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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Do Disaster Experience And Knowledge Affect Insurance Take-Up Decisions?”, Jing Cai, Changcheng Song Jan 2017

Do Disaster Experience And Knowledge Affect Insurance Take-Up Decisions?”, Jing Cai, Changcheng Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study examines the effect of experience and knowledge on weather insurance adoption. First, we conduct insurance games with farmers, and find that the treatment improves real insurance take-up by 46%. The effect is not driven by changes in risk attitudes and perceived probability of disasters, or by learning of insurance benefits, but is driven by the experience acquired in the game. Second, we find that providing information about the payout probability has a strong positive effect on insurance take-up. Finally, when subjects receive both treatments, the probability information has a greater impact on take-up than does the disaster experience.

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The Contribution Of Eu Funds To Wellbeing And Sustainable Development In Central European Countries, Mirjana Kranjac, Uros Sikimic, Srdan Tomic, Jelena Vapa-Tankosic Jan 2017

The Contribution Of Eu Funds To Wellbeing And Sustainable Development In Central European Countries, Mirjana Kranjac, Uros Sikimic, Srdan Tomic, Jelena Vapa-Tankosic

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The European strategic goals are good standard of living, social and economic wellbeing and sustainability of the Planet Earth. Some of these requirements are contradictory. Often times, a successful economy exhausts nature well beyond its limits. Europe is achieving its goals by giving funds to many programs, thus enabling the elaboration of projects. The programs' and projects' goals and results must justify the global vision of European Union (EU) future, precisely defined in the document Europa 2020: to achieve a sustainable future. This paper is dealing with effects of the use of EU funds in Central European (CEE) countries. The …

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Are Shorts Equally Informed? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Wang Jan 2017

Are Shorts Equally Informed? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Short selling predicts future stock returns globally. We use 11 short-sale measures to examine the informativeness of short sales in 38 countries for the July 2006 to December 2014 period. We find that different short-sale measures display different return predictability. The days-to-cover ratio and loan supply measures have the most robust predictive power in the global capital market. We also document significant cross-country differences in the predictive power of the short selling measures and find that return predictability is stronger in countries with mild forms of short-sale restrictions, better market quality, and more developed markets.

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Inside The Black Box: Political Economy Of The Trans-Pacific Partnership's Encryption Clause, Han-Wei Liu Jan 2017

Inside The Black Box: Political Economy Of The Trans-Pacific Partnership's Encryption Clause, Han-Wei Liu

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Among other provisions of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement, a new clause on encryption technology (‘Encryption Clause’) is particularly noteworthy. By tracing the history of decades-long encryption control, this article underscores how this clause implicates international order. Modern encryption technology was conceived and developed during World Wars. Painted by such a war-time legacy, encryption has been treated as a ‘dual-use’ technology and has been subject to export control since the end of World War II via the Coordinating Committee for the Control of Multinational Trade (COCOM) and, later, the Wassenaar Arrangement. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Western …

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Efficient Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted Estimation In Missing Data Problems, Jing Qin, Biao Zhang, Denis H. Y. Leung Jan 2017

Efficient Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted Estimation In Missing Data Problems, Jing Qin, Biao Zhang, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

When analyzing data with missing data, a commonly used method is the inverse probability weighting (IPW) method, which reweights estimating equations with propensity scores. The popularity of the IPW method is due to its simplicity. However, it is often being criticized for being inefficient because most of the information from the incomplete observations is not used. Alternatively, the regression method is known to be efficient but is nonrobust to the misspecification of the regression function. In this article, we propose a novel way of optimally combining the propensity score function and the regression model. The resulting estimating equation enjoys the …

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When Price Precision Pays In Negotiations, Michael Schaerer Jan 2017

When Price Precision Pays In Negotiations, Michael Schaerer

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

When negotiating, is an offer of 99.95 euros better than 100 euros? Our recent study shows that there is no universally true answer to the question of price precision and that the right strategy depends on with whom you are negotiating.

