Economics Commons^™

Living With The Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, And Output Losses For Developing Countries, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper investigates the potential impacts of the degree of divergence in open macroeconomic policies in the context of the trilemma hypothesis. Using an index that measures the relative policy divergence among the three trilemma policy choices, namely monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness, we find that emerging market countries have adopted trilemma policy combinations with the least degree of relative policy divergence in the last fifteen years. We find that a developing or emerging market country with a higher degree of relative policy divergence is more likely to experience a currency or debt crisis. However, a developing …

Poverty And Proficiency In New York State, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

A Laplace Stochastic Frontier Model, William C. Horrace, Christopher F. Parmeter

Center for Policy Research

We propose a Laplace stochastic frontier model as an alternative to the traditional model with normal errors. An interesting feature of the Laplace model is that the distribution of inefficiency conditional on the composed error is constant for positive values of the composed error, but varies for negative values. Therefore, it may be ideally suited for analyzing industries with many forms on or close to the efficient frontier. A simulation study suggests that the model performs well relative to the normal-exponential model when the two-sided error is misspecified. A brief application to US Airlines is provided.

Negotiated Settlement Under Mlb Final-Offer Salary Arbitration System, J. Richard Hill, Nicholas A. Jolly

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper provides a detailed analysis of negotiated salaries under Major League Baseball's final-offer arbitration process using data from the 2007–2010 seasons. There is a wage premium of 25% for hitters and 14% for pitchers filing for arbitration. Interestingly, there is an additional premium for exchanging offers for hitters but not for pitchers. The additional premium in salary for hitters who exchange offers with their clubs amounts to 7%.

Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences In The Return To Skill? Cross-City Evidence From 1980–2000, Paul Beaudry, Ethan Lewis

Dartmouth Scholarship

Male-female wage gaps declined significantly over the 1980s and 1990s, while returns to education increased. In this paper, we use cross-city data to explore whether, like the return to education, the change in the gender wage gap may reflect changes in skill prices induced by the diffusion of information technology. We show that male-female and education-wage differentials moved in opposite directions in response to the adoption of PCs. Our most credible estimates simply that changes in skill prices driven by PC adoption can explain most of the decline in the US male-female wage gap since 1980.

العلاقة السببية بين النمو النقدي والتضخم دراسة قياسية لحالة اقتصاد العراق للمدة من 1980-2013, جنان سليم هلال

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يعد النمو النقدي والتضخم من اكثر الظواهر الاقتصادية التي نالت اهتمام الخبراء في مجال الاقتصاد ، وما زالت موقع جدل لما لهما من اهمية كبرى في تحريك الاقتصاد سواء اقتصادات الدول المتطورة او النامية ، فظهرت هناك العديد من الدراسات التي بينت تاثير احدهما على الاخر او تاثير احدهما على المتغيرات الاقتصادية الاخرى . ومع تعدد وجهات النظر للتركيز على اهمية هذه العلاقة فهناك اختلاف في طبيعة هذا التاثير او في الية انتقال هذا الاثر بحسب تفسيرات المدارس الاقتصادية المعروفة .

إشكالية تحرير التجارة الخارجية للاقتصادات النامية في ظل متطلبات التنمية المستدامة (حالة الاقتصاد الجزائري), بن عبد العزي سفيان

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تسعى هذه الدراسة الى الإجابة عن إشكالية أصبحت تؤرق العديد من الاقتصادات النامية على غرار الاقتصاد الجزائري خاصة في عملية تصدير منتجاته الى الأسواق الدولية في إطار التجارة الخارجية عندما أصبحت هذه المنتجات تصطدم بعوائق فنية كالاشتراطات والمعايير البيئية تحت مظلة حماية البعد البيئي كبعد مهم من أبعاد التنمية المستدامة لتخلص الى نتائج وتوصيات هامة علها تكون كفيلة بتسهيل نفاذ المنتجات الجزائرية الى الأسواق العالمية.

