Economics Commons^™

Real-Time Forecasting, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

This chapter will discuss real-time forecasting in a macroeconomic policy context. I will begin by talking about the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a survey of private-sector forecasters. Next, I will discuss research on real-time data analysis and its importance in forecasting. Finally, I will discuss real-time forecasting in the 1990s.

Institutional Divergence In Economic Development, Jonathan B. Wight

Economics Faculty Publications

The Anglo-American capitalist model (AACM) encompasses a set of theories and policies that advance the classical objectives of individual autonomy, wealth acquisition, and economic growth. In the twentieth century, the neoclassical goal of short-run Pareto efficiency was added yet remains in possible tension with these other aims. The AACM generally upholds the primacy of markets as the means for achieving its normative ideals through private, decentralized actions, with some exceptions. In the modern political arena this ideology is associated with the Reagan-Thatcher revolution of the 1980s and provides a framework for many who oppose statist solutions to social problems (Steger …

The Disconnect Between Employer Costs And Employee Value, Kevin F. Hallock

Economics Faculty Publications

There is a tremendous disconnect between the cost of compensation to employers and the value employees place on that compensation. Companies pay a lot more for workers than workers see in their paychecks. The average worker in the US costs his/her employee $29.52 per hour. But only $20.50 of that appeared in the worker's paycheck as wage and salary. The other $8.96 is attributable to other employer costs that employees do not immediately see. Of the $8.96, $2.04 is for paid leave, $0.71 is for supplemental pay, $2.60 is for insurance, $1.31 is for retirement savings, and $2.30 is for …

Redesigning Global Trade Institutions, John Linarelli

Scholarly Works

This is a draft of an essay for the symposium, 2021: International Law Ten Years from Now, held by the Southwestern Journal of International Law in cooperation with the International Law Association (American Branch) Weekend West. The essay deals with two questions. First, what is to be of the WTO and world trade institutions generally? It examines the rise of regionalism in international trade agreements and possible roles for variable geometry for the WTO. The essay critiques proposals to move towards (or back to) plurilateralism for the WTO. Second, what should trade agreements do? This question goes to the core …

Cps, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Wage Equivalents (WEQ) and Sectoral Account Inquiries, by A. Shaikh (2010, August 24). Personal communication.
• Income and Outlays of Households and of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households, by C. I. Mead, C. P. McCully, and M. B. Reinsdorf (2003, April). Survey of Current Business, 83(4), 13–17. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts, by N. Mayerhauser and M. Reinsdorf (2007, September 11). Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Measurement of Gross Operating Surplus (GOS), by A. Shaikh (2009). Unpublished manuscript.
• Gross Operating Surplus, Imputed Interest, and Measures of Profitability, by …

Estimating Kg, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Route 91,841 Estimating KG, by A. Shaikh (2000, November 12). Unpublished manuscript.
• Figure 4: Nominal Depletion Rates (Based on BEA 1993 Data), by A. Shaikh (2006, October 10). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect of Initial Points on KGC Estimates (BEA 1993 vs. Gorman SCB 1985), by A. Shaikh (2011, March 9). Unpublished manuscript.
• Chapter 7: Measurement of Profit, Capital and the Rate of Profit, by A. Shaikh (2011, March 9). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect Sudden Retirement KGH and KHN, by A. Shaikh (2010, July 25). Unpublished manuscript.
• Effect of Initial Values on Corp Nonfin KG …

Inet Ii Bretton Woods, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• INET Event Office. (2011, March 11). Inet 2011 conference confirmation (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 9).
• INET Event Office. (2011, April 4). Inet logistics (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 2).
• Amtrak. (2011, April 4). Reservation confirmation - this is not a ticket (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 12).
• Fetko, M. (2011, April 4). Re: lodging at bretton woods for anwar shaikh (Email) (23-10_INET... p. 6).

