Economics Commons^™

What Are Analysts Really Good At?, Ohad Kadan, Leonardo Madureira, Rong Wang, Tzachi. Zach

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Sell-side analysts employ different benchmarks when defining their stock recommendations. Forexample, a ‘buy’ for some brokers means the stock is expected to outperform its peers in the same sector(“industry benchmarkers”), while for other brokers it means the stock is expected to outperform themarket (“market benchmarkers”), or just some absolute return (“total benchmarkers”). We use thesebenchmarks to analyze the role of stock picking, industry picking and market timing in contributing to theperformance of stock recommendations. We are able to do so given that different benchmarks suggest theuse of different sets of abilities. Analysis of the relation between analysts’ recommendations and theirlong-term …

Buyer's Equilibrium With Capacity Constraints And Restricted Mobility: A Recursive Approach, Gabriele Camera, Jaehong Kim

ESI Working Papers

We study a decentralized trading model as in Peters (1984), where heterogeneous market participants face a trade-o between price and trade probability. We present a novel proof of existence of a unique demand vector in Nash equilibrium, based on a recursive approach that exploits the monotonicity of matching functions.

Building And Rebuilding Trust With Promises And Apologies, Eric Schniter, Roman M. Sheremeta, Daniel Sznycer

ESI Working Papers

Using trust games, we study how promises and messages are used to build new trust where it did not previously exist and to rebuild damaged trust. In these games, trustees made non-binding promises of investment-contingent returns, then investors decided whether to invest, and finally trustees decided how much to return. After an unexpected second game was announced, but before it commenced, trustees could send a one-way message. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors and focus on naturally occurring remedial strategies used by promise-breakers and distrusted trustees, their effects on investors, and …

Too Many Cooks Spoil The Broth: How The Tragedy Of The Anticommons Emerges In Organizations, Matthew W. Mccarter, Shirli Kopelman, Thomas A. Turk, Candace Ybarra

ESI Working Papers

In organizations, conflict often revolves around commons resources because they are critical for influence, performance, and organizational survival. Research on property rights, territoriality, and social dilemmas suggests that to reduce such conflict, organizations should facilitate the (psychological) privatization of commons resources. We complement these three literatures by drawing from the legal, organizational, and social psychology literatures to model how psychologically privatizing organizational commons resources – to prevent a tragedy of the commons (an overuse problem) – can lead to the emergence of equivalently problematic tragedy in organizations: the tragedy of the anticommons (an underuse problem). Our model contributes to these …

Experimental Evidence On The Properties Of The California’S Cap And Trade Price Containment Reserve, Rachel Bodsky, Domenic Donato, Kevin James, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We report on a series of experiments to examine the properties of California’s Reserve Sale allocation mechanism to be implemented as part of the forthcoming cap and trade program and compare it with an alternative reserve sale mechanism. The proposed reserve sale mechanism allows covered entities to purchase allowances after the primary auction sale at fixed prices. If demand for units is greater the amount supplied in the reserve sale, a Proportional Rationing rule is used to distribute allowances based on submitted request for units. This rule is contrasted with to an alternative rule, Equal Rationing in which allowances are …

Information Effects In Multi-Unit Dutch Auctions, Joy A. Buchanan, Steven Gjerstad, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We design a multi-unit descending-price (Dutch) auction mechanism that has applications for resource allocation and pricing problems. We address specific auction design choices by theoretically and experimentally determining optimal information disclosure along two dimensions. Bidders are either informed of the number of bidders in the auction, or know that it is one of two possible sizes; they also either know the number of units remaining for sale or are unaware of how many units have been taken by other bidders. We find that revealing group size decreases bids, and therefore revenue, if units remaining are not shown. When group size …

Do Liars Believe? Beliefs And Other-Regarding Preferences In Sender-Receiver Games, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We examine subjects‟ behavior in sender-receiver games where there are gains from trade and alignment of interests in one of the two states. We elicit subjects‟ beliefs, risk and other-regarding preferences. Our design also allows us to examine the behavior of subjects in both roles, to determine whether the behavior in one role is the best response to the subject‟s own behavior in the other role. The results of the experiment indicate that 60 percent of senders adopt deceptive strategies by sending favorable message when the true state of the nature is unfavorable. Nevertheless, 67 percent of receivers invest conditional …

