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Articles 1381 - 1410 of 1733
Full-Text Articles in Economics
A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
Research Collection School Of Economics
Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades—the ’80s shock to Europe from the sharp increase of external real interest rates; the kind of speculative shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the ’90s: the prospect of new industries emerging in the future with needs for new capital; …
A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
Research Collection School Of Economics
In open-economy macroeconomics there is a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and there is a nonmonetary neoclassical theory thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades¡ªthe '80s shock to Europe taking the form of an external jump in real interest rates; the sort of shock experienced in the U.S. and parts of northern Europe in the second half of the '90s: the emerging prospect of new industries in the future …
Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun
Characterizing Exchange Rate Policy In East Asia: A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim, Wei Sun
Research Collection School Of Economics
Frankel and Wei (1994) developed and popularized a method for uncovering the implicit weights assigned to major international currencies constituting a currency basket. We extend the methodology in two dimensions: include regional competitive pressure and employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to overcome simultaneity bias. With these modifications, we confirm the prominent role of the US dollar in the exchange rate policy of East Asian economies beyond the short run. However, despite the high degree of commitment to nominal exchange rate stability prior to the crisis, fluctuations in most East Asian currencies are also significantly influenced by country specific shocks. …
Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho
Distance To Frontier And The Big Swings Of The Unemployment Rate: What Room Is Left For Monetary Policy?, Hian Teck Hoon, Kong Weng Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper builds upon Hoon and Phelps (1992, 1997) to ask how much of the evolution of the unemployment rate over several decades in country can be explained by real factors in an equilibrium model of the natural rate where country's productivity growth depends upon its distance from the world's technological leader. One motivating contemporary example includes the evolution of unemployment rates in Europe as it recovered from the second world war and caught up technologically to the US. Another example that may be less familiar to many people is Singapore (the second fastest growing economy from 1960 to 2000 …
Modelling Spatial Dependence And Social Interactions, Zhenlin Yang
Modelling Spatial Dependence And Social Interactions, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Spatial dependence or social interaction among economic agents or social actors, such as neighbourhood effects, copycatting, and peer group effects, has recently received increased attention from regional scientists, economists, econometricians, and statisticians.
Poverty Alleviation Through Geographic Targeting, Chris Elbers, Tomoki Fujii, Peter Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, Wesley Yin
Poverty Alleviation Through Geographic Targeting, Chris Elbers, Tomoki Fujii, Peter Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, Wesley Yin
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we employ recently completed “poverty maps” for three countries as tools for an ex ante evaluation of the distributional incidence of geographic targeting of public resources. We simulate the impact on poverty of transferring an exogenously given budget to geographically defined sub-groups of the population according to their relative poverty status. We find large gains from targeting smaller administrative units, such as districts or villages. However, these gains are still far from the poverty reduction that would be possible had the planners had access to information on household level income or consumption. Our results indicate that a …
Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips
Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Log periodogram (LP) regression is shown to be consistent and to have a mixed normal limit distribution when the memory parameter d=1. Gaussian errors are not required. The proof relies on a new result showing that asymptotically infinite collections of discrete Fourier transforms (dft's) of a short memory process at the fundamental frequencies in the vicinity of the origin can be treated as asymptotically independent normal variates, provided one does not include too many dft's in the collection.
Bayesian Analysis Of Dsge Models, Sungbae An, Frank Schorfheide
Bayesian Analysis Of Dsge Models, Sungbae An, Frank Schorfheide
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian model checking, posterior odds comparisons, and comparisons to vector autoregressions, as well as the non-linear estimation based on a second-order accurate model solution. These methods are applied to data generated from correctly specified and misspecified linearized DSGE models and a DSGE model that was solved with a second-order perturbation method.
