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1999

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Articles 151 - 180 of 431

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Forecasting Exchange Rates, Rawia Atef Mokhtar Jun 1999

Forecasting Exchange Rates, Rawia Atef Mokhtar

Archived Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

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The Great Transition: The Dynamics Of Market Transitions And The Case Of Russia, 1991-1995, Jeffrey K. Hass Jun 1999

The Great Transition: The Dynamics Of Market Transitions And The Case Of Russia, 1991-1995, Jeffrey K. Hass

Sociology and Anthropology Faculty Publications

The market transition in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union brings us back to essential issues that Marx and Weber addressed: the genesis of capitalism and the process of economic change. What is the transition and what does it involve - restructuring incentives, creating new laws, learning new culture, or creating new power structures? The answer partially depends on the particular transition (initial conditions, targets, actors' perceptions); but necessary general frameworks remain elusive, and current economic policies and analyses reveal that we understand little more about economic change than a century ago. Recent works on market transitions have furthered …

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Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview Of Some Recent Developments, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon Jun 1999

Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview Of Some Recent Developments, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper overviews some recent developments in panel data asymptotics, concentrating on the nonstationary panel case and gives a new result for models with individual effects. Underlying recent theory are asymptotics for multi-indexed processes in which both indexes may pass to infinity. We review some of the new limit theory that has been developed, show how it can be applied and give a new interpretation of individual effects in nonstationary panel data. Fundamental to the interpretation of much of the asymptotics is the concept of a panel regression coefficient which measures the long run average relation across a section of …

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Nonstationary Binary Choice, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips Jun 1999

Nonstationary Binary Choice, Joon Y. Park, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops an asymptotic theory for time series binary choice models with nonstationary explanatory variables generated as integrated processes. Both logit and probit models are covered. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimator is consistent but a new phenomenon arises in its limit distribution theory. The estimator consists of a mixture of two components, one of which is parallel to and the other orthogonal to the direction of the true parameter vector, with the latter being the principal component. The ML estimator is shown to converge at a rate of n 3 /4 along its principal component but has the slower …

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Descriptive Econometrics For Nonstationary Time Series With Empirical Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips Jun 1999

Descriptive Econometrics For Nonstationary Time Series With Empirical Illustrations, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent work by the author on methods of spatial density analysis for time series data with stochastic trends is reviewed and extended. The methods are illustrated in some empirical applications and simulations. The empirical applications include macroeconomic data on inflation, financial data on exchange rates and political opinion poll data. It is shown how the methods can be used to measure empirical hazard rates for inflation and deflation. Empirical estimates based on historical US data over the last 60 years indicate that the predominant inflation risks are at low levels (2–6%) and low two-digit levels (10–12%), and that there is …

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Linear Regression Limit Theory For Nonstationary Panel Data, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon Jun 1999

Linear Regression Limit Theory For Nonstationary Panel Data, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hyungsik Roger Moon

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops a regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data with large numbers of cross section ( n ) and time series ( T ) observations. The limit theory allows for both sequential limits, wherein T → ∞ followed by n → ∞, and joint limits where T,n → ∞ simultaneously; and the relationship between these multidimensional limits is explored. The panel structures considered allow for no time series cointegration, heterogeneous cointegration, homogeneous cointegration, and near-homogeneous cointegration. The paper explores the existence of long-run average relations between integrated panel vectors when there is no individual time series cointegration and …

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Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Peter C.B. Phillips Jun 1999

Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data, Hyungsik Roger Moon, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Time series data are often well modelled by using the device of an autoregressive root that is local to unity. Unfortunately, the localizing parameter (c) is not consistently estimable using existing time series econometric techniques and the lack of a consistent estimator complicates inference. This paper develops procedures for the estimation of a common localizing parameter using panel data. Pooling information across individuals in a panel aids the identification and estimation of the localising parameter and leads to consistent estimation in simple panel models. However, in the important case of models with concomitant deterministic trends, it is shown that pooled …