A Time Series Investigation Of The Impact Of Corporate And Personal Current Taxes On Economic Growth In The U.S., Peter J. Saunders

Economics Faculty Scholarship

This paper investigates the impact of corporate income taxes and personal current taxes on economic growth. Time-series tests analyzing the relationship between corporate taxes and nonresidential investment are implemented. Also tests of the impact of personal current taxes on the labor supply, approximated by the average weekly overtime hours in manufacturing, are undertaken. These tests include cointegration, vector error correction (VEC) estimation, and Granger causality testing of the relevant time-series data. Cointegration tests indicate the existence of a stable long run relationship between corporate taxes and nonresidential investment. Further investigation of this relationship is undertaken within the VEC testing framework. …

Beyond The American Dream : Tales Of Hispanic Mutimillionaires Who Rose Above Poverty After Immigrating To The United States, Ricardo Norton

Dissertations

Problem. A review of the literature on Hispanics reveals the absence of academic studies on the conditions and life experiences that helped poor Hispanic immigrants become multimillionaires after arriving to the U.S. at 18 years of age and older and without conversational English. Most Hispanic immigrants live in poverty right after arriving to the U.S. and only a few become multimillionaires. A study on how they rose above poverty has the potential to uncovering useful information for other poor immigrants who are still looking who seek financial success. Such study will also add to the larger body of literature information …

Analysis Of Two-Year Colleges: Transfer, Retention And Graduation, Darshak P. Patel

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

Investment in higher education is typically considered as a static discrete-choice problem where students make post-secondary education choices usually right after high school (Heckman et al., 2006). This is largely aligned with Becker’s human capital theory. As Becker’s theory holds, students’ decisions can alter with the arrival of new information (Weisbrod, 1964). By relaxing the assumption certainty in the human capital model, student education decisions can be modeled using Weisbrod’s option value theory. According to this theory, students reevaluate their lifetime-utility maximizing decisions based on new information acquired in a sequential nature. Students face large uncertainties due to unexpected positive …

The Effects Of Minimum Salaries On Firm Tenure, Career Length, And The Experience Distribution: Evidence From The National Football League, Johnny C. Ducking

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

I use data from the National Football League (NFL) to analyze the impact of minimum salaries on an employee’s firm tenure, an employee’s career length, and an employer’s distribution of employee experience. The NFL has a salary structure in which the minimum salary a player can receive increases with the player’s years of experience. Salary schedules similar to the NFL’s exist in public education, Secret Service, Internal Revenue Service, other federal government agencies, the Episcopalian church, and unionized industries. Even though the magnitude of the salaries in the NFL differs from other industries, this study provides insight to the impact …

From Programmatic Reform To Social Science Research: The National Tax Association And The Promise And Perils Of Disciplinary Encounters, Ajay K. Mehrotra, Joseph J. Thorndike

Articles by Maurer Faculty

This article uses the history of the National Tax Association (NTA), the leading twentieth-century organization of tax professionals, to strengthen our empirical understanding of the disciplinary encounter between law and the social sciences. Building on existing sociolegal scholarship, this article explores how the NTA embodied tax law's ambivalent historical interaction with public economics. Since its founding in 1907, the NTA has changed dramatically from an eclectic and catholic organization of tax professionals with a high public profile to an insular, scholarly association of mainly academic public finance economists. Using a mix of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we contend that …

Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression And Quantile Regression To Test The Capital Asset Pricing Model And The Fama And French Model In The Australian Equity Market, Yixaun Rui

Theses : Honours

Many studies have tested the CAPM and the Fama and French model in the Australian security market using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. However, this regression method just focuses on the relationship between means in the dataset, and equity market usually has some extreme situations in the tails. In this study, quantile regression will be used as well as OLS to provide a more comprehensive picture. This research will also compare the domestic and overseas indices in testing the CAPM and the Fama and French model. A twenty-year data sample composed of the 50 largest companies' equity returns will …

How Short And Long Term Interdependencies Have Changed Due To The Global Financial Crisis, Lungowe Andala

Theses : Honours

This study investigates how short and long term interdependencies have changed among ten countries grouped into countries from the same region (close geographical proximity) as a result of the recent Global Financial Crisis. A number of econometrics methodologies are employed in doing the analysis. Johansen's cointegration methodology is carried out to assess whether the stock markets have long run interdependencies and whether these interdependencies have changed as a result of the Global Financial Crisis. For the stock markets not cointegrated Granger Causality is carried out to analyze short run interdependencies between pairs of stock markets. Furthermore, generalized Impulse Response Function …

Essays On Income Volatility And Individual Well-Being, Bradley L. Hardy

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

My dissertation consists of three essays in which I document trends in earnings and income volatility, estimate potential causal mechanisms for changing volatility, and examine the long-term consequences of parental income volatility for children. In essay 2 I document trends in earnings and income volatility of individuals and families using matched data in the March Current Population survey from 1973 to 2009. Essay 3 advances the literature on volatility, using matched data from the CPS to identify demographic and labor market correlates of earnings volatility within education-birth year cohorts. This study collapses the cross-sectional CPS into a pseudo-panel and then …

Quantifying The Impacts Of The 2007 Economic Crisis On A Local Tourism Industry And Regional Economy, Yun Ying Zhong

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of the study is to explore the accuracy of the Input-Output model and its derivative, the Occupation-Based model in investigating the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on the tourism-related industries and the local economy in the Metro Orlando Area, Florida. The 2007-2008 total visitor expenditure change is taken as an initial shock from the economic crisis on the region's tourism-related industries, and the total impacts are measured in terms of industry output (sales), employment and annual occupational wage. The estimation results are compared with the actual data to verify the accuracy of the modeling results. Paired-sample T …

The Impact Of Continuing Education Modules On The Moral Obligations And Responsibilities Of Financial Advisors, Sandy Modell

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Increased life expectancies and a significant reduction in the number of corporate pension plans nationwide have made the prospects of retirement a challenge for many of us. The burden of funding retirement will move from the corporation or government to the individual. Those individuals with limited financial experience will most likely need the guidance of a financial advisor. Can we trust and rely upon them? Following the 2004 late trading scandal and the 2008 financial meltdown, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") implemented Continuing Education requirements at the advisor level. The intent was to improve the quality and integrity of …

Local Economic Development: Researching Clusters In Woodford County, Kentucky, Tom Middleton

MPA/MPP/MPFM Capstone Projects

Woodford Tomorrow, a citizen economic development planning group in Woodford County, is interested in promoting cluster development. Clusters are a geographic concentration of businesses and institutions which interact and collaborate within a particular economic sector. This report provides quantitative analysis of three clusters: (1) health, (2) agriculture, and (3) arts, entertainment, and tourism. The majority of this data comes from the consulting firm Economic Modeling Specialists Inc.

The agriculture cluster has many industries, specifically in the crop and animal production and manufacturing sectors, which appear to be potential industries to target. The hotel and motel industry seems to be an …

The Happiness Of Single Mothers After Welfare Reform, John Ifcher

Economics

U.S. welfare and tax policies targeting single mothers were transformed over a decade ago. What was the impact on single mothers' happiness? Using data from the General Social Survey, difference in difference estimators are calculated. The results appear to indicate that the package of welfare and tax policy changes increased happiness. The results are largely consistent across three comparison groups and robust to various specification checks. This research nicely complements the literature by examining the impact of the welfare and tax policy changes on a novel outcome measure, self-reported happiness.

Advances In Economic Forecasting, Matthew L. Higgins Editor

Upjohn Press

This book's contributors assess the performance of economic forecasting methods, argue that data can be better exploited through model and forecast combination, and advocate for models that are adaptive and perform well in the presence of nonlinearity and structural change. The contributors are: Michael D. Bradley, Dean Croshure, Dennis W. Jansen, Kajal Lahiri, Tae-Hwy Lee, David E. Rapach, and H.O. Stekler.

Longevity Policy: Facing Up To Longevity Issues Affecting Social Security, Pensions, And Older Workers, John A. Turner

Upjohn Press

Turner argues that public policy should recognize longevity policy as a distinct policy area. Rather than separately treating issues raised by life expectancy (e.g., Social Security, pensions, older workers), a unified approach should be developed that recognizes their interrelationship.

The Transformation Of The American Pension System: Was It Beneficial For Workers?, Edward N. Wolff

Upjohn Press

The share of Americans with defined contribution pension plans now exceeds the share of those with defined benefit plans. Wolff refers to this as the "great transformation" and it leads him to examine recent evidence to see whether there are winners and losers resulting from this switch away from traditional pension plans.

