Economics Commons^™

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: January 6, 2023, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 0.16% in November 2022. The leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future, has fallen in four of the last six months. Such a decline implies that the Nebraska economy will stagnate during the first half of 2023. Two components of the leading indicator worsened significantly during November. There was an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance, signaling softening in the Nebraska labor market. There was also a drop in manufacturing hours worked during the month. It will be important to monitor whether these two trends continue since a …

Dry Spells And Global Crop Production: A Multi-Stressor And Multi-Timescale Analysis, Uchechukwu Jarrett, Steve Miller, Hamid Mohtadi

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

More frequent and punctuated severe events such as dry spells are among the more salient manifestations of climate change. Because dry spells often co-occur with drought and heat waves, understanding the effects of dry spells and heat waves requires a multi-timescale and multi-stressor perspective. Using a global panel of daily precipitation and temperature from 1979 to 2016, we provide evidence that 4-5 week dry spells that occur during the hottest part of the year depress growth in crop production. The effects of these extreme events are modified by existing drought, aridity, and by heat waves. After accounting for productivity and …

Handwringing Over How To Slice The Pie When Ustr Should Be Focused On Growing It, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) recently released its report on the distributional effects of trade and trade policy on U.S. workers and “underrepresented and underserved communities.” The report catalogs a host of information gathered from a literature review and several roundtables on the adverse effects of U.S. manufacturing imports. But the report’s laser focus on manufacturing imports leaves a huge gap for readers interested in the distributional effects of trade.

Manufacturing imports are an important part of trade, but they aren’t all of trade. Trade is imports and exports, goods and services, inputs and final goods. Trade is manufacturing, …

Recession Emerges As The Most Likely Scenario, Eric Thompson

Business in Nebraska

The United States economy faces the prospect of a second recession as the Federal Reserve Bank continues to raise interest rates to confront inflationary forces. These forces include elevated asset prices and a wage-price spiral. Further interest rate increases are likely given a challenging environment to reduce inflation. Challenges include limited migration and a slow-growing labor force, trade restrictions, regulatory restrictions that limit energy production and raise the minimum wage as well as excessive federal government spending. Federal spending through the CARES Act, Coronavirus Supplemental Appropriations Act, American Rescue Plan, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act continue to fuel excess …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: November 30, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 0.12% in October 2022. The leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future, has fallen in four of the last six months. Such a decline signals a stagnant economy in Nebraska at the beginning of 2023. Four components of the leading indicator worsened during October. There was an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance, signaling some softening of the Nebraska labor market. There was also an increase in the value of the U.S. Dollar in October. A rising dollar creates challenges for Nebraska businesses that compete in international markets. …

How Effective Are The Russian Sanctions?, E. Wesley F. Peterson

Cornhusker Economics

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to extensive economic, financial, trade, and other types of sanctions directed at individual Russians and the Russian economy. The long-term negative effects of the war on the Russian economy may be even more severe and the broader impacts of the conflict mean that it will have serious repercussions for future global economic, political, and diplomatic relations.

“Friendshoring,” Ag Markets, North American Integration Among Issues Examined At Yeutter Institute Symposium, Geitner Simmons

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

A Nov. 2, 2022, symposium sponsored by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Yeutter Institute brought together experts addressing a wide array of trade matters, including global ag market dynamics, North American economic integration and Asia-Pacific economic diplomacy. Among the key questions discussed:

— What complications arise for efforts to shift trade policy toward “friendshoring”?

— How well has North American economic integration fared in the wake of NAFTA and its successor, the USMCA?

— What factors, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are currently affecting agricultural markets and global food insecurity?

— What guideposts can best direct U.S. economic diplomacy …

Innovation In Futures Markets: Event Contracts, Speculation, And Hedging, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

The CME Group has recently launched a new type of contract whose payoffs are based on specific events. These contracts are called event contracts but are also known as prediction contracts or information contracts. They are short-term contracts that expire at the end of each trading day. Traders can take positions in these contracts as they predict whether the price of a given asset will finish the trading day above or below a set value.

Discusses: How are they traded? Main characteristics of event contracts. Event contracts offered by CME group and event examples on October 21, 2022. Why were …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: October 26, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.34% in September 2022, after a small decline in July and August. The leading indicator is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future. A flat value for the indicator over the last three months signals a stagnant economy in Nebraska at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. Three components of the leading indicator improved during September. There was an increase in hours worked in the manufacturing industry. There was also a decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance and respondents to the September Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to …

With No Deterrent Effect, The Wto Dispute Settlement Crisis Leaves Us Exporters Exposed, Especially Us Agriculture, Christine Mcdaniel

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

The absence of a functioning Appellate Body at the World Trade Organization (WTO) leaves the dispute settlement mechanism weakened, and countries may be more likely to pursue their domestic policy goals in ways that restrict trade. Industries with relatively large export exposure like US agriculture will be particularly vulnerable in this new chaotic regime. The deterrent effect is more important than you think An integral part of the world trading system has been the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, which enables the WTO to enforce the rules the Members signed up for. Knowing you could get sued in the WTO for …

On The Market For "Lemons": When Low Quality Does Not Drive High Quality Out Of The Market, Konstantinos Giannakas, Murray E. Fulton

Cornhusker Economics

In a research article published in Nature's Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s4l 599-020-00658-w) we identify the conditions under which the introduction of a low -quality product does not drive its high-quality counterpart out of the market but, instead, ends-up coexisting with it. Using a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers in the context of a market for quality- ( or vertically-) differentiated products supplied by producers differing in their production efficiency, we show that the equilibrium quality configuration in a market depends on both the unobservability of product quality by consumers and the relative costs …

Perceptions Of The Economy And Employment In Nonmetropolitan Nebraska: 2022 Nebraska Rural Poll Results, Rebecca J. Vogt, Heather Akin, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Bradley Lubben, L. J. Mcelravy, Timothy Meyer, Steven A. Schulz, Amanda Tupper

Nebraska Rural Poll

Most rural Nebraskans believe most of the listed economic items will become worse or much worse over the next 12 months when asked in May and June. Almost nine in ten think the following will become worse: inflation, gasoline or diesel fuel prices, grocery prices, and interest rates. In fact, at least four in ten rural Nebraskans believe the following items will become much worse in the next 12 months: gasoline or diesel fuel prices, inflation, grocery prices, and healthcare costs. The two items that had less than one-half believing they would become worse or much worse during the next …

The Storm In World Fertilizer Markets Continues, John C. Beghin

Cornhusker Economics

This article updates the recent article on world fertilizer markets by Beghin and Nogueira (2021), which noted the perfect storm affecting global fertilizer markets through high demand, droughts affecting fertilizer supply, high fossil energy prices, COVID 19-related supply-chain disruptions, and trade policies, all conspiring to elevate fertilizer nominal prices to levels not seen since 2008. In the last 10 months, the Ukraine-Russia war and associated trade sanctions have exacerbated the disruptions in fossil energy, grain, vegetable oil, and fertilizer markets already present in 2021. On the more hopeful side, some United States trade policy developments will help reduce US fertilizer …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 21, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N changed little in August 2022, falling by just 0.01%. The leading indicator is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future. As a result, the flat value for the indicator in August signals that economic growth in Nebraska will be slow at the beginning of 2023. Several components of the leading indicator worsened during August. First, there was a decrease in building permits for single-family homes, likely in response to rising interest rates. Second, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose during August, suggesting some softening of the state’s strong labor market. By contrast, positive business expectations …

Reducing Property Taxes For Agriculture: Diffusion Of Use-Value Assessment Policy Across The United States, John E. Anderson, Seth H. Giertz, Shafiun N. Shimul

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

We analyze the spread across the fifty states of use-value assessment (UVA) programs applied to agricultural and rural land for property tax purposes. Taxing land based on the value associated with its current use in agriculture rather than its full market value can confer substantial tax savings for landowners, affecting land use patterns. Using time-to-event models, we find that the secular trend toward urbanization across all fifty states was a driving force behind the spread of UVA policies. In particular, increasing secular trends in agricultural land values (associated with urbanization) provide a strong motivation for agriculture to pursue UVA, and …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 24, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 0.08% during July 2022. The decrease in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals that economic growth in Nebraska will be slow at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023. The indicator declined for two primary reasons. First, there was an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar in July, creating challenges for agriculture, manufacturers, and other businesses that compete in international markets. Second, there was a decline in airline passenger counts in July, likely in response to large increases in airline ticket prices. …

Can Geopolitics Help Restore Missing Tools To The U.S. Trade Toolbox?, Matthew Schaefer

Yeutter Institute International Trade Policy Review

When U.S. trade negotiators and trade litigators seek to increase market access for U.S. goods and services abroad, they look in their toolbox to see what might be the best tool. The more well-stocked the toolbox, the more possibilities for increasing foreign market access. Today, when U.S. trade negotiators look in their toolbox, they see several traditional tools missing, specifically legally-binding, comprehensive (including tariff-cutting) regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and large package deals within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Their trade litigator colleagues face a similar circumstance of missing traditional tools, specifically the loss of binding two-level dispute …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: August 1, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 0.68% during June 2022. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals that the Nebraska economy will grow slowly through the end of 2022. The indicator improved for two primary reasons. First, there was an increase in manufacturing hours-worked during June. Second, respondents to the June Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment.

What Is The Value Of Ethanol To Nebraska Corn Producers?, Austin Harthoorn

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this thesis, we examine the role of local ethanol plants on net price received by Nebraskan corn growers, with net price comprised of the grain buyer’s bid onsite less the transportation cost incurred through delivery. As each farm operation is uniquely located between different sets of grain buyers, an ethanol plant impacts each grower’s net price to a different degree, depending on location. Exploring this, we use grain bid and transportation cost data based on actual ethanol plants, grain elevators, and sample farm locations in Nebraska, estimating the diversely located corn grower’s net prices received from surrounding grain buyers. …

Markets With Within-Type Adverse Selection, Anh Nguyen, Teck Yong Tan

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

We study bilateral trade with a seller owning multiple units of a good, where each unit is of binary quality. The seller privately knows her “type”—defined by the number of lemons that she owns — and which units in her endowments are the lemons (“withintype adverse selection”). We characterize the set of informationally constrained Pareto optimal allocations and show that every such allocation must involve a trade characterized by a threshold λ^∗, with types having less (more) than λ^∗ units of lemons selling only their lemons (selling their entire endowment). We provide conditions for a …

Comparing The Performance Of Cooperative Plans For Equity Accumulation And Retirement, Jeffrey S. Royer

Cornhusker Economics

Equity allocated to members plays a crucial role in financing agricultural cooperatives. Although retained earnings not allocated to members have become an increasingly importantsource of equity in recent years, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show thatallocated equity still accounted for 55.5 percent of the $47.5 billion in total equity held in U.S.cooperatives in 2020. [1] Allocated member equity differs from unallocated equity fromretained earnings in that it is owned by individual members and there is an expectation thatit will be redeemed in cash when it is eventually replaced by newer allocations. A recent study has examined the comparative performance …

A General Equilibrium Assessment Of Covid-19’S Labor Productivity Impacts On China’S Regional Economies, Xi He, Edward J. Balistreri, Gyu Hyun Kim, Wendong Zhang

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

This study introduces a database for analyzing COVID-19’s impacts on China’s regional economies. This database contains various sectoral and regional economic outcomes at the weekly and monthly level. In the context of a general equilibrium trade model, we first formulate a mathematical representation of the Chinese regional economy and calibrate the model with China’s multi-regional input-output table. We then utilize the monthly provincial and sectoral value-added and national trade series to estimate COVID-19’s province-by-month labor-productivity impacts from February 2020 to September 2020. As a year-on-year comparison, relative to February 2019 levels, we find an average 39.5% decrease in labor productivity …

2022 Nebraska Agricultural Custom Rates With Statewide Survey Summary, Glennis Mcclure

Cornhusker Economics

With rising operational costs for agricultural machine hire and services, rates reported on the 2022 University of Nebraska-Lincoln Custom Rates Survey were mostly higher than rates reported on the 2020 survey, ranging from 6% to nearly 20% greater on some common custom services. For example, state average custom rates for harvesting corn and soybeans per acre increased to $41.63 and $40.18 from $39.34 and $37.29, respectively, two years ago. Planting row crop average rates across Nebraska range from $20.17 per acre (no coulters, without band applicator) to $23.50 per acre for ridge planting with band applicator,up 6% to 8% from …

When Sarah Meets Lawrence: The Effects Of Coeducation On Women's College Major Choices, Avery Calkins, Ariel J. Binder, Dana Shaat, Brenden Timpe

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

We leverage variation in the adoption of coeducation by U.S. women's colleges to study how exposure to a mixed-gender collegiate environment affects women's human capital investments. Our event-study analyses of newly collected historical data find a 3.0-3.5 percentage-point (30-33%) decline in the share of women majoring in STEM. While coeducation caused a large influx of male peers and modest increase in male faculty, we find no evidence that it altered the composition of the female student body or other gender-neutral inputs. Extrapolation of our main estimate suggests that coeducational environments explain 36% of the current gender gap in STEM.

Grocery Store Transitions To Multi-Ownership: Opportunities And Challenges, Marilyn R. Schlake

Cornhusker Economics

Independent grocery stores, stores whose owners operate fewer than four outlets, play a vital role in Nebraska communities. These stores help ensure food access for residents, particularly in rural areas. The recent decline in Nebraska’s total number of rural grocery stores is attributed to the closure of these independent stores, which are often owned by individuals or small groups. Finding qualified, motivated owners to purchase and operate independent grocery stores presents pressing challenges for many rural communities. Despite challenges, research shows that rural Nebraska communities perceive their independent grocery store to be an important community amenity. This suggests rural communities …

Commodity Marketing For High School Students, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

Agricultural commodities play a major role in Nebraska’s economy and are central to the life of many families in the state. Learning the main concepts of commodity marketing becomes essential for young Nebraskans considering careers in the agricultural industry or in farming. Therefore, in the last 10 years, the Department of Agricultural Economics has been expanding its curriculum in commodity marketing and merchandising, as has already been discussed in this space a few years ago (“Commodity Trading Room Comes Online at UNL,” 6/29/2016). Following the same ideas, we are now expanding our efforts to offer a program in commodity marketing …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 25, 2022, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N rose by 1.85% during April 2022. The increase in the leading indicator, which is designed to predict economic activity six months in the future, signals that the Nebraska economy will continue to grow through the 4th quarter of 2022. The indicator improved for three primary reasons. First, there was a sharp increase in airline passenger enplanements in April as that industry continues to recover. Second, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell, signaling a strong Nebraska labor market. Third, respondents to the April Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment. There also was a modest …

Complying With Cecl – Applying The Scale Method To Nebraska Community Banks, Jeffrey Stokes, Jared Stauffer

Cornhusker Economics

Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) is a new expected credit loss accounting standard that was first introduced by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in 2016. This new method is meant to replace the current Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) standard. CECL requires the estimation of expected losses over the life of a loan, while ALLL is based on historic, or incurred, losses. This change largely affects banks, but other financial institutions that hold or trade securities can also be subject to the rule. Although CECL was introduced in 2016, the implementation of the rule has had a …

North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center Helps Producers Manage Risks, Christine Lockert, Bradley D. Lubben, Sheila Aikanathan Johnson

Cornhusker Economics

Farmers and ranchers face many risks and challenges in production agriculture every day. Changing market fundamentals, farm policy reforms, and crop insurance program developments defined the risk environment that led to the authorization of agricultural risk management education as part of the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000. The educational efforts that have followed have been designed to help producers manage the full range of production, marketing, financial, legal, and human risks that are all part of agriculture. In the more than two decades since, the risks facing producers have continued to grow. Producers managed through both the opportunities of …

Making Better Farm Management Decisions, Matthew Stockton

Cornhusker Economics

Traditionally, producer education efforts around farm management are directed at understanding the academic topics of business operations and management including, accounting, law, human resources, marketing, production, risk, finance, etc. The information, techniques and tools taught are often concrete and focus on measurement, analysis, and data. For instance, a traditional grain marketing education program would generally include topics in forward contracts, options, futures, hedge to arrive, basis contracts, storage, and seasonality. While these programs can be quite powerful in developing quantitative skills and knowledge, they neglect a key element needed by all farm managers to make objectively clear decisions. This key …