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Research Collection School Of Economics

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Full-Text Articles in Economics

A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of Short Term Interest Rates, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2002

A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of Short Term Interest Rates, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short-term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to US and British interest rates is given.


Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Applications In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh Jan 2002

Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Applications In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.


Asset Prices, The Real Exchange Rate, And Unemployment In A Small Open Economy: A Medium-Run Structuralist Perspective, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps Jan 2002

Asset Prices, The Real Exchange Rate, And Unemployment In A Small Open Economy: A Medium-Run Structuralist Perspective, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.


A Small-Sample Overlapping Variance-Ratio Test, Yiu Kuen Tse, K. W. Ng, Xibin Zhang Jan 2002

A Small-Sample Overlapping Variance-Ratio Test, Yiu Kuen Tse, K. W. Ng, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The null distribution of the overlapping variance-ratio (OVR) test of the random-walk hypothesis is known to be downward biased and skewed to the right in small samples. As shown by Lo and MacKinlay (1989), the test under-rejects the null on the left tail seriously when the sample size is small. This unfortunate property adversely affects the applicability of the OVR test to macroeconomic time series, which usually have rather small samples. In this paper we propose a modified overlapping variance-ratio statistic and derive its exact mean under the normality assumption. We propose to approximate the small-sample distribution of the modified …


Monitoring Process Variability With Symmetric Control Limits, Zhenlin Yang Jan 2002

Monitoring Process Variability With Symmetric Control Limits, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Control charts for monitoring process variability, such as the R-chart and S-chart, do not have symmetric probability limits as the distribution of the sample variability is not normal. Hence, the usual zone rules can not be applied although it is still desirable to be able to use the information from more than one point in decision making. In this paper, a modified S-chart based on an optimal normalizing transformation of the sample variance is first introduced. The new chart is shown to have approximate symmetric probability limits and hence can be interpreted in the same way as that of a …


How Does Spousal Education Matter? Some Evidence From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii, Sophal Ear Jan 2002

How Does Spousal Education Matter? Some Evidence From Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii, Sophal Ear

Research Collection School Of Economics

An econometric analysis of the World Food Programme Civil Insecurity Baseline Survey (1998) and Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey (1999) data is undertaken to examine the role of education and literacy in explaining household expenditure, as hypothesized in human capital theory where education is an investment with returns in the form of income. Explanatory variables were selected from a large set of observed variables by a systematic procedure to avoid the bias arising from arbitrary model selection. Spousal education and literacy are found to be significant explanatory variables in the determination of household expenditure, exceeding even the coefficients attached to the head …


A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model With Time-Varying Correlations, Yiu Kuen Tse, Albert K.C. Tsui Jan 2002

A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model With Time-Varying Correlations, Yiu Kuen Tse, Albert K.C. Tsui

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article we propose a new multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model with time-varying correlations. We adopt the vech representation based on the conditional variances and the conditional correlations. Whereas each conditional-variance term is assumed to follow a univariate GARCH formulation, the conditional-correlation matrix is postulated to follow an autoregressive moving average type of analog. Our new model retains the intuition and interpretation of the univariate GARCH model and yet satisfies the positive-definite condition as found in the constant-correlation and Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner models We report some Monte Carlo results on the finite-sample distributions of the maximum likelihood estimate of …


Estimation Of The Stochastic Volatility Model By The Empirical Characteristic Function Method, J. Knight, S. Satchell, Jun Yu Jan 2002

Estimation Of The Stochastic Volatility Model By The Empirical Characteristic Function Method, J. Knight, S. Satchell, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The stochastic volatility model has no closed form for its likelihood and hence the maximum likelihood estimation method is difficult to implement. However, it can be shown that the model has a known characteristic function. As a consequence, the model is estimable via the empirical characteristic function. In this paper, the characteristic function of the model is derived and the estimation procedure is discussed. An application is considered for daily returns of Australian/New Zealand dollar exchange rate. Model checking suggests that the stochastic volatility model together with the empirical characteristic function estimates fit the data well.


Factor Substitution And Endogenous Growth, Hing-Man Leung Dec 2001

Factor Substitution And Endogenous Growth, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

We argue that the degree of substitutability between skilled and unskilled workers in production increases long-term income growth rate. Growth rate reaches its maximum when such factors are perfect substitutes, but falls to zero when they are perfect complements. This model brings together the diverging relative wage and the human-capital-growth literature. Easier substitution absorbs more workers into the skilled profession, and their training fuels human capital accumulation and growth. Our result implies, among other things, that growth is positively related to between-and within-group inequality.


Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status, Tls-Chop Fusion Transcript Structure, And Histological Grade In Myxoid Liposarcoma: A Molecular And Clinicopathologic Study Of 82 Cases, C. R. Antonescu, S. J. Tschernyavsky, R. Decuseara, Denis H. Y. Leung, J. M. Woodruff, M. F. Brennan, J. A. Bridge, J. R. Neff, J. R. Goldblum, M. Ladanyi Dec 2001

Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status, Tls-Chop Fusion Transcript Structure, And Histological Grade In Myxoid Liposarcoma: A Molecular And Clinicopathologic Study Of 82 Cases, C. R. Antonescu, S. J. Tschernyavsky, R. Decuseara, Denis H. Y. Leung, J. M. Woodruff, M. F. Brennan, J. A. Bridge, J. R. Neff, J. R. Goldblum, M. Ladanyi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Purpose: A specific TLS-CHOP fusion gene resulting from the t(12;16) is present in at least 95% of myxoid liposarcomas (MLS). Three common forms of the TLS-CHOP fusion have been described, differing by the presence or absence of TLS exons 6-8 in the fusion product. Type 5-2 (also known as type II) consists of TLS exons 1-5 fused to CHOP exon 2; type 7-2 (also known as type I) also includes TLS exons 6 and 7 in the fusion, whereas type 8-2 (also known as type III) fuses TLS exons 1-8 to CHOP exon 2. We sought to determine the impact …


The Integration Of The East And South-East Asian Equity Markets, K. B. Tan, Yiu Kuen Tse Sep 2001

The Integration Of The East And South-East Asian Equity Markets, K. B. Tan, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study examines how the degree of capital-market integration of the East and South-East Asian (ESEA) economies varied over the period 1988–2000 following the deregulation of these markets. The deregulation process varied across the countries both in terms of intensity and timing. A greater degree of co-movements in stock prices is a reflection of greater stock-market integration. We employ Geweke’s (1982) measure of feedback for different pairs of markets. For each pair of markets, the Geweke measure shows how co-movements in daily returns of stock prices varied over time. This is followed by the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to examine …


Housing Policy, Wealth Formation And The Singapore Economy, Sock-Yong Phang Jul 2001

Housing Policy, Wealth Formation And The Singapore Economy, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the contribution of housing policy in Singapore to financial sector development, housing wealth formation and macro-economic performance, both retrospectively and prospectively. It provides an overview of past housing policies and traces the linkages to the financial sector. Housing policy as effected through the Housing and Development Board and the Central Provident Fund (CPF) hampered the development of the commercial housing loans sector and domestic financial markets, but contributed to the overall growth and stability of the housing loans market and associated financial institutions. Housing policy and the trend of housing asset inflation contributed significantly to the formation …


Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips Jul 2001

Gaussian Estimation Of Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate, Jun Yu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a Gaussian estimator for nonlinear continuous time models of the short term interest rate. The approach is based on a stopping time argument that produces a normalizing transformation facilitating the use of a Gaussian likelihood. A Monte Carlo study shows that the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure offers an improvement over the discrete approximation method proposed by Nowman (1997). An empirical application to U.S. and British interest rates is given.


Motor Vehicle Taxes As An Environmental Management Instrument: The Case Of Singapore, Ngee-Choon Chia, Sock Yong Phang Jun 2001

Motor Vehicle Taxes As An Environmental Management Instrument: The Case Of Singapore, Ngee-Choon Chia, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Being geographically small, land scarcity poses a potential constraint for economic growth in Singapore. Restraining car ownership and car use through motor vehicle taxes is part of the land-transport policy to ensure smoother traffic flow. This paper analyses the use of motor vehicle taxes in Singapore as an environmental management instrument. It evaluates the effectiveness of ownership and use taxes as instruments to internalise congestion and environment externality. Economic issues relating to the use of such taxes are also highlighted. It concludes that motor vehicle taxes offer Singapore a double dividend.


Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Use In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh Jun 2001

Neyman's Smooth Test And Its Use In Econometrics, Anil K. Bera, Aurobindo Ghosh

Research Collection School Of Economics

The following essay is a reappraisal of the role of the smooth test proposed by Neyman (1937) in the context of current applications in econometrics. We revisit the derivation of the smooth test and put it into the perspective of the existing literature on tests based on probability integral transforms suggested by early pioneers such as R.A.Fisher (1930, 1932) and Karl Pearson (1933, 1934) and the other tests for goodness-of-fit. Our discussion touches data-driven and other methods of testing and inference on the order of the smooth test and the motivation and choice of orthogonal polynomials used by Neyman and …


Validation Of Tissue Microarrays For Immunohistochemical Profiling Of Cancer Specimens Using The Example Of Human Fibroblastic Tumors, Axel Hoos, M. J. Urist, A. Stojadinovic, S. Mastorides, M. Dudas, Denis H. Y. Leung Apr 2001

Validation Of Tissue Microarrays For Immunohistochemical Profiling Of Cancer Specimens Using The Example Of Human Fibroblastic Tumors, Axel Hoos, M. J. Urist, A. Stojadinovic, S. Mastorides, M. Dudas, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Tissue microarrays allow high-throughput molecular profiling of cancer specimens by immunohistochemistry. Phenotype information of sections from arrayed biopsies on a multitissue block needs to be representative of full sections, as protein expression varies throughout the entire tumor specimen. To validate the use of tissue microarrays for immunophenotyping, we studied a group of 59 fibroblastic tumors with variable protein expression patterns by immunohistochemistry for Ki-67, p53, and the retinoblastoma protein (pRB). Data on full tissue sections were compared to the results of one, two, and three 0.6-mm core biopsies per tumor on a tissue array. Ki-67 and p53 staining was read …


Mapping The Discipline Of The Olympic Games: An Author Cocitation Analysis, Peter Warning, Rosie Ching, Kristine Toohey Apr 2001

Mapping The Discipline Of The Olympic Games: An Author Cocitation Analysis, Peter Warning, Rosie Ching, Kristine Toohey

Research Collection School Of Economics

The authors conducted an author cocitation analysis on prominent authors writing about the Olympics during the 1990s. Author cocitation is an established bibliometric technique that can be used to measure the relative similarities of topics written about by the cited authors. This enables a visual representation of the “intellectual space” of the discipline, in this case the Olympics, to be created for the period under review. So core and peripheral research areas are identified, along with their major contributors. The representation appears as a two-dimensional cluster-enhanced map. Subject expertise was then applied to the results to place labels on the …


Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang Mar 2001

Optimal Designs For Evaluating A Series Of Treatments, Denis H. Y. Leung, You Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification …


Forecasting Volatility: Evidence From The German Stock Market, Hagen H. W. Bluhm, Jun Yu Feb 2001

Forecasting Volatility: Evidence From The German Stock Market, Hagen H. W. Bluhm, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we compare two basic approaches to forecast volatility in the German stock market. The first approach uses various univariate time series techniques while the second approach makes use of volatility implied in option prices. The time series models include the historical mean model, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model, four ARCH-type models and a stochastic volatility (SV) model. Based on the utilization of volatility forecasts in option pricing and Value-at-Risk (VaR), various forecast horizons and forecast error measurements are used to assess the ability of volatility forecasts. We show that the mode lrankings are sensitive to …


Statistical Methods For Clinical Studies In The Presence Of Surrogate End Points, Denis H. Y. Leung Jan 2001

Statistical Methods For Clinical Studies In The Presence Of Surrogate End Points, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

The use of surrogate end points has become increasingly common in medical and biological research. This is primarily because, in many studies, the primary end point of interest is too expensive or too difficult to obtain. There is now a large volume of statistical methods for analysing studies with surrogate end point data. However, to our knowledge, there has not been a comprehensive review of these methods to date. This paper reviews some existing methods and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of each method. It also discusses the assumptions that are made by each method and critiques how likely these …


Do Stock Returns Follow A Finite Variance Distribution?, Q. M. Shao, H. Yu, Jun Yu Jan 2001

Do Stock Returns Follow A Finite Variance Distribution?, Q. M. Shao, H. Yu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a test statistic to discriminate between models with finite variance and models with infinite variance. The test statistic is the ratio of the sample standard deviation and the sample interquartile range. Both asymptotic and finite sample properties of the test statistic are discussed. We show that the test has good power properties against infinite-variance distributions and has small size distortions in finite samples. The statistic is applied to compare the competing models for S&P 500 index returns. Our test cannot reject most distributions with finite variance for both a pre-crash sample and a post-crash sample, …


The Asian Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead For Singapore, Augustine H. H. Tan Jan 2001

The Asian Economic Crisis: The Way Ahead For Singapore, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.


