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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Exchange Rates And Export Structure, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Yingke Zhou Sep 2014

Exchange Rates And Export Structure, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Yingke Zhou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies whether changes in the exchange rate affect a country’s export structure, using an arguably exogenous sudden appreciation of renminbi on July 21, 2005 as the main source of identification. Employing combined regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences approach, we show that China’s export structure became more similar to that of the developed countries after the currency appreciation. We also find that the majority of the appreciation effect comes from the inter-firm resource reallocation rather than the inter-region or intra-firm resource reallocation.

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A Characterization Of Single-Peaked Preferences Via Random Social Choice Functions, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng Sep 2014

A Characterization Of Single-Peaked Preferences Via Random Social Choice Functions, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper proves the following result: every path-connected domain of preferences that admits a strategy-proof, unanimous, tops-only random social choice function satisfying a compromise property, is single-peaked. Conversely, every single-peaked domain admits a random social choice function satisfying these properties. Single-peakedness is defined with respect to arbitrary trees. We also show that a maximal domain that admits a strategy-proof, unanimous, tops-only random social choice function satisfying a stronger version of the compromise property, is single-peaked on a line. A converse to this result also holds. The paper provides justification of the salience of single-peaked preferences and evidence in favour of …

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Asymptotic Distribution And Finite-Sample Bias Correction Of Qml Estimators For Spatial Dependence Model, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang Sep 2014

Asymptotic Distribution And Finite-Sample Bias Correction Of Qml Estimators For Spatial Dependence Model, Shew Fan Liu, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In studying the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimators for the spatial linear regression models, much attention has been paid to the spatial lag dependence (SLD) model; little has been given to its companion, the spatial error dependence (SED) model. In particular, the effect of spatial dependence on the convergence rate of the QML estimators has not been formally studied, and methods for correcting finite-sample bias of the QML estimators have not been given. This paper fills in these gaps. Of the two, bias correction is particularly important to the application of this model. Contrary to the …

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Borrower Targeting Under Microfinance: Competition With Motivated Microfinance Institutions And Strategic Complementarity, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury Sep 2014

Borrower Targeting Under Microfinance: Competition With Motivated Microfinance Institutions And Strategic Complementarity, Brishti Guha, Prabal Roy Chowdhury

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine how increased competition among motivated microfinance institutions (MFIs) impacts the poorest borrowers’ access to microfinance. We find that competition depends on inequality, technology, and the possibility of double-dipping (borrowing from several sources). Without competition, even a motivated MFI may lend to the not-so-poor in preference to poor borrowers. If double-dipping is feasible, competition may encourage lending to the poor. The presence of double-dipping is critical for MFI competition to have a positive effect. When double-dipping is feasible, MFI coordination may worsen borrower targeting whenever inequality is intermediate. We discuss policy implications dealing with double-dipping, MFI coordination, and competition.

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Wage A Measured Battle Against The Bottle, Tan K. B. Eugene Aug 2014

Wage A Measured Battle Against The Bottle, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

In a commentary, SMU Associate Professor of Law and Nominated Member of Parliament Eugene Tan believed that there are legitimate and pressing concerns to justify the close scrutiny of the existing regime on alcohol sale and consumption. He felt that the authorities could leverage market research data to understand the drinking culture and norms here and generate nuanced regulatory responses to alcohol sale and consumption. The insights gleaned from such research could aid our understanding of the dynamics of the drinking culture here. Associate Prof Tan added that the key policy challenge in the review process is to tackle the …

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Bayesian Testing Volatility Persistence In Stochastic Volatility Models With Jumps, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li Aug 2014

Bayesian Testing Volatility Persistence In Stochastic Volatility Models With Jumps, Xiaobin Liu, Yong Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

Whether or not there is a unit root persistence in volatility of financial assets has been a long-standing topic of interest to financial econometricians and empirical economists. The purpose of this article is to provide a Bayesian approach for testing the volatility persistence in the context of stochastic volatility with Merton jump and correlated Merton jump. The Shanghai Composite Index daily return data is used for empirical illustration. The result of Bayesian hypothesis testing strongly indicates that the volatility process doesn’t have unit root volatility persistence in this stock market.