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Changes In Depressive Symptoms Among Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions: Role Of Positive And Negative Social Supports, Sangnam Ahn, Seonghoon Kim, Hongmei Zhang Jan 2017

Changes In Depressive Symptoms Among Older Adults With Multiple Chronic Conditions: Role Of Positive And Negative Social Supports, Sangnam Ahn, Seonghoon Kim, Hongmei Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Depression severely affects older adults in the United States. As part of the social environment, significant social support was suggested to ameliorate depression among older adults. We investigate how varying forms of social support moderate depressive symptomatology among older adults with multiple chronic conditions (MCC). Data were analyzed using a sample of 11,400 adults, aged 65 years or older, from the 2006–2012 Health and Retirement Study. The current study investigated the moderating effects of positive or negative social support from spouse, children, other family, and friends on the association between MCC and depression. A linear mixed model with repeated measures …

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Determining Individual Or Time Effects In Panel Data Models, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su Jan 2017

Determining Individual Or Time Effects In Panel Data Models, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a jackknife method to determine individual and time e⁄ects in linear panel data models. We rst show that when both the serial and cross-sectional correlation among the idiosyncratic error terms are weak, our jackknife method can pick up the correct model with probability approaching one (w.p.a.1). In the presence of moderate or strong degree of serial correlation, we modify our jackknife criterion function and show that the modied jackknife method can also select the correct model w.p.a.1. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to show that our new methods perform remarkably well in nite samples. We …

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Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang Jan 2017

Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt.Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89%in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for householdfinancial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level datasetthat integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probabilityof default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks.This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there,the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is more likely forhouseholds with a debt service …

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Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang Jan 2017

Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt.Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89%in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for householdfinancial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level datasetthat integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probabilityof default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks.This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there,the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is more likely forhouseholds with a debt service …

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Mixed-Scale Jump Regressions With Bootstrap Inference, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen Jan 2017

Mixed-Scale Jump Regressions With Bootstrap Inference, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop an efficient mixed-scale estimator for jump regressions using high-frequency asset returns. A fine time scale is used to accurately identify the locations of large rare jumps in the explanatory variables such as the price of the market portfolio. A coarse scale is then used in the estimation in order to attenuate the effect of trading frictions in the dependent variable such as the prices of potentially less liquid assets. The proposed estimator has a non-standard asymptotic distribution that cannot be made asymptotically pivotal via studentization. We propose a novel bootstrap procedure for feasible inference and justify its asymptotic …

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Strategy-Proofness Of The Probabilistic Serial Rule On Sequentially Dichotomous Domains, Peng Liu Jan 2017

Strategy-Proofness Of The Probabilistic Serial Rule On Sequentially Dichotomous Domains, Peng Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A class of preference domains is proposed: sequentially dichotomous domains. On any sequentially dichotomous domain, the probabilistic serial rule (Bogomolnaia and Moulin (2001)) is sd-strategy-proof. In addition, any sequentially dichotomous domain is maximal for the probabilistic serial rule to be sd-strategy-proof.

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On Estimating Market Microstructure Noise Variance, Yingjie Dong, Yiu Kuen Tse Jan 2017

On Estimating Market Microstructure Noise Variance, Yingjie Dong, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the market microstructure noise-variance estimation of high-frequency stock prices. Based on the Hansen and Lunde (2006) approach, we propose estimates using subsampling method at different time scales. We conduct a Monte Carlo study to compare our method against others in the literature. Our results show that our proposed estimates have lower (absolute) mean error and root mean-squared error, and their performance is quite stable at different time scales.

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A Multivariate Stochastic Unit Root Model With An Application To Derivative Pricing, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips Jan 2017

A Multivariate Stochastic Unit Root Model With An Application To Derivative Pricing, Offer Lieberman, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper extends recent findings of Lieberman and Phillips (2014) on stochastic unit root (STUR) models to a multivariate case including asymptotic theory for estimation of the model's parameters. The extensions are useful for applications of STUR modeling and because they lead to a generalization of the Black-Scholes formula for derivative pricing. In place of the standard assumption that the price process follows a geometric Brownian motion, we derive a new form of the Black-Scholes equation that allows for a multivariate time varying coefficient element in the price equation. The corresponding formula for the value of a European-type call option …

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Estimating Smooth Structural Change In Cointegration Models, Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li, Jiti Gao Jan 2017

Estimating Smooth Structural Change In Cointegration Models, Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li, Jiti Gao

