Economics Commons^™

Private Philanthropy And The Economics Of Public Radio, Arthur C. Brooks

Center for Policy Research

Public radio in the United States receives both direct and indirect government funding. Direct subsidies come in the form of lump-sum and matching grants, while indirect subsidies proceed from tax revenues foregone on deductible private donations. Each of these sources of government money impacts charitable giving to public radio. This paper estimates both of these effects, using data on a national sample of public radio stations in the United States from 1990-96. I find that public funding to stations has a positive impact on private giving, but this impact rapidly decreases as the level of government subsidies increases, ultimately becoming …

Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration Heteroskedasticity Models With Estimates Of The Variances Of Foreign Exchange Rates, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

This paper proposes a robust estimation procedure, the bounded influence estimate (BIS), which is robust against departure from the conditional normality of the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models to describe the behavior of exchange rates. First, the BIE identifies the additive outliers (AO, e.g., Fox 1972) caused by abnormal information arrivals which may be triggered by changes in domestic policies and international shocks. Identification of outliers allows us to analyze the major economic and political factors that contribute directly to the dramatic changes in exchange rates. Second, the performance of the BIE is compared with the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) …

Antidepressent Treatment For Depression: Total Charges And Therapy Duration, Deborah G. Dobrez, Catherine A. Melfi, Thomas W. Croghan, Thomas J. Kniesner, Robert L. Obenchain

Center for Policy Research

Background: The economic costs of depression are significant, both the direct medical costs of care and the indirect costs of lost productivity. Empirical studies of antidepressant costeffectiveness suggest that the use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) may be no more costly than tricyclic antidepressants (TCA), will improve tolerability, and is associated with longer therapy duration. However the success of depression care usually involves multiple factors, including source of care, type of care, and patient characteristics, in addition to drug choice. The cost-effective mix of antidepressant therapy components is unclear.

Aims of the Study: Our study evaluates cost and antidepressant-continuity …

Chasing The Elderly: Can State And Local Governments Attract Recent Retirees?, William Duncombe, Mark Robbins, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

Recruiting recent retirees to relocate from elsewhere has become an important economic development strategy in an increasing number of states. State governments have planned or enacted a variety of tax and fee incentives to lure retirees. The objective of this paper is to determine whether states can, in fact, influence the retirement destination of elder households using fiscal tools. To estimate the determinants of retiree location decisions we have developed an extensive data set on county attributes, and a methodology for estimating an individual-level discrete-choice model for a very large number of potential locations. Using 1990 county-to-county migration data, we …

Association Between Body Size And Mortality In Later Life, Christine L. Himes

Center for Policy Research

The rising prevalence of obesity in the United States has focused attention on the health consequences of excess weight. Obesity is linked to many of the major causes of death in the United States, including heart disease, some types of cancer, strokes, diabetes, and atherosclerosis. However, the effects of body size on mortality and health among the elderly are much less clear. This paper extends our current understanding of the relationship between body size and mortality by using two nationally representative, longitudinal datasets of individuals at older ages. These analyses indicate that obesity may not contribute greatly to increased mortality …

Patterns Of Time Use Of People Age 55 To 64 Years Old: Some Cross-National Comparisons, Anne H. Gauthier, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Objectives. This paper examines the patterns of time use of adults age 55 to 64 years old in six countries: Austria, Canada, Finland, Italy, Sweden, and the United States. It examines the discontinuity in daily activities by employment status and gender. Methods. The paper uses nationally representative samples from time use surveys carried out in each country. We compute aggregate patterns of time use by employment status and gender for seven categories of activities: personal activities, paid work, unpaid work, housework, social leisure, active leisure, and passive leisure. We also compute dissimilarity indices to measure the degree of discontinuity in …

Worldwide Population Aging: Endogenous Policy Formation And Capital Market Transmissions In The Presence Of Symmetric Demographic Shocks, Mehmet Serkan Tosun

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines the transition effects of population aging in more developed regions that is also expected to occur in developing regions in the near future. We address these effects by exploring the influences of internationally mobile capital and a politically responsive fiscal policy in a two-country overlapping generations model. Our results show that the combination of capital mobility and endogenous fiscal policy play an important role in how economies respond to population aging. Capital mobility has consumption smoothing effects but endogenous fiscal policy is the key factor in creating asymmetries between countries. The interaction of the two may even …

Microdata Panel Data And Public Policy: National And Cross-National Perspectives, Richard V. Burkhauser

Center for Policy Research

This paper focuses on the movement of data-based social policy analysis from a single-country cross-section frame to a multi-country panel frame. It provides examples of policy insights this movement to panel data has permitted, both with respect to economic well-being and behavior--using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), the British Household Panel Study (BHPS), the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). It also suggests fruitful areas for future panel data-based policy research.