Are You A Good Employee Or Simply A Good Guy? Influence Costs And Contract Design, Brice Corgnet, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

We develop a principal–agent model with a moral hazard problem in which the principal has access to a hard signal (the level of output) and a soft behavioral signal (the supervision signal) about the agent's level of effort. In our model, the agent can initiate influence activities and manipulate the behavioral signal. These activities are costly for the principal as they detract the agent from the productive task. We show that the agent's ability to manipulate the behavioral signal leads to low-powered incentives and increases the cost of implementing the efficient equilibrium as a result. Interestingly, the fact that manipulation …

Risk And Dependence Analysis Of Australian Stock Market - The Case Of Extreme Value Theory, Abhay Singh, David E. Allen, Robert J. Powell

Research outputs 2012

The quantification of risk and dependence are major components of financial risk modelling. Financial risk modelling frequenty uses the assumption of a normal distribution when considering the return series which makes modelling easy but is inefficient if the data is not normally distributed or if it exhibits extreme tails. When dealing with extreme financial events to quantify extreme market risk, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) proves to be a natural statistical modelling technique of interest. Estimation of tail dependence between financial assets plays a vital role in various aspects of financial risk modelling including portfolio theory and hedging amongst applications. Extreme …

Microinsurance: A Case Study Of The Indian Rainfall Index Insurance Market, Xavier Giné, Lev Menand, Robert W. Townsend, James Vickery

Faculty Scholarship

Efforts have been made in India and other countries in recent years to develop formal insurance markets to improve diversification of weather-related income shocks. This article aims to survey the features of one of these markets, the Indian rainfall index insurance market. “Index insurance” refers to a contract whose payouts are linked to a publicly observable index; in this case, the index is cumulative rainfall recorded on a local rain gauge during different phases of the monsoon season. This form of insurance is now available at a retail level in many parts of India, although these markets are still in …

Trade, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Trade, compiled by Anwar Shaikh, containing working papers, lecture notes, correspondence, and handwritten research notes on international trade, exchange rates, comparative and absolute advantage, purchasing power parity, and trade balances. The materials date from 2005 through 2012 and are associated with Anwar Shaikh’s research and teaching at the New School for Social Research in New York.
• Trade classical equations, Anwar Shaikh, 2012-05-07. Unpublished manuscript.
• Classical trade theory, Anwar Shaikh, 2001-10-24, revised 2008-10-07. Unpublished manuscript.
• Competition, exchange rates, and trade balances, Anwar Shaikh, undated. Unpublished manuscript.
• Automatic trade balance is a “doctrinaire delusion”, …

Analysis Of Discrete Choice Probit Models With Structured Correlation Matrices, Bhaskara Ravi

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Discrete choice models are very popular in Economics and the conditional logit model is the most widely used model to analyze consumer choice behavior, which was introduced in a seminal paper by McFadden (1974). This model is based on the assumption that the unobserved factors, which determine the consumer choices, are independent and follow a Gumbel distribution, widely known as the Independence of irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) assumption. Alternate models that relax IIA assumption are the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models, which allow dependency between unobserved factors. However, GEV models do not incorporate all dependency patterns, other choice behaviors such as …

Why Do Corporations Donate? An Analysis Of Factors Affecting Corporate Philanthropy, Patrick Luensmann

Honors Program Theses

The purpose is to determine the influence of measureable economic variables on corporate philanthropy among the top 30 American companies between 2007 and 2009. The significant variables in the model, with a 10% significance level, are Net Income, Assets, Financial Leverage, PE Ratio, and Profit Margin. The model can account for 87.41% of the change between the two years.

Dispersed Ownership: The Theories, The Evidence, And The Enduring Tension Between "Lumpers" And "Splitters", John C. Coffee Jr.