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Methods In Truncated Models, Patrick Turley, Dr. James B. Mcdonald

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Data truncation is the source of econometric problems in many economic datasets. Truncation occurs when all observations below or above a certain threshold are systematically removed or are unavailable. For example, campaign contributions below a certain level are not usually publicly available, so any contribution below that level would not be included in the dataset. When such data is used in standard ordinary least squares analysis, the results of the analysis are biased and inconsistent. Many methods have been developed to try to correct for truncation bias with varying degrees of success. In my research, I examined a new estimation …

Homesick: How Housing Tax Breaks Benefit The Wealthy And Create Mcmansions, Andrew R. Hanson, Ike Brannon, Zackary Hawley

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

Rethinking Tax Benefits For Home Owners, Andrew R. Hanson, Ike Brannon, Zackary Hawley

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

No abstract provided.

A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a Keynesian model of aggregate consumption. Our theory emphasizes the importance of the relative income hypothesis and debt finance for understanding household consumption behavior. It is shown that particular importance attaches to how net debtor households service their debts, and that the treatment of debt-servicing commitments as a substitute for savings by these households creates the potential for 'sudden stops' in consumption spending (and hence aggregate demand).

Were Revenues Of National Basketball Association Franchises Affected By The Tim Donaghy Gambling Scandal Of 2007?, Travis Buhrow

Major Themes in Economics

In 2007 the National Basketball Association (NBA) endured one of the biggest scandals in the history of professional sports. Tim Donaghy, a referee in the National Basketball Association, pleaded guilty to providing inside information on NBA games to gamblers and receiving money from their winning bets. Through econometric analysis, this paper investigates if the Tim Donaghy gambling scandal of 2007 had an effect on the revenues of NBA franchises. All the statistics and data used in this paper are from the 2002-2003 through the 2011-2012 NBA regular seasons, a total of ten seasons. This paper finds that there is strong …

The Final Four Formula: A Binary Choice Logit Model To Predict The Semifinalists Of The Ncaa Division I Men’S Basketball Tournament, Cameron Fuqua

Major Themes in Economics

The NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament is one of the most popular sporting events in America. This paper dissects the tournament and attempts to accurately predict the four semi-finalists (“the final four”) using a binary choice logit model. The model does better than any current rating system at predicting these four teams. This paper also examines some common issues about predicting college basketball as a whole. Overall, this paper provides a insights for selection committees, participants in office pools, and coaches to help them achieve their own individual goals.

Automation And The Labor Force, Loren Nerhus

Major Themes in Economics

Technological progress has been the catalyst behind the increases in living standards across time. One aspect of technological progress is automation. Automation, more than other technologies, has significant effects on the labor force. From World War II until now, routine tasks have largely been automated. Perceptive tasks have belonged mainly to the domain of human labor until very recent innovations. These innovations may change the labor force, as new employment opportunities will not replace jobs as quickly as the old ones are automated. The number of labor hours needed to produce the goods in the U.S. economy will soon decrease …

What Motivates U.S. Food Aid Donations? Characteristics Of Countries That Received Food Aid From The U.S. In 2012, Beth Monnier

Major Themes in Economics

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) claims the purposes of U.S. food aid are “to reduce hunger and malnutrition and assure that people everywhere have enough food at all times for healthy, productive lives” (USAID 2014). In this paper, the researcher uses ordinary least squares regression analysis to test how accurately this mission statement reflects food aid allocations in the year 2012. The dependent variable is metric tons of food aid donated to each country by the United States. This study finds that recipient countries with high malnutrition death rates and large populations received a higher percent of …

Royal Flush Or Just A Bluff: Casinos And County Unemployment In The Midwestern United States, Amber Irlmeier

Major Themes in Economics

Legislators and community members alike have discussed the pros and cons of opening casinos. A frequently mentioned benefit of opening casinos is that they will bring jobs and thus reduce unemployment. Past studies have looked at the effect casinos have on unemployment over a period of a few years; this is the first study to look at data from over two decades (1990-2012). This study uses an ordinary least squares regression to look at the effect that 56 commercial casinos in the Midwestern United States have had on county unemployment. A significant correlation is found between the presence of a …