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Entry And Innovation In Vertically Differentiated Markets, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki Jun 1999

Entry And Innovation In Vertically Differentiated Markets, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper analyzes the optimal entry into experience goods markets with vertically differentiated buyers. We consider the case where the value of the new product is imperfectly known, but common to all buyers (common values) as well as the case where the quality is different across buyers (private values). We distinguish between new products that are improvements to existing products and new products that are substitutes. Different types of products have qualitatively distinct diffusion paths. Improvements are introduced slowly relative to the full information case, while substitutes are introduced more aggressively. The slow entry strategy is associated with increasing supply …

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Toward A Theory Of Reinsurance And Retrocession, Michael R. Powers, Martin Shubik Jun 1999

Toward A Theory Of Reinsurance And Retrocession, Michael R. Powers, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

There is a natural tradeoff between the benefits of increasing the number of competitors in an insurance market and the drawback to the weakening of the law of large numbers due to the diminishing of average reserves. In this investigation we consider the possibility for optimal layers of reinsurance and retrocession in the design of the insurance industry. A general question which may be asked of all financial institutions is what factors limit the number of layers of paper which can be constructed?

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An Empirical Model Of Inventory Investment By Durable Commodity Intermediaries, George J. Hall, John Rust Jun 1999

An Empirical Model Of Inventory Investment By Durable Commodity Intermediaries, George J. Hall, John Rust

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper introduces a new detailed data set of high-frequency observations on inventory investment by a U.S. steel wholesaler. Our analysis of these data leads to six main conclusions: orders and sales are made infrequently; orders are more volatile than sales; order sizes vary considerably; there is substantial high-frequency variation in the firm’s sales prices; inventory/sales ratios are unstable; and there are occasional stockouts. We model the firm generically as a durable commodity intermediary that engages in commodity price speculation. We demonstrate that the firm’s inventory investment behavior at the product level is well approximated by an optimal trading strategy …

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The Ohio Thomas Edison Program: An Economic Impact Study, Ziona Austrian, Adina Swirski Wolf Jun 1999

The Ohio Thomas Edison Program: An Economic Impact Study, Ziona Austrian, Adina Swirski Wolf

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

No abstract provided.

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Contributors: Vol 22 No. 2, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies Jun 1999

Contributors: Vol 22 No. 2, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies

Pacific Studies

Contributors list of Vol. 22 (1999): Pacific Studies Full Issue 2

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Books Received And Book Notices, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies Jun 1999

Books Received And Book Notices, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies

Pacific Studies

Book Listing for the Vol 22, No 2 Edition of the Pacific Studies Journal

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Changing Contours Of Kinship: The Impacts Of Social And Economic Development On Kinship Organization In The South Pacific, Cluny Macpherson Jun 1999

Changing Contours Of Kinship: The Impacts Of Social And Economic Development On Kinship Organization In The South Pacific, Cluny Macpherson

Pacific Studies

The incorporation of microstates into the capitalist world-system sets the stage for profound transformations of kinship organization. This article argues that, while ideologies of kinship may remain largely intact, the actual organization of kinship is changing. It explores the roles of social, demographic, political, and economic factors in the transformation of the structure of kinship and family in the South Pacific in the period since continuous contact with the West commenced some 170 years ago. The case of Western Samoa is offered as an example of the process of change that is occurring at varying rates throughout Pacific Island societies.

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Globalization, Stateless Capitalism, And The International Political Economy Of Tonga’S Satellite Venture, Anthony Van Fossen Jun 1999

Globalization, Stateless Capitalism, And The International Political Economy Of Tonga’S Satellite Venture, Anthony Van Fossen

Pacific Studies

Globalization has led some Pacific Islands countries into ventures that use their sovereignty to advance private interests against regulation by metropolitan states. Tongasat, Tonga’s innovative satellite enterprise, is one such recent initiative in “stateless” capitalism that has deep structural similarities with flags of convenience and offshore tax havens. The microstate has claimed a disproportionate percentage of geostationary slots and succeeded in filling a number of them. Tongasat’s emergence is analyzed in terms of the contemporary world-system, declining U.S. hegemony over the global satellite regime (creating opportunities for independent entrepreneurs), and the end of the cold war (making inexpensive Russian satellites …

