Economics Commons^™

The Capm Is Not Dead, Muhammad Ahmed Saleem Baig

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is among the earliest and most widely used security valuation models. Since its inception, CAPM has been criticized more than it has been appreciated. Although, it has been criticized both empirically and theoretically, it is still one of the most extensively used methods for the calculation of equity betas and returns throughout the globe. Among the most significant implications of the model is that the expected stock returns are determined by their corresponding level of systematic risk and not the idiosyncratic risk. According to much of the recent literature it is referred to as …

Reanalyzing The Political Stability Of Britain's Democratization, Nathan R. Burton

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

A recent article in Journal of Economic History by Dasgupta and Ziblatt uses bond yields to analyze the political risk of the 19th century democratization legislation of Britain known as the Reform Acts. Dasgupta and Ziblatt find that the volatility of yields is relatively high during periods of legislation, and model the yields via GAM method, concluding that the political risk associated with the Reform Acts was high. I reproduce the study and comparing those times of 'high' volatility to all periods and find nothing to compare high-volatility periods to, suggesting that it is inconclusive whether the Reform Acts were …

Microstructure Noise: The Use Of Two Scales Realized Volatility For The Noisy High-Frequency Data And Its Implications For Market Efficiency And Financial Forecasting, Aristides Romero

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

As a basic principle in statistics, a larger sample size is preferred whenever possible. Nonetheless, in the financial world, especially equities and currencies trading, including all available data poses great challenges due to the noise present in the volatility estimation. In his paper I examine the Two Time Scales Realized Volatility estimator by Zhang, Mykland, and Ait-Sahalia (2005b) and I find that it not only provides a more efficient estimator than a basic estimator of the integrated volatility of returns, but it also consistently estimates the microstructure noise present in the latent efficient return process. I find that by using …

A Monte Carlo Study On The Persistence Of Variance With Garch, Aristides Romero Moreno

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

The GARCH model is widely used to forecast volatility for economic and financial Data. There are, however, several shortcomings of using the simple GARCH estimator alone for forecasting volatility. The major issue with the use of the default GARCH model is the persistence of variance that evolves through time and the simple GARCH model fails to address. This paper looks at the GARCH(1,1) model and consistent with Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990), finds that it overstates the persistence of variance due to model misspecification, specifically the lack of structural shifts.

Exchange Patterns And Relations In Collaborative Governance., Charles Wharton Kaye-Essien

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Collaborative governance has received considerable attention in recent years. From environmental resource management to public safety, collaborative governance continues to play a vital role in regional problem solving. In spite of this increasing popularity previous attempts to model the political, economic, and demographic determinants of collaboration have in most cases produced inconsistent results, thereby undermining the ability to generalize from such findings. Additionally, our understanding of the relational patterns that emanate from collaborative agreements remains fairly rudimentary. The main objective of this research is to address some of the gaps in the literature and improve our understanding of collaborative governance …

The Taper Tantrum Of 2013: Momentum-Driven Or A Return To Fundamentals?, Colette L. Terhune

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study explores the driving force behind the Taper Tantrum of 2013. Following the Fed’s announcements of potential QE tapering, investors poured of the bond market, causing yields to rise sharply. This analysis seeks to determine whether this was a momentum-driven reaction or a return to fundamental values. Throughout this paper, fundamental determinants of bond prices and investor returns are combined with trading volume and bid-ask spread data to determine the motivating market force. The findings suggest that the Taper Tantrum was a return to fundamental bond prices following an asset bubble burst, likely due to momentum trading.

Decomposing The Determinants Of Interest Rates In Turkey And Selected: Emerging Markets Implementing Inflation Targeting Policies, Erhan Aslanoğlu, Pinar Deniz

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

Inflation Targeting (IT) is a monetary policy in which keeping inflation as close as to the target level using policy tools is the main focus for many central banks. However, purely targeting inflation has the potential to reveal the drawback of the trade-off between inflation and output, leaving out the possibility of perfectly anticipated inflation where there is no trade-off. IT policy is relatively more difficult for emerging market economies compared to developed countries due to the potential fragilities emerging from the large amount of fluctuations in the portfolio investments. High current account deficits, fiscal dominance, lack of credibility, imperfections …

The Incidence Of Carbon Taxes In U.S. Manufacturing: Lessons From Energy Cost Pass-Through, Sharat Ganapati, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how changes in energy input costs for U.S. manufacturers affect the relative welfare of manufacturing producers and consumers (i.e., incidence). In doing so, we develop a novel partial equilibrium methodology designed to estimate the incidence of input taxes. This method simultaneously accounts for three determinants of incidence that are typically studied in isolation: incomplete pass-through of input costs, differences in industry competitiveness, and substitution amongst inputs used for production. We apply this methodology to a set of U.S. manufacturing industries for which we observe plant-level unit prices and input choices. We find that about 70 percent of …

Expected Worth For 2 × 2 Matrix Games With Variable Grid Sizes, Michael R. Powers, Martin Shubik, Wen Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We offer a detailed examination of a broad class of 2 × 2 matrix games as a first step toward considering measures of resource distribution and efficiency of outcomes. In the present essay, only noncooperative equilibria and entropic outcomes are considered, and a crude measure of efficiency employed. Other solution concepts and the formal construction of an efficiency index will be addressed in a companion paper.

