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Articles 1141 - 1170 of 2456
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Vietnam's Economic Transformation: Embracing Change, Vu Khoan, Philip Charles Zerrillo
Vietnam's Economic Transformation: Embracing Change, Vu Khoan, Philip Charles Zerrillo
Asian Management Insights
The former Deputy Prime Minister of Vietnam from 2002 to 2006, Mr Vu Khoan, talks about the transformation of the country from economic isolationism to its current economic strength, in this interview with Philip Zerrillo.
Asean's Digital Economy, Naveen Menon
Asean's Digital Economy, Naveen Menon
Asian Management Insights
Transforming industries, enriching lives and propelling progress.
Connecting India, Sam Pitroda
Connecting India, Sam Pitroda
Asian Management Insights
Great inventions will not be born in the absence of the will and intent to embrace change and solve wideranging societal problems.
The New Dragon Dance, Sarita Mathur
The New Dragon Dance, Sarita Mathur
Asian Management Insights
Is China moving to a new normal?
Days To Cover And Stock Returns, Harrison G. Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Sophie X. Ni, Jose A. Scheinkman, Philip Yan
Days To Cover And Stock Returns, Harrison G. Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Sophie X. Ni, Jose A. Scheinkman, Philip Yan
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A crowded trade emerges when speculators' positions are large relative to the asset's liquidity, making exit difficult. We study this problem of recent regulatory concern by focusing on short-selling. We show that days to cover (DTC), the ratio of short interest to trading volume, measures the costliness of exiting crowded trades. Crowding is an important concern as short-sellers avoid illiquid stocks, which we establish using an instrumental-variables strategy involving staggered stock market decimalization reforms. Arbitrageurs require a premium to enter into such trades as a strategy shorting high DTC stocks and buying low DTC stocks generates a 1.2% monthly return. …
Homogeneity Pursuit In Panel Data Models: Theory And Applications, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Homogeneity Pursuit In Panel Data Models: Theory And Applications, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies estimation of a panel data model with latent structures where individuals can be classified into different groups where slope parameters are homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups. To identify the unknown group structure of vector parameters, we design an algorithm called Panel-CARDS which is a systematic extension of the CARDS procedure proposed by Ke, Fan, and Wu (2015) in a cross section framework. The extension addresses the problem of comparing vector coefficients in a panel model for homogeneity and introduces a new concept of controlled classification of multidimensional quantities called the segmentation net. We …
Asymptotically Refined Score And Gof Tests For Inverse Gaussian Models, Anthony F. Desmond, Zhenlin Yang
Asymptotically Refined Score And Gof Tests For Inverse Gaussian Models, Anthony F. Desmond, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The score test and the GOF test for the inverse Gaussian distribution, in particular the latter, are known to have large size distortion and hence unreliable power when referring to the asymptotic critical values. We show in this paper that with the appropriately bootstrapped critical values, these tests become second-order accurate, with size distortion being essentially eliminated and power more reliable. Two major generalizations of the score test are made: one is to allow the data to be right-censored, and the other is to allow the existence of covariate effects. A data mapping method is introduced for the bootstrap to …
Shrinkage Estimation Of Covariance Matrix For Portfolio Choice With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Ningning Xia, Jun Yu
Shrinkage Estimation Of Covariance Matrix For Portfolio Choice With High Frequency Data, Cheng Liu, Ningning Xia, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper examines the usefulness of high frequency data in estimating the covariancematrix for portfolio choice when the portfolio size is large. A computationally convenientnonlinear shrinkage estimator for the integrated covariance (ICV) matrix of financial as-sets is developed in two steps. The eigenvectors of the ICV are first constructed from adesigned time variation adjusted realized covariance matrix of noise-free log-returns of rel-atively low frequency data. Then the regularized eigenvalues of the ICV are estimated byquasi-maximum likelihood based on high frequency data. The estimator is always positivedefinite and its inverse is the estimator of the inverse of ICV. It minimizes the …
Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized techniques. We consider both linear and nonlinear models where the regression coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are consideredpenalized profile likelihood (PPL) estimation for the general nonlinear models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) estimation for linear models with endogeneity. In both cases, we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and …
Semiparametric Single Index Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: Theory And Practice, Guohua Feng, Bin Peng, Liangjun Su, Thomas Tao Yang
Semiparametric Single Index Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: Theory And Practice, Guohua Feng, Bin Peng, Liangjun Su, Thomas Tao Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper, we propose a single-index panel data model with unobserved multiple interactive fixed effects. This model has the advantages of being flexible and of being able to allow for common shocks and their heterogeneous impacts on cross sections, thus making it suitable for the investigation of many economic issues. We derive asymptotic theories for both the case where the link function is integrable and the case where the link function is non-integrable. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that our methodology works well for large N and T cases. In our empirical application, we illustrate our model by analyzing …
Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan
Invitation Strategy For Cutting Edge Industries Through Mncs And Global Talents: The Case Of Singapore, Kim Song Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore presents an interesting case of how a country achieves dynamic economic development and innovation through the "invitation" strategy of a business hub. Despite being a small city-state with limited domestic market size and no meaningful hinterland or natural resources to speak of, Singapore has managed to transform its economy dramatically over the past 50 years by leveraging the strengths of other economies. Specifically, it has been able to attract (or "invite") various types of productive resources, including foreign capital, foreign technology and foreign workers (both skilled and unskilled) to make up for what it lacks. This has helped Singapore …
Bias Correction And Refined Inferences For Fixed Effects Spatial Panel Data Models, Zhenlin Yang, Jihai Yu, Shew Fan Liu
Bias Correction And Refined Inferences For Fixed Effects Spatial Panel Data Models, Zhenlin Yang, Jihai Yu, Shew Fan Liu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper first presents simple methods for conducting up to third-order bias and variance corrections for the quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimators of the spatial parameter(s) in the fixed effects spatial panel data (FE-SPD) models. Then, it shows how the bias and variance corrections lead to refined t-ratios for spatial effects and for covariate effects. The implementation of these corrections depends on the proposed bootstrap methods of which validity is established. Monte Carlo results reveal that (i) the QML estimators of the spatial parameters can be quite biased, (ii) a second-order bias correction effectively removes the bias, and (iii) the …
Housing Policies In Singapore, Phang Sock Yong, Matthias Helble
Housing Policies In Singapore, Phang Sock Yong, Matthias Helble
Research Collection School of Economics
Singapore has developed a unique housing system, with three-quarters of its housing stock built by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and homeownership financed through Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings. As a result, the country’s homeownership rate of 90% is one of the highest among market economies. At different stages of its economic development, the Government of Singapore was faced with a different set of housing problems. An integrated land–housing supply and financing framework was established in the 1960s to solve the severe housing shortage. By the 1990s, the challenge was that of renewing aging estates and creating a market …
Need Based Aid From Selective Universities And The Achievement Gap Between Rich And Poor, Sunha Myong
Need Based Aid From Selective Universities And The Achievement Gap Between Rich And Poor, Sunha Myong
Research Collection School Of Economics
I study the role of need-based aid from selective universities in closing the achievement gap between rich and poor high school students. I focus on the incentive aspect of need-based aid that can change high school students’ effort choices. The impact of increasing need-based aid depends on the extent of borrowing constraints and how competition affects the relative performance of low- and high-income students. I develop a structural model of students’ learning, application, and admission processes, and estimate it with the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, a nationally representative sample. I use a geographic variation in costs of attending selective …
Tackling Technology Disruption In The Financial Sector: Are The Current Singapore Government Incentives And Labour Force Preparations Adequate?, Swee Liang Tan
Tackling Technology Disruption In The Financial Sector: Are The Current Singapore Government Incentives And Labour Force Preparations Adequate?, Swee Liang Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Catalyst Of Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia, Hui-Ying. Sng, Liyu Dou, Pradumna Bickram. Rana
Catalyst Of Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia, Hui-Ying. Sng, Liyu Dou, Pradumna Bickram. Rana
Research Collection School Of Economics
The essential question this paper seeks to answer is whether the business cycle co-movement in East Asia are fostered by internal bilateral trade within the region, specifically, intra-industry trade or by external forces like the influence of the world’s largest economy, namely, the United States. This paper examines the extent and robustness of the relationship between trade intensity and business cycle synchronization for nine East Asian countries in the period 1965–2008. Unlike previous studies which assume away the region’s concurrent connection with the rest of the world, in our regressions we control for both the US effect and the exchange …
New Skills At Work: Managing Skills Challenges In Asean-5, Kim Song Tan, James T. H. Tang
New Skills At Work: Managing Skills Challenges In Asean-5, Kim Song Tan, James T. H. Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The dynamic economies of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN-5) boasts a growth rate of close to 5% a year despite the sluggish global economy. However, whether ASEAN-5 can grow to be significant players in the global economy will depend critically on their abilities to train workers with relevant job skills required by growth-driving industries. This challenge requires governments and employers to work together and develop coherent policies and targeted incentive structures for workers to acquire general and job-specific skills. The report Managing Skills Challenges in ASEAN-5 provides insights and recommendations on how the ASEAN-5 countries can respond …
A Practical Test For Strict Exogeneity In Linear Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang, Jie Wei
A Practical Test For Strict Exogeneity In Linear Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang, Jie Wei
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper provides a practical test for strict exogeneity in linear panel data models with fixed effects when the number of individuals N goes to infinity while the number of time periods T is fixed. The test is based on the supremum of a sequence of Wald test statistics. Under suitable conditions, we establish the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and consistency of the test. A bootstrap procedure is proposed to improve the finite sample performance and the validity of the procedure is justified. We investigate the finite sample performance of the test via a small set of Monte …
