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Articles 1441 - 1470 of 2456

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Sequential Investment, Hold-Up, And Ownership Structure, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang Jul 2014

Sequential Investment, Hold-Up, And Ownership Structure, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct a sequential investment model to investigate individual firms’ strategic choices of organizational forms when outsourcing their intermediate products. Our results indicate that as a result of the encouragement effect of sequential complementary investments, sequential investment alleviates the underinvestment caused by the hold-up problem. Thereafter, we analyze the impact of sequential investment on the choice of ownership structure. We show that contrary to the result of the standard property rights theory, strictly complementary assets could be owned separately.

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Singapore’S Competitiveness At Risk, Augustine H. H. Tan Jul 2014

Singapore’S Competitiveness At Risk, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Singapore’s disappointing second-quarter growth of 2.1 per cent compared with the same period last year has raised concerns about the impact of economic restructuring. When compared with the last quarter, growth even dipped 0.8 per cent. At the same time, productivity performance has been dismal. After rising by 2.2 per cent in 2011, productivity dropped by 1.4 per cent in 2012 and another 0.2 per cent last year.

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Three Essays On Nonstationary Time Series Analysis, Ye Chen Jun 2014

Three Essays On Nonstationary Time Series Analysis, Ye Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Financial and macroeconomic time series data are often nonstationary. My dissertation consists of three essays concerning time series models with nonstationarity. Chapter 1 develops a new jackknife estimator for nonstationary autoregressive model. The remaining two chapters explore the restricted maximum likelihood (REML hereafter) estimation and the restricted maximum likelihood based likelihood ratio test (RLRT hereafter) in predictive regression. Chapter 1 proposes an improved jackknife estimator of the persistence parameter that works for both the discrete time unit root model and the continuous time unit root model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the persistence parameter in the discrete time unit root model …

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Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao Jun 2014

Adaptive Nonparametric Regression With Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Zhijie Xiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vector Autoregression (VAR) has been a standard empirical tool used in macroeconomics and finance. In this paper we discuss how to compare alternative VAR models after they are estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. In particular we apply a robust version of deviance information criterion (RDIC) recently developed in Li et al. (2014b) to determine the best candidate model. RDIC is a better information criterion than the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC) when latent variables are involved in candidate models. Empirical analysis using US data shows that the optimal model selected by RDIC can be different from that by DIC.

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Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Var Models, Tao Zeng, Yong Li, Jun Yu Jun 2014

Deviance Information Criterion For Comparing Var Models, Tao Zeng, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vector Autoregression (VAR) has been a standard empirical tool used in macroeconomics and finance. In this paper we discuss how to compare alternative VAR models after they are estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. In particular we apply a robust version of deviance information criterion (RDIC) recently developed in Li et al. (2014b) to determine the best candidate model. RDIC is a better information criterion than the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC) when latent variables are involved in candidate models. Empirical analysis using US data shows that the optimal model selected by RDIC can be different from that by DIC.

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Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, And Asset Pricing Implications, Andras Fulop, Junye Li, Jun Yu Jun 2014

Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, And Asset Pricing Implications, Andras Fulop, Junye Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account cojumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a dence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance Bayesian learning approach to implement real time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance becomes more obvious at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. It is found that learning affects the tail behaviors of the return distributions and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting and option pricing.

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Managing Private Vehicles In Asian Cities, Sock-Yong Phang Jun 2014

Managing Private Vehicles In Asian Cities, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Asia's rapid urbanization and growing incomes have resulted in a corresponding booming market in motor vehicle sales. In 2013, an estimated 18 million new passenger cars were sold in China. Motor vehicle users generate congestion, pollution, accidents, noise and road damage. Yet, in most cities motor vehicle users often do not pay the full social costs and are therefore implicitly subsidized by non-users. According to the Tom Tom Traffic Index, which is based on GPS data, motorists in the worst congested cities in developed countries spend up to 40% more time for peak hour commutes. This level of delay is …

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Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow Jun 2014

