Economics Commons^™

Financial And Labor Market Determinants Of Mortgage Delinquency Rates: Mclean County, Il, 1985-2011, Jake Mann

Honors Projects

This study examines the relationship between labor and financial market factors and the mortgage delinquency rate in McLean County, Illinois, between January 1985 and December 2011. The mortgage delinquency rate is defined as the ratio between the number of defaulting mortgages and the number of mortgages issued. The volume of defaulting mortgages is measured through the number of lis pendens notices filed with the Recorder’s Office. A lis pendens notice informs the grantee of a mortgage loan that the grantor's payments are three months overdue. The issuance of this notice starts a foreclosure process. As labor market indicators we consider …

The Household's Savings And The Industrial Production : A Time Series Analysis For Poland, Michal Wojewodzki

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In this paper the author will examine the short and long-run causality between the growth rate of households‟ savings in the consolidated banking system in Poland, and the Polish economic growth rate (using the industrial production index as its proxy). This research paper will cover Poland‟s economic development over the periods 1997 to 2010 (in a quarterly approach). The main purpose of this paper is to shed light on the direction of the causality between saving and growth, so that the Polish policymakers can either focus on policies promoting growth or focus on saving policies in order to effectively and …

A Quantitative Study Of Influential Factors On Hibor Under Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System, Jianbin Situ

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is one of the most important interest rates in the Hong Kong money market. This paper studied some of the significant factors in determining HIBOR under Hong Kong‟s Linked Exchange Rate System using a VAR model to describe how various factors affect the movement of HIBOR. The result indicates that HIBOR, foreign exchange rate and M1 are correlated.

Herding Evidence In Chinese Stock Market : A Study Of The Relationship Between Stock Price Index And Trading Volume Based On Behavioral Finance Theory, Xiaofeng Zhao

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Over the last couple decades, more evidence has been found supporting the notion that investors are not always rational. Herding behaviors have been observed in both the stock market crash1 and financial bubbles2, which were beyond the understanding of modern finance theory. In this paper, the herding phenomenon was explored in the Chinese stock market by the study of the relationship between stock prices and trading volume over the past 7 years. It was found that the change of price is statistically significant to have caused the change of trading volume, but the reverse is not true. Theoretically, this identifies …

Analysis On Accrual-Based Models In Detecting Earnings Management, Tianran Chen

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

This paper analyzes the problems with the alternative accrual-based models in detecting earnings management. The researcher will focus on comparing the Jones Model and the Modified Jones Model, which are the two most frequently used model in empirical analysis nowadays. Earnings management is a kind of management which uses accounting techniques to meet the executives‟ needs for earnings; it is a widely debated topic, hence it is worth looking at. Experts and professionals in this area found many approaches to detect the earnings management; within these approaches are the accrual-based models which include the modified Jones model, which currently is …

The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Failure From 2002 To 2005 : An Implicit Consensus Of Carry Trade, Yui Law

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

There are many literatures devoted to the study of the uncovered interest parity (UIP); however, majority of them focus on whether UIP exists and only a few concentrate on the pattern of the UIP failure. By using a panel VAR approach, this paper compares the intensive carry trade period, between 2002 and 2005, and the pre-intensive carry trade period, between 1998 and 2001. The results show that during the intensive carry trade period UIP failure was caused by the self-fulfilling behaviour of investors. High interest rate currencies made investors believed that the currencies would appreciate and bided their price even …

How Can Saving Deposit Rate And Hang Seng Index Affect Housing Prices : An Empirical Study In Hong Kong Market, Tao Tang

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of savings deposit rate and Hang Seng index on real estate prices in Hong Kong Market. Two different periods are chosen to conduct this research: one period is the deflationary time, from 1998 to 2003, and the other is the reviving economical time from 2004 to 2007. The aim of this research is to examine the influences of these variables in different economic conditions, and find out whether there are any causal effects amongst them.

The Benefits Of Introducing A Housing Price Index Future In Hong Kong, Yingsi Feng

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

It is widely recognized and accepted that, financial innovation such as options and futures can help to manage risk, speculate, arbitrage and discover price in financial markets. As such, the researcher believes that the introduction of a Housing Price Index Futures in Hong Kong can greatly improve the investment environment in Hong Kong‟s property market. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to perform a feasibility study of the proposed Housing Price Index Futures in Hong Kong financial Market, to reveal the crucial need of this innovation for the betterment of the real estate market in Hong Kong, and the …

Evidences Of High Sensitivity Of Investors To Financial News After Crises : Cases Study Of Asian Financial Crisis And Sub-Prime, Yui Law

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In the academic field of international stock market, some critics argue that, after having a global financial crisis, stock markets around the world will become more integrated. In fact, many researchers have put forward empirical works showing that the co-relation, or Granger-Causality, among different stock markets, strengthens comparatively at the post crisis period. This finding is rational; however, the explanation given for the increased co-movement after the crisis is not sufficient. The critics suggest that this increase is caused by the increase in international arbitrage activities and the higher degree of integration among markets. The Purpose of this paper is …