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies nonlinear cointegration models in which the structural coefficients may evolve smoothly over time, and considers time-varying coefficient functions estimated by nonparametric kernel methods. It is shown that the usual asymptotic methods of kernel estimation completely break down in this setting when the functional coefficients are multivariate. The reason for this breakdown is a kernel induced degeneracy in the weighted signal matrix associated with the nonstationary regressors, a new phenomenon in the kernel regression literature. Some new techniques are developed to address the degeneracy and resolve the asymptotics, using a path-dependent local coordinate transformation to reorient coordinates and …

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Reducing Extreme Poverty Through Skill Training For Industry Job Placement, Abu S. Shonchoy, Selim Raihan, Tomoki Fujii Jan 2017

Reducing Extreme Poverty Through Skill Training For Industry Job Placement, Abu S. Shonchoy, Selim Raihan, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vocational training programs aimed at rapidly growing sectors have the potential to reduce skills gaps, improve income and employment potentials. Such programs often been unsuccessful, because they are not driven by industry-demand and market-linkages, and they are not well targeted. Our rigorous RCT-based impact study shows that a targeted training-program offered to poor rural households in northwest Bangladesh has significant effects on employment in garment factories. Data from a follow-up — six and twelve months’ after the intervention — shows a statistically significant and large employment effect of the training program when it is combined with the stipend or internship.This …

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Jump Regressions, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen Jan 2017

Jump Regressions, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop econometric tools for studying jump dependence of two processes from high-frequency observations on a fixed time interval. In this context, only segments of data around a few outlying observations are informative for the inference. We derive an asymptotically valid test for stability of a linear jump relation over regions of the jump size domain. The test has power against general forms of nonlinearity in the jump dependence as well as temporal instabilities. We further propose an efficient estimator for the linear jump regression model that is formed by optimally weighting the detected jumps with weights based on the …

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Retirement Adequacy Of Mature Workers In Singapore, Rhema Vaithianathan, Stephen Hoskins Jan 2017

Retirement Adequacy Of Mature Workers In Singapore, Rhema Vaithianathan, Stephen Hoskins

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the last decade, the Singapore resident population has grown older with more elderly and fewer younger people. As Singapore Department of Statistics noted, the proportion of residents aged 65 years and over has increased from 9% to 13% over the past ten years. There are now fewer working-age adults to support each resident aged 65 years and over as indicated by the falling resident old-age support ratio from 7.7 in 2007 to 5.1 in 2017. The support ratio is expected to halve to 2.5 by 2030. As Singaporeans are both living and working longer, it is vital for the …

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Worker Selection, Hiring, And Vacancies, Ismail Baydur Jan 2017

Worker Selection, Hiring, And Vacancies, Ismail Baydur

Research Collection School Of Economics

The ratio of hirings to vacancies in the U.S. has the following establishment level properties: (i) it steeply rises with employment growth rate; (ii) falls with establishment size; and (iii) rises with worker turnover rate. The standard Diamond-Mortensen Pissarides (DMP) matching model is not compatible with these observations. This paper augments selection of workers prior to hiring into a random matching model with multi-worker firms. In the calibrated model, worker selection accounts for about 30% of the variation in the hiring-vacancy ratio observed in the data. Compared to the standard model, the worker selection model has both qualitative and quantitative …

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Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang Dec 2016

Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing literature treats the short side (i.e., short selling) and the long side of hedge fund trading (i.e., fund holdings) independently. The two sides, however, complement each other: opposite changes in the two are likely to be driven by information, whereas simultaneous increases (decreases) of the two may be motivated by hedging (unwinding) considerations. We use this intuition to identify informed demand and document that it exhibits highly significant predictive power over returns (approximately 10% per year). We also find that informed demand forecasts future firm fundamentals, suggesting that hedge funds play an important role in information discovery. (C) …

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All In The Family: Economies Of Scale In Retail And Institutional Investment Management, Darwin Choi, Xi Li, Tong Yao, Zhe Zhang Dec 2016

All In The Family: Economies Of Scale In Retail And Institutional Investment Management, Darwin Choi, Xi Li, Tong Yao, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the (dis)economies of scale related to the joint management of retail mutual funds and institutional funds (i.e., investment portfolios catering to institutional clients). Similar to well-known observations for mutual funds, the performance of institutional funds is negatively related to fund size but positively related to fund family size, suggesting diseconomies of scale at individual fund level and economies of scale at fund family level. More importantly, there is spillover of the family size effect -- the performance of mutual funds (institutional funds) is positively related to the total institutional assets (mutual fund assets) managed by the same …