Is The Renminbi East Asia’S Dominant Reference Currency? A Reconsideration, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent empirical studies show that the Chinese currency renminbi is either becoming or has become a dominant reference currency in Asia. However, the high correlation between the US dollar and renminbi movements hampers the identification of their individual effects on the Asian currencies. In particular, the application of Frankel-Wei regressions to determine the weights of the US dollar and the (unorthogonalized) renminbi in the implicit currency baskets could suffer from endogeneity problems that produce an upward bias in renminbi’s estimated weight. This paper reviews the evidence by applying country-specific VAR models to daily exchange rate data from nine Asian economies …

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Specification Sensitivity In Right‐Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behaviour, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu Jun 2014

Specification Sensitivity In Right‐Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behaviour, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the recursive right-tailed ADF test of Phillips et al. (2011b). We analyze and compare the limit theory of the recursive test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The size and power properties of the test under various scenarios are examined and some recommendations for empirical practice are given. Some new results on the consistent estimation of localizing drift exponents are obtained, which are useful in assessing model specification. Empirical applications to stock markets illustrate these specification issues and reveal their practical …

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“Monetary And Currency Policy Management In Asia” By M. Kawai, P.J. Morgan And S. Takaji [Book Review], Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan Jun 2014

“Monetary And Currency Policy Management In Asia” By M. Kawai, P.J. Morgan And S. Takaji [Book Review], Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

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A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiao-Bin Liu, Jun Yu Jun 2014

A Bayesian Chi-Squared Test For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiao-Bin Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Bayesian test statistic is proposed to test a point null hypothesis based on of regular conditions and follows a chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is correct. The new statistic has several important advantages that make it appeal in practical applications. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffrey-Lindley’s paradox. Third, it is relatively easy to compute, even for models with latent variables. Finally, it is pivotal and its threshold value can be easily obtained from the asymptotic chi-squared distribution. The method is illustrated using some real examples in economics and finance.

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Extremal Quantile Regressions For Selection Models And The Black White Wage Gap, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Yichong Zhang Jun 2014

Extremal Quantile Regressions For Selection Models And The Black White Wage Gap, Xavier D'Haultfoeuille, Arnaud Maurel, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation of a semiparametric location-scale model subject to endogenous selection, in the absence of an instrument or a large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. In this context, we propose a simple estimator, which combines extremal quantile regressions with minimum distance. We establish the asymptotic normality of this estimator by extending previous results on extremal quantile regressions to allow for selection. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the black-white wage gap among males from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. We find that premarket factors …

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The World Economy In 2014, Singapore Management University May 2014

The World Economy In 2014, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The U.S., European Union, and China have their own battles to fight

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Commodity Super Cycles: A Reality Check, Maureen Derooij May 2014

Commodity Super Cycles: A Reality Check, Maureen Derooij

Asian Management Insights

Do commodity super cycles exist, or are we simply seeing patterns in randomness? More importantly, are we in the middle of one that is showing signs of going bust?

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The Fundamental Law Of Highway Congestion Revisited: Evidence From National Expressways In Japan, Wen-Tai Hsu, Hongliang Zhang May 2014

The Fundamental Law Of Highway Congestion Revisited: Evidence From National Expressways In Japan, Wen-Tai Hsu, Hongliang Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The fundamental law of highway congestion states that when congested, the travel speed on an expanded expressway reverts to its previous level before the capacity expansion. In this paper, we propose a theory that generalizes this statement and finds that if there exists a coverage effect, that is, the effect of longer road length on traffic conditional on capacity, then the new equilibrium travel speed could be lower than its previous level. Given the fundamental law, the theory predicts that the elasticity of traffic to road capacity is at least 1. We estimate this elasticity for national expressways in Japan …

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Wealth Management In Singapore, Francis Koh May 2014

Wealth Management In Singapore, Francis Koh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

As early as 2015, Singapore may oust Switzerland as the world’s top finance hub. But the path forward requires adjustments in the strategic direction of individual firms. Wealth management in Singapore is vibrant, growing, challenging.