Implications Of A Managed Floating Exchange Rate System On The Interest-Rate Behavior Of Singapore, Jingjing Wei

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Singapore and Hong Kong are two similar economies, but they have rather different monetary systems and exchange-rate regimes. Singapore’s managed floating exchange rate regime contrasts with Hong Kong’s currency board system (CBS) featured by the Hong Kong–United States dollar peg. In this paper, we appraise the implications of the managed floating exchange rate regimes on the interest-rate behavior of Singapore. We examine the Singapore-US interest differential under the Singapore’s exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), current Global Financial Crisis and none-crisis periods by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We hope that the good performance of Singapore’s …

Analysis Of Hong Kong To Be An Offshore Financial Center Of Rmb, Qichao Song

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In this article we aim to discuss the possibility and feasibility as well as the disadvantages and barriers for Hong Kong to be an offshore financial center of RMB. As the most biggest financial center in China, Hong Kong need to develop the RMB business for strengthening its position in the international competition. And we think that to become an RMB offshore financial center is not only an opportunity but also a responsibility for Hong Kong. We also give some suggestions on this issue.

Citizens’ Satisfaction With The Sar Government's Overall Performance In Post-Colonial Hong Kong : Result Of Ols Analysis, Luo Yang

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Through studying of the impact of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region government’s performance in various policy areas upon the level of citizen’s satisfaction with the government’s overall performance, this paper confirms the general wisdom that economic development is an important source of citizens’ satisfaction with the government’s performance. It further proves that, government’s performance on democratic development and freedom of speech and assembly are also very powerful variables in the model and its partial coefficients are impressive.

An Experimental Study About Effective Factors Of First-Day Offer Pricing : Taking Stock Markets As An Example, Yi Liu

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The author examines the literature with respect to the pricing of initial public offerings and focus upon the effective factors of pricing. Using a data base of all share offerings undertaken in Hong Kong over a one year period (in 2007), the author finds that there is considerable evidence for the proposition that large and well-capitalized companies tend to price their share offerings at a higher absolute level in order to get a higher level of first-day closing price. Using classical statistical methods, the author finds that the pricing strategy of offering companies is connected to shareholders’ desire of the …

The Fall Of Long-Term Capital Management, Xiaowei Guo

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The author examines the literature with respect to the pricing of initial public offerings and focus upon the effective factors of pricing. Using a data base of all share offerings undertaken in Hong Kong over a one year period (in 2007), the author finds that there is considerable evidence for the proposition that large and well-capitalized companies tend to price their share offerings at a higher absolute level in order to get a higher level of first-day closing price. Using classical statistical methods, the author finds that the pricing strategy of offering companies is connected to shareholders’ desire of the …

Do Pennsylvania Casinos Cannibalize Pa State Lottery Revenues?, Andrew J. Economopoulos, William Stolle

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

The first Pennsylvania casino opened its doors in 2006. Studies of other states, and nationally, indicate that casinos cannibalize lottery revenues as consumers substitute lottery spending for casino spending. Pennsylvania time-series data and cross-sectional data for each county suggests that higher casino wagering leads to lower lottery spending. Unlike the other studies, Pennsylvania's rate of cannibalization is relatively low where state lottery revenues decline by five to fifteen cents for each dollar of casino revenue gained. About half of the cannibalization takes place in the counties where the casino resided.

Making Babies: Getting Into The Mood For Love, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The pursuit of a perfect partner by women can betraced back to thousands of years ago when the world was still a society of hunters and gatherers. Back then, men tended to provide the family with meat and protection while women stayed at home to plant crops and take care of junior.

Economies In Transition And In Development: A Possible Warning From Adam Smith, Maria Pia Paganelli

Economics Faculty Research

Adam Smith was concerned with the nature and causes of economic growth and development. One may therefore ask if it is possible to use his work, even if only as speculation, in order to gather useful insights about today’s developing or transitional economies. With all the due caveats, this paper asks: if Adam Smith were alive today, what would he say about transitioning and developing economies? Testing whether Adam Smith would be correct in his analysis, I leave to other work.

On Rational Expectations And Stabilization Policy, Gonzalo Moya

Economics Graduate Research Papers

No abstract provided.

What Determines Public Pension Investment Risk-Taking Policy, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

State public pension plans, mostly defined benefit plans, cover pension benefits for 12.8 million active public employees and 5.9 million retirees and other annuitants. However, by the end of 2009, public pension plans had accumulated a total funding deficit of $697 billion (measured by the difference between actuarial pension assets and liabilities). On average, public pension funds cover 75 percent of their liabilities, but individual state results vary greatly.

