Economics Commons^™

Why It's Vital To Keep Manufacturing Alive, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Augustine Tan responds to Singapore Democratic Party candidate Tan Jee Say's online article.

Warning Signs Of Future Asset Bubbles, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Values Survey, we find that individuals with higher levels of schooling, but whose income

Asymptotic Theory For Zero Energy Functionals With Nonparametric Regression Applications, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

A local limit theorem is given for the sample mean of a zero energy function of a nonstationary time series involving twin numerical sequences that pass to infinity. The result is applicable in certain nonparametric kernel density estimation and regression problems where the relevant quantities are functions of both sample size and bandwidth. An interesting outcome of the theory in nonparametric regression is that the linear term is eliminated from the asymptotic bias. In consequence and in contrast to the stationary case, the Nadaraya-Watson estimator has the same limit distribution (to the second order including bias) as the local linear …

Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and …

Infinite Density At The Median And The Typical Shape Of Stock Return Distributions, Chirok Han, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Statistics are developed to test for the presence of an asymptotic discontinuity (or infinite density or peakedness) in a probability density at the median. The approach makes use of work by Knight (1998) on L(1) estimation asymptotics in conjunction with nonparametric kernel density estimation methods. The size and power of the tests are assessed, and conditions under which the tests have good performance are explored in simulations. The new methods are applied to stock returns of leading companies across major U.S. industry groups. The results confirm the presence of infinite density at the median as a new significant empirical evidence …

The Unintended Effects Of The Sarbanes-Oxley Act, Vidhi Chhaochharia, Clemens A. Otto, Vikrant Vig

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) was passed in the wake of several scandals that rocked corporate America in 2001 and 2002. The objective behind SOX was to improve corporate governance by improving accounting disclosures. Compliance with Section 404 is considered by many to be the most costly requirement of SOX and has been argued to be a disproportionate burden for small firms. Consequently, firms with a public float below $75 million were granted several exemptions from compliance. We document an unintended effect of these exemptions: a weakening of corporate governance through a weakening of the market for corporate control.

The People Want The Fall Of The Regime: Schooling, Political Protest, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide evidence that economic circumstances are a key intermediating variable for understanding the relationship between schooling and political protest. Using the World Values Survey, we find that individuals with higher levels of schooling, but whose income outcomes fall short of that predicted by their biographical characteristics, in turn display a greater propensity to engage in protest activities. We discuss a number of interpretations that are consistent with this finding, including the idea that economic conditions can affect how individuals trade off the use of their human capital between production and political activities. Our results could also reflect a link …

Decomposing The Changes Of The Divisia Price Index: Application To Inflation In The Philippines, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a method to decompose the logarithmic change of the Divisia price index into the pure price effect, the preference effect and the substitution effect. Our empirical results in the Philippines shows the effects of preference change on the Divisia price index are heterogeneous but positive across all regions and income deciles. However, they are dominated by the pure price effect.

Corrigendum To "A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate", Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An error is corrected in Yu and Phillips (2001) (Econometrics Journal, 4, 210-224) where a time transformation was used to induce Gaussian disturbances in the discrete time equivalent model. It is shown that the error process in this model is not a martingale and the Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz (DDS) theorem is not directly applicable. However, a detrended error process is a martingale, the DDS theorem is applicable, and the corresponding stopping time correctly induces Gaussianity. We show that the two stopping time sequences differ by O(a2), where a is the pre-specified normalized timing constant.

Wage Subsidies In A Program For Economic Inclusion And Growth, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper is in three parts. The first part discusses the workings of a wage subsidy scheme in boosting employment and earnings of workers. The second part reviews the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of wage subsidy schemes in countries that have implemented them both as countercyclical policies as well as structural programs to boost long-term earnings and employment of low wage workers. The third part looks at Singapore as a case study of how wage subsidies have been used in a program for generating economic inclusion both in the context of growth as well as in the context of …

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the …

Tops-Only Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider the standard voting model with a finite set of alternativesA and n voters and address the following question: what are the characteristics ofdomains D that induce the property that every strategy-proof social choice functionf : Dn → A satisfying unanimity, has the tops-only property? We first impose aminimal richness condition which ensures that for every alternative a, there exists anadmissible ordering where a is maximal. We identify conditions on D that are sufficientfor strategy-proofness and unanimity to imply tops onlyness in the general case of nvoters and in the special case, n = 2. We …

Tops-Only Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider the standard voting model with a finite set of alternatives A and n voters and address the following question: what are the characteristics of domains D" role="presentation">D that induce the property that every strategy-proof social choice function f:Dn→A" role="presentation">f:Dn→A satisfying unanimity, has the tops-only property? We first impose a minimal richness condition which ensures that for every alternative a, there exists an admissible ordering where a is maximal. We identify conditions on D" role="presentation">D that are sufficient for strategy-proofness and unanimity to imply tops onlyness in the general case of n …