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Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Phillips' Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu Aug 2014

Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Phillips' Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Econometric analysis of continuous time models has drawn the attention of Peter Phillips for 40 years, resulting in many important publications by him. In these publications he has dealt with a wide range of continuous time models and the associated econometric problems. He has investigated problems from univariate equations to systems of equations, from asymptotic theory to finite sample issues, from parametric models to nonparametric models, from identification problems to estimation and inference problems, from stationary models to nonstationary and nearly nonstationary models. This paper provides an overview of Peter Phillips' contributions in the continuous time econometrics literature. We review …

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Robustify Financial Time Series Forecasting With Bagging, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah Aug 2014

Robustify Financial Time Series Forecasting With Bagging, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a revised version of (bagging) bootstrap aggregating as a forecast combination method for the out-of-sample forecasts in time series models. The revised version explicitly takes into account the dependence in time series data and can be used to justify the validity of bagging in the reduction of mean squared forecast error when compared with the unbagged forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works quite well and outperforms the traditional one-step-ahead linear forecast as well as the nonparametric forecast in general, especially when the in-sample estimation period is small. We also find that …

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Specification Test For Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Yonghui Zhang Aug 2014

Specification Test For Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we propose a consistent nonparametric test for linearity in a large dimensional panel data model with interactive fixed effects. Both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form are allowed in the model. We estimate the model under the null hypothesis of linearity to obtain the restricted residuals which are then used to construct the test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and standardized, the test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under both the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives by using the concept of conditional strong mixing that was recently …

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Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su Aug 2014

Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the problem of frequentist model averaging for quantile regression (QR) when all the M models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters in some or all models is diverging with the sample size n. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and the regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate that the jackknife selected weight vector is asymptotically optimal in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error among the given …

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Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips Aug 2014

Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized regression techniques. We focus on linear models where the slope parameters are heterogeneous across groups but homogenous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered — penalized least squares (PLS) for models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for models with endogeneity. In both cases we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single …

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Unilateral Emissions Mitigation, Spillovers, And Global Learning, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal, Sean Walsh, John Whalley Aug 2014

Unilateral Emissions Mitigation, Spillovers, And Global Learning, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal, Sean Walsh, John Whalley

Research Collection School Of Economics

What's the role of unilateral measures in global climate change mitigation in a post-Durban, post 2012 global policy regime? We argue that under conditions of preference heterogeneity, unilateral emissions mitigation at a subnational level may exist even when a nation is unwilling to commit to emission cuts. We establish that under certain assumptions, in a global strongly connected network of countries, learning the costs of switching to a low emissions activity can result in a universal adoption of such activities. We analyze the features of a policy proposal that could accelerate convergence to a low carbon world in the presence …

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A Flexible And Automated Likelihood Based Framework For Inference In Stochastic Volatility Models, Hans J. Skaug, Jun Yu Aug 2014

A Flexible And Automated Likelihood Based Framework For Inference In Stochastic Volatility Models, Hans J. Skaug, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Laplace approximation is used to perform maximum likelihood estimation of univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models. It is shown that the implementation of the Laplace approximation is greatly simplified by the use of a numerical technique known as automatic differentiation (AD). Several algorithms are proposed and compared with some existing maximum likelihood methods using both simulated data and actual data. It is found that the new methods match the statistical efficiency of the existing methods while significantly reducing the coding effort. Also proposed are simple methods for obtaining the filtered, smoothed and predictive values for the latent variable. …

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Minimum Investment Requirements, Financial Market Globalization, And Symmetry Breaking, Haiping Zhang Aug 2014

Minimum Investment Requirements, Financial Market Globalization, And Symmetry Breaking, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We incorporate wealth heterogeneity and the minimum investment requirements in the model of Matsuyama (2004, Econometrica) and provide a complete characterization of symmetry breaking. In particular, we identify the extensive margin of investment as a key channel through which the interest rate may respond positively to capital accumulation, or equivalently, the interest rate can be higher in the rich than in the poor countries. Then, financial market globalization may lead to “uphill” capital flows from the poor to the rich countries, which widens the initial cross-country income gap and leads to income divergence among inherently identical countries, a phenomenon that …

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Assessing Market Failures In Export Pioneering Activities: A Structural Estimation Approach, Shang-Jin Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu Aug 2014

Assessing Market Failures In Export Pioneering Activities: A Structural Estimation Approach, Shang-Jin Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper provides a first structural-estimation-based assessment of an influential hypothesis that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum due to knowledge spillover in new market explorations. Such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is greater than any individual firm’s expected profit but Smaller than the sum of all potential exporters’ expected profits. Neither has to hold in the data. We estimate the structural parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. While we find positive discover cost and spillovers, "missing pioneers" are nonetheless a low probability event.

