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Articles 1681 - 1710 of 1733
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Assessing Export Platforms: The Case Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Assessing Export Platforms: The Case Of Singapore, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
The aim of this paper is to try to understand how Singapore was generally successful in its export promoting strategy. Historically, Singapore experimented with an import-substituting strategy in the first half of the sixties in anticipation of forming a common market with Malaysia and also briefly after its independence in 1965. The level of protection, however, was relatively low during its import-substituting phase.
On The Proper Use Of Box-Cox Transformation Method: A Note On A Taguchi Case Study, Zhenlin Yang
On The Proper Use Of Box-Cox Transformation Method: A Note On A Taguchi Case Study, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In studying the role of transformation in the Taguchi method, Logothetis (1990) analyzed the data from a plasma etching process and concluded that the Box-Cox method can induce a mean bias in the variability performance measure which can inhibit the production of clearcut results. This paper points out that the above conclusion is in part due to an inappmpriate application of the Box-Cox method where the transformation parameter is determined from one model but the analysis is done on the other. Further, it may not be appropriate to state that Box-Cox method induces a mean bias, but rather that there …
Hong Kong And Singapore, Sock Yong Phang
Hong Kong And Singapore, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
There are many similarities between Hong Kong and Singapore. They have both enjoyed high rates of economic growth over the past three decades, averaging six percent a year in real terms. The two have become known as “East Asian Tigers,” having made the transition from poverty to newly industrialized economies in a relatively short time. Both started off as British colonies, with British legal and administrative systems, and made their living as trading ports serving their respective regions. Singapore has been an independent republic since 1965; Hong Kong was returned to China on July 1, 1997. While Hong Kong and …
Dynamic Regressions With Variables Observed At Different Frequencies, Tilak Abeysinghe, Anthony S. Tay
Dynamic Regressions With Variables Observed At Different Frequencies, Tilak Abeysinghe, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider the problem of formulating and estimating dynamic regression models with variables observed at different frequencies. The strategy adopted is to define the dynamics of the model in terms of the highest available frequency, and to apply certain lag polynomials to transform the dynamics so that the model is expressed solely in terms of observed variables. A general solution is provided for models with monthly and quarterly observations. We also show how the methods can be extended to models with quarterly and annual observations, and models combining monthly and annual observations.
Two Hundred Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: Recurrence Patterns And Prognostic Factors For Survival, Ronald P. Dematteo, Jonathan J. Lewis, Denis H. Y. Leung, Salvinder S. Mudan, James M. Woodruff, Murray F. Brennan
Two Hundred Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: Recurrence Patterns And Prognostic Factors For Survival, Ronald P. Dematteo, Jonathan J. Lewis, Denis H. Y. Leung, Salvinder S. Mudan, James M. Woodruff, Murray F. Brennan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Objective: To analyze the outcome of 200 patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) who were treated at a single institution and followed up prospectively. Summary Background Data: A GIST is a visceral sarcoma that arises from the gastrointestinal tract. Surgical resection is the mainstay of treatment because adjuvant therapy is unproven. Methods: Two hundred patients with malignant GIST were admitted and treated at Memorial Hospital during the past 16 years. Patient, tumor, and treatment variables were analyzed to identify patterns of tumor recurrence and factors that predict survival. Results: Of the 200 patients, 46% had primary disease without metastasis, 47% …
The Long Term Effects Of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibition And Metabolic Control On Cardiovascular And Renal Outcomes In Hypertensive Type 2 Diabetic Patients, Julien C. N. Chan, Gary T. C. Ko, Denis H. Y. Leung
The Long Term Effects Of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibition And Metabolic Control On Cardiovascular And Renal Outcomes In Hypertensive Type 2 Diabetic Patients, Julien C. N. Chan, Gary T. C. Ko, Denis H. Y. Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Long-term effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition and metabolic control in hypertensive type 2 diabetic patients. Background. In hypertensive type 2 diabetic patients, treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors is associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events than those treated with calcium channel-blocking agents. However, the long-term renal effects of ACE inhibitors in these patients remain inconclusive. In 1989, we commenced a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized study to examine the anti-albuminuric effects of enalapril versus nifedipine (slow release) in 102 hypertensive, type 2 diabetic patients. These patients have been followed up for a mean trial duration of 5.5 ± 2.2 years. …
An Empirical Analysis Of Unit Trust Performance In Singapore, Joseph H. H. Chia, Yiu Kuen Tse