Expected Worth For 2 × 2 Matrix Games With Variable Grid Sizes, Michael R. Powers, Martin Shubik, Wen Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We offer a detailed examination of a broad class of 2 x 2 matrix games as a first step toward considering measures of resource distribution and efficiency of outcomes. In the present essay, only noncooperative equilibria and entropic outcomes are considered, and a crude measure of efficiency employed. Other solution concepts and the formal construction of an efficiency index will be addressed in a companion paper.

Mcmc Confidence Sets For Identified Sets, Xiaohong Chen, Timothy M. Christensen, Elie Tamer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In complicated/nonlinear parametric models, it is generally hard to determine whether the model parameters are (globally) point identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of parameters in econometric models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moments. The CSs for the identified set or for a function of the identified set (such as a subvector) are based on inverting an optimal sample criterion (such as likelihood or continuously updated GMM), where the cutoff values are computed via Monte Carlo simulations directly from a quasi posterior distribution of the criterion. We establish new …

Optimal Inference In A Class Of Regression Models, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is …

Optimal Inference In A Class Of Regression Models, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is …

Money And Status: How Best To Incentivize Work, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Status is greatly valued in the real world, yet it has not received much attention from economic theorists. We examine how the owner of a firm can best combine money and status to get her employees to work hard for the least total cost. We find that she should motivate workers of low skill mostly by status and high skill mostly by money. Moreover, she should do so by using a small number of titles and wage levels. This often results in star wages to the elite performers. By analogy, the governance of a society should pay special attention to …

Monte Carlo Confidence Sets For Identified Sets, Xiaohong Chen, Timothy M. Christensen, Elie Tamer

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In complicated/nonlinear parametric models, it is generally hard to know whether the model parameters are point identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of full parameters and of subvectors in models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moment equalities or inequalities. These CSs are based on level sets of optimal sample criterion functions (such as likelihood or optimally-weighted or continuously-updated GMM criterions). The level sets are constructed using cutoffs that are computed via Monte Carlo (MC) simulations directly from the quasi-posterior distributions of the criterions. We establish new Bernstein-von Mises (or …

Energy Prices, Pass-Through, And Incidence In U.S. Manufacturing, Sharat Ganapati, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how increases in energy input costs for production are split between consumers and producers via changes in product prices (i.e., pass-through). We show that in markets characterized by imperfect competition, marginal cost pass-through, a demand elasticity, and a price-cost markup are sucient to characterize the relative change in welfare between producers and consumers due to a change in input costs. We find that increases in energy prices lead to higher plant-level marginal costs and output prices but lower markups. This suggests that marginal cost pass-through is incomplete, with estimates centered around 0.7. Our confidence intervals reject both …

The Incidence Of Carbon Taxes In U.S. Manufacturing: Lessons From Energy Cost Pass-Through, Sharat Ganapati, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper estimates how increases in production costs due to energy inputs affect consumer versus producer surplus (i.e., incidence). In doing so, we develop a general methodology to measure the incidence of changes in input costs that can account for three first-order issues: factor substitution amongst inputs used for production, incomplete pass-through of input costs, and industry competitiveness. We apply this methodology to a set of U.S. manufacturing industries for which we observe plant-level output prices and input costs. We find that about 70 percent of energy price-driven changes in input costs are passed through to consumers. This implies that …

The Incidence Of Carbon Taxes In U.S. Manufacturing: Lessons From Energy Cost Pass-Through, Sharat Ganapati, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how changes in energy input costs for U.S. manufacturers affect the relative welfare of manufacturing producers and consumers (i.e. incidence). In doing so, we develop a partial equilibrium methodology to estimate the incidence of input taxes that can simultaneously account for three determinants of incidence that are typically studied in isolation: incomplete pass-through of input costs, differences in industry competitiveness, and factor substitution amongst inputs used for production. We apply this methodology to a set of U.S. manufacturing industries for which we observe plant-level unit prices and input choices. We find that about 70 percent of energy …

Reputation With Opportunities For Coasting, Heski Bar-Isaac, Joyee Deb

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Reputation concerns can discipline agents to take costly effort and generate good outcomes. But what if outcomes are not always observed? We consider a model of reputation with shifting observability, and ask how this affects agents’ incentives. We identify a novel and intuitive mechanism by which infrequent observation or inattention can actually strengthen reputation incentives and encourage effort. If an agent anticipates that outcomes may not be observed in the future, the benefits from effort today are enhanced due to a “coasting” effect. By investing effort when outcomes are more likely observed, the agent can improve her reputation, and when …