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Vol. 22 No. 2 (1999): Pacific Studies Full Issue, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies Jun 1999

Vol. 22 No. 2 (1999): Pacific Studies Full Issue, The Jonathan Nāpela Center For Hawaiian And Pacific Islands Studies

Pacific Studies

Pacific Studies is published two times a year by The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies, Brigham Young University Hawai‘i #1979, 55–220 Kulanui Street, Lāʻie, Hawai‘i 96762, but responsibility for opinions expressed in the articles rests with the authors alone. Subscription rate is US$40.00 yearly, payable to The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies. The Jonathan Nāpela Center for Hawaiian and Pacific Studies (formerly The Pacific Institute) is an organization funded by Brigham Young University Hawai‘i. The Center assists the University in meeting its cultural and educational goals by undertaking a program of teaching, research, and …

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Banking Fragility: Causes And Indicators With Application To The Egyptian Banking Sector During The Period 1980-1997, Nermine Ibrahim Al Saadany Jun 1999

Banking Fragility: Causes And Indicators With Application To The Egyptian Banking Sector During The Period 1980-1997, Nermine Ibrahim Al Saadany

Archived Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

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Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang Jun 1999

Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article concerns i) the stochastic behavior of the Box-Cox transformation estimator and ii) the effect of estimating a transformation on the Box-CoxT-ratio used for the post-transformation analysis. It is shown that the transformation estimator depends on three factors: the model structure, the mean-spread and the error standard deviation σ0. In general, a structured model is able to estimate the transformation very well; an unstructured model can do well also unless the mean-spread and σ0 are both small; and a one-mean mode can give a poor-estimate if σ0 is small. When the sample is not large, it is shown that …

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A Theoretical Investigation Into The Role Of Central Bank Independence In The Recent East Asian Financial Crisis Of 1997-1998, Brian Mcmahon May 1999

A Theoretical Investigation Into The Role Of Central Bank Independence In The Recent East Asian Financial Crisis Of 1997-1998, Brian Mcmahon

Honors Capstones

No abstract provided.

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William The Liberator, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel May 1999

William The Liberator, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

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The Comparative Efficiency Of Ad Valorem And Specific Taxes Under Monopoly And Monopsony, Stephen F. Hamilton May 1999

The Comparative Efficiency Of Ad Valorem And Specific Taxes Under Monopoly And Monopsony, Stephen F. Hamilton

Economics

It is well known that ad valorem taxes welfare-dominate specific taxes under monopoly. This paper demonstrates that the comparative welfare ranking of the two instruments reverses under monopsony. The relative performance of alternative tax forms is thus highly sensitive to whether the buyer or seller has market power.

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Formal Models Of Authority: Introduction And Political Economy Applications, Eduardo Zambrano May 1999

Formal Models Of Authority: Introduction And Political Economy Applications, Eduardo Zambrano

Economics

Talcot Parsons suggested in 1963 that there are basically three kinds of authority: utilitarian authority, coercive authority, and persuasive authority. In this paper, I show that the models developed by Gibbons and Rutten (1997), Hirshleifer (1991), Skaperdas (1992), Akerlof (1976) and Basu (1986) can be viewed as models where issues such as authority, power, influence and ideology, in the sense of Parsons, can be formally discussed. I also show the existence of an interesting difficulty in providing a contractarian interpretation of the State under the Parsonian view of governmental authority discussed in this paper.

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Industrial Resources: Wayne County - Monticello, Kentucky Library Research Collections May 1999

Industrial Resources: Wayne County - Monticello, Kentucky Library Research Collections

Wayne County

"Resources for Economic Development: Monticello, [Kentucky]" prepared by the Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development, Division of Research in cooperation with the Wayne County Empowerment Zone, Monticello, Kentucky, May 1999. The report includes, but is not limited to, information about: labor markets, local manufacturing, transportation, utilities, fuel, water, sewage, industrial sites, local government and services, taxes, educational and health facilities, housing, communication, recreation, natural resources, markets and climate.

