Economics Commons^™

Estimating Models Of Complex Fdi: Are There Third-Country Effects?, Badi H. Baltagi, Peter Egger, Michael Pfaffermayr

Center for Policy Research

The recent general equilibrium theory of trade and multinationals emphasizes the importance of third countries and the complex integration strategies of multinationals. Little has been done to test this theory empirically. This paper attempts to rectify this situation by considering not only bilateral determinants, but also spatially weighted third-country determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI). Since the dependency among host markets is particularly related to multinationals' trade between them, we use trade costs (distances) as spatial weights. Using panel data on U.S. industries and host countries observed over the 1989-1999 period, we estimate a "complex FDI" version of the knowledge-capital …

Labor Supply With Social Interactions: Econometric Estimates And Their Tax Policy Implications, Andrew Grodner, Thomas Kniesner

Center for Policy Research

Our research fleshes out econometric details of examining possible social interactions in labor supply. We look for a response of a person's hours worked to hours worked in the labor market reference group, which includes those with similar age, family structure, and location. We identify endogenous spillovers by instrumenting average hours worked in the reference group with hours worked in neighboring reference groups. Estimates of the canonical labor supply model indicate positive economically important spillovers for adult men. The estimated total wage elasticity of labor supply is 0.22, where 0.08 is the exogenous wage change effect and 0.14 is the …

Cox-Mcfadden Partial And Marginal Likelihoods For The Proportional Hazard Model With Random Effects, Jan Ondrich

Center for Policy Research

In survival analysis, Cox's name is associated with the partial likelihood technique that allows consistent estimation of proportional hazard scale parameters without specifying a duration dependence baseline. In discrete choice analysis, McFadden's name is associated with the generalized extreme-value (GEV) class of logistic choice models that relax the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption. This paper shows that the mixed class of proportional hazard specifications allowing consistent estimation of scale and mixing parameters using partial likelihood is isomorphic to the GEV class. Independent censoring is allowed and I discuss approximations to the partial likelihood in the presence of ties. Finally, the …

Why Do Real Estate Brokers Continue To Discriminate? Evidence From The 2000 Housing Discrimination Study, Bo Zhao, Jan Ondrich, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies racial and ethnic discrimination in discrete choices by real estate brokers using national audit data from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study. It uses a fixed effects logit model to estimate the probability that discrimination occurs and to study the causes of discrimination. The data set makes it possible to control for auditors' actual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, along with the characteristics assigned for the purposes of the audit. The study finds that discrimination continues to be strong but also documents a downward trend in both the scope and incidence of discrimination since 1989. The estimations also identify …

Calculating The Added Costs Of Educating Disadvantaged Students, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

Simulation-Based Two-Step Estimation With Endogenous Regressors, Kamhon Kan, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

This paper considers models with latent/discrete endogenous regressors and presents a simulation-based two-step (STS) estimator. The endogeneity is corrected by adopting a simulation-based control function approach. The first step consists of simulating the residuals of the reduced-form equation for endogenous regressors. The second step is a regression model (linear, latent or discrete) with the simulated residual as an additional regressor. In this paper we develop the asymptotic theory for the STS estimator and its rate of convergence.

On The Estimation And Inference Of A Panel Cointegration Model With Cross-Sectional Dependence, Jushan Bai, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

Most of the existing literature on panel data cointegration assumes cross-sectional independence, an assumption that is difficult to satisfy. This paper studies panel cointegration under cross-sectional dependence, which is characterized by a factor structure. We derive the limiting distribution of a fully modified estimator for the panel cointegrating coefficients. We also propose a continuous-updated fully modified (CUP-FM) estimator). Monte Carlo results show that the CUP-FM estimator has better small sample properties than the two-step FM (2S-FM) and OLS estimators.

Do Credit Market Barriers Exist For Minority And Women Entrepreneurs?, Lloyd Blanchard, Bo Zhao, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines whether methodological deficiencies in the literature on discrimination in small business credit markets have a significant impact on the estimation of discrimination and provides a preliminary investigation into the causes of discrimination in these markets. We find substantial, statistically significant evidence of discrimination in loan approval against black-owned and Hispanic-owned businesses in 1998 with additional control variables, with a variety of different specifications, and with a simultaneous model of the application and loan-denial decisions. We also find that discrimination in small business lending may take the form of statistical discrimination, driven by lenders' stereotypes about the ability …

Ranking Inequality: Applications Of Multivariate Subset Selection, William C. Horrace, Joseph T. Marchand, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Inequality measures are often presented in the form of a rank ordering to highlight their relative magnitudes. However, a rank ordering may produce misleading inference, because the inequality measures themselves are statistical estimators with different standard errors, and because a rank ordering necessarily implies multiple comparisons across all measures. Within this setting, if differences between several inequality measures are *simultaneously* and statistically insignificant, the interpretation of the ranking is changed. This study uses a multivariate subset selection procedure to make simultaneous distinctions across inequality measures at a pre-specified confidence level. Three applications of this procedure are explored using country-level data …

Estimating The Cost Of An Adequate Education, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

The Cfe Case, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

The Effect Of Income Taxation On Consumption And Labor Supply, James P. Ziliak, Thomas J. Kniesner

Center for Policy Research

We estimate the incentive effects of income taxation in a life-cycle model of consumption and labor supply that relaxes the standard assumption of strong separability within periods. Our model permits identification of both within-period preference parameters and lifecycle preference parameters such as the inter-temporal substitution elasticity. Results indicate that consumption and hours worked are direct complements in utility, and both increase with an increase in the after-tax share and with a compensated increase in the net wage. The compensated net wage elasticity is about 0.3, nearly double the standard estimates for men in the United States that ignore within-period non-separability …

Taxes, Deadweight Loss And Intertemporal Female Labor Supply: Evidence From Panel Data, Anil Kumar

Center for Policy Research

Very few existing studies have estimated female labor supply elasticities using a U.S. panel data set, although cross-sectional studies abound. Also, most existing studies have done so in a static framework. I make an attempt to fill the gap in this literature by estimating a lifecycle-consistent specification with taxes, in a limited dependent variable framework, on a panel of married females from the PSID. Both parametric random effects and semi parametric fixed effects methods are applied. I find evidence of larger substitution effects than found in female labor supply literature with taxes, suggesting considerable distortionary effects from income taxation. The …

Data Mining Mining Data: Msha Enforcement Efforts, Underground Coal Mine Safety, And New Health Policy Implications, Thomas J. Kniesner, John D. Leeth

Center for Policy Research

Studies of industrial safety regulations, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) in particular, often find little effect on worker safety. Critics of the regulatory approach argue that safety standards have little to do with industrial injuries and defenders of the regulatory approach cite infrequent inspections and low fines for violating safety standards. We use recently assembled data from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) concerning underground coal mine production, safety inspections, and workplace injuries to shed new light on the regulatory approach to workplace safety. Because all underground coal mines are inspected at least once per quarter, MSHA regulations …

Geography, Industrial Organization, And Agglomeration, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange

Center for Policy Research

This paper makes two contributions to the empirical literature on agglomeration economies. First, the paper uses a unique and rich database in conjunction with mapping software to measure the geographic extent of agglomerative externalities. Previous papers have been forced to assume that agglomeration economies are club goods that operate at a metropolitan scale. Second, the paper tests for the existence of organizational agglomeration economies of the kind studied qualitatively by Saxenian (1994). This is a potentially important source of increasing returns that previous empirical work has not considered. Results indicate that localization economies attenuate rapidly and that industrial organization affects …

Agglomeration, Labor Supply, And The Urban Rat Race, Stuart S. Rosenthal, William C. Strange

Center for Policy Research

This paper establishes the existence of a previously overlooked relationship between agglomeration and hours worked. Among non-professionals, hours worked decrease with the density of workers in the same occupation. Among professionals, a positive relationship is found. This relationship is twice as strong for the young as for the middle-aged. Moreover, young professional hours worked are shown to be especially sensitive to the presence of rivals. We show that these patterns are consistent with the selection of hard workers into cities and the high productivity of agglomerated labor. The behavior of young professionals is also consistent with the presence of keen …

Entrepreneurship And Economic Growth: The Proof Is In The Productivity, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Chihwa Kao

