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Articles 1351 - 1380 of 1733
Full-Text Articles in Economics
A Hybrid Approach To Case Teaching, Swee Liang Tan, Roy Jin Hou Ng
A Hybrid Approach To Case Teaching, Swee Liang Tan, Roy Jin Hou Ng
Research Collection School Of Economics
We structure case based teaching using a combination of computer-support technology and in-class activities. We create and design an on-line learning tool, Case Study On-line (CSOL) that enables instructor to structure the delivery of teaching resources and set up assignment tasks in the system. The tool enables tasks to be set in a way that they can be completed sequentially, and learning resources can be accessed only when required by students. Upon submission of their assignments, students can promptly receive instructor’s explanations to the tasks. Follow up activities take place in class, with the objective to promote active learning. The …
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Building Social Trust: A Human Capital Approach, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
Much evidence suggests individuals differ in their predisposition to cooperate, which is essentially a component of human capital. This paper examines the role of individual cooperative tendencies and their interactions with institutions in generating social trust; it also endogenizes cooperative tendencies using a human-capital investment model. Multiple equilibria and inefficiencies exist due to positive externalities. An innovative finding is that, when institutions are more effective in punishing defecting behaviors, more people invest in cooperative tendencies and hence the endogenous social trust is higher, though the equilibrium cooperative tendencies are lower. This paper provides a plausible explanation for many empirical and …
Dynamic Treatment Effect Analysis Of Tv Effects On Child Cognitive Development, Fali Huang
Dynamic Treatment Effect Analysis Of Tv Effects On Child Cognitive Development, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate whether TV watching at ages 6-7 and 8-9 affects cognitive development measured by math and reading scores at ages 8-9 using a rich childhood longitudinal sample from NLSY79. Dynamic panel data models are estimated to handle the unobserved child-specific factor, endogeneity of TV watching, and dynamic nature of the causal relation. A special emphasis is put on the last aspect where TV watching affects cognitive development which in turn affects the future TV watching. When this feedback occurs, it is not straightforward to identify and estimate the TV effect. We adopt estimation methods available in the biostatistics literature …
On The Segmentation Of Markets, Nicolas Laurent Jacquet, Serene Tan
On The Segmentation Of Markets, Nicolas Laurent Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper endogenizes the market structure of an economy with heterogeneous agents who want to form bilateral matches in the presence of search frictions and when utility is nontransferable. There exist infinitely many marketplaces, and each agent chooses which marketplace to be in: agents get to choose not only whom to match with but also whom they meet with. Perfect segmentation is obtained in equilibrium, where agents match with the first person they meet. All equilibria have the same matching pattern. Although perfect assortative matching is not obtained in equilibrium, the degree of assortativeness is greater than in standard models.
More Efficient Estimation Of Nonparametric Panel Data Models With Random Effects, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
More Efficient Estimation Of Nonparametric Panel Data Models With Random Effects, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a class of two-step estimators for nonparametric panel data models with random effects that are more efficient than the conventional least squares estimators. We establish asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators and derive the most efficient estimator in the class.
Forecasting The Car Penetration Rate (Cpr) In China: A Nonparametric Approach, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su
Forecasting The Car Penetration Rate (Cpr) In China: A Nonparametric Approach, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
With strong economic growth, the auto industry has made great breakthroughs in recent years and has become a backbone industry in China, while cars play an increasingly important role, and are now the principal part of the auto industry. Both China's government and academic circles take strong interest in the prediction of CPR (i.e. car penetration rate or cars per thousand people), which will be the main guidance for the future industry policy. We summarize the existing problems in recent research and propose to use nonparametric methods to estimate the CPR and its elasticity with respect to GDP per capita …
Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Some Empirics On Economic Growth Under Heterogeneous Technology, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new econometric approach to testing for economic growth convergence is overviewed. The method is applicable to panel data, involves a simple regression based one-sided t-test, and can be used to form a clustering algorithm to assess the existence of growth convergence clubs. The approach allows for heterogeneous technology, utilizes some new asymptotic theory for nonlinear dynamic factor models, and is easy to implement. Some background growth theory is given which shows the form of augmented Solow regression (ASR) equations in the presence of heterogeneous technology and explains sources of potential misspecification that can arise in conventional formulations of ASR …
Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios Of Reduced-Form Estimates, Myoung-Jae Lee, Pao-Li Chang
Avoiding Arbitrary Exclusion Restrictions Using Ratios Of Reduced-Form Estimates, Myoung-Jae Lee, Pao-Li Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We show how to obtain coherent structural-form (SF) exclusion restrictions using the reduced-form (RF) parameter ratios. It will be shown that an over-identified SF corresponds to a group of regressors sharing the same RF ratio value; those regressors should be excluded jointly from the SF. If there is no group structure, then the SF is just-identified; in this case, however, it is no longer clear which regressor should be excluded. Hence, just-identified SF’s are more arbitrary than over-identified SF’s in terms of exclusion restrictions. This is in stark contrast to the notion that the former is less arbitrary than the …
Employee Screening: Theory And Evidence, Fali Huang, Peter Cappelli
Employee Screening: Theory And Evidence, Fali Huang, Peter Cappelli
Research Collection School Of Economics
Arguably the fundamental problem faced by employers is how to elicit effort from employees. Most models suggest that employers meet this challenge by monitoring employees carefully to prevent shirking. But there is another option that relies on heterogeneity across employees, and that is to screen job candidates to find workers with a stronger work ethic who require less monitoring. This should be especially useful in work systems where monitoring by supervisors is more difficult, such as teamwork systems. We analyze the relationship between screening and monitoring in the context of a principal-agent model and test the theoretical results using a …
Un-Balanced Economic Growth, Hing-Man Leung
Un-Balanced Economic Growth, Hing-Man Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
Since the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is not always one, and since technical progress is not always Harrod-neutral, it is desirable to have an endogenous growth model that admits all sizes of the elasticity and all known technology modes. We derive an equation to do just that, fully describing the per capita income growth rate at all times. It shows a typical economy needing hundreds if not thousands of years to reach its long term growth rate, leading to the conclusion that even the short run may be very long indeed.
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Rose (2004) showed that the WTO or its predecessor, the GATT, did not promote trade, based on conventional econometric analysis of gravity-type equations of trade. We argue that conclusions regarding the GATT/WTO trade effect based on gravity-type equations are arbitrary and subject to parametric misspecifications. We propose using nonparametric matching methods to estimate the 'treatment effect' of GATT/WTO membership, and permutation-based inferential procedures for assessing statistical significance of the estimated effects. A sensitivity analysis following Rosenbaum (2002) is then used to evaluate the sensitivity of our estimation results to potential selection biases. Contrary to Rose (2004), we find the effect …
Modeling Country Risks: An Asian Perspective, Swee Liang Tan, G. K. Randolph Tan
Modeling Country Risks: An Asian Perspective, Swee Liang Tan, G. K. Randolph Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the use of the Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) as a means to track changes in the levels of investor confidence. It also assesses the probabilities of a country switching between different regimes using the transition probability matrix. A maximum of three possible levels or regimes of risk – low, intermediate and high volatility regimes, is considered. From the smoothed probabilities calculated for different regimes, this paper makes inferences about timings of debt crisis. Comparing Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia in particular, we date the onset and subsequent dissolution of crisis-induced panic. We give interpretations of …
Improved Maximum-Likelihood Estimation For The Common Shape Parameter Of Several Weibull Populations, Zhenlin Yang, Dennis K. J. Lin
Improved Maximum-Likelihood Estimation For The Common Shape Parameter Of Several Weibull Populations, Zhenlin Yang, Dennis K. J. Lin
Research Collection School Of Economics
The biasness problem of the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) of the common shape parameter of several Weibull populations is examined in detail. A modified MLE (MMLE) approach is proposed. In the case of complete and Type II censored data, the bias of the MLE can be substantial. This is noticeable even when the sample size is large. Such a bias increases rapidly as the degree of censorship increases and as more populations are involved. The proposed MMLE, however, is nearly unbiased and much more efficient than the MLE, irrespective of the degree of censorship, the sample sizes, and the number of …
Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang
Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper proposes a general empirical framework to estimate the protection-for-sale model, where the protection regime shifts according to a sector's market structure (perfectly or monop-olistically competitive). We base the protection structure on Grossman and Helpman (1994) for the subset of perfectly competitive sectors and on Chang (2005) for the subset of monop- olistically competitive sectors. The two protection regimes are simultaneously estimated with joint constraints. The results of the J-test consistently reject the homogeneous (perfect compe- tition) protection-for-sale model often adopted in previous literature and suggest a direction of improvement toward the proposed heterogeneous protection structure model.
On The Segmentation Of Markets, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
On The Segmentation Of Markets, Nicolas L. Jacquet, Serene Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper endogenizes the market structure of an economy with heterogeneous agents who want to form bilateral matches in the presence of search frictions and when utility is nontransferable. There exist infinitely many marketplaces, and each agent chooses which marketplace to be in: agents get to choose not only whom to match with but also whom they meet with. Perfect segmentation is obtained in equilibrium, where agents match with the first person they meet. All equilibria have the same matching pattern. Although perfect assortative matching is not obtained in equilibrium, the degree of assortativeness is greater than in standard models.
Regression With Slowly Varying Regressors And Nonlinear Trends, Peter C. B. Phillips
Regression With Slowly Varying Regressors And Nonlinear Trends, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Slowly varying (SV) regressors arise commonly in empirical econometric work, particularly in the form of semilogarithmic regression and log periodogram regression. These regressors are asymptotically collinear. Usual regression formulas for asymptotic standard errors are shown to remain valid, but rates of convergence are affected and the limit distribution of the regression coefficients is shown to be one dimensional. Some asymptotic representations of partial sums of SV functions and central limit theorems with SV weights are given that assist in the development of a regression theory. Multivariate regression and polynomial regression with SV functions are considered and shown to be equivalent, …
To Trust Or To Monitor: A Dynamic Analysis, Fali Huang
To Trust Or To Monitor: A Dynamic Analysis, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In a principal-agent framework, principals can mitigate moral hazard problems not only through extrinsic incentives such as monitoring, but also through agents’ intrinsic trustworthiness. Their relative usage, however, changes over time and varies across societies. This paper attempts to explain this phenomenon by endogenizing agent trustworthiness as a response to potential returns. When monitoring becomes relatively cheaper over time, agents acquire lower trustworthiness, which may actually drive up the overall governance cost in society. Across societies, those giving employees lower weights in choosing governance methods tend to have higher monitoring intensities and lower trust. These results are consistent with the …
Does Tv Affect Child Cognitive Development?, Fali Huang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Does Tv Affect Child Cognitive Development?, Fali Huang, Myoung-Jae Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate whether TV watching at ages 6-7 and 8-9 affects cognitive development measured by math and reading scores at ages 8-9 using a rich childhood longitudinal sample from NLSY79. Dynamic panel data models are estimated to handle the unobserved child-specific factor, endogeneity of TV watching, and dynamic nature of the causal relation. A special emphasis is put on the last aspect where TV watching affects cognitive development which in turn affects the future TV watching. When this feedback occurs, it is not straightforward to identify and estimate the TV effect. We adopt estimation methods available in the biostatistics literature …
A Welfare Analysis Of Capital Account Liberalization, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
A Welfare Analysis Of Capital Account Liberalization, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop a model of a small open economy with credit market frictions to analyze the consequences of capital account liberalization. We show that nancial opening facilitates the in ows of cheap foreign funds and improves production e ciency. Reforms increasing labor market exibility can further improve such e ciency gains. However, capital account liberalization also has important distributional consequences. Speci cally, it may be impossible to use public transfers to fully compensate the loss of those negatively a ected by capital account liberalization. This explains why nancial opening often meets erce opposition even though it leads to e ciency …
The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development, Fali Huang
The Coevolution Of Economic And Political Development, Fali Huang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper establishes a simple model of long run economic and political development, which is driven by the inherent technical features of di¤erent production factors and the political con‡icts among factor owners on how to divide the outputs. The main production factor in economy evolves from land to physical capital and then to human capital, which enables their respective owners (landlords, capitalists, and workers) to gain political power in the same sequence, shaping the political development path from monarchy to oligarchy and …nally to democracy with full su¤rage. When it is too costly for any group of factor owners to …
A Corrected Plug-In Method For Quantile Interval Construction Through A Transformed Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse
A Corrected Plug-In Method For Quantile Interval Construction Through A Transformed Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a corrected plug-in method for constructing confidence intervals of the conditional quantiles of an original response variable through a transformed regression with heteroscedastic errors. The interval is easy to compute. Factors affecting the magnitude of the correction are examined analytically through the special case of Box-Cox regression. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works well in general and is superior over the commonly used delta method and the quantile regression method. An empirical application is presented. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Estimation Of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression, Pao Li Chang, Shinichi Sakata
Estimation Of Impulse Response Functions Using Long Autoregression, Pao Li Chang, Shinichi Sakata
Research Collection School Of Economics
This article proposes an alternative methodology to estimate impulse response functions without imposing parametric restrictions. The impulse responses are estimated by regressing the series of interest on estimated innovations, which are the residuals obtained from a prior-stage ‘long autoregression.’ We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. The proposed estimator is closely related to the estimator of Jordà (2005, American Economic Review 95, 161–182). Our large sample analysis, as a byproduct, establishes the asymptotic equivalence between Jordà's estimator and our estimator, and provides justifications for the statistical inference method used in Jordà (2005).