Teaching Rebels, Filip Campante, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

A Sufficient Condition For The Tops-Only Property Of Strategy-Proof Social Choice Functions In The Case Of Two Voters, Huaxia Zeng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In this thesis, we consider the standard voting model with a finite set of alternatives A and 2 voters, and address the following question: besides Domains D satisfying the

Property T (Chatterji & Sen (2011) ), what are other characteristics of domains that induce every strategy-proof and unanimous social choice function f : Dn → A to satisfy the tops-only property? We impose a minimal richness condition which ensures that for every alternative a ∈ A, there exists a preference ordering where a is maximal. We identify a more general condition on domains that is sufficient for strategy-proofness …

Effects Of Free Trade Areas In Trade Promotion: Gravity Model Approach, Mona Jit Mui Lim

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Since the early 1990s, the world has seen a proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). One of the key objectives of FTAs is to expand trade between or amongst its signatories. This study explores the intra-FTA and extra-FTA trade expansion capability of 3 types of FTA: North-North FTA (European Union (EU)-15 as a representative), North-South FTA (North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as a representative) and South-South FTA (Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN ) Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) as a representative). The study made an attempt to address the spread of such FTA-led trade expansion amongst the members and …

Testing Heterogeneity In Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Qihui Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper proposes a test for the slope homogeneity in large dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on a measure of goodness-of-fit (R²). We first obtain, for each cross-sectional unit, the R² from the time series regression of residuals on the constant and observable regressors and then construct the test statistic R² as an equally weighted average of the cross-sectional R²'s. R̄² is close to 0 under the null hypothesis of homogenous slopes and deviates away from 0 otherwise. We show that after being appropriately centered and scaled, R^{2 …}

Analysis Of Singapore's Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure, Chee Wai Wan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper analyses the Singapore foreign exchange market from a microstructure approach. Specifically, by applying and modifying the empirical methodology designed by Bollerslev and Melvin (1994), we examine the relationship between bid-ask spreads and the underlying volatility of the USD/SGD. Our data set comprises high-frequency USD/SGD tick data of three separate years (April-June 1989, April-May 2006, April-May 2009). We found that for the USD/SGD: i) the size of bid-ask spreads are positively related to the underlying exchange rate volatility; ii) the magnitude of the dependence on underlying volatility increases as tick volume increases; and iii) the size of the bid-ask …

Double-Edged Transparency In Teams, Parimal Bag, Nona Pepito

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a team project with significant complementarities between various players' individual tasks, news of early success by some encourages others to push ahead with their own tasks while lack of success has the opposite effect. This ex-post disparity in incentives created gives rise to two differing implications, ex ante, for an ideal team transparency. Sometimes it is better to commit to complete secrecy within the team of the various participants' interim progress as it mitigates the negative effect of failures. In some other situations, commitment to full disclosure is better as players are then encouraged to be proactive by exerting …

Payroll Taxes, Wealth And Employment In Neoclassical Theory: Neutrality Or Nonneutrality?, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The theoretical proposition that temporarily below-normal tax rates on labor this year, when merged with the prospect of reversion to normal rates next year, will encourage households to squeeze more work into this year and to work less in future years is well-founded. This proposition was recently tested anew on Icelandic data and performed well empirically (Bianchi, Gudmundsson, and Zoega 2001). But would a permanent cut in tax rates on labor encourage more work permanently—with no diminution of effectiveness? Conversely, does a permanent increase in tax rates on labor cause a permanent decline in hours worked?

Model Selection In Validation Sampling Data: An Asymptotic Likelihood-Based Lasso Approach, Chenlei Leng, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an asymptotic likelihood-based LASSO approach for model selection in regression analysis when data are subject to validation sampling. The method makes use of an initial estimator of the regression coefficients and their asymptotic covariance matrix to form an asymptotic likelihood. This ``working'' objective function facilitates the formulation of the LASSO and the implementation of a fast algorithm. Our method circumvents the need to use a likelihood set-up that requires full distributional assumptions about the data. We show that the resulting estimator is consistent in model selection and that the method has lower prediction errors than a model that …

Monetary Policy In Singapore And The Global Financial Crisis, Hwee Kwan Chow, Peter Wilson

Research Collection School Of Economics

Prior to the crisis the consensus amongst central bankers in advanced economies was that price stability, in the form of low and stable price inflation, was a top priority for monetary policy and could best be achieved by targeting interest rates (usually overnight) or monetary aggregates, such as Narrow Money (M1) and Broad Money (M2). Liquidity in the banking system could be flexibly adjusted on a daily basis through open market operations to increase or decrease the monetary base which would be transmitted to the rest of the economy through financial intermediation. Financial markets would then adjust longer-term interest rates …