Center for Policy Research

Popular and policy discussions have focused extensively on "entrepreneurship." While entrepreneurship is often viewed from the perspective of the individual's benefits--an increase in standard of living, flexibility in hours, and so forth--much of the policy interest derives from the presumption that entrepreneurs provide economy-wide benefits in the form of new products, lower prices, innovations, and increased productivity. How large are these effects? Using a rich panel of state-level data, we quantify the relationship between productivity growth--by state and by industry--and entrepreneurship. Specifically, we use state-of-the-art econometric techniques for panel data to determine whether variations in the birth rate and death …

On The Measurment Of Job Risk In Hedonic Wage Models, Dan Black, Thomas J. Kniesner

Center for Policy Research

We examine the incidence, form, and research consequences of measurement error in measure of fatal injury risk in United States workplaces using both BLS and NIOSH data. We find evidence of substantial measurement errors in the fatality risk researchers attach to individual workers when estimating the implicit price of risk and the value of a statistical life. We first examine possible classical attenuation bias in the fatality risk coefficient. However, because we also find non-classical measurement error that differs across multiple risk measures and is not independent of other regressors, more complex statistical procedures than a standard instrumental variables estimator …

Why Relative Economic Position Does Not Matter: A Cost Benenit Analysis, Thomas J. Kniesner, W. Kip Viscusi

Center for Policy Research

The current debate over cost-benefit concerns in agencies’ evaluations of government regulations is not so much whether to consider costs and benefits at all but rather what belongs in the estimated costs and benefits. Overlaid is the long-standing belief that the distribution of costs and benefits needs some consideration in policy evaluations. In a recent article in the University of Chicago Law Review, Robert Frank and Cass Sunstein proposed a relatively simple method for adding distributional concerns to policy evaluation that enlarges the typically constructed estimates of the individual’s willingness to pay for safer jobs or safer products. One might …

Globalization, Inequality, And The Rich Countries Of The G-20: Evidence From The Luxembourg Income Study (Lis), Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of this study is to summarize and comment upon what we know about the determinants of both the level and trend in economic inequality over the past two decades, and to relate these findings to the progress of globalization in these nations. While the fruits of economic progress in rich nations have not been equally spread, we argue that most citizens enrich Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations have benefited from the trend toward global economic progress. We begin with a summary of the differences in overall economic inequality within the G-20 nations based on LIS …

Contracting With Limited Commitment: Evidence From Employment-Based Health Insurance Contracts, Keith J. Crocker, John R. Moran

Center for Policy Research

When an individual's health status is observable, but evolving over time, the key to maintaining a successful health insurance arrangement is to have the healthier members of the group cross-subsidize those who experience adverse health outcomes. We argue that impediments to worker mobility may serve to mitigate the attrition of healthy individuals from employer-sponsored insurance pools, thereby creating a de facto commitment mechanism that allows for more complete insurance of health risks than would be possible in the absence of such frictions. Using data on health insurance contracts obtained from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey, we find that the …

Explicit Versus Implicit Income, Thomas J. Kniesner, James P. Ziliak

Center for Policy Research

By supplementing income explicitly through payments or implicitly through taxes collected, income-based taxes and transfers make disposable income less variable. Because disposable income determines consumption, policies that smooth disposable income also create welfare improving consumption insurance. With data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics we find that annual consumption variation is reduced by almost 20 percent due to explicit and implicit income smoothing. Consumption insurance is as important economically as private health or automobile insurance. Although taxes have become an increasingly important source of consumption insurance, the 2001 income-tax reform legislation should have little effect on implicit consumption insurance.

Have 401(K)S Raised Household Savings? Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Gary V. Engelhart

Center for Policy Research

The most popular tax subsidy to household saving in the United States is the 401(k)-type pension arrangement, which subsidizes saving through income-tax deferral on wages and salary dedicated to retirement saving and through investment accrual at the pre-tax interest rate. Although enabled by legislation in 1978, 401(k) plans effectively were not adopted until the Internal Revenue Service issued clarifying rules in 1981. Since then, they have grown remarkably and become the primary vehicle for retirement saving. In 1996, 33 percent of all private pension assets, 33 percent of all pension plans, and 45 percent of all active pension participants were …

Pre-Retirement Lump-Sum Pension Distributions And Retirement Income Security: Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Gary V. Engelhart

Center for Policy Research

This paper uses data from the 1992 and 1998 Waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to examine the extent of retirement wealth erosion from pre-retirement lump-sum distributions. There is little evidence that spent distributions have resulted in significant pension leakage. If spent distributions had been rolled over into a tax-qualified plan instead, they would have represented in present value between 5 and 11 percent of pension and Social Security wealth for the median household that spent a distribution. However, one-quarter of the households that spent distributions—which is 2.25 percent of all households age 51 to 61—could have increased …

Intergenerational Labor Market And Welfare Consequences Of Poor Health, Thomas J. Kniesner, Anthony T. Losasso

Center for Policy Research

Our research provides new econometric evidence concerning partial economic risk sharing between a frail elderly parent and an adult child. We estimate a jointly determined limited dependent variables system explaining the parent’s entry into a nursing home, the adult child’s visits to the parent, and the adult child’s labor supplied. The time allocation of adult sons is unaffected by a parent’s frail health. Adult daughters who visit a frail elderly parent daily decrease their annual labor supplied by about 1,000 hours annually, largely through labor force non-participation. The implied welfare loss to the daughter from a frail elderly parent in …

Intergenerational Labor Market And Welfare Consequences Of Poor Health, Thomas J. Kniesner, Anthony T. Losasso

Center for Policy Research

Our research provides new econometric evidence concerning partial economic risk sharing between a frail elderly parent and an adult child. We estimate a jointly determined limited dependent variables system explaining the parent’s entry into a nursing home, the adult child’s visits to the parent, and the adult child’s labor supplied. The time allocation of adult sons is unaffected by a parent’s frail health. Adult daughters who visit a frail elderly parent daily decrease their annual labor supplied by about 1,000 hours annually, largely through labor force non-participation. The implied welfare loss to the daughter from a frail elderly parent in …

Unfinished Business: Inadequate Health Coverage For Privately Insured, Seriously Ill Children, Nancy Swigonski, Eleanor D. Kinney, Deborah A. Freund, Thomas J. Kniesner

Center for Policy Research

During the 1980s and 1990s there were great increases of health insurance coverage for poor children through the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and extended Medicaid eligibility. Problems remain for the small number of children with serious medical conditions whose care is a high proportion of total health care expenditures on children. We report on the adequacy of health insurance coverage for a sample of children with serious and rare illnesses treated at the single tertiary care pediatric hospital in Indiana. One-third of privately insured children in our data had inadequate insurance. Compared to families with inadequate health insurance families …

Determinants Of Medical Costs Following A Diagnosis Of Depression, Regina H. Powers, Thomas J. Kniesner, Thomas W. Croghan

Center for Policy Research

Objective: Assess the determinants of medical costs for depressed individuals.

Method: Using medical insurance claims for a population of depressed individuals with employer provided insurance, we estimated multivariate models of the costs for general medical care, exclusive of costs for mental health services, following diagnosis. Explanatory variables included provider choice (psychiatrist or non-physician mental health specialist), treatment choice (medication, psychotherapy, or combination treatment); treatment adequacy as defined by APA guidelines; characteristics of depression symptoms and severity; and other demographic characteristics.

Results: On average, there were increases in the costs for general medical services in the year following diagnosis of a …

The Role Of Microsimulation In Longitudinal Data Analysis, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

The term “microsimulation” has been linked to a range of tools and techniques that are finding growing use in empirical social science applications. This paper considers one such area, namely the potential for microsimulation to serve the needs of the data analyst, in contrast to the more common use of microsimulation by the model user. Furthermore, the focus is on longitudinal rather than cross-sectional data analysis. The paper identifies several types of longitudinal data modeling approaches in which microsimulation is particularly relevant, suggesting algorithms with which to conduct such microsimulations. Microsimulation can be used to extend the range of inferences …

Nominal Loss Aversion, Housing Equity Constraints, And Household Mobility: Evidence From The United States, Gary Engelhardt

Center for Policy Research

This paper exploits the significant recent variation in United States house prices to empirically examine the effect on housing equity constraints and nominal loss aversion on household mobility. The analysis uses unique, detailed data from 1985-1996 on household characteristics, mobility, and wealth from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) matched with house price data from 149 metropolitan areas to estimate semiparametric proportional hazard models of intra- and inter-metropolitan mobility. There are five principal findings: (1) household intra-metropolitan own-to-own mobility responds differently to nominal housing losses than to gains; (2) nominal loss aversion is significantly less pronounced in intra-metropolitan own-to-rent …