Robust Forecast Comparison, Sainan Jin, Valentina Corradi, Norman R. Swanson
Robust Forecast Comparison, Sainan Jin, Valentina Corradi, Norman R. Swanson
Research Collection School Of Economics
Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. In order to address this issue, a novel criterion for forecast evaluation that utilizes the entire distribution of forecast errors is introduced. In particular, we introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority; and we develop tests for GL (CL) superiority that are based on an out-of-sample generalization of the tests introduced by Linton, Maasoumi, and Whang (2005, Review of Economic Studies …
Estimating The Volatility Occupation Time Via Regularized Laplace Inversion, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Tauchen
Estimating The Volatility Occupation Time Via Regularized Laplace Inversion, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Tauchen
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a consistent functional estimator for the occupation time of the spot variance of an asset price observed at discrete times on a finite interval with the mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The asset price is modeled nonparametrically as a continuous-time Itô semimartingale with nonvanishing diffusion coefficient. The estimation procedure contains two steps. In the first step we estimate the Laplace transform of the volatility occupation time and, in the second step, we conduct a regularized Laplace inversion. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the proposed estimator has good small-sample performance and in particular it is far …
Human-Scale Economics: Economic Growth And Poverty Reduction In Northeastern Thailand, Joel D. Moore, John A. Donaldson
Human-Scale Economics: Economic Growth And Poverty Reduction In Northeastern Thailand, Joel D. Moore, John A. Donaldson
Research Collection School of Social Sciences
Under what conditions does economic growth benefit the poor? One way to answer this question is to identify and compare positive and negative outlier areas, those that experience greater and lesser poverty reduction, respectively, compared to what was anticipated given their levels of economic growth. The more similar these areas, the more leverage there is to unearth the factors that allow the poor to benefit from growth. In this paper, we employ an inductive approach to glean possible pathways out of poverty from two highly similar underdeveloped neighboring provinces in northeastern Thailand. Using extensive fieldwork and interviews, we explore factors …
Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips
Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper characterizes systematic risk stemming from the possible occurrence of price bubbles and measures the impact of this additional risk factor on asset prices. Historical stock market behavior and recent empirical experience have led economists and policy makers to acknowledge that price bubbles in financial markets do occur and need to be accounted for in risk analysis. New econometric tools for analyzing mildly explosive behavior (Phillips and Magdalinos, 2007; Phillips et al., 2011) have made it possible to detect the presence of bubbles in data and to date stamp their origination and collapse, providing empirical confirmation of such episodes …
Associationistic Luce Rule, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang
Associationistic Luce Rule, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang
Research Collection School Of Economics
We develop an extension of Luce’s random choice model that incorporates a role forthe association of alternatives. Each alternative is characterized by a salience value, aLuce value, and its associated alternatives. The salience value captures the alternative’sability to attract the decision maker’s attention, and the Luce value measures thealternative’s desirability. The decision maker is first attracted by some alternativeaccording to a salience-based Luce-type formula, and then chooses among its associatedalternatives according to another desirability-based Luce-type formula. While retainingthe simplicity of the Luce rule, the theory accommodates some well-known behavioralphenomena in individual choice, such as the attraction effect (violations of regularity),and …
Incense Burning During Pregnancy And Birth Weight And Head Circumference Among Term Births: The Taiwan Birth Cohort Study, Le-Yu Chen, Christine Ho
Incense Burning During Pregnancy And Birth Weight And Head Circumference Among Term Births: The Taiwan Birth Cohort Study, Le-Yu Chen, Christine Ho
Research Collection School Of Economics
Incense burning for rituals or religious purposes is an important tradition in many countries. However, incense smoke contains particulate matter and gas products such as carbon monoxide, sulfur and nitrogen dioxide, which are potentially harmful to health. We analyzed the relationship between prenatal incense burning and birth weight and head circumference at birth using the Taiwan Birth Cohort Study. We performed multivariate regression analysis on a sample of 15,773 Taiwanese babies born in 2005 and controlled extensively for factors that may be correlated with incense burning and birth outcomes. Prenatal incense burning environment was associated with lower birth weight and …
Textual Analysis And Machine Leaning: Crack Unstructured Data In Finance And Accounting, Li Guo, Feng Shi, Jun Tu
Textual Analysis And Machine Leaning: Crack Unstructured Data In Finance And Accounting, Li Guo, Feng Shi, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In finance and accounting, relative to quantitative methods traditionally used, textual analysis becomes popular recently despite of its substantially less precise manner. In an overview of the literature, we describe various methods used in textual analysis, especially machine learning. By comparing their classification performance, we find that neural network outperforms many other machine learning techniques in classifying news category. Moreover, we highlight that there are many challenges left for future development of textual analysis, such as identifying multiple objects within one single document.
Modeling Speculative Bubbles With Diverse Investor Expectations, Peter C. B. Phillips
Modeling Speculative Bubbles With Diverse Investor Expectations, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
We construct a model of asset market exuberance, collapse and recovery using subjective investor-based rational expectations about the impact of fundamentals on the market price. Investors are assumed to have heterogeneous market sentiments, allowing them to be exuberant, cautious, or fundamentalist via boundary conditions that describe their respective views of the market impact of the same economic fundamentals. Equilibrium solution paths of the model take varying forms, depending on the parameter settings that reflect the importance of each type of market participant. This rational expectations model of asset pricing is shown to be consistent with a simple explosive continuous time …
Asymptotic Theory For Estimating The Persistent Parameter In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Asymptotic Theory For Estimating The Persistent Parameter In The Fractional Vasicek Model, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops the asymptotic theory for the least squares (LS) estimator of the persistent parameter in the fractional Vasicek model when a continuous record of observations is available. The fractional Vasicek model is assumed to be driven by the fractional Brownian motion with a known Hurst parameter greater than or equal to one half. It is shown that the asymptotic properties depend on the sign of the persistent parameter, corresponding to the stationary case, the explosive case and the null recurrent case. The strong consistency and the asymptotic distribution are obtained in all three cases.
Climate Change And Vulnerability To Poverty: An Empirical Investigation In Rural Indonesia, Tomoki Fujii
Climate Change And Vulnerability To Poverty: An Empirical Investigation In Rural Indonesia, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
Scientists estimate that anthropogenic climate change leads to increased surface temperature, sea-level rise, more frequent and significant extreme weather and climate events, among others. In this study, we investigate how climate change can potentially change the vulnerability to poverty using a panel data set in Indonesia. We focus on the effect of drought and flood, two of the commonly observed disasters there. Our simulation results indicate that vulnerability to poverty may increase substantially as a result of climate change in Indonesia.
Concepts And Measurement Of Vulnerability To Poverty And Other Issues: A Review Of Literature, Tomoki Fujii
Concepts And Measurement Of Vulnerability To Poverty And Other Issues: A Review Of Literature, Tomoki Fujii
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper reviews the growing body of literature on vulnerability. We first provide a survey of existing studies on the concepts and measurements of vulnerability to poverty by classifying them into welfarist, expected poverty, and axiomatic approaches. We then review a number of empirical studies on vulnerability to poverty in Asia and elsewhere. This review shows that poverty and vulnerability are related, but different, and that key determinants of vulnerability often include education and location. We also briefly review other areas of vulnerability analysis such as vulnerability to climate change and offer various policy implications arising from vulnerability analysis.
Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips
Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper characterizes systematic risk stemming from the possible occurrence of price bubbles and measures the impact of this additional risk factor on asset prices. Historical stock market behavior and recent empirical experience have led economists and policy makers to acknowledge that price bubbles in financial markets do occur and need to be accounted for in risk analysis. New econometric tools for analyzing mildly explosive behavior (Phillips and Magdalinos, 2007; Phillips et al., 2011) have made it possible to detect the presence of bubbles in data and to date stamp their origination and collapse, providing empirical confirmation of such episodes …