtain returns that are in excess of the market average. I am attempting to discover how the market behaves when election season is occurring. This information could prove to be very …

Do Fomc Actions Speak Loudly? Evidence From Corporate Bond Credit Spreads, Siamak Javadi, Ali Nejadmalayeri, Tim Krehbiel

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We find that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actions (especially rate cuts) narrowed corporate credit spreads during the pre-crisis period of 2002-2007. During the 2008 crisis period, we find that both conventional cuts and quantitative easing decreased spreads. But FOMC inactions caused significant widening of spreads. The effects are especially large for speculative-grade and short-maturity bonds. Overall, the policy uncertainty during the crisis and macroeconomic theories during the pre-crisis period help to explain why FOMC announcements impacted credit spreads. The Fed’s actions targeted at promoting growth and/or providing systemic liquidity were especially noted by the corporate bond market. Keywords:

Changes In Sentiment On Reit Industry Excess Returns And Volatility, Daniel Huerta-Sanchez, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

REIT characteristics pose unique risks and benefits to investors who seek liquid diversification and hedging vehicles to complement their portfolios. This paper tests for the asymmetric effect of individual and institutional investor sentiment on REIT industry returns and conditional volatility. We simultaneously model the impact of two markedly different groups of investors on the return generating process of the REIT industry. Our findings suggest that noise trading imposes significant systemic risk on the realization of REIT industry returns. Interestingly, corrections in institutional investor expectations have a larger effect on REIT industry returns and volatility than changes in individual investor expectations. …

Disentangling The Impacts Of Industrial And Global Diversification On Firm Risk, Mohammad Jafarinejad, Thanh Ngo, Diego Escobari

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We examine the impact of corporate diversification on firm risk exposure from 1998 to 2016. We find that both global and industrial diversification mitigate idiosyncratic and world market risk while having a negligible impact on U.S. market risk, but the effects vary before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Before the crisis, only global diversification mitigates idiosyncratic risk, but it increases firms' exposure to world market risk. During the crisis, industrial diversification increases idiosyncratic risk, but both types of diversification increase exposure to U.S. market risk. After the crisis, both types of diversification increase firms' exposure to U.S. …

Smart Sentencing Guidelines: The Effect Of Marginal Policy Changes On Recidivism, Sarah M. Estelle, David C. Phillips

Faculty Publications

Public appeals regarding criminal justice have shifted somewhat from “tough on crime” to “smart justice” that is more lenient when tradeoffs merit it. Among other considerations, smart sentencing policy depends on how sentence severity affects recidivism. Using administrative data on two common non-violent felonies committed by adults in Michigan, we measure the effect of sentences on offenders' future criminal activity. Discontinuities in the legislative guidelines that constrain sentences chosen by Michigan judges provide exogenous variation in sentence severity. Harsher sentences generated by sentencing guidelines significantly reduce recidivism by felony shoplifters but not repeat drunk drivers. Recidivism falls most for young, …

Managing Herbicide Resistance: Listening To The Perspectives Of Practitioners. Procedures For Conducting Listening Sessions And An Evaluation Of The Process, Jill Schroeder, Michael Barrett, David R. Shaw, Amy Asmus, Harold Coble, David E. Ervin, Multiple Additional Authors

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Seven half-day regional listening sessions were held between December 2016 and April 2017 with groups of diverse stakeholders on the issues and potential solutions for herbicide resistance management. The objective of the listening sessions was to connect with stakeholders and hear their challenges and recommendations for addressing herbicide resistance. The coordinating team hired Strategic Conservation Solutions, LLC, to facilitate all the sessions. They and the coordinating team used in-person meetings, teleconferences, and email to communicate and coordinate the activities leading up to each regional listening session. The agenda was the same across all sessions and included small-group discussions followed by …

Enforcing Regulation Under Illicit Adaptation, Andrés González Lira, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Attempts to curb illegal activity by enforcing regulations gets complicated when agents react to the new regulatory regime in unanticipated ways to circumvent enforcement. We present a research strategy that uncovers such reactions, and permits program evaluation net of such adaptive behaviors. Our interventions were designed to reduce over-fishing of the critically endangered Pacific hake by either (a) monitoring and penalizing vendors that sell illegal fish or (b) discouraging consumers from purchasing using an information campaign. Vendors attempt to circumvent the ban through hidden sales and other means, which we track using mystery shoppers. Instituting random monitoring visits are much …

Markets For Information: An Introduction, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We survey a recent and growing literature on markets for information. We offer a comprehensive view of information markets through an integrated model of consumers, information intermediaries, and firms. The model embeds a large set of applications ranging from sponsored search advertising to credit scores to information sharing among competitors. We then review a mechanism design approach to selling information in greater detail. We distinguish between ex ante sales of information (the buyer acquires an information structure) and ex post sales (the buyer pays for specific realizations). We relate this distinction to the different products that brokers, advertisers, and publishers …

Unobserved Heterogeneity In Auctions, Philip A. Haile, Yuichi Kitamura

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A common concern in the empirical study of auctions is the likely presence of auction-specific factors that are common knowledge among bidders but unobserved to the econometrician. Such unobserved heterogeneity confounds attempts to uncover the underlying structure of demand and information, typically a primary feature of interest in an auction market. Unobserved heterogeneity presents a particular challenge in first-price auctions, where identification arguments rely on the econometrician’s ability to reconstruct from observables the conditional probabilities that entered each bidder’s equilibrium optimization problem; when bidders condition on unobservables, it is not obvious that this is possible. Here we discuss several approaches …

Information Content Of Dsge Forecasts, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the question whether information is contained in forecasts from DSGE models beyond that contained in lagged values, which are extensively used in the models. Four sets of forecasts are examined. The results are encouraging for DSGE forecasts of real GDP. The results suggest that there is information in the DSGE forecasts not contained in forecasts based only on lagged values and that there is no information in the lagged-value forecasts not contained in the DSGE forecasts. The opposite is true for forecasts of the GDP deflator.

Can Network Theory-Based Targeting Increase Technology Adoption?, Lori Beaman, Ariel Benyishay, Jeremy Magruder, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In order to induce farmers to adopt a productive new agricultural technology, we apply simple and complex contagion diffusion models on rich social network data from 200 villages in Malawi to identify seed farmers to target and train on the new technology. A randomized controlled trial compares these theory-driven network targeting approaches to simpler strategies that either rely on a government extension worker or an easily measurable proxy for the social network (geographic distance between households) to identify seed farmers. Our results indicate that technology diffusion is characterized by a complex contagion learning environment in which most farmers need to …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 2, Number 8, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke, Omar Solís, Esmeralda P. Muñiz

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Nonstationary Panels With Unobserved Heterogeneity, Wenxin Huang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation develops several econometric techniques to address the unobserved heterogeneity in nonstationary panels, namely identifying latent group structures in cointegrated panels, studying nonstationary panels with both cross-sectional dependence and latent group structures, and estimating panel error-correction model with unobserved dynamic common factors.

Chapter 1 considers a panel cointegration model with latent group structures that allows for heterogeneous long-run relations across groups. We extend Su et al. (2013) classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) method to the nonstationary panels and allow for the presence of endogeneity in both the stationary and nonstationary regressors in the model. In addition, we allow the dimension of the …