A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang Jan 2001

A Bayesian Decision Approach For Sample Size Determination In Phase Ii Trials, Denis H. Y. Leung, You-Gan Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics50, 337–349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or …


An Empirical Investigation Into Long- And Short-Term Indebtedness, Hing-Man Leung Jan 2001

An Empirical Investigation Into Long- And Short-Term Indebtedness, Hing-Man Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

The external debt position of a country often lies at the heart of her financial crisis. While it is well-known that indebtedness and in particular a surge in short-term debts often precipitate a debt crisis that is often made worse by runs on a country’s foreign exchange, the reasons why a country takes a particular debt position is rarely formally explained. This paper investigates the long-term determinants of international indebtedness, the time-rates of change of indebtedness, and a nation’s short- to long term debt ratio. The data set used is the World Data CD-ROM. Six potential explanatory variables are: size, …


A Monte Carlo Investigation Of Some Tests For Stochastic Dominance, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang Dec 2000

A Monte Carlo Investigation Of Some Tests For Stochastic Dominance, Yiu Kuen Tse, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper compares the performance of several tests for stochastic dominance up to order three using Monte Carlo methods. The tests considered are the Davidson and Duclos (2000) test, the Anderson test (1996) and the Kaur, Rao and Singh (1994) test. We find that the Davidson-Duclos test appears to be the best. The Kaur-Rao-Singh test is overly conservative and does not compare favorably against the Davidson-Duclos and Anderson tests in terms of power.


How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang Dec 2000

How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals For Impulse Responses In Large Var Models?, Lutz Kilian, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the finite-sample accuracy and average length of pointwise confidence intervals for impulse responses in vector autoregressive models with many variables and many lags. Our results complement existing simulation evidence based on much simpler bivariate models.


Bugs For A Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu Dec 2000

Bugs For A Bayesian Analysis Of Stochastic Volatility Models, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper reviews the general Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic volatility models with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. The main purpose is to illustrate the ease with which the Bayesian stochastic volatility model can now be studied routinely via BUGS (Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling), a recently developed, user-friendly, and freely available software package. It is an ideal software tool for the exploratory phase of model building as any modifications of a model including changes of priors and sampling error distributions are readily realized with only minor changes of the code. However, due to the single move …


Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status In Ewing Sarcoma, E. De Alava, C. Antonescu, A. Panizo, Denis H. Y. Leung, P. Meyers, A. Huvos, F. J. Pardo-Mindan, J. Healey, M. Ladanyi Aug 2000

Prognostic Impact Of P53 Status In Ewing Sarcoma, E. De Alava, C. Antonescu, A. Panizo, Denis H. Y. Leung, P. Meyers, A. Huvos, F. J. Pardo-Mindan, J. Healey, M. Ladanyi

Research Collection School Of Economics

Disease stage at the time of diagnosis and response to therapy are the main prognostic factors for patients with Ewing sarcoma or peripheral neuroectodermal tumor (ES/PNET). The primary genetic alteration in ES/PNET, the fusion of the EWS gene with FLI1 or ERG, is diagnostically highly specific for these tumors, and molecular variation in the structure of the EWS-FLI1 fusion gene also is of prognostic significance. In contrast, secondary genetic alterations, such as P53 alterations, are relatively uncommon in ES/PNET, and their prognostic impact has not been extensively studied. METHODS: Prechemotherapy, paraffin embedded, nondecalcified, primary tumor material in a well-characterized series …


Density Forecasting: A Survey, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis Jul 2000

Density Forecasting: A Survey, Anthony S. Tay, Kenneth F. Wallis

Research Collection School Of Economics

A density forecast of the realization of a random variable at some future time is an estimate of the probability distribution of the possible future values of that variable. A selective survey is presented of applications of density forecasting in macroeconomics and finance, and some issues concerning the production, presentation, and evaluation of density forecasts are discussed.


A New Statistic For Regression Transformation, Zhenlin Yang Jun 2000

A New Statistic For Regression Transformation, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new statistic for testing a regression transformation is proposed based on a result of Yang (1999). This statistic is shown to be stable, having a null distribution almost independent of model type and parameter values, accurate and easy to implement. The statistic is of the Wald-type and thus is compared with the Wald statistic given by Lawrence (1987) in terms of size, null distribution and power using simulation. The simulation results show that the new statistic generally outperforms that of Lawrence.