Economics Commons^™

Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word-Of-Mouth Effects In The Holdings And Trades Of Money Managers, Jeffrey D. Kubik, Harrison Hong, Jeremy Stein

Economics - All Scholarship

A mutual-fund manager is more likely to hold (or buy, or sell) a particular stock in any quarter if other managers in the same city are holding (or buying, or selling) that same stock. This pattern shows up even when controlling for the distance between the fund manager and the stock in question, so it is distinct from a local-preference effect. It is also robust to a variety of controls for investment styles. These results can be interpreted in terms of an epidemic model in which investors spread information about stocks to one another by word of mouth.

Can Policy Changes Be Treated As Natural Experiments? Evidence From Cigarette Excise Taxes, Jeffrey D. Kubik, John R. Moran

Economics - All Scholarship

An important issue in public policy analysis is the potential endogeneity of the policies under study. We examine the extent to which such political endogeneity biases estimates of behavioral parameters by identifying the elasticity of demand for cigarettes using the timing of state legislative elections as an instrument for changes in cigarette excise taxes. We find sizable differences between our estimates and those cited in Chaloupka and Warner (2000), which treat cigarette taxes as exogenous. Our results add to a growing body of evidence that policy changes may be codetermined with the outcomes they are thought to influence.

An ‘Ation’ Not A ‘Nation’: The Globalisation Of World Politics, Richard Woodward

Books/Book Chapters

No abstract provided.

A National Policy Study On Child Labour And Development In The Philippines, Fernando T. Aldaba, Leonardo A. Lanzona Jr, Ronald J. Tamangan

Economics Department Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

A Comparative Analysis Of Growing And Declining Regions In Central Illinois, Clifford M. Cross

All-Inclusive List of Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Economic development is the development of tools and programs to promote growth within a specific geographic location. In today's society, the need for economic development is extremely important because the loss of the traditional family farm has changed the landscape of the labor force that currently exists throughout the United States. In addition, a continued pattern of rural to urban migration, of America's educated youth, has contributed to the overall decline of the skilled labor force that exists throughout small rural communities. Furthermore, economic development professionals need to develop tools, programs and practices that create un-skilled, semi-skilled, and skilled employment …

Two New Proofs Of Afriat's Theorem, Ana Fostel, Herbert E. Scarf, Michael J. Todd

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide two new, simple proofs of Afriat’s celebrated theorem stating that a finite set of price-quantity observations is consistent with utility maximization if, and only if, the observations satisfy a variation of the Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference known as the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference.

Robust Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The mechanism design literature assumes too much common knowledge of the environment among the players and planner. We relax this assumption by studying implementation on richer type spaces. We ask when ex post implementation is equivalent to interim (or Bayesian) implementation for all possible type spaces. The equivalence holds in the case of separable environments; examples of separable environments arise (1) when the planner is implementing a social choice function (not correspondence); and (2) in a quasilinear environment with no restrictions on transfers. The equivalence fails in general, including in some quasilinear environments with budget balance. In private value environments, …

On Houseswapping, The Strict Core, Segmentation, And Linear Programming, Thomas Quint, Jun Wako

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider the n-player houseswapping game of Shapley-Scarf (1974), with indifferences in preferences allowed. It is well-known that the strict core of such a game may be empty, single-valued, or multivalued. We define a condition on such games called “segmentability”, which means that the set of players can be partitioned into a “top trading segmentation.” It generalizes Gale’s well-known idea of the partition of players into “top trading cycles” (which is used to find the unique strict core allocation in the model with no indifference). We prove that a game has a nonempty strict core if and only if it …

Consistent Estimation With A Large Number Of Weak Instruments, John C. Chao, Norman R. Swanson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper conducts a general analysis of the conditions under which consistent estimation can be achieved in instrumental variables regression when the available instruments are weak in the local-to-zero sense. More precisely, the approach adopted in this paper combines key features of the local-to-zero framework of Staiger and Stock (1997) and the many-instrument framework of Morimune (1983) and Bekker (1994) and generalizes both of these frameworks in the following ways. First, we consider a general local-to-zero framework which allows for an arbitrary degree of instrument weakness by modeling the first-stage coefficients as shrinking toward zero at an unspecified rate, say …

Alternative Approximations Of The Bias And Mse Of The Iv Estimator Under Weak Identification With An Application To Bias Correction, John C. Chao, Norman R. Swanson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide analytical formulae for the asymptotic bias (ABIAS) and mean squared error (AMSE) of the IV estimator, and obtain approximations thereof based on an asymptotic scheme which essentially requires the expectation of the first stage F -statistic to converge to a finite (possibly small) positive limit as the number of instruments approaches infinity. The approximations so obtained are shown, via regression analysis, to yield good approximations for ABIAS and AMSE functions, and the AMSE approximation is shown to perform well relative to the approximation of Donald and Newey (2001). Additionally, the manner in which our framework generalizes that of …

Structure, Clearinghouses And Symmetry, Martin Shubik, Eric Smith

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We introduce and justify a taxonomy for the structure of markets and minimal institutions which appear in constructing minimally complex trading structures to perform the functions of price formation, settlement and payments. Each structure is presented as a playable strategic market game and is examined for its efficiency, the number of degrees of freedom and the symmetry properties of the structure.