Urban Rail Transit Ppps: Survey And Risk Assessment Of Recent Strategies, Sock-Yong Phang
Urban Rail Transit Ppps: Survey And Risk Assessment Of Recent Strategies, Sock-Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The proliferation of urban rail transit public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Latin America and Southeast Asia is a recent phenomenon. This paper first reviews the theoretical literature on the public procurement versus PPP decision in the context of rail transit and assesses the risks involved in entering these partnerships. The urban rail transit PPP approaches adopted in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, Singapore, Hong Kong, and London are described and classified into four broad approaches: (i) the development of new systems through Design-Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO), (ii) the concessioning of rail and subway services, (iii) the sale of state-owned operators …
A Unified Confidence Interval For Reliability-Related Quantities Of Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution, Zhenlin Yang, Min Xie, Augustine C.M. Wong
A Unified Confidence Interval For Reliability-Related Quantities Of Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution, Zhenlin Yang, Min Xie, Augustine C.M. Wong
Research Collection School Of Economics
Statistical inference methods for the Weibull parameters and their functions usually depend on extensive tables, and hence are rather inconvenient for the practical applications. In this paper, we propose a general method for constructing confidence intervals for the Weibull parameters and their functions, which eliminates the need for the extensive tables. The method is applied to obtain confidence intervals for the scale parameter, the mean-time-to-failure, the percentile function, and the reliability function. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that these intervals possess excellent finite sample properties, having coverage probabilities very close to their nominal levels, irrespective of the sample size and the degree …
Financial Liberalization And Monetary Policy Cooperation In East Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan
Financial Liberalization And Monetary Policy Cooperation In East Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter N. Kriz, Roberto S. Mariano, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
As the countries in East Asia embark on financial liberalization, a key issue that confronts policymakers is the greater complexity of risks that is injected into the financial system. In particular, capital account liberalization may potentially increase the vulnerability of individual countries to external financial shocks. This paper advocates the optimally cascading of financial liberalization that is consistent across three dimensions: extent of domestic financial liberalization; the degree of exchange rate flexibility; and the scope of capital account liberalization. Unless the process of liberalization is properly managed, it could provoke destabilizing capital flows and lead to volatile exchange rates. Smooth …
A Simple Approach To The Parametric Estimation Of Potentially Nonstationary Diffusions, Federico Bandi, Peter C. B. Phillips
A Simple Approach To The Parametric Estimation Of Potentially Nonstationary Diffusions, Federico Bandi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
A simple and robust approach is proposed for the parametric estimation of scalar homogeneous stochastic differential equations. We specify a parametric class of diffusions and estimate the parameters of interest by minimizing criteria based on the integrated squared difference between kernel estimates of the drift and diffusion functions and their parametric counterparts. The procedure does not require simulations or approximations to the true transition density and has the simplicity of standard nonlinear least-squares methods in discrete time. A complete asymptotic theory for the parametric estimates is developed. The limit theory relies on infill and long span asymptotics and is robust …
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Jun Yu
Simulation-Based Estimation Of Contingent-Claims Prices, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new methodology is proposed to estimate theoretical prices of financial contingent-claims whose values are dependent on some other underlying financial assets. In the literature the preferred choice of estimator is usually maximum likelihood (ML). ML has strong asymptotic justification but is not necessarily the best method in finite samples. The present paper proposes instead a simulation-based method that improves the finite sample performance of the ML estimator while maintaining its good asymptotic properties. The methods are implemented and evaluated here in the Black-Scholes option pricing model and in the Vasicek bond pricing model, but have wider applicability. Monte Carlo …
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the influence of global and regional factors on the conditional distribution of stock returns from six Asian markets, using factor models in which unexpected returns comprise global, regional and local shocks. The models allow for conditional heteroskedasticity and time-varying conditional skewness, and are used to measure mean, variance, and skewness spillovers. We find that incorporating time-varying conditional skewness improves the fit of our spillover models, and can alter measurements of variance spillovers. However, time-varying conditional skewness is mostly a local phenomenon; with exceptions, there is little spillover in skewness from global and regional factors.
Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Asian Currency Baskets: A Useful Surveillance Tool?, Charles Adams, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper considers whether an intra-regional currency basket and the associated divergence indicators could play a useful role in official exchange rate surveillance. Recently, proponents of an Asian currency basket have referred to the role the European Currency Unit played in constructing exchange rate divergence indicators as evidence of the usefulness of intra-regional currency baskets for exchange rate monitoring. The paper shows that such indicators have a number of features that can lead to them obscuring underlying changes in exchange rates and that the signals they emit will often be difficult to interpret. In addition, the use of regional currency …
Trade Agreements With Domestic Policies As Disguised Protection, Gea Myoung Lee
Trade Agreements With Domestic Policies As Disguised Protection, Gea Myoung Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
WTO rules prohibit “disguised protection” in the form of domestic policies. How then do governments cooperate over trade and domestic policies when none can verify whether a nation's domestic tax reduction is a protective measure or a reaction to a production externality? In this paper, each government privately observes whether a production externality associated with its import-competing good is high or low. This paper finds that in an optimal agreement, disguised protection with domestic policies is never used by governments with a high externality, and is never commonly realized. Moreover, in an optimal agreement, tariffs may be conditional on domestic …
Bias In Dynamic Panel Estimation With Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends And Cross Section Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Bias In Dynamic Panel Estimation With Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends And Cross Section Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
Explicit asymptotic bias formulae are given for dynamic panel regression estimators as the cross section sample size N --> ∞. The results extend earlier work by Nickell [1981. Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica 49, 1417-1426] and later authors in several directions that are relevant for practical work, including models with unit roots, deterministic trends, predetermined and exogenous regressors, and errors that may be cross sectionally dependent. The asymptotic bias is found to be so large when incidental linear trends are fitted and the time series sample size is small that it changes the sign of the autoregressive …
Long Run Variance Estimation And Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels With No Truncation, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin
Long Run Variance Estimation And Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels With No Truncation, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yixiao Sun, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new family of kernels is suggested for use in long run variance (LRV) estimation and robust regression testing. The kernels are constructed by taking powers of the Bartlett kernel and are intended to be used with no truncation (or bandwidth) parameter. As the power parameter ([rho]) increases, the kernels become very sharp at the origin and increasingly downweight values away from the origin, thereby achieving effects similar to a bandwidth parameter. Sharp origin kernels can be used in regression testing in much the same way as conventional kernels with no truncation, as suggested in the work of Kiefer and …
Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee
Monotonicity Conditions And Inequality Imputation For Sample-Selection And Non-Response Problems, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Under a sample selection or non-response problem, where a response variable y is observed only when a condition δ = 1 is met, the identified mean E(y|δ = 1) is not equal to the desired mean E(y). But the monotonicity condition E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y|δ = 0) yields an informative bound E(y|δ = 1) ≤ E(y), which is enough for certain inferences. For example, in a majority voting with δ being the vote-turnout, it is enough to know if E(y) > 0.5 or not, for which E(y|δ = 1) > 0.5 is sufficient under the monotonicity. The main question is then …
Two New Lessons From Asian Miracles, Hing-Man Leung
Two New Lessons From Asian Miracles, Hing-Man Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Four Asian economies – Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan – have grown at spectacular speeds adopting different strategies. Past debates focused on their growth takeoff. The present paper studies their future outlook. As an economy matures, sustaining economic performance requires innovation and technology upgrading. Hong Kong, under a minimalist administration, is now critically deficient in technology. Singapore, dependent on foreign multinationals, is struggling to become a creator and not just a user of technology. We seek to explain why Hong Kong and Singapore are so much less innovative than Korea and Taiwan.