Reputation Building Under Uncertain Monitoring, Joyee Deb, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study a canonical model of reputation between a long-run player and a sequence of short-run opponents, in which the long-run player is privately informed about an uncertain state that determines the monitoring structure in the reputation game. The long-run player plays a stage-game repeatedly against a sequence of short-run opponents. We present necessary and sufficient conditions (on the monitoring structure and the type space) to obtain reputation building in this setting. Specifically, in contrast to the previous literature, with only stationary commitment types, reputation building is generally not possible and highly sensitive to the inclusion of other commitment types. …

Optimal Inference In A Class Of Regression Models, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is …

Financial Performance In Upstream, Downstream, And Integrated Oil Companies In Response To Oil Price Volatility, Jonathan P. Garcia

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper investigates the relation between crude oil price volatility and stock returns among oil companies using a three-part methodology, by using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as oil price benchmark. I asses the various indicators that set signals for oil price volatility and the interpretation of each (PMI, S&P500, DJIA, and World Crude Oil Output). This research also focuses on the relation between different types of companies in the oil industry (integrated, upstream, and downstream) and how each type of company will be assessed in a particular way to predict abnormal returns, based on market data and statistical analyses …

Does The Market Matter For More Than Investment?, Yiwei Zhang

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Does the market matter for more than investment? by Jason Smith examines how themultiple effects of the market (through stock prices) can affect a corporation. The mainfindings are that low stock prices precede lower costs and lower investments. The maininnovation of this work is showing that the market can matter for more than a simpleinvestment. Low stock prices imply that the market may disagree with investment and leadthe manager to reduce costs. This result does not appear to be driven by financial constraints.

Spread Trading In Corn Futures Market, Ryan D. Napier

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The non-linear relationship between old crop – new crop year spreads in corn futures market and stock-to-use (S-U) ratios published by the United States Department of Agriculture is analyzed. Using a non-linear logarithmic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model, we capture asymmetric market behaviors in high and low S-U regimes. Capturing this relationship and understanding the non-linear aspects of the relationship is of interest of grain merchandizers and speculators in the market. A spread trading strategy is simulated for the sample period, January 1985 through April 2015, to determine if the non-linear relationship is a profitable arbitrage opportunity in the market.

Identifying Irrationality And Fear-Driven Reactions To Financial Market Shocks & Terrorism, Kimberly M. Roland

Honors Scholar Theses

Economic research on post 9-11 terrorism lacks a distinction between fear-based reactions and rational financial market behavior in its analysis surrounding terror strikes. The purpose of this paper is to expose and interpret the fear triggered by terrorism in financial markets, and to separate rational market responses from irrational, fear-driven investor reactions. A rational market response follows the efficient market theory (Wang 1993) in which investors alter their behavior based on changes in fundamental values. Becker and Rubinstein (2011) define terror-triggered fear as the magnitude with which subjective beliefs about danger hinder objective risk assessment. I apply this definition to …

A Survey Of The Cuban Government’S Prospects Of Attracting Foreign Direct Investment., Philip Moore

College of Arts & Sciences Senior Theses

No abstract provided.

The Hub Of Human Innovation: Economic Impacts Of The Utep Paso Del Norte Clean Energy Incubator Program In El Paso, Texas Over October 2014 - December 2015, Manuel L. Reyes Loya, Jesus Mendoza, David A. Schauer

Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Past Institutional Structures On Current Economic Development Levels: The Former French African Colonies, Ana May Jerolamon

Senior Honors Projects

By the early 1960’s, most of the French colonies in Africa had gained independence. Since then, these former colonies have reached economic development levels that vary widely by country. This project will argue that while most of these countries were official colonies for less than one hundred years, the institutions that were created during the colonial period still have an effect on the current economic development of such countries. Since political institutions become intertwined with the culture and structure of a country,

they are extremely hard to modify; therefore, we can expect to find the presence of institutions that are …

From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to study the theory of secular stagnation, which was made famous by the American Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen in his book Full Recovery or Stagnation. The theory of secular stagnation has reappeared in economic circles today due to recent economic conditions since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The thesis will analyze the history of the stagnation theory dating back to Classical economists in the 19^th century. The concept of a stagnating economy has been talked about for centuries with many economists adding important thoughts. Furthermore, the thesis will address the current questions and …

From Creativity To Team Innovation: Building The Bridge In Organizations, Jonathan Brown

Creativity and Change Leadership Graduate Student Master's Projects

The outcome of this project is a new model for team innovation. It was created as a result of the need for teams to be better prepared to innovate. The approach of this project was to investigate, clarify, combine, synthesize and finally propose useful ways to accelerate team innovation in organizations. It started with a diagram and evolved into an articulation of each step of the model. This prototype model is called Model for Purposeful Team Innovation. The model is divided in seven steps that include identity, mission, quality, targets for improvement, roadmap, execution, monitoring to assess the maturity and …