An Empirical Analysis Of Unit Trust Performance In Singapore, Joseph H. H. Chia, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Singapore government’s recent strategic plan to develop the financial sector has placed much emphasis on the fund management industry. In this paper we examine the unit trust performance in Singapore in the 90s. Our results show that fund managers in general performed poorly in security analysis and market timing. However, they performed fairly well in risk-adjusted returns and generally maintained well-diversified portfolios. We find that there is little consistency in the performance ranking of the evaluated portfolios, although there is evidence of repeat performance of some top funds. Our analysis also shows that fund managers could indeed make excess …
Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay
Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange, Francis X. Diebold, Jinyong Hahn, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast calibration can be used to improve deficient density forecasts, and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models, even when the conditional density is unknown. Finally, motivated by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts. © …
Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang
Estimating A Transformation And Its Effect On Box-Cox T-Ratio, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article concerns i) the stochastic behavior of the Box-Cox transformation estimator and ii) the effect of estimating a transformation on the Box-CoxT-ratio used for the post-transformation analysis. It is shown that the transformation estimator depends on three factors: the model structure, the mean-spread and the error standard deviation σ0. In general, a structured model is able to estimate the transformation very well; an unstructured model can do well also unless the mean-spread and σ0 are both small; and a one-mean mode can give a poor-estimate if σ0 is small. When the sample is not large, it is shown that …
Evaluating Density Forecasts Of Inflation: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis
Evaluating Density Forecasts Of Inflation: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Francis X. Diebold, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since 1968, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has asked respondents to provide a complete probability distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1997). The analysis reveals several interesting features of the density forecasts in relation to realized inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced …
New Tools For Understanding Spurious Regressions, Peter C. B. Phillips
New Tools For Understanding Spurious Regressions, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Some new tools for analyzing spurious regressions are presented. The theory utilizes the general representation of a stochastic process in tenns of an orthononnal system and provides an extension of tile Weierstrass theorem to include the approximation of continuous functions and stochastic processes by Wiener processes. The theory is applied to two classic examples of spurious regressions: regression of stochastic trends on time polynomials, and regressions among independent random walks. It is shown that such regressions reproduce in part and in whole the underlying orthonormal representations.
Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay
Evaluating Density Forecasts With Applications To Financial Risk Management, Francis X. Diebold, Todd A. Gunther, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods that are applicable regardless of the particular user’s loss function. We illustrate the methods with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts, multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation, monitoring for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation with known loss function.
Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
Our model endogenizes the share of public sector employment in a neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that public sector production is labor intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, the public share of employment is shown to decline with a rise in capital per effective worker. Our theory predicts that periods of high productivity growth are associated with a rising trend of the public share of employment. This prediction conforms well with U.S. experience from 1950–1995.
Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Productivity Growth And Public Sector Employment, Kong Weng Ho, Hian Teck Hoon
Research Collection School Of Economics
Our model endogenizes the share of public sector employment in a neoclassical growth model. Under the assumptions that public sector production is labor intensive and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is less than one, the public share of employment is shown to decline with a rise in capital per effective worker. Our theory predicts that periods of high productivity growth are associated with a rising trend of the public share of employment. This prediction conforms well with U.S. experience from 1950-1995.
Persistent Alterations Of The Autonomic Nervous System After Noncardiac Surgery, David Amar, Martin Fleisher, Carol B Pantuck, Harry Shamoon, Hao Zhang, Nancy Roistacher, Denis H. Y. Leung, Ilana Ginsburg, Richard M. Smiley
Persistent Alterations Of The Autonomic Nervous System After Noncardiac Surgery, David Amar, Martin Fleisher, Carol B Pantuck, Harry Shamoon, Hao Zhang, Nancy Roistacher, Denis H. Y. Leung, Ilana Ginsburg, Richard M. Smiley
Research Collection School Of Economics
IN some patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, important cardiovascular events such as myocardial ischemia or dysrhythmias occur, most commonly on postoperative days 1–5. These early perioperative events have been associated with poor outcome at 18–24 months. Sympathetic neural or hormonal mechanisms have been implicated as causative factors for these complications. In the study of possible effects of surgical stress on these mechanisms, the ability to assess autonomic outflow to target organs such as the heart would be important.