Chronic Illness And Health Insurance-Related Job Lock, Kevin T. Stroupe, Eleanor D. Kinney, Thomas J. Kniesner

Center for Policy Research

We examine job duration patterns for evidence of health insurance-related job lock among chronically ill workers or workers with a chronically ill family member. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we allow for more general insurance effects than in the existing literature to indicate the impact of health insurance and health status on workers' job durations. We use data for workers in Indiana predating the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) to examine the potential impact of HIPAA on job mobility. Chronic illness reduced job mobility by about 40 percent among the workers in our sample who relied on their …

Shrinking Kin Networks In Italy Due To Sustained Low Fertility, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

Among the closely watched demographic trends of the late 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertility rates throughout much of the world. Italy presents a particularly interesting case for study: in 1960, Italy’s total fertility rate (TFR) was 2.41; by 1995 it had fallen to 1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050 Italy will be the second oldest country in the world, with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older for each person under age 15. Besides overall population aging, another implication of sustained low fertility is smaller families and kin groups. We investigate the consequences of projected changes …

Exploring The Effect Of Welfare Reform Implementation On The Attainment Of Policy Goals: An Examination Of Michigan's Counties, Jodi Sandfort

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents a cross-sectional examination of the implementation conditions within Michigan during the first year following the passage of federal welfare reform. It asks the question, “Do implementation factors in the welfare system quantitatively influence the achievement of public policy goals?” Drawing on data from 82 counties, this analysis provides an exploratory, multivariate model that controls for environmental factors outside of the influence of program implementers and examines the effects of macro- and micro-implementation conditions on an outcome desired by policy reforms. The results suggest that implementation factors do have a statistically discernible relationship to proportion of a county’s …

Stability And Change In The Living Arrangements Of Older Italian Women, 1990-1995, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

In this work we analyze the living arrangements of elderly unmarried women in Italy. We use data from three surveys, collected in 1990, 1994, and 1995 by the Italian statistical agency ISTAT. We consider unmarried women aged 65 and older, and three household types (living alone, with children, or with others), taking into account the availability of children with whom they might share a household. During this period the percentage of elderly living alone fell slightly. We investigate these patterns with a structural analysis based on multinomial models. Results indicate that some individual variables (living in southern Italy, health status) …

Estimating The Income Effect On Retirement, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One of the most important issues in the debate over Social Security is how various changes in the system would change retirement behavior. A critical parameter in this context is the income effect on retirement— how a change in income affects retirement behavior, ceteris paribus. To estimate the income effect, we examine tax-return generated data on the labor force activity of a group of older people before and after they receive inheritances. The results are consistent with the notion that income effects are small. Neither retirement decisions nor the magnitude of earnings conditional on working seem to be affected very …

Employee-Based Versus Employer-Based Subsidies To Low-Wage Workers: A Public Finance Perspective, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

We revisit the relative merits of employee-based versus employer-based labor market subsidies. While conventional analyses stress the equivalence of these approaches, we find a modest preference for employee-based approaches. Because the population of low-wage workers overlaps, but is not identical to, the populations of low-skill or low-income workers, simple employer-based approaches are likely to be poorly targeted. Targeting may be improved by identification of eligible workers, but identification itself raises the possibility of detrimental stigma associated with the program. When combined with lower participation rates among firms than among households, the size of employer-based subsidies needed to match the outcome …

A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of the research described in this report is to produce an econometric model of the Upstate New York economy and two metropolitan areas within it—Albany and Syracuse. The model is intended to satisfy three main criteria. First, the model should be capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the local economy. This simply reflects the widely held belief that the local economy’s response to various external forces and policies is unlikely to be immediate. Second, the model ought to be capable of generating short-run forecasts. In particular, quarterly forecasts for one or two years are preferred to long-run …

Relative Cohort Size: Source Of A Unifying Theory Of Global Fertility Transition, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using United Nations estimates of age structure and vital rates for nearly 200 nations at five-year intervals from 1950 through 1995, this paper demonstrates how changes in relative cohort size appear to have affected patterns of fertility across nations since 1950--not just in developed countries, but perhaps even more importantly in countries as they pass through the demographic transition. The increase in relative cohort size (defined as the proportion of the population aged 15 to 24 relative to that aged 25 to 59) which occurs as a result of declining mortality rates among children and young adults during the demographic …

The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns Of Consumptions And Savings In The United States?, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using detailed estimates of personal consumption expenditures at the state level for 1900, 1929, 1970, and 1982 developed by Stanley Lebergott, this paper demonstrates that the passage of the Baby Boom from childhood through the teen years and into family formation would have caused market swings in patterns of aggregate consumption and savings in the United States during the past 50 years. The effect of age structure on personal consumption expenditures is estimated using population by single year of age from 0 to 85, revealing the expected pattern of life cycle consumption and savings in the adult years. In addition, …

Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange

Center for Policy Research

This paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies. First, the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent and nature of agglomerative externalities. Previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale. Second, the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by Saxenian (1994). This is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered. Results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial …

The Fortune Of One's Birth: Relative Cohort Size And The Youth Labor Market In The United States, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

Using two different measures of relative cohort size--one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other the ratio of young to prime-age adults in the United States in that year--it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past 33 years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes …

Cash Constraints And Business Start-Ups: Deutschmarks Versus Dollars, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

In this paper we analyze microdata to explore differences in the rates at which American and German workers leave their salaried jobs to become self-employed. We document that the rate of self-employment is lower in Germany than in the U.S., and the rate of transition from wage-earning to self-employment is lower as well. We find evidence that German workers face liquidity constraints that are more severe than those of their American counterparts. Further, the difference in transition rates cannot be attributed to observable differences between German and American workers.