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Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Partially Observed Diffusion Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug May 2014

Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Partially Observed Diffusion Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a maximum likelihood (ML) method to estimate partially observed diffusion models based on data sampled at discrete times. The method combines two techniques recently proposed in the literature in two separate steps. In the first step, the closed form approach of Aït-Sahalia (2008) is used to obtain a highly accurate approximation to the joint transition probability density of the latent and the observed states. In the second step, the efficient importance sampling technique of Richard and Zhang (2007) is used to integrate out the latent states, thereby yielding the likelihood function. Using both simulated and real data, …

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On Confidence Intervals For Autoregressive Roots And Predictive Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips May 2014

On Confidence Intervals For Autoregressive Roots And Predictive Regression, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Local to unity limit theory is used in applications to construct confidence intervals (CIs) for autoregressive roots through inversion of a unit root test (Stock (1991)). Such CIs are asymptotically valid when the true model has an autoregressive root that is local to unity (rho = 1 + c/n), but are shown here to be invalid at the limits of the domain of definition of the localizing coefficient c because of a failure in tightness and the escape of probability mass. Failure at the boundary implies that these CIs have zero asymptotic coverage probability in the stationary case and vicinities …

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A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei Apr 2014

A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a Keynesian model of aggregate consumption. Our theory emphasizes the importance of the relative income hypothesis and debt finance for understanding household consumption behavior. It is shown that particular importance attaches to how net debtor households service their debts, and that the treatment of debt-servicing commitments as a substitute for savings by these households creates the potential for 'sudden stops' in consumption spending (and hence aggregate demand).

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Long-Term Health Effects Of Malaria Exposure Around Birth: Evidence From Colonial Taiwan, Simon Chang, Belton Fleisher, Seonghoon Kim, Shi-Yung Liu Apr 2014

Long-Term Health Effects Of Malaria Exposure Around Birth: Evidence From Colonial Taiwan, Simon Chang, Belton Fleisher, Seonghoon Kim, Shi-Yung Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the early 20th century, the Japanese colonial government initiated an island-wide malaria eradication campaign in Taiwan, resulting in not only a rapid decline in malaria across time but also elimination of disparity across regions. Exploiting variations in malaria deaths caused by the campaign, we estimate causal effects of malaria exposure around birth on the health of elderly born in the colonial period. To mitigate potential biases caused by measurement errors and omitted confounders, we employ climatic factors to instrument for malaria deaths. Our findings suggest that people who were exposed to a high malaria risk around birth tend to …

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Further Evidence On The Spatio-Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li Apr 2014

Further Evidence On The Spatio-Temporal Model Of House Prices In The United States, Badi H. Baltagi, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Holly, Pesaran, and Yamagata (Journal of Econometrics 2010; 158: 160–173) use a panel of 49 states over the period 1975–2003 to show that state-level real housing prices are driven by economic fundamentals, such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, such as changes in interest rates, oil prices and technological change. They apply the common correlated effects estimator of Pesaran (Econometrica 2006; 74(4): 967–101), which takes into account spatial interactions that reflect both geographical proximity and unobserved common factors. This paper replicates their results using a panel of 381 metropolitan statistical areas observed over the …

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Effects Of Labour Taxes On Hours Of Market And Home Work: The Role Of International Capital Mobility And Trade, Hian Teck Hoon Apr 2014

Effects Of Labour Taxes On Hours Of Market And Home Work: The Role Of International Capital Mobility And Trade, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Prescott hypothesis that permanently higher marginal tax rates on labour income fully explain the decline in market hours worked in Europe (relative to North America) over three decades is subject to a theoretical investigation. The Prescott model consists of isolated economies that are not linked by international capital mobility or international exchange of goods. We study a two-country model with free international capital mobility. We find that imposing higher marginal labour tax rates in one country leads to international capital inflows into that country, which acts to counteract the negative employment effect of higher taxes. Market hours worked in …

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The Influence Of State Policy And Proximity To Medical Services On Health Outcomes, Jing Li Mar 2014

The Influence Of State Policy And Proximity To Medical Services On Health Outcomes, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines two factors that help to explain geographic variation in health outcomes. The first factor concerns proximity to medical services. The second factor is state-specific health care policy that may impede access to nearby medical services. Four key findings are obtained. First, the effect of local doctors on reducing mortality rates of various diseases in a county attenuates with distance. Second, at approximately the same distance, in-state doctors contribute more to lowering mortality rates in the primary county than do out-of-state doctors. Third, the lesser impact of nearby out-of-state doctors is further reduced when the primary state adopts …

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Improving Money's Worth Ratio Calculations: The Case Of Singapore's Pension Annuities, Joelle H. Y. Fong, Jean Lemaire, Yiu Kuen Tse Mar 2014

Improving Money's Worth Ratio Calculations: The Case Of Singapore's Pension Annuities, Joelle H. Y. Fong, Jean Lemaire, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article contributes to a better understanding of the risks involved in a life annuity investment. We examine the distribution of weighted annuity benefits and assess various measures of dispersion such as the coefficient of variance. In particular, we quantify the standard deviation about the expected value, thereby extending the usefulness of the popular money’s worth framework for annuity valuation. The effort toward a more detailed and more accurate risk picture of investing in annuities enables retirees to differentiate among products that may appear seemingly uniform in terms of money’s worth, but vary widely in terms of their risk attributes.