Faculty Scholarship

This article argues that dispersed ownership resulted less from inexorable forces and more from private ordering. Neither legal nor political conditions mandated or prevented the appearance of dispersed ownership. Rather, entrepreneurs, investment bankers, and investors — all seeking to maximize value — sometimes saw reasons why selling control into the public market would maximize value for them. But when and why? That is the article's focus. It argues that law played less of a role than specialized intermediaries — investment banks, securities exchanges, and other agents — who found it to be in their self-interest to foster dispersed ownership and …

A Systems Approach To Ecological Economic Models Developed Progressively In Three Interwoven Articles, Takuro Uehara

Dissertations and Theses

My dissertation develops and analyzes ecological economic models to study the complex dynamics of an ecological economic system (EES) and investigate various conditions and measures which can sustain a developing economy over the long term in view of resilience and sustainability. Because of the intrinsic complexity of the system, I take a systems approach, using economics as the foundation for the basic structure of an ecological economic model, and system dynamics as the method to build and analyze such a complex ecological economic model. Throughout my dissertation, the model developed by Brander and Taylor (1998) is adopted as a baseline …

A Strategic Model For Ingo Accountability Systems, Sarah Elizabeth Wardwell

Dissertations and Theses

This thesis reconstructs the concept of International Non-Governmental Organization (INGO) accountability to beneficiaries through the development of a strategic model for INGO accountability to beneficiaries. It works through the history and arguments surrounding the rise of the debate around whether INGOs should be held accountable to their beneficiary populations. Unique definitions are developed for the terms and concepts related to this topic and a framework for understanding the strategic model for INGO accountability to beneficiaries is outlined: Accountable to whom? Accountable for what? Accountable how? A practical example of an internal assessment for measuring an INGO's accountability to beneficiaries is …

An Economic Perspective On Preemption, Keith N. Hylton

Faculty Scholarship

This Essay has two goals. The first is to present an economic theory of preemption as a choice among regulatory regimes. The optimal regime choice model is used to generate specific implications for the court decisions on preemption of products liability claims. The second objective is to extrapolate from the regime choice model to consider its implications for broader controversies about preemption.

Managing The Economic Crisis In The Nonprofit Sector, Amy Ranae Costliow

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of the economic downturn on the nonprofit sector during 2009, 2010 and 2011. This study will also identify the strategies employed by nonprofit executives to navigate the current economic condition of the United States of America. The researcher compiled data from surveys distributed to nonprofit organizations in six cities across the nation during 2009, 2010 and 2011. After compiling the data collected the researcher utilized frequencies to examine how executive directors dealt with the economic downturn over the past three years. In addition the two way Chi Square was used …

Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy, Taehee Han

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

A key element of this dissertation is the examination of the regional and state level effects of monetary policy. The first essay compares two broad approaches to identifying the monetary policy shocks that are used to estimate the regional effects of monetary policy. One approach that has been used in the previous literature assumes that monetary policymakers respond to shocks to regional personal income but do not respond directly to shocks to national income. A second general approach assumes that monetary policymakers respond to shocks to national income but do not respond directly to region-specific income shocks. This assumption is …

Assessing Cost Efficiency And Economies Of Scale In The European Banking System, A Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Approach, Ana Maria Ichim

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Cost e_x000E_fficiency of banks is a key indicator that provides valuable insight to researchers and policymakers about the functioning of the _x000C_financial intermediation process, as well as, the overall performance of the entire financial system. This thesis focuses on the cost effi_x000E_ciency of the European banking market for which we identify fourteen nation-specific frontiers and also perform cross country comparisons under a common frontier assumption. Our interest in the subject is twofold. At the nation level, cost e_x000E_fficiency influences the relative competitiveness of banks, setting the profile of the national banking industry with direct implications on economic growth. At the …

Investigating The Role Of Genetic Variation In Long Run Economic Outcomes, Charles Justin Cook

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation empirically tests whether adaptations resulting from the Neolithic Revolution, or the widespread adoption of sedentary agriculture for sustenance, have led to economic differences. The development of sedentary agriculture constituted an environmen- tal shift from the previous sustenance method of hunting and gathering. This environmental shift resulted in the natural selection of certain traits. I seek to exploit differences in these traits to measure differing economic outcomes. Two main adaptations are considered in this work: the ability to consume milk, or lactose tolerance, and resistance to infectious Eurasian diseases, which is the result of genetic variation. The first essay …

Essays On Social Networks, Emre Unlu

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

The first chapter provides a way of evaluating a player's contribution to their team and relates their effort to their market values. We extend the work of Ballester et al. (2006) by incorporating a network outcome component in the players' payoff functions. As an illustration of the theory, we create a unique data set from the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament. To capture the interaction between players, we create the passing network of each team. This all allows us to identify the key player and key groups of players for both teams in each game. We then use our measure to …

Single Peakedness And Giffen Demand, Massimiliano Landi

Research Collection School Of Economics

I provide a simple example of a single peaked utility function that generates a Giffen demand. The utility function is smooth, non piecewise defined, strictly concave but not globally increasing. A full characterization of the parameter conditions under which the Giffen demand arises is provided. In addition the properties of the demand function are studied: I find that the inferior commodity with a Giffen demand must be cheaper relatively to a substitute and that Giffen demand arises at relatively low levels of income. However it is not required that the share of income spent on that commodity be large.