Strategic Freedom, Constraint And Symmetry In One-Period Markets With Cash And Credit Payment, Martin Shubik, Eric Smith

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In order to explain in a systematic way why certain combinations of market, financial, and legal structures may be intrinsic to certain capabilities to exchange real goods, we introduce criteria for abstracting the qualitative functions of markets. The criteria involve the number of strategic freedoms the combined institutions, considered as formalized strategic games, present to traders, the constraints they impose, and the symmetry with which those constraints are applied to the traders. We pay particular attention to what is required to make these “strategic market games” well-defined, and to make various solutions computable by the agents within the bounds on …

Robust Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The mechanism design literature assumes too much common knowledge of the environment among the players and planner. We relax this assumption by studying implementation on richer type spaces, with more higher order uncertainty. We study the “ex post equivalence” question: when is interim implementation on all possible type spaces equivalent to requiring ex post implementation on the space of payoff types? We show that ex post equivalence holds when the social choice correspondence is a function and in simple quasi-linear environments. When ex post equivalence holds, we identify how large the type space must be to obtain the equivalence. We …

Moral Hazard, Hanming Fang, Giuseppe Moscarini

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We interpret workers’ confidence in their own skills as their morale, and investigate the implication of worker overconfidence on the firm’s optimal wage-setting policies. In our model, wage contracts both provide incentives and affect worker morale, by revealing private information of the firm about worker skills. We provide conditions for the non-differentiation wage policy to be profit-maximizing. In numerical examples, worker overconfidence is a necessary condition for the firm to prefer no wage differentiation, so as to preserve some workers’ morale; the non-differentiation wage policy itself breeds more worker overconfidence; finally, wage compression is more likely when aggregate productivity is …

Multidimensional Private Value Auctions, Hanming Fang, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider parametric examples of two-bidder private value auctions in which each bidder observes her own private valuation as well as noisy signals about her opponent’s private valuation. In such multidimensional private value auction environments, we show that the revenue equivalence between the first and second price auctions breaks down and there is no definite revenue ranking; while the second price auction is always efficient allocatively, the first price auction may be inefficient and the inefficiency may increase as the signal becomes more informative; equilibria may fail to exist for the first price auction. We also show that auction mechanisms …

Fundamental R&D Spillovers And The Internationalization Of A Firm's Research Activities, Bernard Franck, Robert Owen

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A conceptual framework is proposed for analyzing how differences in national R&D stocks can impact on a firm’s decision to internationalize its R&D activities. A central finding is that the integration of product markets can generate an added incentive to undertake R&D abroad. A three-stage analysis of a non-cooperative game is proposed, which entails cost-reducing process innovation in an international model of duopoly. Each firm’s technological efficiency depends not only on its investment in applied R&D, but also on its absorption of domestic and foreign fundamental R&D, as well as the extent to which the latter are substitutes or complements. …

Review Of "The World Bank, A Case For Aid: Building A Consensus For Development Assistance," By James D. Wolfensohn & Nicolas Stern, Bryan Erickson

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] "The World Bank’s new book, A Case for Aid: Building a Consensus for Development Assistance, indicates how dramatic and lasting the progress against global poverty has been in the past 50 years. It also shows how dramatically the Bank’s own understanding has risen, even in the past decade, of how to make its efforts more effective in relieving poverty and achieving other development goals. These two themes form the basis for the World Bank’s visionary thesis: that eradicating much of the poverty, ill health, and illiteracy around the world is within reach.

The occasion for pronouncing this message in …

International Economic Convergence: Measuring Economic Growth And Income Inequality From 1975-1999, Brian Kent Smedley

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

As the world continues to be reshaped by technological advances and globalization, national borders are rapidly dissolving. Nations that are many thousands of miles away now seem closer than ever due to modern technology and transportation. The world has experienced tremendous progress and economic growth in the last few decades, and today people in many countries enjoy a higher standard of living than the world's citizens have ever known. Yet despite all that we have accomplished as a human society, somehow we are still unable to solve the most fundamental problem facing humanity: relieving the poverty and misfortune of billions …

The Productivity Consequences Of Two Ergonomic Interventions, Kelly Derango, Benjamin C. Amick, Michelle Robertson, Ted Rooney, Anne Moore, Lianna Bazzani

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Pre- and post-intervention data on health outcomes, absenteeism, and productivity from a longitudinal, quasi-experimental design field study of office workers was used to evaluate the economic consequences of two ergonomic interventions. Researchers assigned individuals in the study to three groups: a group that received an ergonomically designed chair and office ergonomics training; a group that received office ergonomics training only; and a control group. The results show that while training alone has neither a statistically significant effect on health nor productivity, the chair-with-training intervention substantially reduced pain and improved productivity. Neither intervention affected sick leave hours.