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The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi Dec 2016

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

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The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi Dec 2016

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

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Endogenous Quality Choice, Signaling, And Welfare, Gea M. Lee, Seung Han Yoo Dec 2016

Endogenous Quality Choice, Signaling, And Welfare, Gea M. Lee, Seung Han Yoo

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a model in which each worker endogenously selects his own type through aprivate investment decision and selects a public signal in the labor market. Signaling thencontributes to social welfare through its influence on the quality choice. We offer a rationalefor the argument that there are too many high-type workers from a welfare perspective,identifying circumstances under which separating equilibrium generates too many high-typeworkers while having to use the incentive-compatible signal and treat high-type workersdifferently in the market. The inefficiency can then be reduced in pooling equilibrium.

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Sharing Sequential Values In A Network, Ruben Juarez, Chiu Yu Ko, Jingyi Xue Dec 2016

Sharing Sequential Values In A Network, Ruben Juarez, Chiu Yu Ko, Jingyi Xue

Research Collection School Of Economics

Consider a sequential process where agents have individual values at every possible step. A planner is in charge of selecting steps and distributing the accumulated aggregate values among agents. We model this process by a directed network where each edge is associated with a vector of individual values. This model applies to several new and existing problems, e.g., developing a connected public facility and distributing total values received by surrounding districts; selecting a long-term production plan and sharing final profits among partners of a firm; choosing a machine schedule to serve different tasks and distributing total outputs among task owners. …

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Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals For Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, Qiying Wang Dec 2016

Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals For Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, Qiying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limit theory involving stochastic integrals is now widespread in time series econometrics and relies on a few key results on functional weak convergence. In establishing such convergence, the literature commonly uses martingale and semimartingale structures. While these structures have wide relevance, many applications involve a cointegration framework where endogeneity and nonlinearity play major roles and complicate the limit theory. This paper explores weak convergence limit theory to stochastic integral functionals in such settings. We use a novel decomposition of sample covariances of functions of I (1) and I (0) time series that simplifies the asymptotics and our limit results for …

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Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhai Qian, Liangjun Su Dec 2016

Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhai Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the number of structural changes in multiple linear regression models via group fused Lasso. We show that with probability tending to one, our method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks, and the estimated break dates are sufficiently close to the true break dates. We obtain estimates of the regression coefficients via post Lasso and establish the asymptotic distributions of the estimates of both break ratios and regression coefficients. We also propose and validate a data-driven method to determine the tuning parameter. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the proposed method …

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Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su Dec 2016

Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects And Multiple Structural Breaks, Degui Li, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this article, we consider estimation of common structural breaks in panel data models with unobservable interactive fixed effects. We introduce a penalized principal component (PPC) estimation procedure with an adaptive group fused LASSO to detect the multiple structural breaks in the models. Under some mild conditions, we show that with probability approaching one the proposed method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and consistently estimate the common break dates. Furthermore, we estimate the regression coefficients through the post-LASSO method and establish the asymptotic distribution theory for the resulting estimators. The developed methodology and theory are applicable to …

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Evaluating The Conditions For China’S 4th Industrial Revolution Plan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Analysis, Hing Lee Henry Chan Nov 2016

Evaluating The Conditions For China’S 4th Industrial Revolution Plan: A Neo-Schumpeterian Analysis, Hing Lee Henry Chan

Dissertations and Theses Collection

After 33 years (1979-2011) of close to double digit average annual economic growth, the Chinese economy decelerated to a mid-high single digit growth of approximately 7% per year since 2012. The country is currently facing the typical economic transition challenge of moving from being a high-middle income to high income economy. In response to this economic transition, the government launched an industrial innovation program that corresponds to the 4th Industrial Revolution in 2015-Made in China 2025, hoping to stabilize and rejuvenate China’s growth momentum through innovation. This thesis examines the pre-conditions for the successful implementation of this plan using the …

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Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose Nov 2016

Smarter Banking: Blockchain Technology In The Indian Banking System, Suparna Dhar, Indranil Bose

Asian Management Insights

Indian banks are currently experiencing poor performance when it comes to debt risk. Burdened with high non-performing loans (NPL), they are putting at risk the funds of investors as well as India’s industrial and economic growth. In addition, the loan management process itself is riddled with inefficiencies. To overcome them, we propose to use blockchain technology.

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