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Unit Roots In Life: A Graduate Student Story, Peter C. B. Phillips Aug 2014

Unit Roots In Life: A Graduate Student Story, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

What follows is a graduate student story. It draws on the first part of the speech I gave that evening at the NZESG conference dinner. It mixes personal reflections with recollections of the extraordinary New Zealanders who shaped my thinking as a graduate student and beginning researcher-people who have had an enduring impact on my work and career as an econometrician. The story traces out these human initial conditions and unit roots that figure in my early life of teaching and research.

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Nonlinearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos Aug 2014

Nonlinearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos

Research Collection School Of Economics

In regressions involving integrable functions we examine the limit properties of instrumental variable (IV) estimators that utilise integrable transformations of lagged regressors as instruments. The regressors can be either I(0) or nearly integrated (NI) processes. We show that this kind of nonlinearity in the regression function can significantly affect the relevance of the instruments. In particular, such instruments become weak when the signal of the regressor is strong, as it is in the NI case. Instruments based on integrable functions of lagged NI regressors display long range dependence and so remain relevant even at long lags, continuing to contribute to …

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A Combined Approach To The Inference Of Conditional Factor Models, Yan Li, Liangjun Su, Yuewu Xu Aug 2014

A Combined Approach To The Inference Of Conditional Factor Models, Yan Li, Liangjun Su, Yuewu Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating and testing conditional factor models in finance. We propose a two-stage procedure that naturally unifies the two existing approaches in the finance literature -- the parametric approach and the nonparametric approach. Our combined approach possesses important advantages over both methods. Using our two-stage combined estimator, we derive new test statistics for investigating key hypotheses in the context of conditional factor models. Our tests can be performed on a single asset or jointly across multiple assets. We further propose a novel test to directly check whether the parametric model used in our first …

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Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su Aug 2014

Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider the problem of determining the number of structural changes in multiple linear regression models via group fused Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). We show that with probability tending to one our method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and the estimated break dates are sufficiently close to the true break dates. We obtain estimates of the regression coefficients via post Lasso and establish the asymptotic distributions of the estimates of both break ratios and regression coefficients. We also propose and validate a data-driven method to determine the tuning parameter. Monte Carlo …

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The People Want The Fall Of The Regime: Schooling, Political Protest, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor Aug 2014

The People Want The Fall Of The Regime: Schooling, Political Protest, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide evidence that economic circumstances are a key intermediating variable for understanding the relationship between schooling and political protest. Using the World Values Survey, we find that individuals with higher levels of schooling, but whose income outcomes fall short of that predicted by their biographical characteristics, in turn display a greater propensity to engage in protest activities. We discuss a number of interpretations that are consistent with this finding, including the idea that economic conditions can affect how individuals trade off the use of their human capital between production and political activities. Our results could also reflect a link …

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Governance Matter: Morningstar Stewardship Grades And Mutual Fund Performance, Xiaping Jerry Cao, Aurobindo Ghosh, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh, Wee Seng Ng Jul 2014

Governance Matter: Morningstar Stewardship Grades And Mutual Fund Performance, Xiaping Jerry Cao, Aurobindo Ghosh, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh, Wee Seng Ng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Mutual fund investors have the arduous task of disentangling luck from ability of mutual fund managers’ performance. In this paper we investigate the role of mutual fund corporate governance (measured by Morningstar Stewardship grade) in mutual fund performance. We propose an objective data-driven corporate governance score based on principal components of Morningstar Stewardship Grades. Furthermore, we establish corporate governance scores have Granger Causality on long-term risk-adjusted returns. The findings suggest that corporate governance grades of mutual funds carry information content beyond the usual star rating measures for predicting long-term mutual fund performance and provide an effective tool for selecting funds.