Holding To Basics And Investing For Growth: Cuban Education And The Economic Crisis Of The 1990’S, Miren Uriarte

Gastón Institute Publications

Since the middle of the 1980’s, processes of economic restructuring have led to large changes in the landscape of educational and social policy in most of Latin America. Faced with severe economic crisis, Latin American nations have sought structural transformations that have redefined the role of government in the provision of social benefits and sharply reduced expenditures through wholesale privatization and deep reductions in remaining government-sponsored programs. Between 1980 and 1990, expenditures in education as a percent of total government expenditures fell in most countries in Latin America, affecting especially public education, the only recourse for the poor. By 1996, …

Personal Financial Planning Online Course, Camille Olsen

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

My main interest in the financial field is Personal Financial Planning, which has just been developing over the past few years in the finance industry. Utah State University has been a pioneer in this area, and now offers a minor in personal financial planning through the accounting department. The courses offered fulfill the educational requirements needed to take the CFP (Certified Financial Planner) exam. This designation can be compared to the CPA (Certified Public Accountant) in the accounting field. Therefore, the College of Business has decided to offer these courses online so that students and professionals throughout the state can …

Currency Substitution, Seigniorage, And Currency Crises In Interdependent Economies, Joseph P. Daniels, David D. Vanhoose

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

This paper applies a two-country framework that allows for currency substitution in an environment in which policymakers optimally vary interest rates in light of utility-based objectives, one country pegs the value of its currency to the other nation’s currency, and government revenue is generated via explicit taxes and seigniorage. The analysis illustrates the roles that currency substitution, currency preferences, and efficiency of tax systems play in contributing to the likelihood of a “run” on one nation’s currency. We explore how these factors interact to influence the probability of a currency crisis in the country that fixes its exchange rate.

The Long-Run Behavior And Short-Run Dynamics Of Private Savings In Morocco, Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, Abdur Chowdhury

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

The paper examines the trend in private savings in Morocco in the presence of financial sector development by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework. Specifically, the hypothesis that there is stable relationship between the level of private savings and its determinants including a measure of financial reform is investigated. The statistical results provide evidence in favor of a long-run relationship between private savings and most of its determinants. More importantly, the financial reform index, as measured by financial depth, is found to have a positive impact on the level of private savings. This indicates that the financial reform program …

Attraction Visitors In Custer Country Travel Region, Norma P. Nickerson, Bethany Sutton, Jim Wilton

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

The analysis of visitors to attractions in Custer Country provides reasons for visiting the region, activities engaged in, attractions visited, information sources, and demographic profiles of the travel group. Marketing suggestions are provided based on visitor profiles.

Attraction Visitors In Missouri River Country Travel Region, Norma P. Nickerson, Bethany Sutton, Jim Wilton

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

The analysis of visitors to attractions in Missouri River Country provides reasons for visiting the region, activities engaged in, attractions visited, information sources, and demographic profiles of the travel group. Marketing suggestions are provided based on visitor profiles.

Attraction Visitors In Gold West Country Travel Region, Norma P. Nickerson, Bethany Sutton, Jim Wilton

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

The analysis of visitors to attractions in Gold West Country provides reasons for visiting the region, activities engaged in, attractions visited, information sources, and demographic profiles of the travel group. Marketing suggestions are provided based on visitor profiles.

Determinants Of Voluntary Job-To-Job Mobility, Xiaolin Xing, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores both observable and unobservable variables that would affect employed workers’ decisions on job change. A survey was conducted through one-to-one interviews, and the sample consists of 965 full-time employed workers. The logistic regression models are employed to analyze the two binary measures of job-to-job mobility: i) whether an individual is considering a job change, and ii) whether an individual is actively looking for another job. We find that age, job satisfaction, satisfaction with working environment or job security, and firm size are among the major factors determining workers’ job-to-job mobility. Younger workers and workers in smaller firms …

Factors Influencing Treatment Patterns In Breast Cancer Patients Age 75 And Over, Arti Hurria, Denis H. Y. Leung, Kathleen Trainor, Patrick Borgen, Larry Norton, Clifford Hudis

Research Collection School Of Economics

To retrospectively determine the factors influencing treatment decisions in older breast cancer patients at a single center. Experimental Design: 216 patients age > or = 75 seen in post-treatment follow-up between January, 1997 and June, 2000 were identified in the Memorial Sloan-Kettering breast cancer database. Eligible patients were > or = 75 years old at diagnosis, had a diagnosis of stage I, II, or III breast cancer, and received their follow-up care at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. A retrospective chart review was performed. Patients were stratified by: (1) prognostic factors (age (75-79 or > or = 80), Charlson comorbidity score, tumor size, …

Catch-Up Growth Based On International Talent Mobility In An Idea-Based World, Yu Quan, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show how catch-up growth can result when immigrant ties of talented people to their home countries facilitate technology diffusion from world technological leaders to developing countries. The aspect of immigrant link we focus on is knowledge spillover through various programs of international exchange to draw upon the expertise of the individuals who have migrated—a type of externality effect on the home country. In our model, we distinguish between public technology and private technology, both of which differ across countries. The size of the talent pool in each country determines the number of skilled workers and indigenous technology levels. The …

Early Stopping By Using Stochastic Curtailment In A Three-Arm Sequential Trial, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang, David Amar

Research Collection School Of Economics

Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when …