The 2008 stock market crash strongly affected pension asset value in that equity allocation on average accounted for 56 percent of invested assets. The average 2009 pension asset beta of 0.63 …

Cover - Table Of Contents

Major Themes in Economics

No abstract provided.

Introduction, Ken Mccormick

Major Themes in Economics

No abstract provided.

Contracted Job Development In Rural Communities: Vr Agency Perspectives, Catherine Ipsen, University Of Montana Rural Institute

Employment

Legislation guiding VR service delivery provides flexibility regarding how services are organized and implemented. As a result, state VR agencies provide services in the context on their own resource parameters (e.g. budget and agency size) and geography. This natural variation allows for a variety of service delivery models to emerge, each with associated benefits and drawback. To date, however, there is little comparative evidence for evaluating rural service delivery practices. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted 82 qualitative interviews with VR informants from 48 state VR agencies including 17 general agencies, 12 blind/low vision agencies, and 19 combined agencies. …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — April 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

The Interdependence Between Homeland Security Efforts Of A State And A Terrorist's Choice Of Attack, Timothy Mathews, Anton D. Lowenberg

Faculty Articles

Consider a state that chooses security levels at two sites (Targets A and B), after which a terrorist chooses which site to attack (and potentially a scope of attack). The state values A more highly. If the state knows which target the terrorist values more highly, he will choose a higher level of security at this site. Under complete information, if the terrorist’s only choice is which site to attack, the state will set security levels for which the terrorist prefers to attack A over B if and only if the ratio of the value of B to the value …

Making Babies: Getting Into The Mood For Love, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Within a span of 50 years, Singapore had to worry about its fertility rate for two very different reasons. Its development years in the 1960s and 1970s saw a baby boom, with the country’s maternity hospital even earning a place in the Guinness Book of World Records for the largest number of birth in a single maternity facility— a record it held for ten years. However today, the country’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement rate. SMU professor Norman Li provides a take on this phenomenon.

Why Are Cities The Only Place For Dreams? Outmigration Of Youths From Rural Uttarakhand, Peter Grunawalt

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Outmigration of rural youth from the hill districts of Uttarakhand has happened since time immemorial. However, within the past decade it has appeared as a frontline issue. This is evidenced by the massive increase in government and NGO rural livelihood development schemes directly and indirectly targeting outmigration throughout the state. This study investigates migration from the mostly rural districts of Uttarakhand to the urban centers of the plains, namely Dehradun and Delhi. It focuses on the prospective livelihood of young adults. Questions addressed in the study; (1) What are the different factors which influence migration of youths? (2) What are …

Ce Spring 2012, Coyote Economist

Coyote Economist

Inside this Issue:

We’re on Facebook...................2

Cool Interactive Graph............3

End-of-Year Party!.................3

Then and Now..........................4

Tentative Winter Schedule......4

How Does Climate Change Affect Agricultural Stability In Southeast Unguja? An Assessment Of The Threats To Agriculture And Food Security From Rising Temperature And Changes In Predictability And Intensity Of Rainy Seasons., Eloise Reid

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The relationship between climate change, agriculture, and food security on the island of Unguja was studied. Informal interviews were carried out in the south-eastern coastal communities of Bwejuu, Paje, and Jambiani in order to gain perspective and awareness of local knowledge concerning changes in climate and it's affects on crop production. Formal interviews were conducted in Stone Town with the Ministry of Agriculture, the Department of Environment, the Sustainable Management of Land and the Environment office, private climate change experts and environmental consultants, and local NGO's to gain insight on what aspects of climate change are most detrimental in the …

Fund My Trip: Is Outmigration Changing The Functioning Of Microfinance In Rural Areas?, Vadim A. Berg

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Remittances have been integral to Nepal’s economy since the 19^th century, and they have never been as crucial to the nation’s income as today, accounting for about a quarter of GDP. Microfinance first appeared in Nepal in the 1950s under the form of agricultural cooperatives, and today both saving and credit cooperatives and formal microfinance banks play an important role in giving rural populations access to financial institutions. Increasingly, both these two flows have begun to interact, and this research aims to shed light on these microfinance foreign employment loans. Is microcredit making migration a more affordable and viable …

The Influence Of Childhood Poverty On Life Chances- The Case Of Academic Performance, Katherine Mccabe

Honors Projects in History and Social Sciences

The purpose of this research is to explore, identify, and address how children who grow up in poverty face greater challenges in adulthood than those who grow up nonpoor. The two main areas of interest are the differentials of child well-being and school achievement. The daily hardships that poor children face include inadequate nutrition, fewer learning experiences, instability of residence, lower quality schools, exposure to environmental toxins, family violence, homelessness, dangerous streets, and less access to friends, services, and jobs. Through a literature review and analyses of a national probability data set on high school students, I demonstrate how growing …