The Evolution And Utilization Of The Gatt/Wto Dispute Settlement Mechanism, Pao-Li Chang
The Evolution And Utilization Of The Gatt/Wto Dispute Settlement Mechanism, Pao-Li Chang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a theoretical framework of dispute settlement to explain the surge in blocking incidence of GATT panel reports during the 1980s and the variations in withdrawn incidence versus total disputes across different decades of the GATT regime. The study first suggests the role of the degree of legal controversy over a panel ruling in determining countries' incentives to block (appeal) a panel report under the GATT (WTO) regime. The study then analyzes the effects of political power on countries' incentives to use, and their interactions in using, the dispute settlement mechanism, when two-sided asymmetric information exists regarding panel …
Financial Variables As Predictors Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Financial Variables As Predictors Of Real Output Growth, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We investigate two methods for using daily stock returns to forecast, and update forecasts of, quarterly real output growth. Both methods aggregate daily returns in some manner to form a single stock market variable. We consider (i) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model for real output growth with daily returns using a nonparametric Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) setting, and (ii) augmenting the quarterly AR(1) model with the most recent r -day returns as an additional predictor. We discover that adding low frequency stock returns (up to annual returns, depending on forecast horizon) to a quarterly AR(1) model improves forecasts of output …
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Jun Yu
Indirect Inference For Dynamic Panel Models, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is well-known that maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of the autoregressive parameter of a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects is inconsistent under fixed time series sample size (T) and large cross section sample size (N) asymptotics. The estimation bias is particularly relevant in practical applications when T is small and the autoregressive parameter is close to unity. The present paper proposes a general, computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on indirect inference (Gouriéroux et al., 1993), shows unbiasedness and analyzes efficiency. The method is implemented in a simple linear dynamic panel model, but has wider …
Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Zhenlin Yang
Instrumental Variable Quantile Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose an instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimator for spatial autoregressive (SAR) models. Like the GMM estimators of Lin and Lee (2006) and Kelejian and Prucha (2006), the IVQR estimator is robust against heteroscedasticity. Unlike the GMM estimators, the IVQR estimator is also robust against outliers and requires weaker moment conditions. More importantly, it allows us to characterize the heterogeneous impact of variables on different points (quantiles) of a response distribution. We derive the limiting distribution of the new estimator. Simulation results show that the new estimator performs well in finite samples at various quantile points. In the special …
A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
A Structuralist Model Of The Small Open Economy In The Short, Medium And Long Run, Hian Teck Hoon, Edmund S. Phelps
Research Collection School Of Economics
Open-economy macroeconomics contains a monetary model in the Keynesian tradition that is deemed serviceable for analyzing the short run and a nonmonetary neoclassical model thought capable of handling the long run. But do the Keynesian and neoclassical models meet the challenges thrown out by the main events of the past few decades? We first indicate that the effects of these shocks on the open economy are not well captured by either the standard Keynesian model or the standard neoclassical theory. Next we provide a careful development of a nonmonetary model of the equilibrium path of the real exchange rate, share …
Nonlinear Filters Based On Taylor Series Expansions, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano
Nonlinear Filters Based On Taylor Series Expansions, Hisashi Tanizaki, Roberto S. Mariano
Research Collection School Of Economics
The nonlinear filters based on Taylor series approximation are broadly used for computational simplicity, even though their filtering estimates are clearly biased. In this paper, first, we analyze what is approximated when we apply the expanded nonlinear functions to the standard linear recursive Kalman filter algorithm. Next, since the state variable αt and αt-t are approximated as a conditional normal distribution given information up to time t - 1 (i.e., It-1) in approximation of the Taylor series expansion, it might be appropriate to evaluate each expectation by generating normal random numbers of αt and α …
Autarkic Indeterminacy And Trade Determinacy, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim
Autarkic Indeterminacy And Trade Determinacy, Kong Weng Ho, Nicholas Sim
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.