Economics Commons^™

What Makes Developing Asia Resilient In A Financially Globalized World?, Hiro Ito, Juthathip Jongwanich, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

The pullbacks of capital inflows to developing Asia following the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 have brought renewed attention to the role and benefits of financial globalization. A number of notable distinctions between the current global crisis and the Asian financial crisis have become evident. Solid domestic institutions, especially in the financial sector; swift policy responses; and a sound macroeconomic environment with adequate reserves have helped the region to manage well the adverse impacts of the global crisis. Empirical analysis examining the link between capital account openness and output volatility reveals that a developing country with a …

Surfing The Waves Of Globalization: Asia And Financial Globalization In The Context Of Trilemma, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using the "trilemma indexes" developed by Aizenman et al. (2008) that measure the extent of achievement in each of the three policy goals in the trilemma—monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial openness—this paper examines how policy configurations affect macroeconomic performances with focus on the Asian economies. We find that the three policy choices do not matter for per capita economic growth. However, they do matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a country …

The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing And Evaluating New Patterns Of The Trilemma Configuration, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. We find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. Greater financial openness, when accompanied by a high level of financial development, reduces output volatility.

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis Of International Reserves, Yin-Wong Cheung, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing …

Research Choice And Finance In University Bioscience, David E. Ervin, Steven T. Buccola, Hui Yang

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Academic bioscience's rising importance for downstream technology and growing private sector relationships have evoked substantial policy attention. We contribute to the scrutiny by asking how university bioscientists design and finance their research, with particular attention to the mutuality of research portfolio choice and funding success. The analysis requires consideration of other major influences on academic science, including scientific norms, human capital, and institutional environment. Drawing on a national survey of university bioscientists, we find that public financial support encourages more basic investigation and private support encourages more applied investigation. Yet downstream research is only moderately more excludable than upstream. Once …

U.S. Current Account Debate With Japan Then, With China Now, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines two U.S. current account deficit episodes, one in the 1980s and the other in the current 2000s, in which Japan and China, respectively, are the current account surplus countries that are criticized for contributing to the deficits. In both periods, U.S. policy makers pointed out the underdeveloped and closed financial markets of the current account surplus countries and advocated for these countries to fix the deficiencies, a position akin to the current “saving glut” argument. In both episodes, the current account surplus countries have criticized the United States for its low saving, especially public saving (the “Twin …

The Impact Of Corruption On The Timing And Mode Of Entry By U.S. Firms In China, Jacob Billings

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Since 1979 when China opened its economic borders, it has seen an influx of foreign direct investment that gradually snowballed into enormous annual inflows of capital. Researchers have taken advantage of this event as an incredibly useful testing ground of theories regarding FDI. Using this new data from China, along with data from countries already open to outside investment, many variables, such as GDP, wage, and distance, have been found to consistently correlate in one way or another to particular aspects of FDI inflow, including amount, location, timing, and type.

One such variable that has had some attention is corruption. …

Far-Flung Europe: What Is The Economic Impact Of Geography?, John Luke Gallup

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Several Western European countries have integral territory thousands of miles from continental Europe. The economic performance in these "outermost" regions tests the impact of geographical isolation in a high income, institutionally uniform setting quite different from the geographical challenges of poor, agriculturally dependent developing countries. The European regional data used have different starting years by country. This required the derivation of a new non-linear estimation model for cross-regional growth. The outermost regions converge to national income levels of continental Europe at least as fast as other poor continental regions, showing no special impact of geography on economic growth. Looking at …

Hysteresis In Unemployment: Evidence From Latin America, Matias Mednik, Cesar Rodriguez, Inder J. Ruprah

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper tests the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment for 13 Latin American countries covering the period 1980-2005. The tests exploit the time series and the cross sectional variation of the series, and allows for cross section dependence and a different number of endogenously determined structural breakpoints. The findings give support to the hysteric dynamic hypothesis for the majority of the countries analyzed. The implications of the results have ramifications regarding macro-stabilization, structural reform, and the design of social safety protection.