Business Output And Business Experience: Evidence From China's Nongovernmental Businesses, Liangjun Su
Business Output And Business Experience: Evidence From China's Nongovernmental Businesses, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
We study the application of the Solow growth model in China's non-governmental businesses and propose a reasonable modification for it. Our analysis indicates that business experience is closely tied to the output of China's non-governmental businesses. Our major findings include: (1) the business experience has little overall impact on the elasticity of output with respect to labour; (2) the business experience has a large impact on the elasticity of output with respect to capital and the elasticity increases as the business experience increases; (3) the adjusted Solow residual that reflects technological progress exhibits a negative relationship with the business experience, …
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Christian Gourieroux, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size and large cross section sample size asymptotics. This paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference, shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. Monte Carlo studies show that our procedure achieves substantial bias reductions with only mild increases in variance, thereby substantially reducing root mean square errors. The method is compared with certain consistent estimators and is shown to have superior finite sample properties to the generalized method of …
Statistics With Estimated Parameters, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse, Zhidong Bai
Statistics With Estimated Parameters, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse, Zhidong Bai
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies a general problem of making inferences for functions of two sets of parameters where, when the first set is given, there exists a statistic with a known distribution. We study the distribution of this statistic when the first set of parameters is unknown and is replaced by an estimator. We show that under mild conditions the variance of the statistic is inflated when the unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is used, but deflated when the constrained MLE is used. The results are shown to be useful in hypothesis testing and confidence-interval construction in providing simpler and improved …
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Xing Jin, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Xing Jin, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The function form of a linear intertemporal relation between risk and return is suggested by Merton's [1973. Econometrica 41, 867–887] analytical work for instantaneous returns, whereas empirical studies have examined the nature of this relation using temporally aggregated data, i.e., daily, monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns. Our paper carefully examines the temporal aggregation effect on the validity of the linear specification of the risk–return relation at discrete horizons, and on its implications on the reliability of the resulting inference about the risk–return relation based on different observation intervals. Surprisingly, we show that, based on the standard Heston's [1993. Review …
To Use Or Not To Use?: Poverty Mapping In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii
To Use Or Not To Use?: Poverty Mapping In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Indeterminacy And Market Instability, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim
Indeterminacy And Market Instability, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Albert Rex Bergstrom: 1925-2005, Peter C. B. Phillips
Albert Rex Bergstrom: 1925-2005, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From A Unit Root Under Weak Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magadalinos
Limit Theory For Moderate Deviations From A Unit Root Under Weak Dependence, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magadalinos
Research Collection School Of Economics
An asymptotic theory is given for autoregressive time series with weakly dependent innovations and a root of the form rho_{n} = 1+c/n^{alpha}, involving moderate deviations from unity when alpha in (0,1) and c in R are constant parameters. The limit theory combines a functional law to a diffusion on D[0,infinity) and a central limit theorem. For c > 0, the limit theory of the first order serial correlation coefficient is Cauchy and is invariant to both the distribution and the dependence structure of the innovations. To our knowledge, this is the first invariance principle of its kind for explosive processes. The …
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Jin Xing, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Jin Xing, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The function form of a linear intertemporal relation between risk and return is suggested by Merton's [1973. Econometrica 41, 867–887] analytical work for instantaneous returns, whereas empirical studies have examined the nature of this relation using temporally aggregated data, i.e., daily, monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns. Our paper carefully examines the temporal aggregation effect on the validity of the linear specification of the risk–return relation at discrete horizons, and on its implications on the reliability of the resulting inference about the risk–return relation based on different observation intervals. Surprisingly, we show that, based on the standard Heston's [1993. Review …
Realized Daily Variance Of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu
Realized Daily Variance Of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …