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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse Jun 2004

Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of predictive power …

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On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu Jun 2004

On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper is concerned with specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (2004, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain the leverage effect …

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From Efficiency-Driven To Innovation-Driven Economic Growth: Perspectives From Singapore, Kim Song Tan, Sock-Yong Phang May 2004

From Efficiency-Driven To Innovation-Driven Economic Growth: Perspectives From Singapore, Kim Song Tan, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Singapore economy is going through a period of major restructuring. Economic stagnation since the 1997 Asia financial crisis (except for a brief recovery in 1999) has called into question the continued relevance of many fundamental policies that had worked well in the past. In 2002, a high-level Economic Review Committee (ERC) was convened by the government to chart new directions for the economy. A common thread that ran through the committee’s various reports was a call to enhance the economy’s innovative capacity, with the aim of making Singapore an innovation hub in the region. The call reflects an increased …

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Indonesian Economic Development: Miracle Or Mirage?, John Malcolm Dowling, Chin Fang Yap May 2004

Indonesian Economic Development: Miracle Or Mirage?, John Malcolm Dowling, Chin Fang Yap

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper focuses on a few major developments that took place during the three decades from the late 1960s to the Asian financial crisis. The study finds, in retrospect, that many of the Indonesian economy's weaknesses--now so glaringly apparent--were there all the time. The paper concludes that the Indonesian banking crisis was primarily domestic in nature, more so than the crises in Korea and Thailand. The extent of the failure was much more widespread and probably resulted from a chain of bank runs and bank closings, reinforced by uncertainty and lack of faith in the government's commitment to the IMF …

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What Has Luck Got To Do With Economic Development? An Interpretation Of Resurgent Asia's Growth Experience, Hing-Man Leung, Swee Liang Tan, Zhenlin Yang Apr 2004

What Has Luck Got To Do With Economic Development? An Interpretation Of Resurgent Asia's Growth Experience, Hing-Man Leung, Swee Liang Tan, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper critically reexamines the belief, currently gathering strength in the literature, that economic development depends on good luck rather than on good policy, and that Prometheus is unchained by chance. While it is impossible to disprove the role of luck in growth, we argue that luck is endogenous, and good luck is a function of good policy. Luck favours those who strive. Again contrary to common belief, we show that resurgent Asian economies have endured more, not less, than their fair share of economic volatility. They learned their lessons by success and failures, and luck is endogenous through learning-by-investing.

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Social Trust And Economic Governance, Fali Huang Apr 2004

Social Trust And Economic Governance, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper investigates the dynamic relationship between social trust and economic governance using a principal-agent model with stochastic returns. To mitigate the inherent moral hazard problem both intrinsic and extrinsic incentives are useful. The cooperative tendency of an agent measures his intrinsic discipline against shirking, the distribution of which characterizes social trust in society. The economic governance methods include direct monitoring and efficiency wage. The main results are the following. An agent with a higher cooperative tendency needs less monitoring and a lower wage to make effort, which brings higher profit for the principal. But competition among principals for more …

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On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu Apr 2004

On Leverage In A Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper is concerned with specification for modelling financial leverage effect in the context of stochastic volatility (SV) models. Two alternative specifications co-exist in the literature. One is the Euler approximation to the well known continuous time SV model with leverage effect and the other is the discrete time SV model of Jacquier, Polson and Rossi (2004, Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming). Using a Gaussian nonlinear state space form with uncorrelated measurement and transition errors, I show that it is easy to interpret the leverage effect in the conventional model whereas it is not clear how to obtain the leverage effect …

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A Semi-Parametric Two-Component Compound Mixture Model And Its Application To Estimating Malaria Attributable Fractions, Jing Qin, Denis H. Y. Leung Apr 2004

A Semi-Parametric Two-Component Compound Mixture Model And Its Application To Estimating Malaria Attributable Fractions, Jing Qin, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Malaria remains a major epidemiologic problem in many developing countries. Malaria is defined as the presence of parasites and symptoms (usually fever) due to the parasites. In endemic areas, an individual may have symptoms attributable either to malaria or to other causes. From a clinical viewpoint, it is important to correctly diagnose an individual who has developed symptoms so that the appropriate treatments can be given. From an epidemiologic and economic viewpoint, it is important to determine the proportion of malaria-affected cases in individuals who have symptoms so that policies on intervention program can be developed. Once symptoms have developed …

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Road Congestion Pricing In Singapore: 1975-2003, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh Mar 2004

Road Congestion Pricing In Singapore: 1975-2003, Sock-Yong Phang, Rex S. Toh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Facing traffic congestion in the Central Business District and enormous demands on scarce land resources by the growing number of motor vehicles, Singapore, a small island city-state the size of Seattle, embarked on a bold decision to reduce road congestion by implementing the famous Area Licensing Scheme in 1975. This was a manual system of tolls for multiple entries into the Restricted Zone. While achieving the intended effect of cutting down on the volume of vehicular traffic in the Restricted Zone, the authors (and others) found that the problem of congestion had merely shifted in time and place. Many changes …

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Trade, Capital Accumulation And Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study Of The Singapore Economy, Hiau Looi Kee, Hian Teck Hoon Mar 2004

Trade, Capital Accumulation And Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study Of The Singapore Economy, Hiau Looi Kee, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the factors responsible for the secular decline of Singapore’s unemployment rate over the period 1966-2000 in an environment of low and stable inflation rates. We introduce wage bargaining and unions into a specific-factors, two-sector economy with an export sector and a non-tradable sector to obtain an endogenous natural unemployment rate. Increases in the relative export price and capital stock in the export sector are predicted to reduce structural unemployment. These hypotheses could not be rejected based on structural estimations and co-integration regressions. Empirically, capital accumulation in the export sector explains most of the decline in Singapore’s unemployment …

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Why Is China So Competitive? Measuring And Explaining China's Competitiveness, F. Gerard Adams, Byron Gangnes, Yochanan Shachmurove Mar 2004

Why Is China So Competitive? Measuring And Explaining China's Competitiveness, F. Gerard Adams, Byron Gangnes, Yochanan Shachmurove

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of China in the world economy and relative to its East Asian rivals. China has been highly successful in capturing world export markets. Chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange and extremely low labor costs. It reflects primarily the coincidence of favorable cost conditions with improvements in China’s ability to produce products that meet world market specifications. These improvements are closely related to foreign participation in China’s economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises.

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Modeling The Firm-Size Distribution Using Box-Cox Heteroscedastic Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse Mar 2004

Modeling The Firm-Size Distribution Using Box-Cox Heteroscedastic Regression, Zhenlin Yang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using the Box-Cox regression model with heteroscedasticity (BCHR), we re‐examine the size distribution of the Portuguese manufacturing firms studied by Machado and Mata (2000) using the Box-Cox quantile regression (BCQR) method. We show that the BCHR model compares favourably against the BCQR method. In particular, the BCHR model can answer the key questions addressed by the BCQR method, with the advantage that the estimated quantile functions are monotonic. Furthermore, confidence intervals of the regression quantiles are easy to compute, and the estimation of the Box-Cox heteroscedastic regression is straight forward.

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The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Interest Rates In Post-Crisis Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim Mar 2004

The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Interest Rates In Post-Crisis Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

In post-crisis Asia, all crisis-hit countries (except Malaysia) announced a shift from exchange rate based monetary policy framework to the explicit adoption of inflation targeting that uses interest rates as the key monetary policy operating instrument. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, and investigate how the dynamics between them have changed following the crisis. This is carried out by constructing a bivariate VAR-GARCH model for each of the four Asian crisis countries, namely Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand. The findings suggest these countries do not use interest rate policy more actively to …

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Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka Mar 2004

Transaction-Data Analysis Of Marked Durations And Their Implications For Market Microstructure, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We propose an Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model for the analysis of irregularly spaced transaction data. Based on the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, the ACMD model assigns marks to characterize events such as tick movements and trade directions (buy/sell). Applying the ACMD model to tick movements, we study the influence of trade frequency, direction and size on price dynamics, volatility and the permanent and transitory price impacts of trade. We also apply the ACMD model to analyze trade-direction data and estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN). We find that trade frequency has a critical role in price …

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Bargaining And Competition Revisited, Takashi Kunimoto, Roberto Serrano Mar 2004

Bargaining And Competition Revisited, Takashi Kunimoto, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show the robustness of the Walrasian result obtained in models of bargaining in pairwise meetings. Restricting trade to take place only in pairs, most of the assumptions made in the literature are dispensed with. These include assumptions on preferences (differentiability, monotonicity, strict concavity, bounded curvature), on the set of agents (dispersed characteristics) or on the consumption set (allowing only divisible goods).

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Have U.S. - Japan Trade Agreements Made A Difference?, Byron Gangnes, Craig Parsons Mar 2004

Have U.S. - Japan Trade Agreements Made A Difference?, Byron Gangnes, Craig Parsons

Research Collection School Of Economics

International trade is governed by a complicated patchwork of international treaties, bilateral agreements, and unilateral actions, often directed at trade in very specific commodities. A determination of the impact of trade measures begins with an assessment of their direct effect on trade volumes and prices in targeted sectors. While in some cases—such as the recent U.S. anti-dumping duties on steel—the measures have readily identifiable impacts, in others cases the effects are more difficult to determine.

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From Efficiency-Driven To Innovation-Driven Growth: Perspectives From Singapore, Kim Song Tan Feb 2004

From Efficiency-Driven To Innovation-Driven Growth: Perspectives From Singapore, Kim Song Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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Local Coordination And Market Equilibria, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal Feb 2004

Local Coordination And Market Equilibria, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal

Research Collection School Of Economics

We reformulate the local stability analysis of market equilibria in a competitive market as a local coordination problem in a market game, where the map associating market prices to best-responses of all traders is common knowledge and well-defined both in and out of equilibrium. Initial expectations over market variables differ from their equilibrium values and are not common knowledge. This results in a coordination problem as traders use the structure of the market game to converge back to equilibrium. We analyse a simultaneous move and a sequential move version of the market game and explore the link with local rationalizability.

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A Small-Sample Overlapping Variance-Ratio Test, Yiu Kuen Tse, K. W. Ng, Xibin Zhang Jan 2004

A Small-Sample Overlapping Variance-Ratio Test, Yiu Kuen Tse, K. W. Ng, Xibin Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The null distribution of the overlapping variance-ratio (OVR) test of the random-walk hypothesis is known to be downward biased and skewed to the right in small samples. As shown by , the test under-rejects the null on the left tail seriously when the sample size is small. This property adversely affects the applicability of the OVR test to macroeconomic time series, which usually have rather small samples. In this paper, we propose a modified overlapping variance-ratio statistic and derive its exact mean under the normality assumption. We propose to approximate the small-sample distribution of the modified statistic using a beta …

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Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models, Andreas Berg, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu Jan 2004

Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models, Andreas Berg, Renate Meyer, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Bayesian methods have been efficient in estimating parameters of stochastic volatility models for analyzing financial time series. Recent advances made it possible to fit stochastic volatility models of increasing complexity, including covariates, leverage effects, jump components, and heavy-tailed distributions. However, a formal model comparison via Bayes factors remains difficult. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate that model selection is more easily performed using the deviance information criterion (DIC). It combines a Bayesian measure of fit with a measure of model complexity. We illustrate the performance of DIC in discriminating between various different stochastic volatility models using simulated …

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Empirical Characteristic Function Estimation And Its Applications, Jun Yu Jan 2004

Empirical Characteristic Function Estimation And Its Applications, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper reviews the method of model-fitting via the empirical characteristic function. The advantage of using this procedure is that one can avoid difficulties inherent in calculating or maximizing the likelihood function. Thus it is a desirable estimation method when the maximum likelihood approach encounters difficulties but the characteristic function has a tractable expression. The basic idea of the empirical characteristic function method is to match the characteristic function derived from the model and the empirical characteristic function obtained from data. Ideas are illustrated by using the methodology to estimate a diffusion model that includes a self-exciting jump component. A …

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Selection Correction And Sensitivity Analysis For Ordered Treatment Effect On Count Response, Myoung-Jae Lee Jan 2004

Selection Correction And Sensitivity Analysis For Ordered Treatment Effect On Count Response, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

In estimating the effect of an ordered treatment [tau] on a count response y with an observational data where [tau] is self-selected (not randomized), observed variables x and unobserved variables [epsilon] can be unbalanced across the control group ([tau] = 0) and the treatment groups ([tau] = 1, . . . , J). While the imbalance in x causes 'overt bias' which can be removed by controlling for x, the imbalance in [epsilon] causes 'covert (hidden or selection) bias' which cannot be easily removed. This paper makes three contributions. First, a proper counter-factual causal framework for ordered treatment effect on …

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Market Segmentation And Information Values Of Earnings Announcements: Some Empirical Evidence From An Event Study On The Chinese Stock Market, Y. Gao, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 2004

Market Segmentation And Information Values Of Earnings Announcements: Some Empirical Evidence From An Event Study On The Chinese Stock Market, Y. Gao, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the trading activities of two distinct classes of shareholders, namely, the Chinese domestic investors and the foreign investors in the segmented Chinese A- and B-share markets, respectively. We conduct an event study on the annual earnings announcements based on two different accounting standards: International accounting standards (IAS) and PRC generally accepted accounting principles (PRC GAAP). The earnings announcements based on IAS and PRC GAAP are value relevant. The investors in the B-share market react to both the IAS and PRC GAAP earnings announcements, while the investors in the A-share market pay more attention to the PRC GAAP …

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Social Trust, Cooperation, And Human Capital, Fali Huang Jan 2004

Social Trust, Cooperation, And Human Capital, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The importance of social trust on economic growth has been suggested by many empirical works. This paper formalizes the concept of social trust and studies its formation process in a game theoretic setting. It provides plausible explanations for a wide range of empirical and experimental findings. The main results of the paper are as follows. For utility-maximizing players, cooperation arises in one-period prisoner’s dilemmas if and only if there is social trust. The amount of social trust in a given game is determined by the distribution of players’ cooperative tendency. Cooperative tendency is in essence a component of human capital …

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Congestion Control And Vehicle Ownership Restriction: The Choice Of An Optimal Quota Policy, Winston T. H. Koh Jan 2004

Congestion Control And Vehicle Ownership Restriction: The Choice Of An Optimal Quota Policy, Winston T. H. Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore introduced a vehicle quota system (VQS) in 1990 as part of its overall policy to control urban congestion. While the VQS has reduced the annual growth rate of the vehicle population to about 3 per cent, it has created uncertainty in the cost of vehicle ownership due to the fluctuations in licence prices. This paper discusses three issues relating to the optimal design of a VQS: licence transferability, sub-categorisation, and the choice of an auction format. The analysis shows that licence transferability is not unambiguously desirable, sub-categorisation is highly regressive, and an open auction format results in less aggressive …

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Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy Jan 2004

Forecasting The Global Electronics Cycle With Leading Indicators: A Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering attempts at prediction. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for forecasting the global electronics cycle by constructing a VAR model that captures the economic interactions between putative leading indicators representing expectations, orders, inventories and prices. The ability of the indicators to presage world semiconductor sales is first examined by Granger causality tests. Subsequently, an impulse response analysis confirms the leading qualities of …

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The Politics Of Wto Enforcement Mechanism, Pao-Li Chang Jan 2004

The Politics Of Wto Enforcement Mechanism, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper attempts to develop a formal economic framework to analyze the influences of domestic political considerations by democratic governments in shaping the WTO enforcement outcomes in the wake of a violation ruling against the defendant. Since a different mix of import and export sectors in the defendant and complainant country will benefit from the various potential enforcement outcomes, they become competing forces which steer the strategic interactions between the disputing governments. The results of the paper illustrate the complainant’s strategy in selecting the retaliation list, and the likelihood of the defendant’s compliance or compensation in response to the proposed …

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The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega Jan 2004

The Structuralist Perspective On Real Exchange Rate, Share Price Level And Employment Path: What Room Is Left For Money?, Edmund S. Phelps, Hian Teck Hoon, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

The current sluggish performance of the US economy follows one of the more remarkable booms in modern history. The late 1990s was a period of simultaneous output and productivity growth,1 low unemployment and stable inflation, culminating in an unemployment rate of only 3.9% in the fourth quarter of the year 2000. The absence of rising inflation during this period came as a surprise to many since the level of the natural rate of unemployment was commonly estimated to be in the range of 5-6% by the mid 1990s. The non-inflationary boom, however, reminds one of another episode where non-monetary forces …

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Information Recovery In A Study With Surrogate Endpoints, Song Xi Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin Dec 2003

Information Recovery In A Study With Surrogate Endpoints, Song Xi Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recently, there has been a lot of interest in statistical methods for analyzing data with surrogate endpoints. In this article, we consider parameter estimation from a model that relates a variable Y to a set of covariates, X, in the presence of a surrogate, S. We assume that the data are made up of two random samples from the population, a validation set where (Y, X, S) are observed on every subject and a nonvalidation set where only (X, S) are measured. We show how information from the nonvalidation set can be incorporated to improve upon estimation of a parameter …

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Optimum Currency Area In Europe: An Alternative Evaluation, Yoonbai Kim, Hwee Kwan Chow Dec 2003

Optimum Currency Area In Europe: An Alternative Evaluation, Yoonbai Kim, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we explore an alternative scheme to assess the suitability of adopting a common currency by Western European countries. It is based on the role of common regional shocks in the determination of output. The results show that the OCA theory well explains and predicts participation decisions in EMU. We also find that our OCA index is highly consistent with two popular schemes that have been introduced by Bayoumi and Eichengreen.

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