Economics Commons^™

Prewhitening Bias In Hac Estimation, Donggyu Sul, Peter C.B. Phillips, Chi-Young Choi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

HAC estimation commonly involves the use of prewhitening filters based on simple autoregressive models. In such applications, small sample bias in the estimation of autoregressive coefficients is transmitted to the recoloring filter, leading to HAC variance estimates that can be badly biased. The present paper provides an analysis of these issues using asymptotic expansions and simulations. The approach we recommend involves the use of recursive demeaning procedures that mitigate the effects of small sample autoregressive bias. Moreover, a commonly-used restriction rule on the prewhitening estimates (that first order autoregressive coefficient estimates, or largest eigenvalues, greater than 0.97 be replaced by …

Long Run Variance Estimation Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation, Peter C.B. Phillips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A new class of kernel estimates is proposed for long run variance (LRV) and heteroskedastic autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation. The kernels are called steep origin kernels and are related to a class of sharp origin kernels explored by the authors (2003) in other work. They are constructed by exponentiating a mother kernel (a conventional lag kernel that is smooth at the origin) and they can be used without truncation or bandwidth parameters. When the exponent is passed to infinity with the sample size, these kernels produce consistent LRV/HAC estimates. The new estimates are shown to have limit normal distributions, and …

On The Empirical Content Of Quantal Response Equilibrium, Philip A. Haile, Ali Hortaçsu, Grigory Kosenok

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The quantal response equilibrium (QRE) notion of McKelvey and Palfrey (1995) has recently attracted considerable attention, due largely to its widely documented ability to rationalize observed behavior in games played by experimental subjects. We show that this ability to fit the data, as typically measured in this literature, is uninformative. Without a priori distributional assumptions, a QRE can match any distribution of behavior by each player in any normal form game. We discuss approaches that might be taken to provide valid empirical evaluation of the QRE and discuss its potential value as an approximating empirical structure.

Risk And Wealth In A Model Of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks, Bernardo Guimarães, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Market participants’ risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition influence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important effects on the sustainability of currency pegs. We analyze such effects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices. The model, solved in closed form, generates a rich set of theoretical predictions consistent with many popular and academic (unmodelled) speculations about the onset and timing of currency crises. The results extend linearly to a heterogeneous agent population.

Incidental Trends And The Power Of Panel Unit Root Tests, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Benoit Perron, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The asymptotic local powers of various panel unit root tests are investigated. The power envelope is obtained under homogeneous and heterogeneous alternatives. It is compared with asymptotic power functions of the pooled t -test, the Ploberger–Phillips (2002) test, and a point optimal test in neighborhoods of unity that are of order n –1/ 4 T –1 and n –1/ 2 T –1 , depending on whether or not incidental trends are extracted from the panel data. In the latter case, when the alternative hypothesis is homogeneous across individuals, it is shown that the point optimal test and Ploberger–Phillips test both …

Bias In Dynamic Panel Estimation With Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends And Cross Section Dependence, Peter C.B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Explicit asymptotic bias formulae are given for dynamic panel regression estimators as the cross section sample size N → ∞. The results extend earlier work by Nickell (1981) and later authors in several directions that are relevant for practical work, including models with unit roots, deterministic trends, predetermined and exogenous regressors, and errors that may be cross sectionally dependent. The asymptotic bias is found to be so large when incidental linear trends are fitted and the time series sample size is small that it changes the sign of the autoregressive coefficient. Another finding of interest is that, when there is …

Foreign Private Investment In Nigeria - 2002, Division Research Statistics Department

Economic and Financial Review

This report presents the results of the survey on foreign private investment in Nigeria in 2002. The survey covered 254 establishments that are either fully foreign owned or are in partnership with Nigerian agencies or enterprises doing business in Nigeria. The net flow of foreign investment into the Nigerian economy rose by 143 per cent from N3,377.0 million in 2001 to N8,206.8 million in 2002. The analyses of the survey returns are presented in eight parts.

Promoting Savings And Investment Culture For National Development, O. J. Nnanna

Economic and Financial Review

The paper examined the performance of Nigeria's savings and investment profile relative to some selected economies of the world. It noted that the fundamental issues militating against an effective savings and investment culture in Nigeria has remained, financial sector distress, high inflationary expectation, low yield on investments and inappropriate institutional structures. Amongst the various efforts being made to enhance savings and investment culture in Nigeria, the paper identified the recently introduced National Savings Certificate ( NSC) as a key investment window for the low income group with attractive yield and thus, a strong alternative to bank deposits, the proposed pension …

Rationale Behind Oil, Gas, And Electricity Industries Reforms: Is There A Consistency By Mohammad Mazraati Et Al. (22nd Annual North American Conference Of The Usaee/Iaee, 2002) - A Review, I. S. Abdullahi

Economic and Financial Review

The paper investigated the main rationale behind the energy industry reforms. It also sought to examine the relationship between inter-industry reforms and ascertain the soundness of the rationale as well as their consistencies. The paper was structured into six sections opening with an introduction. Sections two, three and four reviewed reforms in the oil, electricity and gas industries, respectively. Section five discussed the performance against expectation while section six presented the concluding remarks.

A Review Of Nigeria’S Exchange Rate Policies Since Deregulation In 1986, External Sector Division

Economic and Financial Review

This article examined foreign exchange policy measures adopted since 1986. Nigeria's economic policy prior to 1986 was characterized by the overwhelming influence of oil and public sector dominance of productive activities. Prior to this period, the economy faced serious crisis and was characterized by an over-valued currency, low oil receipts, depleted external reserves and high import bills, emergence of trade arrears and rapid accumulation of debts. The various measures adopted were aimed at restructuring the economy and diversifying its revenue base, as well as achieving a realistic exchange rate for the naira. An appraisal of these exchange rate policies indicated …

Unshackling The Private Sector In West Africa: Regional Integration And Macroeconomic Perspectives By Addison, E. K. Y. (West African Journal Of Monetary And Economic Integration, Vol. 1, No. 2 December 2001), Raliat A. Ojibara

Economic and Financial Review

The private sector is noted to be more efficient than the public sector in terms of ownership, allocation and productive efficiencies based on empirical and theoretical studies thus the objective of the paper centered on the need to explain the problems of the private sector in West Africa and how regional monetary integration could alleviate some of them. The paper is structured into five sections namely; Section one looks at the theoretical perspective of the efficiency of the private sector, Section two traced the evolution of macroeconomic policies viz-a-viz economic development in the West African Monetary Zone {WAMZ), Section three …

Family Businesses' Contribution To The U.S. Economy: A Closer Look, Joseph H. Astrachan, Melissa Carey Shanker

Faculty Articles

In 1995, we were commissioned to conduct research on the impact of family businesses on the U.S. economy. A search of all relevant research led to the conclusion that the majority of existing data relating to family businesses' economic contributions were not grounded in empirical research, and the definitions used to distinguish family businesses from other enterprises were ambiguous or nonexistent. In 1996, we published a paper providing a framework for assessing the economic impact of family businesses across three ranges, defined by the degree of family involvement in the businesses. This paper revisits that research and updates and improves …

The State Of The Region: Hampton Roads 2003, James V. Koch, Aditi Agarwal, Vinod Agarwal, John R. Broderick, Gary Chiaverotti, Chris Colburn, Vicky Curtis, Steve Daniel, Susan Hughes, Enrique T. Inclan, Tatiana Isakovski, Sharon Lomax, John R. Lombard, Trish Manthey, Grace Wu, Gilbert Yochum

Economics Faculty Books

This is Old Dominion University's fourth annual "State of the Region" report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, or it's president, Dr. Roseann Runte.

The report maintains the goal of stimulating thought and discussion that ultimately will make Hampton Roads an even better place to live. We are proud of our region's many successes, but realize that it is possible to improve our performance. In order to do so, we must have accurate information about "where we are" and a …

The Most Technologically Progressive Decade Of The Century, Alexander J. Field

Economics

Because of the Depression’s place in both the popular and academic imagination, and the repeated and justifiable emphasis on output that was not produced, income that was not earned, and expenditure that did not take place, it will seem startling to propose the following hypothesis: the years 1929–1941 were, in the aggregate, the most technologically progressive of any comparable period in U.S. economic history.1 The hypothesis entails two primary claims: that during this period businesses and government contractors implemented or adopted on a more widespread basis a wide range of new technologies and practices, resulting in the highest rate of …

时尚报刊、广告与当代中国消费意识形态, Qili Lei

Lingnan Theses

本论文针对 1990 年代以来中国社会在经济文化方面的巨大改变，归纳并指出一种新的“消费意识形态”在中国业已历史地形成并取代日渐式微的传统 意识形态，成为宰制当代中国社会的主导力量。论文批判地回顾了1949 年以后中国大陆语境中意识形态涵义的历史嬗变，以四个具有典型意义的时尚报刊和广告案例、广告事件为例，从不同侧面解析了广告形象以及广告产业如何作为 中介与以时尚报刊为代表的文化工业一起，参与当代中国“消费意识形态”建 构的社会过程。

论文通过对“消费意识形态”所遮蔽的当代中国社会问题的揭示，对“消费意识形态”在当代中国社会发生影响的深度和广度的阐释，回应了九十年代以来在中国思想界有较大影响的“后六·四”文化论争中的一些重要问题，展现了文化研究在中国大陆介入现实社会思考和批判的可能空间。

The Labor Market Effects Of Palestinian Return Migration, Edward Sayre

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

No abstract provided.

Female Labor Force Participation, Fertility And The Timing Of Marriage In Morocco, Sami Zouari, Ragui Assaad

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

No abstract provided.

Rule Of Law, Contract Enforcement, And The Level And Maturity Of International Lending: Evidence From Mena, Jorge Martinez Vazquez, Wasim Mina

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

No abstract provided.

The Choice Between Accommodative And Non-Accommodative Exchange Rate Policy In The Presence Of Foreign Shocks, Serhan Ciftcioglu

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

No abstract provided.

Measuring Poverty And Inequality In Turkey, Yusuf Ziya Ozcan, Kivilcim Metin Ozcan

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

No abstract provided.

Now For The Hard Part, Kevin Hamlin, Assif Shameen

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Investors, and Pakistani citizens, might be forgiven for adopting a similar refrain today. Pakistan's leader, General Pervez Musharraf, has held power for four years following his ouster of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless coup in October 1999.

Thoughts On American Manufacturing Decline And Revitalization, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The recent decline in American manufacturing probably reflects long-run problems. A sensible approach to revitalizing American manufacturing would focus on overcoming inefficiencies in the development of manufacturing, such as problems in small- and medium-sized manufacturers getting information about deploying new technologies. This approach to revitalizing manufacturing can best be implemented through federal efforts to encourage and support state and local economic development policies that help enhance manufacturing productivity. A decentralized approach to the revitalization of manufacturing encourages a variety of creative policies, is adaptable to local conditions, and is consistent with American political traditions.

An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse …

The Role Of United Charities In Fundraising: The Case Of Singapore, Vincent Chua, Chung Ming Wong

Research Collection School Of Economics

Theory suggests that a united charity helps to economize on fundraising costs by reducing competition for donations among member charities. However, donors often cannot control the allocation of their donations, and charities may dislike the monitoring of their activities. This paper examines these and other issues relating to the Community Chest of Singapore. The results, based on analysis of financial positions and fundraising costs of a large number of charities, suggest that the Community Chest does possess important fundraising advantages. Thus charities in financial difficulties or in need of funds for additional programs tend to seek membership. However, organizations that …

The New Economy Is Dead, Long Live The Information Economy, Phillip J. Bryson

Faculty Publications

The arrival of the 2001-2003 recession caused many to suppose that the so-called "New Economy" was now defunct. This article addresses a number of related issues, including the question of the durability and viability of business cycles in the face of the technological developments of the information age. It asks what went wrong with the New Economy and examines its characteristics as well as its remaining possibilities and prospects for the future. Finally, it considers the spread of the Information Economy to Europe, especially to Germany, the country that one might expect to be the leading European player, but which …

The Benton Harbor Area Benchmarking Study, George A. Erickcek, Brad R. Watts

Reports

No abstract provided.

New Mexico Labor Market Review 08-31-2003, New Mexico Department Of Labor

Historic Publications

The New Mexico Labor Market Review is a monthly publication presenting statistical data and analysis on labor market conditions throughout New Mexico. Issues examine statewide and regional trends in employment, unemployment, labor force estimates, industry activity, wages, occupational demand, and related economic conditions, often accompanied by feature articles on topics affecting the state’s economy. This issue covers July 2003.

Real Options In Law: (Possibly, Frivolous) Litigation And Other Applications, Peter H. Huang

ExpressO

This Article advances the thesis that real options are not only ubiquitous in law, but also provide novel insights about legal decision making, doctrines and rules. An introduction provides a brief a primer about financial options, real options, and real options in law. Part I of this Article develops implications of the fact that every lawsuit contains a sequence of real options for the plaintiff to unilaterally abandon that lawsuit. Part II of this Article appraises the limitations of game-theoretic analysis of the abandonment options embedded in litigation and some responses to such limitations. Part III of this Article illustrates …

No Free Lunch: How Settlement Can Reduce The Legal System's Ability To Induce Efficient Behavior, Abraham Lee Wickelgren

ExpressO

While there is widespread agreement that it is better for cases to settle than go to trial, the arguments in favor of settlement have typically overlooked how settlement affects one of the most important functions of the legal system: influencing the behavior that gives rise to lawsuits. This essay argues that, in some cases, settlement can impair the ability of the legal system to deter harmful behavior without chilling desirable behavior. Where it exists, this effect is a fundamental property of settlement in that there is no way to change other legal rules to eliminate it. Because settlements also have …

Economic Impact Of State Farm Insurance’S Michigan Operations Center On The Marshall Area And Calhoun County, Brad R. Watts

Reports

The analysis estimates the economic impact on the Marshall area and Calhoun County of the closing of State Farm Insurance Company's Michigan Operations Center in the City of Marshall.