The Conditional Heteroscedasticity Of The Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates, Yiu Kuen Tse
The Conditional Heteroscedasticity Of The Yen-Dollar Exchange Rates, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the conditional heteroscedasticity of the yen-dollar exchange rate. A model is constructed by extending the asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to a process that is fractionally integrated. It is found that, unlike the equity markets, the appreciation and depreciation shocks of the yen against the dollar have similar effects on future volatilities. Although the results reject both the stable and the integrated models, our analysis of the response coefficients of the past shocks and the application of the models to the estimation of the capital requirements for trading the currencies show that there are no substantial …
Curbing Urban Traffic Congestion In Singapore: A Comprehensive Review, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang
Curbing Urban Traffic Congestion In Singapore: A Comprehensive Review, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
One of the most pervasive and frustrating of modern transportation problems is urban traffic congestion. Since 1975, Singapore has introduced a relentless series of traditional and experimental measures to slow down the growth of the motor vehicle population and to control its usage. While some of the measures have been somewhat successful, some of the problems were shifted or were substituted. The Area Licensing Scheme led to a shifting of the problem in time and place while the quota system has substituted uncertainty in quantity with uncertainty in price. Furthermore, the Preferential Additional Registration Fee system and the Quota System …
From Manual To Electronic Road Congestion Pricing: The Singapore Experience And Experiment, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
From Manual To Electronic Road Congestion Pricing: The Singapore Experience And Experiment, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study reviews the efforts of Singapore to curb road congestion through restraints on motor vehicle ownership as well as user fees. In particular, it traces the history of the famous Area Licensing Scheme (ALS), and then discusses its shortcomings, also the need for Electronic Road Pricing (ERP), its advantages and disadvantages and the technology involved in this state of the art system. This paper identifies important research questions to be addressed in connection with the first full-scale adoption of ERP.
Economic Development And The Distribution Of Land Rents In Singapore: A Georgist Implementation, Sock-Yong Phang
Economic Development And The Distribution Of Land Rents In Singapore: A Georgist Implementation, Sock-Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Independent Singapore, which has a tradition of free trade, has implemented large doses of Henry George's prescriptions. It has successfully captured land rents for redistribution through its land acquisition, public housing and other programs. These policies have been instrumental in the successful economic development of the island city state. Industrial estates on state-owned land were leased to foreign multinationals for export-oriented manufacturing which created the bulk of jobs in the sector. Commercial developments are built by the program. Affordable 99-year leasehold housing, built by the state, provided added economic incentives for employment, and helped keep inflation and wages down. Private …
Singapore's Experience With Car Quotas: Issues And Policy Processes, Sock-Yong Phang, Wing-Keung Wong, Ngee-Choon Chia
Singapore's Experience With Car Quotas: Issues And Policy Processes, Sock-Yong Phang, Wing-Keung Wong, Ngee-Choon Chia
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the policy processes behind Singapore's car quotas. The policy, when filtered through the market mechanism, had a number of unintended consequences. The public's unhappiness with certain features and [`]loopholes' of the system resulted in many changes to the rules. The effects of recent measures to curb speculation on quota premiums are evaluated. Problems with Singapore's Weekend Car Scheme are also discussed. The lesson for transport policy makers elsewhere is that in attempting to deal with the road congestion problem through car ownership policies, an asset market for vehicles should be taken into account.
Tourism Growth In Singapore: An Optimal Target, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
Tourism Growth In Singapore: An Optimal Target, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Temporary Equililibrium Dynamics With Learning: The Stability Of Random Walk Beliefs, Shurojit Chatterji
Temporary Equililibrium Dynamics With Learning: The Stability Of Random Walk Beliefs, Shurojit Chatterji
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the stability of deterministic steady-states with a one dimensional state-variable and a smooth, recursive updating rule. It is shown that the only possibly stable steady states are those associated with random walk beliefs, provided there is motion on a center manifold, which is the case when a key parameter is non-zero; In the extant literature, there is no motion on the center manifold (the parameter is zero), a consequence of the specific assumption that the expected value of the state variable next period determines its current value. The stability properties are seen to be robust with respect …
Spurious Regression In Forecast-Encompassing Tests, Peter C. B. Phillips
Spurious Regression In Forecast-Encompassing Tests, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning, Shurojit Chatterji
Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning, Shurojit Chatterji
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the stability of deterministic steady states in a class of economies where the state variable is one dimensional and where agents use Bayesian techniques to form expectations. The dynamics with learning are locally convergent if the prior mean is close to a stable perfect-foresight root having modulus less than 1 and if the prior beliefs are held with enough confidence. The dynamics are, however, divergent if the prior mean or the variance of the prior distribution is sufficiently large
The Multiplier Effect: Singapore's Hospitality Industry, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
The Multiplier Effect: Singapore's Hospitality Industry, Habibullah Khan, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
Research Collection School Of Economics
Tourism's contribution to Singapore's economy has increased over time. Tourism contributed 11.9% to Singapore's GDP in 1992, about half of that from direct revenues. Indirect and induced sources contributed about equally to the other half. While the direct effect of tourist expenditures on the Singapore economy are predominant, the indirect and induced effects are also significant, indicating strong sectoral linkages within the local economy, especially with respect to the hospitality industry.