The Role Of Relative Cohort Size And Relative Income In The Demographic Transition, Diane J. Macunovich

Center for Policy Research

This paper summarizes the results of other analyses by the author with regard to the importance of relative cohort size (RCS) in determining male relative income (the income of young adults relative to prime-age workers) and general patterns of economic growth, and in turn influencing fertility in the currently more-developed nations. It then goes on to demonstrate that these same effects appear to have been operating in all of the 100-odd nations which have experienced the fertility transition since 1950. Parameter estimates based on the experience of all 189 countries identified by the United Nations between 1950 and 1995 are …

Testing The Stability Of A Production Function With Urbanization As A Shift Factor: An Application Of Non-Stationary Panel Data Techniques, Suzanne Mccoskey, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

Urban economists have long sought to explain the relationship between urbanization levels and output. In this paper we revisit this question and test the long-run stability of a production function with urbanization using non-stationary panel data techniques. Our results show that a long-run relationship between urbanization output per worker and capital per worker cannot be rejected for either our sample of 30 developing countries or our sample of 22 developed countries. In addition, we estimate the long-run average effects on GDPW of urbanization and capital. These results offer newer insights and potential for dynamic urban models than the simple cross-section …

Traditionality, Modernity, And Household Composition: Parent-Child Coresidence In Contemporary Turkey, Hakan Aykan, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

We investigate the patterns and correlates of currently married adult children’s coresidence with their parents in Turkey, using data from the 1993 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We are particularly interested in “traditional” patterns of coresidence—that is, coresidence with one or both of the husband’s parents—and the effects of variables measuring traditionality at the individual and contextual levels on coresidence with any parent, and with the husband’s parents. The results indicate that coresidence among currently married children is not the norm. However, the odds of coresidence with the husband’s parents, given that a couple coresides with any parent, are very …

Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao

Center for Policy Research

Nationally representative estimates of the prospective risk of entry into a nursing home and the likelihood of residing in a nursing home are obtained using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging: 1984-1990. The roles of demographic characteristics, kin availability, and health status in determining entry into and residence in nursing homes is examined. Caregivers facilitate community residence and reduce the risk of nursing home entry for those with functional limitations. Dementia in combination with functional limitations increases the risk of nursing home entry.

Intergenerational Co-Residence And Children's Incomes, Thomas A. Dunn, John W. Phillips

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines co-residence arrangements between older parents and their adult children. We sketch a model of the co-residence choice that accounts for the preferences of the parent and the child and incorporates parental altruism and demands for housing, goods, and privacy. The model predicts that poorer, unmarried or childless siblings are more likely than their siblings to co-reside. The empirical analysis exploits the information provided by respondents in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey about all of their children living in and outside their household. Indeed, we find that poorer siblings are more likely …

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One criticism of the estate tax is that it prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises onto their children. The problem is that it may be difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. A natural question is why individuals with such concerns do not purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities. This paper examines whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, other things being the same, business owners purchase more life insurance than other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are …

When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

Incorporating random group effects has proven important to making correct statistical inferences about factors that only vary across groups. We note that it is possible to have more than one random effect in models using cross-sectional data and that these random effects could be correlated, unlike in the typical panel data situation. Extending the standard multiple random effects model in this way is greatly simplified by using the two-step estimator we develop. Our application to an elderly migration flow model provides an intuitive example of cross-correlated random group effects and demonstrates the ease of our estimator, as well as highlighting …

Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

The elderly’s unique economic situation makes some government expenditures more attractive and some forms of taxation less burdensome than others. This research investigates whether elderly migration is affected by state fiscal policies and discusses the possible consequences, both of which likely differ between younger and older elderly. Using state-to-state migration flows, we identify which states are gaining and losing younger versus older elderly people. We then estimate the migration flows as a function of the states’ amenities, cost of living, composition of government spending and alternative specifications of the tax system. We find that elderly migration is influenced by state …

Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers

Center for Policy Research

The question of how entrepreneurship relates to income mobility is cogent given the current public debate about the sources of income inequality and mobility in United States society. We examine how experience with entrepreneurship has affected an individual’s place in the earnings distribution. Our basic tack is to follow individuals’ positions in the income distribution over time, and to see how their mobility (or lack thereof) was affected by involvement with entrepreneurship. Our main finding is that for low-income individuals there is some merit to the notion that the self-employed moved ahead in the earnings distribution relative to those who …

Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their use of labor. We analyze the income tax returns of a large number of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates associated with that law affected their decisions to hire labor and the size of their wage bills. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on the probability that an entrepreneur hires workers. Raising the entrepreneur’s “tax price” (one minus the marginal tax rate) by 10 percent …