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Prospects For Success In The Global Marketplace, Murray L. Weidenbaum May 1999

Prospects For Success In The Global Marketplace, Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray Weidenbaum Publications

This paper explains how Americans need to understand the complexities of the global marketplace in order for the U.S. to become more competitive.

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Starting Small And Commitment, Joel Watson May 1999

Starting Small And Commitment, Joel Watson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

I study a model of a long-term partnership with two-sided incomplete information. The partners jointly determine the stakes of their relationship and individually decide whether to cooperate with or betray each other over time. I characterize the extremal — interim incentive efficient — equilibria. In these equilibria, the partners generally “start small,” with the level of interaction growing over time. The types of players separate quickly. Further, cooperation between “good” types is viable regardless of how pessimistic the players are about each other initially. The quick nature of separation in an extremal equilibrium contrasts with the outcome selected by a …

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Conditioning Institutions And Renegotiation, Garey Ramey, Joel Watson May 1999

Conditioning Institutions And Renegotiation, Garey Ramey, Joel Watson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a theory of contracting in long-term relationships, emphasizing the role of social institutions in conditioning players’ joint selection of Equilibria. Players adopt a social conditioning system in order to place boundaries on their recurrent negotiation and thereby sustain a desirable joint selection of equilibrium. Social conventions have value because players cannot freely reinterpret the labels attached to histories, in contrast to labels that the players might assign internally. We present examples of social conventions that are useful for sustaining cooperative interaction. Our model combines an explicit bargaining technology with a renegotiation concept, coherent equilibrium , that builds on …

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Starting Small In An Unfamiliar Environment, James Rauch, Joel Watson May 1999

Starting Small In An Unfamiliar Environment, James Rauch, Joel Watson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Motivated by a characteristic way in which firms in developed countries make their decisions regarding cooperation with potential partners from less developed countries, we design a simple model of a DC firm’s search for an LDC partner/supplier and the subsequent relationship between the two parties. Matched firms can “start small” with a trial order or pilot project of variable size in order to gain information about the ability of the LDC firm to successfully carry out a large project. We derive results relating whether and how the parties start small to the characteristics of the large project and to the …

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The Influence Of Group Affiliation And Ownership Structure On Emerging Market Ipos: The Case Of The Philippines, Michael J. Sullivan, Angelo A. Unite May 1999

The Influence Of Group Affiliation And Ownership Structure On Emerging Market Ipos: The Case Of The Philippines, Michael J. Sullivan, Angelo A. Unite

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

In this paper we report initial returns and long-run performance of IPOs in the Philippines over the period 1987-1997. Within this context we investigate the differential effects on IPO returns of offer size, firm age, industry, market timing, ownership structure, and company affiliation. We find average initial returns of 22.69% for a sample of 104 company IPOs over an 11-year period, 1987 through 1997, and three-year aftermarket adjusted returns of -5.44% for a subset of 65 of these companies. Factors commonly found to affect the level of IPO underpricing are not found significant in the Philippines. Instead, we find that …

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An Assessment Of The Costs, Benefits, And Overall Impacts Of The State Of Ohio's Economic Development Programs: Final Report, Donald T. Iannone May 1999

An Assessment Of The Costs, Benefits, And Overall Impacts Of The State Of Ohio's Economic Development Programs: Final Report, Donald T. Iannone

All Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs Publications

No abstract provided.

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Role Of Palestinian Economic Council For Development And Reconstruction (Pecdar) In State-Building In Palestine, Mohammed Awny Ahmed Dabbour May 1999

Role Of Palestinian Economic Council For Development And Reconstruction (Pecdar) In State-Building In Palestine, Mohammed Awny Ahmed Dabbour

Archived Theses and Dissertations

No abstract provided.

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