Economics Of Soil Conservation Adoption In High-Rainfall Areas Of The Ethiopian Highlands, Menale Kassie, Stein Holden, Gunnar Köhlin, Randall Bluffstone

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study measures the impact of fanya juu bunds (an important soil and water conservation technology and the most popular type of contour bund in east Africa) on the value of crop production in a high-rainfall area in the Ethiopian highlands using cross-sectional multiple plot observations. We applied switching regression, stochastic dominance analysis (SDA), and decomposition and propensity score matching methods to ensure robustness. The switching regression, SDA, and decomposition analyses relied on matched observations, which was important because regression and SDA often do not ensure that comparable plots with conservation technology (conserved) and plots without (unconserved) actually exist in …

East Asia And Global Imbalances: Saving, Investment, And Financial Development, Hiro Ito, Menzie David Chinn

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We investigate the role of budget balances, financial development and openness, in the evolution of global imbalances. Financial development – or the lack thereof – has received considerable attention as a possible contributing factor to the development of persistent and expanding current account imbalances. Several observers have argued that the depth and sophistication of US capital markets have caused capital to flow from relatively underdeveloped East Asian financial markets. In this paper, we extend our previous work by examining the effect of different types and aspects of financial development. Our cross-country analysis, encompassing a sample of 19 industrialized countries and …

The Science Of Persuasion In Recent Discourse On T.R. Malthus: An Exercise In The Analysis Of Rhetoric In Economics, Laila Winner

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Of all the dour portraits lining the august halls of Economics, it is that of Thomas Robert Malthus which seems perhaps to scowl the most grimly. Describing an approach or policy as Malthusian in everyday conversation conjures a host of disturbing images, bare fields and squalling babies chief among them. Such allusions provoke even stronger reactions within the discipline Malthus helped to found, ranging from Keynes's fervent championship to the sneering dismissal of Samuelson. Neither the more famous Smith nor Ricardo nor even Marx can claim to have gained in their lives what the comparatively less prolific Reverend did with …

Price-Based Measurement Of Financial Globalization: A Cross-Country Study Of Interest Rate Parity, Hiro Ito, Menzie David Chinn

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We characterize the relationship between ex post exchange rate depreciation and the interest differential for a set of countries that spans both developed and emerging market economies. The measured ex post uncovered interest differentials in terms of both levels and absolute values are then related to measures of trade and financial openness, financial development, government budget balances, institutional development, and exchange rate regimes. We find that there is wide diversity in the coefficient relating depreciations and interest differentials. Some of these differing results can be attributed to differences in inflation volatility, financial development, trade openness, capital account openness, legal development, …

A New Measure Of Financial Openness, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We create a new index that measures the extent of openness in capital account transactions. Despite the abundance of literature and policy analyses regarding the effect of financial liberalization, the debate is far from settled. One of the reasons for that outcome is the lack of proper ways of measuring the extent of the openness in cross-border financial transactions. We seek to remedy this deficiency by creating an index aimed at measuring the extensity of capital controls based on the information from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER). This paper details how we construct the …

Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy Versus East Asian Savings, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We consider the origins of global current account imbalances. We first discuss how the expansion of the US current account deficit and the decrease in global real interest rates can be reconciled with the widespread view that American expansionary fiscal policy is partly the source of current trends. We then investigate empirically the medium-term determinants of the current account using a model that controls for factors related to institutional development. In addition to the conventional macroeconomic factors, we examine a series of environmental factors, including the degree of financial openness and the extent of legal development. We find that for …

Current Account Balances, Financial Development And Institutions: Assaying The World “Saving Glut”, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We critically assess several of the key assertions underlying the global saving glut hypothesis. First, we investigate whether the behavior of the U.S. current account behavior is anomalous in light of previous industrial country experience. Second, we determine whether East Asian current account balances are predictable using standard macroeconomic variables, augmented with institutional factors. Finally, we investigate whether higher levels of financial development in key East Asian economies would result in smaller current account surpluses. We find that a one percentage-point increase in the budget balance would increase the current account balance by 0.10 to 0.49 percentage-points for industrialized countries, …

An Agent-Based Model Of Trade With Distance-Based Transaction Cost, Kumar Venkat, Wayne W. Wakeland

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper describes an application of agent-based modeling to investigate the effect of a distance-based transaction cost on trade. Long-distance trade is rapidly increasing, but may ultimately be constrained by our ability to move material goods between sellers and buyers. Unlike information exchange, trade in material goods is dependent on the price of oil and vulnerable to future scarcities of oil. In addition, there are growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from long-distance transportation. Our purpose in this study is to take the first step in understanding the impact of a distance constraint on free global trade using a simple …