A Spatial Analysis Of The Italian Second Republic, Second Version, Massimiliano Landi, Ricardo Pelizzo

Research Collection School Of Economics

We apply the Optimal Classification method to a newly created dataset to provide a spatial map of the Italian Second Republic (1996-2008). We find a bi-dimensional political space in the XIII Legislature and virtually a one dimensional political space in the XIV and XV Legislatures. In addition, the main dimension is explained along the dimension government opposition rather than on the traditional left and right dimension. During the Second Republic, Italy experienced changes in electoral system and in the format of the parties. We use our data to discuss the implications of either change on the dimensionality space. We find …

One Mandarin Benefits The Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure And Nepotism In An Autocracy, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Quoc-Anh Do, Anh Tran

Research Collection School Of Economics

Duplicate record, see https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/soe_research/1383. This paper studies nepotism by government officials in an authoritarian regime. We collect a unique dataset of political promotions of officials in Vietnam and estimate their impact on public infrastructure in their hometowns. We find strong positive effects on several outcomes, some with lags, including roads to villages, marketplaces, clean water access, preschools, irrigation, and local radio broadcasters, as well as the hometown’s propensity to benefit from the State’s “poor commune support program”. Nepotism is not limited to only top-level officials, pervasive even among those without direct authority over hometown budgets, stronger when the hometown chairperson’s …

Pirates And Fishermen: Is Less Patrolling Always Bad?, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the Somali fishermen–pirates, I explore the time allocation decision of potential pirates between piracy and an alternative non-violent occupation, fishing, when the returns of both piracy and fishing are sensitive to patrolling intensity. For a range of parameters, the static model yields multiple equilibria, an “efficient” one with no patrolling and low piracy, a less efficient equilibrium with intermediate levels of both piracy and patrolling and a highly inefficient high-patrolling high-piracy equilibrium. Analyzing the dynamic analogue, I obtain the surprising result that sufficiently low patrolling can be a good strategy.

Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to …

One Mandarin Benefits The Whole Clan: Hometown Infrastructure And Nepotism In An Autocracy, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Quoc-Anh Do, Anh Tran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nepotism by government officials in an authoritarian regime. We collect a unique dataset of political promotions of officials in Vietnam and estimate their impact on public infrastructure in their hometowns. We find strong positive effects on several outcomes, some with lags, including roads to villages, marketplaces, clean water access, preschools, irrigation, and local radio broadcasters, as well as the hometown’s propensity to benefit from the State’s “poor commune support program”. Nepotism is not limited to only top-level officials, pervasive even among those without direct authority over hometown budgets, stronger when the hometown chairperson’s and promoted official’s ages …

Peer Transparency In Teams: Does It Help Or Hinder Incentives?, Parimal Bag, Nona Pepito

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a joint project involving two players of a two-round effort investment game with complementary efforts, transparency, by allowing players to observe each other's efforts, achieves at least as much, and sometimes more, collective and individual efforts relative to a nontransparent environment. Without transparency, multiple equilibria can arise, and transparency elimites the inferior equilibria. When full cooperation arises only under transparency, it occurs gradually: No worker sinks in the maximum amount of effort in the first round, preferring instead to smooth out contributions over time. If the players' efforts are substitutes, transparency makes no difference to equilibrium efforts.

An Institutional Perspective And The Role Of The State For Chinese Ofdi, Bing Ren, Hao Liang, Ying Zheng

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Napoleon called China a ‘sleeping dragon’, but recent economic developments as China enters the twenty-first century show that the dragon is awakening. China has maintained strong economic growth since 1979 and sustained a GDP increase of more than 9 percent over the years. The total volume of economic output increased from 2.8 percent in 1970 to 7.23 percent in 2008, ranking China as the third largest economy in the world (United Nation Statistics Division Statistical Databases). China launched its ‘Go Global’ policy in 1999 to encourage highperforming Chinese firms to invest abroad and upgrade their global competence. Since then, outward …