Port Multipliers For Singapore: Impact On Income, Output, And Employment, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang, Habibullah Khan
Port Multipliers For Singapore: Impact On Income, Output, And Employment, Rex S. Toh, Sock-Yong Phang, Habibullah Khan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article examines the contribution of the activities of the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA), a government-owned statutory board which operates almost all of the port related activities in Singapore, to the prosperity of the entire country, by way of multiplier analysis. Input-output analysis is used to compute the income, output, and employment multipliers of port activities, broken down into direct, indirect, and induced effects. The policy implications on port investment and maritime policy follow.
Rearrangement Of The Bcl-6 Gene As A Prognostic Marker In Diffuse Large-Cell Lymphoma, K. Offit, D.C. Louie, N. Z. Parsa, Denis H. Y. Leung, C. Portlock, B.H. Ye, F. Lista, D.A. Filippa, A. Rosenbaum, M. Ladanyi, S. Jhanwar, R. Dalla-Favera, R.S.K. Changanti
Rearrangement Of The Bcl-6 Gene As A Prognostic Marker In Diffuse Large-Cell Lymphoma, K. Offit, D.C. Louie, N. Z. Parsa, Denis H. Y. Leung, C. Portlock, B.H. Ye, F. Lista, D.A. Filippa, A. Rosenbaum, M. Ladanyi, S. Jhanwar, R. Dalla-Favera, R.S.K. Changanti
Research Collection School Of Economics
Current therapy can induce a long-term remission in half the patients with diffuse lymphomas with a large-cell component (DLLC), but more intensive treatment has the potential to improve outcome. Rearrangement of a novel candidate proto-oncogene, bcl-6, correlates with a favorable clinical outcome in DLLC and may thus serve as a prognostic marker.
Fallibility And Sequential Decision-Making, Winston T. H. Koh
Fallibility And Sequential Decision-Making, Winston T. H. Koh
Research Collection School Of Economics
Individuals typically make errors in evaluating information. In this paper, we consider a project selection problem, where fallible managers screen projects sequentially, and provide independent opinions on its quality. We compare the relative performance of the hierarchy and polyarchy when η (n > 2) managers are employed to evaluate projects. In addition to generalizing the existing results on the optimal screening standards, I discuss and characterize the optimal organizational size, and how the relative desirability of the two sequential decision processes are affected by changing the project quality. Finally, I also discuss the effect of variable evaluation costs on the optimal …
Policies To Promote Shipping Registration In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
Policies To Promote Shipping Registration In Singapore, Sock Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh
Research Collection School Of Economics
An analysis traces the development of ship registration in Singapore and examines the underlying motivation behind changes in policies over the last 3 decades. For the better part of the 1970s Singapore was classified as a flag of convenience (FOC) country as it pursued an FOC policy that emphasized the quantitative growth of its merchant fleet. Beginning in 1979 Singapore tightened maritime standards as well as ownership disclosure rules, requiring a foreign shipowner to incorporate a company in Singapore. It is regarded today as a quasi-FOC country - a term associated favorably with countries offering tax incentives to shipowners. The …
Prediction, Filtering, And Smoothing In Nonlinear And Nonnormal Cases Using Monte-Carlo Integration, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano
Prediction, Filtering, And Smoothing In Nonlinear And Nonnormal Cases Using Monte-Carlo Integration, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano
Research Collection School Of Economics
A simulation-based non-linear filter is developed for prediction and smoothing in non-linear and/or nonnormal structural time-series models. Recursive algorithms of weighting functions are derived by applying Monte Carlo integration. Through Monte Carlo experiments, it is shown that (1) for a small number of random draws (or nodes) our simulation-based density estimator using Monte Carlo integration (SDE) performs better than Kitagawa's numerical integration procedure (KNI), and (2) SDE and KNI give less biased parameter estimates than the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Finally, an estimation of per capita final consumption data is taken as an application to the non-linear filtering problem.