Working Paper No. 30, On The Origins Of Laissez-Faire, Thomas Breaden

Working Papers in Economics

This paper traces laissez-faire back to its French roots, and in particular, to its origins as a political philosophy evoking an economic approach. Related to his visit to France in the 1760s and his personal contacts, we suggest that Adam Smith serves as the link between selected French thinkers and what after Smith’s Inquiry would be widely accepted as a quintessentially Anglo-Saxon tradition in economics. Exploring doctrine, we offer linkages between F. Quesnay, A. Turgot, J.J. Rousseau, and Smith’s ideas. Similarities in Smith’s understanding and the French exponents regarding economic activity vis-a- vis a public sector are presented, along with …

Beyond The Economic Catalyst Debate: Can Consumption Benefits Justify A Municipal Stadium Investment?, Charles Andrew Santo

Dissertations and Theses

The issue of public investment in sports facilities has garnered a great deal of attention from economists and public affairs researchers; however, relevant empirical research has become mired in a stagnant discussion of whether sports stadiums can serve as economic catalysts. A host of empirical studies have indicated that stadiums and arenas have no significant impact on metropolitan area income or employment. In light of this evidence, the continued proliferation of public investment in sports facilities, begs the question: is there some other justification for this spending, or are policymakers simply acting against the public interest (either irrationally, or in …

Financial Development And Financial Liberalization In Asia: Thresholds, Institutions And The Sequence Of Liberalization, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

I investigate whether financial openness leads to financial development after controlling for the level of legal/institutional development, and whether trade opening is a precondition for financial opening, focusing on Asia. Utilizing a panel encompassing 87 less developed countries over the period 1980 to 2000, I find that a higher level of financial openness spurs equity market development only if a threshold level of legal development has been attained, a condition prevalent particularly among emerging market Asian countries. On the issue of sequencing, trade openness is found to be a prerequisite for successful inducement of financial development via capital account liberalization.

What Matters For Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, And Interactions, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We extend our earlier work, focusing on the links between capital account liberalization, legal and institutional development, and financial development, especially that in equity markets. In a panel data analysis encompassing 108 countries and twenty years ranging from 1980 to 2000, we explore several dimensions of the financial sector. First, we test whether financial openness can lead to equity market development when we control for the level of legal and institutional development. Then, we examine whether the opening of the goods sector is a precondition for financial opening. Finally, we investigate whether a well-developed banking sector is a precondition for …

How Do The Asian Economies Compete With Japan In The Us Market, China Exceptional? A Triangular Trade Approach, Hiro Ito, Yushi Yoshida

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Political conflicts among trading partners have changed their forms with ever-increasing flows of foreign direct investment. A decrease in the exports of Japan might merely be a reflection of a global production shift by Japanese multinational corporations. We investigate the effect of Japanese trade on the exports of other countries to the United States in the 1990s. In our sample we include eight Asian countries besides the US and Japan. With the trade data disaggregated at the HS 4-digit level, we regress the exports of an Asian country to the US on the Japanese exports to the US and the …

Was Japan’S Real Interest Rate Really Too High During The 1990s? The Role Of The Zero Interest Rate Bound And Other Factors, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Japan’s more than a decade long “Great Recession” has presented a disconcerting case of what could happen if interest rates are bounded by zero and deflation sets in. Since Krugman (1998), the commonplace observation is that the deflationary situation combined with the zero nominal interest rate has caused elevated real interest rates, thereby nullifying monetary policy. This paper investigates this oft -cited claim and examines whether it is associated with anomalies in the way real interest rates are determined by employing an error correction model (ECM) based on the time-varying parameter model with Markov-switching variances. Using this model it is …

Ceo Turnover And Foreign Market Participation, Bruce A. Blonigen, Rossitza B. Wooster

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Anecdotal evidence suggests that new CEOs with foreign backgrounds direct their firms to become more international in their operations. We examine this hypothesis formally using data on U.S. S&P-500 manufacturing firms from1992 through 1997 and biographical information on CEOs’ birth and education locations that allow us to identify changes from U.S.- to foreign-connected CEOs. Robust to a variety of specifications, we find that a U.S. firm’s switch from a U.S. to a foreign CEO leads to substantial increases in the firm’s proportion of its foreign assets and foreign affiliate sales. In fact, our preferred specification indicates that foreign asset and …

Comparative Standards For Intensive Livestock Operations In Canada, Mexico, And The United States, Jerry Speir, Marie-Ann Bowden, David E. Ervin, Jim Mcelfish, Rosario P. Espejo, Tim Whitehouse, Chantal L. Carpentier

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Livestock farming has been transformed in the past twenty years from a business dominated by relatively small producers to one dominated by large facilities raising thousands of animals. A side effect of this development has been a new set of environmental concerns unique to this industry. While regulation of livestock agriculture has historically been a state/provincial and local matter, governments from the local to the federal level have found themselves grappling with the issues created by these new, concentrated facilities. This Report surveys the current environmental requirements for "intensive livestock operations" (ILOs) in the United States, Mexico and Canada. The …

Evolution As Learning Yields Hyperbolic Discounting, James Woods

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Learning is modeled as an infection, which jumps from person to person. The rate of infection mimics individual discount rates and induces savings behavior on its own. It is shown that the apparent discount rate, the combination of the agents’ true discount rate and the infection rate, decreases over time and approaches the agents’ true discount rate. This decrease, known as hyperbolic discounting, is consistent with what is observed in psychology studies, while the limiting case, exponential discounting, is consistent with market level observations. This model closes the gap between individual and market level observations of discounting behavior without explicitly …

University-Industry Relationships: Framing The Issues For Academic Research In Agricultural Biotechnology, David E. Ervin, Terri Lomax, Steven T. Buccola, Kristen Kim, Elizabeth Minor, Hui Yang, Leland L. Glenna, Elizabeth Jaeger, Dina Biscotti, Walter J. Armbruster, Kate Clancy, William B. Lacy, Rick Welsh, Yin Xia

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

More must be done to understand how academic researchers involved in agricultural biotechnology are impacted by a growing number of relationships with industry partners, concluded a new report released today by the Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology (the Pew Initiative) and Portland State University. The report, University-Industry Relationships: Framing the Issues for Academic Research in Agricultural Biotechnology looks at the advantages and disadvantages to universities and academic scientists who engage in relationships with industry. It specifically outlines the need for information regarding influences on academic scientists' research agendas, the intellectual property rights and technology innovations involved in the relationships, …

Networking And Foreign Direct Investment Activity, Bruce A. Blonigen, Rossitza B. Wooster

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We conduct an empirical investigation into whether networking effects affect foreign direct investment (FDI) activity. Using bibliographical information on CEOs’ birth and education locations, we are able to identify changes from U.S. to foreign-connected CEOs that occurred in U.S. manufacturing firms of the S&P 500 from 1992 through 1997. Robust to a variety of specifications, we find that a U.S. firm’s switch from a U.S.- to a foreign-connected CEO leads to substantial increases in the firm’s proportion of its assets and sales that are in foreign markets. In fact, our preferred specification indicates that foreign asset and sales proportions increase …

Transgenic Crops And The Environment: Missing Markets And Public Roles, David E. Ervin, Sandra S. Batie

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

The rapidity of change has left scant opportunity for investigation of the consequences of adoption of transgenic crops on long-term ecosystem or economic system functioning. Economic theory suggests that, if the "Biotechnology Revolution" is left to market forces alone, there will be neglected public goods. Theory and limited empirical evidence suggests that there are significant incentives for private firms to discount and neglect certain environmental impacts and to develop products that meet mainly the needs of those able and willing to pay. Negative distributional impacts on rural societies and economies will not normally enter the private calculus nor will the …

Biotechnology And The Environment: Issues And Linkages, Sandra S. Batie, David E. Ervin

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

The rapidity of change has left scant opportunity for investigation of the consequences of biotechnology adoption on long-term ecosystem or economic system functioning. Economic theory suggests that, if the "Biotechnology Revolution" is left to market forces alone, there will be neglected public goods. Theory and limited empirical evidence suggests that there are significant incentives for private firms to discount and neglect negative environmental impacts and to develop products that meet only the needs of those able and willing to pay. Negative distributional impacts on rural societies and economies will not normally enter the private calculus nor will the long-term problems …