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Interim Equilibrium Implementation, Takashi Kunimoto Mar 2014

Interim Equilibrium Implementation, Takashi Kunimoto

Research Collection School Of Economics

A social choice rule is said to be implementable if one can design a mechanism(or institution) in which the set of outcomes prescribed by a given solutionconcept coincides with that specified by the social choice rule. I adoptinterim equilibrium (i.e., Bayesian Nash equilibrium where each agent’s interimbeliefs do not necessarily admit a prior) as the solution concept andinvestigate the corresponding implementation problem in general incompleteinformation environments. I identify arguably the weakest set of conditionsunder which implementation in interim equilibrium is possible. By doingso, I also unify the literature of the so-called Bayesian implementation andNash implementation.

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The Makings Of A Social Investment State, Tan K. B. Eugene Feb 2014

The Makings Of A Social Investment State, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

In a commentary, SMU Associate Professor of Law and NMP Eugene Tan opined that the Budget was an economic, political and social instrument, and not just a fiscal policy instrument. He said that key economic themes persisted in Budget 2014: productivity, restructuring, reducing reliance on foreign labour and long-term planning. He highlighted that the Budget was dominated by social themes, as it exuded inclusiveness, equity and gratitude. The Government’s expansion of schemes to reduce the income gap and improve social mobility was actually a move to make up for its lack of investments in the social sector in past years, …

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Budget 2014 Is About Doing The Right Thing, Tan K. B. Eugene Feb 2014

Budget 2014 Is About Doing The Right Thing, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

In a commentary, SMU Associate Professor of Law and NMP Eugene Tan opined that the Budget’s move for the Pioneer Generation Package (PGP) was important and the right thing to do, as it mattered politically, and provided benefits and assurance to the pioneers. He said it was wise to set aside the $8b cost of the package, so future generations would not bear the cost of financing it. The Budget had acknowledged its role in caring for the elderly as well as preparing for the future and promoting social mobility through education assistance schemes for the children of lower earners, …

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Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Taylor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G. C. Lim, Paul D. Mcnelis Feb 2014

Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Taylor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G. C. Lim, Paul D. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.

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Number Of Firms And Price Competition, Kyle Bagwell, Gea Myoung Lee Feb 2014

Number Of Firms And Price Competition, Kyle Bagwell, Gea Myoung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

The relationship between the number of firms and price competition is a central issue in economics. To explore this relationship, we modify Varianís (1980) model and assume that firms are privately informed about their costs of production. Allowing that the support of possible cost types may be large, we show that an increase in the number of firms induces lower (higher) prices for lower-cost (highercost) firms. We also characterize the pricing distribution as the number of firms approaches infinity, finding that the equilibrium pricing function converges to the monopoly pricing function for all but the lowest possible cost type. If …

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The Lasting Impact Of Parental Early Life Malnutrition On Their Offspring: Evidence From The China Great Leap Forward Famine, Seonghoon Kim, Quheng Deng, Belton M. Fleisher, Shi Li Feb 2014

The Lasting Impact Of Parental Early Life Malnutrition On Their Offspring: Evidence From The China Great Leap Forward Famine, Seonghoon Kim, Quheng Deng, Belton M. Fleisher, Shi Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate whether the effects of parents’ in utero malnutrition extend to the second generation (their children). Specifically, we explore whether the second generation’s level of schooling is negatively impacted by their parents’ malnutrition in utero, using the China Famine as a natural experiment. We find that, the impact of mother’s in utero malnutrition due to the Famine reduced second generation male and female entrance into junior secondary school by about 5–7 percentage points. We measure famine severity with provincial excess death rates instrumented by measures of adverse climate conditions, which corrects for possible biases induced by measurement errors and …

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