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The Pains Of Economic Reforms In China And Japan, Singapore Management University Jul 2014

The Pains Of Economic Reforms In China And Japan, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Asia’s two biggest economies face up to their most difficult challenges

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International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow Jul 2014

International Transmission Of Interest Rates And The Open Economy Trilemma In Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

There has recently been much discussion on the relevance of the open economy trilemma in the context of deepening financial integration of countries across the world (see for instance, Rey (2013) and Devereux and Yetman (2014)). The open economy trilemma is an important issue for the countries in Asia not least because their financial systems are small and exchange rate stability is crucial to their economic growth. This paper investigates whether the economies in Asia are still bound by the "impossible trinity" by examining the interest rate transmission from the US to the region before and after the onset of …

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Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu Jul 2014

Bayesian Analysis Of Bubbles In Asset Prices, Andras Fulop, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a new asset price model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a stochastic long run mean. This latter is allowed to account for possible smooth structural change. The second regime reflects the bubble period with explosive behavior. Stochastic switches between two regimes and non-constant probabilities of exit from the bubble regime are both allowed. A Bayesian learning approach is employed to jointly …

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Relevance Of The Regulatory State In North/South Intersections, Mark Findlay, Si Wei Lim Jul 2014

Relevance Of The Regulatory State In North/South Intersections, Mark Findlay, Si Wei Lim

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Purpose – What seems like a new social anthropology of global regulation is an endeavour much too grand for this paper, even though it has much merit. To contain the analysis which follows, the discussion of social embeddedness will be restricted to a comparison of markets which retain some local or regional integrity from those which have become largely removed from cultural or communal social bonds. An example is between markets trading in goods and services with a consumer base which is local and subsistence, and markets in derivative products that are inextricably dependent on supranational location. The paper aims …

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Trade And Financial Integration, Extensive Margin, And Income Divergence, Haiping Zhang Jul 2014

Trade And Financial Integration, Extensive Margin, And Income Divergence, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We revisit the classical question on economic integration and income convergence in a two-sector OLG model with financial frictions and sectoral heterogeneity in minimum investment requirements (MIR, hereafter). The extensive margin of investment is a critical channel through which aggregate income may become a determinant of comparative advantage. Free trade allows the rich (poor) country to specialize partially or completely in the high-MIR (low-MIR) sector which has a high (low) return endogenously. The specialization effect interacts with the neoclassical effect, which may lead to income divergence among inherently identical countries. Similarly, financial integration may also lead to income divergence through …

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Marriage And Child Bearing, Kong Weng Ho Jul 2014

Marriage And Child Bearing, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter considers the impact of existing incentives and policies to encourage marriage and child-birth, and other direct and indirect ways to raise the total fertility rate (TFR).

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Why Cpf-Style Systems Generally Work Better, Hian Teck Hoon Jul 2014

Why Cpf-Style Systems Generally Work Better, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Central Provident Fund (CPF) has been in existence since 1955, and plays an important role in the lives of millions of Singaporeans. But this does not mean there is nothing to be learnt from asking some fundamental questions about its usefulness.

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How Effective Can Ex Post Destruction Alleviate The Hold-Up Problem?, Huan Wang, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang Jul 2014

How Effective Can Ex Post Destruction Alleviate The Hold-Up Problem?, Huan Wang, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We first investigate whether or not ex post destruction can possibly alleviate the hold-up problem in a one-shot game between a supplier and a buyer. The answer is yes but only when the buyer believes that the supplier might be a Homo reciprocans agent with sufficiently strong propensity for reciprocity. Under incomplete information with informed supplier, investment is made feasible by the “mismatch” between the buyer’s belief of stronger supplier reciprocal propensity and a de facto weaker one. Under incomplete information with uninformed supplier, the “mismatch” between the buyer’s belief of weaker supplier reciprocal propensity and a stronger ex post …

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Random Dictatorship Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng Jul 2014

Random Dictatorship Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

A domain of preference orderings is a random dictatorship domain if every strategy-proof random social choice function satisfying unanimity defined on the domain is a random dictatorship. Gibbard (1977) showed that the universal domain is a random dictatorship domain. We ask whether an arbitrary dictatorial domain is a random dictatorship domain and show that the answer is negative by constructing dictatorial domains that admit anonymous, unanimous, strategy-proof random social choice functions which are not random dictatorships. Our result applies to the constrained voting model. Lastly, we show that substantial strengthenings of linked domains (a class of dictatorial domains introduced in …

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