La Coexistencia De Dos Agriculturas En Argentina Una Mirada A La Vida De Una Granja Familiar: ¿Cómo Sobrevivir Al Lado De Las Grandes Empresas?, Camille Sanchez De La Vega

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Desde los primeros años del siglo XX, el desarrollo de Argentina como país estaba coincidió con el desarrollo de la industria agrícola. Hoy, Argentina es famosa por su papel en el mercado global como exportadora de bienes naturales. No solamente es un país con uno de los niveles más altos de alimentos transgénicos, sino que tiene el título del mayor exportador de producción orgánica en América Latina. Con los dos tipos de agricultura —exitosos pero contradictorios— con un enfoque hacia la exportación, quería entender como esta coexistencia está reflejada en el mercado interno para los bienes naturales.

A través de …

Energizing Europe: The Geopolitics Of Energy Security And Energy Diversification In The European Union, Gabriel Alfredo Uribe

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Europe has always had an interesting relationship with Russia, be it social, political, or economic. From the days of the Cold War, when there was the ideological battle of communism versus capitalism, with the alliance of NATO representing a front against the Iron Curtain, certain remnants of this dynamic have still survived. Russia has not always had the best of relations with the European Union (EU), which has not made it easy for the EU to have fully functioning foreign relations with them. This is problematic specifically because of the importance that Russia has on EU energy security, as it …

Externalities Of The Transatlantic Trade And Investment Partnership: Effects On Emerging Economies And The Developing World, Eric Stroiman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The process of globalization and the liberalization of the global trade regime has become an integral part of the modern political and economic landscape. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) currently being negotiated between the United States and the European Union has the potential to be the most impactful free trade agreement of the 21^st century as these blocks represent the two largest economies in the world. This paper analyzes the conceivable effects of this agreement on the uninvolved emerging economies and developing countries of the world. The two main theories on the outcome heavily involve the fate …

Rhetoric Or Results?: Tourism, The Aquarium, And The People Of Fortaleza, Molly Silvia

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

When one thinks of tourism, he or she conjures images of travel, exotic locations, and spending money. Yet rarely do people stop and think about where exactly their money is going. Nowadays, tourism is a booming industry that many countries believe contributes significantly to their GDP. But while tourism may contribute significantly to a country’s economy, it may not provide the people of that nation with any substantial improvements in their quality of life. This monograph questions why Brazil has chosen to invest its GDP in the tourism industry, while the nation has 21.4% of its population in poverty (The …

Parte De Nosotros: La Tierra, El Estado, Y La Identidad Avá Guaraní Dentro Del Modelo De Desarrollo Paraguayo, Shayna Orens

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Paraguay, a small and often overlooked landlocked country in South America has seen rapid economic growth in recent years. This growth, which can be attributed to the country’s agro-­‐ export model, has been highly unequal, concentrating both land and economic power in the hands of the few. Centered around the production and export of genetically modified crops like soy and corn, the model is one that requires vast amounts of land and has implied rapid deforestation and changes in land use and land cover, especially in Eastern Paraguay. Representing close to two percent of the population, the indigenous people of …

El Mundo Del Tejido: Concepciones De Identidad Femenina Y Roles De Genero En Chinchero, Cusco, Perú, Jamie Wollum

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Esta investigación, usando una estrategia feminista que enfoque en facetas sociales y económicas de la sociedad Peruana, identifica y analiza las maneras en que el tejido afecta la identidad femenina y los roles de género en la comunidad del pueblo Chinchero del Cusco, Perú. 1 En adelante lo mencionaré como ISP. J.Wollum 4 Los fines del estudio tratan de establecer una manera en que podemos desafiar el estado subordinado de la mujer con un análisis de su identidad. Examina las mujeres involucradas en la producción, venta, y compra de los tejidos en este pueblo como actores elementales en la construcción …

(Wp 2014-02) Trade Volatility And The Gatt/Wto: Does Membership Make A Difference?, Abdur Chowdhury, Xuepeng Liu, Miao Wang, M. C. Sunny Wong

Economics Working Papers

Using bilateral trade data for 210 countries over the period 1948-2003, this paper attempts to shed some light on the relationship between WTO and members’ trade volatilities. We show that the trade among WTO members tends to be more stable than the trade outside the WTO, and there is strong evidence of interdependence of trade volatilities. The results show comovement of trade volatilities across all dyads in general, and much stronger comovement among WTO members than between WTO and non-WTO members. Such strong comovement implies that WTO member countries not only share the benefits of having an interdependent and more …

Forecasting Short-Term Stock Returns Using Irregular Pricing Behavior In The Options Market, Thomas W. Sampson

Master's Theses

This paper uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between today's implied volatility on AMD stock options with tomorrow's return on the underlying. An economic analyis of the options markets' micro-structure is discussed to establish the intuition and the basis behind the relationship. Four seperate models are developed to examine its statistical significance and the ability of options' prices to accurately forecast returns on the underlying security.

The hypothesis of the paper is that daily changes in implied volatility can be used to earn higher than expected returns on the underlying stock. I find that implied volatility can be used …

Long-Term Health Effects Of Malaria Exposure Around Birth: Evidence From Colonial Taiwan, Simon Chang, Belton Fleisher, Seonghoon Kim, Shi-Yung Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the early 20th century, the Japanese colonial government initiated an island-wide malaria eradication campaign in Taiwan, resulting in not only a rapid decline in malaria across time but also elimination of disparity across regions. Exploiting variations in malaria deaths caused by the campaign, we estimate causal effects of malaria exposure around birth on the health of elderly born in the colonial period. To mitigate potential biases caused by measurement errors and omitted confounders, we employ climatic factors to instrument for malaria deaths. Our findings suggest that people who were exposed to a high malaria risk around birth tend to …

Further Evidence On The Spatio-Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Holly, Pesaran, and Yamagata (Journal of Econometrics 2010; 158: 160–173) use a panel of 49 states over the period 1975–2003 to show that state-level real housing prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, such as changes in interest rates, oil prices and technological change. They apply the common correlated effects estimator of Pesaran (Econometrica 2006; 74(4): 967–101), which takes into account spatial interactions that reflect both geographical proximity and unobserved common factors. This paper replicates their results using a panel of 381 metropolitan statistical areas observed over the …

Effects Of Labour Taxes On Hours Of Market And Home Work: The Role Of International Capital Mobility And Trade, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Prescott hypothesis that permanently higher marginal tax rates on labour income fully explain the decline in market hours worked in Europe (relative to North America) over three decades is subject to a theoretical investigation. The Prescott model consists of isolated economies that are not linked by international capital mobility or international exchange of goods. We study a two-country model with free international capital mobility. We find that imposing higher marginal labour tax rates in one country leads to international capital inflows into that country, which acts to counteract the negative employment effect of higher taxes. Market hours worked in …

Indexing The Minimum Wage Is A Good Idea — By Any Measure, Louis D. Johnston

Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Optimal Allocation Of Resources In Airport Security: Profiling Vs. Screening, Aniruddha Bagchi, Jomon Paul

Faculty Articles

This model examines the role of intelligence gathering and screening in providing airport security. We analyze this problem using a game between the government and a terrorist. By investing in intelligence gathering, the government can improve the precision of its information. In contrast, screening can be used to search a passenger and thereby deter terrorist attacks. We determine the optimal allocation of resources between these two strategies wherein we model the role of intelligence using the concept of supermodular precision. One striking result is that under certain circumstances, an increase in the investment in intelligence can induce a more devious …

Impact Of The Bakken Oil Boom On Employment And Wages In North Dakota, Cody M. Brandt

Undergraduate Economic Review

A difference-in-difference methodology is used to examine the impact of the 2008 oil boom on employment and wages in North Dakota. Finding show an 8.68 percent increase in employment and 4.85 percent increase in wages in counties producing Bakken oil relative to the rest of North Dakota. In addition, a modified Difference- in-Difference is used to examine the rate of growth in employment and wages. Results show a 0.271 percent increase in quarterly job growth in Bakken oil producing counties relative to the rest of North Dakota. No significant impact is observed in the growth of wages.