Imagining The Ideal Pension System: International Perspectives, Dana M. Muir Editor, John A. Turner Editor

Upjohn Press

Muir and Turner gather an international roster of pension experts who present what they think would be the ideal pension systems for their countries and why. Those countries include the United States, the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Germany, Belgium, France, Switzerland, Poland, and Japan.

The Workforce Investment Act: Implementation Experiences And Evaluation Findings, Douglas J. Besharov Editor, Phoebe H. Cottingham Editor

Upjohn Press

This volume examines WIA’s objectives and the evidence on program performance and impact. The chapters are organized into five general areas: 1) understanding WIA, 2) program implementation, 3) performance management, 4) impact evaluations, and 5) future evaluation choices.

Rulc/Rxr Update, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Notes on cointegration testing procedures for exchange rate models — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated December 2, 2011.
• Notes on OECD aggregate weighting and lag-selection criteria — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, undated.
• Explaining long term exchange rate behavior in the United States and Japan — Shaikh, A., and Antonopoulos, R. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 250, published 1998. This copy is a later revised version with data updated through 2008; the revision itself is undated.
• My XR theory: short run adjustments — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated …

Public Investment And Economic Growth In El Paso, Azucena Gonzalez Monzon

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This research focuses on the impact from public capital stock on economic growth in El Paso, Texas. A time series analysis is used to gauge the dynamic relationship between public infrastructure and the productivity of this city's economy. An Error Correction model and a Vector Error Correction model are utilized to discover short-run and long-run impacts from public capital stock on the growth of this particular economy. The Vector Autoregressive model is used to determine causality amongst the variables and to determine the structure of this economy. This research finds that public infrastructure growth actually follows economic growth and private …

Impact Of Science And Engineering Graduates On Key Economic Indicators, Nathaniel V. Robinson

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

There are clear trends in the USA with regard to a stagnant growth in science and engineering, particularly engineering, and in greater contrast when considered per capita. Meanwhile certain Asian counties, such as China and Taiwan, have experienced growth in science and engineering graduates beyond mere population growth. This has caught the eye of alarmists and so discussions have ensued over offshoring, national security, economic loss and future impact in the United States. Alarmists and proponents of policies promoting more science, engineering and math have pointed out the trends in overseas growth and US offshoring with a flurry of statistics …

The Second-Generation Effects Of Microcredit In Western Guatemala, Jordyn Elizabeth Haught

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Most microfinance institutions have assumed that positive second-generation effects follow involvement in microcredit, but the nature of these effects has been unclear since few scholars have directly focused their attention on them. To address this gap in the literature I conducted exploratory survey research in Western Guatemala in January 2011. I returned with 97 interviews conducted with 68 Guatemalans who had received a microloan at some point in their lives, and 29 who had never received a formal loan. In the sample of their 306 children, the parents of 94 had never received a loan, while the parents of 212 …

Residential Electricity Demand In Seattle, David Alan Juarez

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This study examines residential electricity demand for the Seattle City Light (SCL) public utility market. SCL is interesting because all of its electricity is generated through hydro-electric facilities as well as its purchased power, mostly through contracts with the Bonneville Power Administration, resulting in below-average residential electricity prices. An error-correction model is estimated using annual time series data. Income, price, and climate data are used to identify both economic and seasonal effects. In addition, a customer equation is also estimated using the error-correction approach. The income-elasticity is negative indicating that electricity is an inferior good in this market. Out-of-sample forecasts …

The Relationship Between Divided Government And Real Per Capita Gross State Product, Adrian Christopher Villasenor

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This paper analyzes the relationship between divided government and real per capita gross state product in U.S. states using a panel study of data from all of the contiguous U.S. states, except Nebraska, for the period of 1990 to 2007. Some literature can be found on the relationship between divided government and economic growth at the national level. There is a lack of study of this relationship at the state level. Real per capita gross state product is the dependent variable in this study. Divided government, partisan control of the governor's office, partisan control of the state legislature, combined federal …