The Impact Of Transaction Duration, Volume And Direction On Price Dynamics And Volatility, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitchell Warachka

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore the role of trade volume, trade direction, and the duration between trades in explaining price dynamics and volatility using an Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration model applied to intraday transactions data. Our results suggest that volume, direction and duration are important determinants of price dynamics, while duration is also an important determinant of volatility. However, the impact of volume and direction on volatility is marginal after controlling for duration, and the impact of volume on volatility appears to be confined to periods of infrequent trading.

Economic Transition, Higher Education And Worker Productivity In China, Belton Fleisher, Yifan Yu, Haizheng Li, Seonghoon Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the role of education on worker productivity and firms' total factor productivity using a panel of firm-level data from China. We estimate the returns to education by calculating the marginal productivity of workers of different education levels based on estimates of the firm-level production function. We also estimate how the education level of workers and CEO contributes to firms' total factor productivity. Estimated marginal products are much higher than wages, and the gap is larger for highly educated workers. Our estimate shows that an additional year of schooling raises marginal product by 30.1%, and that CEO's education increases …

How Predictable Is The Chinese Stock Market?, Fuwei Jiang, Jun Tu, David Rapach, Jack K. Strauss, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We analyze return predictability for the Chinese stock market index and its components sorted on industry, size, book-to-market and ownership concentration, with both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. We find significant predictability. Among industry portfolios, Finance and insurance, Real estate, and Manufacturing exhibit the most predictability, while small-cap, low book-to-market ratio and low ownership concentration firms also display considerable predictability. The conditional CAPM model largely accounts for component predictability, and industry concentration significantly explain differences in return predictability across industries, consistent with the information-flow frictions emphasized by Hong, Torous, and Valkanov (2007).

Quasi-Option Value Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a simple two-period model of irreversible investment under strategic interactions between two players. In this setup, we show that the quasi-option value may cause some conceptual difficulties. In case of asymmetric information, decentralized investment decisions fail to induce first-best allocations. Therefore a regulator may not be able to exercise the option to delay the decision to develop. We also show that information-induced inefficiency may arise in a game situation and that under certain assumptions inefficiency can be eliminated by sending asymmetric information to the players, even when the regulator faces informational constraints. Our model is potentially applicable to …

Nonparametric And Semiparametric Panel Econometric Models: Estimation And Testing, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper gives a selective review on the recent developments of nonparametric and semiparametric panel data models. We focus on the conventional panel data models with one-way error component structure, partially linear panel data models, varying coefficient panel data models, nonparametric panel data models with multi-factor error structure, and nonseparable nonparametric panel data models. For each area, we discuss the basic models and ideas of estimation, and comment on the asymptotic properties of different estimators and specification tests. Much theoretical and empirical research is needed in this emerging area

Impact Of Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

The remittance have emerged as one of the most important sources of international flows. In the Philippines, the amount of remittance receipts has more than doubled over a decade since early 1990s. As a result, the way remittances are used has become extremely important for economic development. Unlike the previous studies, we allow for the potential heterogeneity in the impact of remittances across various relationships to the head of household and take into account the potential negative effects of being guarded by someone other than the parents. We find that the impact of remittances on schooling is generally positive and …

Estimation And Forecasting Of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model, Xiangdong Long, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a semiparametric conditional covariance (SCC) estimator that combines the first-stage parametric conditional covariance (PCC) estimator with the second-stage nonparametric correction estimator in a multiplicative way. We prove the asymptotic normality of our SCC estimator, propose a nonparametric test for the correct specification of PCC models, and study its asymptotic properties. We evaluate the finite sample performance of our test and SCC estimator and compare the latter with that of PCC estimator, purely nonparametric estimator, and Hafner, Dijk, and Franses’s (2006) estimator in terms of mean squared error and Value-at-Risk losses via simulations and real data analyses.

Money And Its Effects On Life, Behaviour And Happiness, Knowledge@Smu

Knowledge@SMU

Happiness cannot be bought, some people might argue. Yet, money certainly allows people to buy things and experiences that can ultimately bring joy and happiness. Results from this year's Gallup World Poll, for instance, ranked Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands – all wealthy countries – as the top five for happiest inhabitants. A recent SMU Social Sciences Capstone Seminar also pointed out that wealthier countries have cleaner water, better infrastructure, fewer diseases, and higher IQs. Could the old adage, that money is the root of all evil, be out of touch with the realities of our capitalist, consumerist …