Economics Commons^™

Using System Dynamics To Contribute To Ecological Economics, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the system dynamics approach to the development of ecological economics, the study of the interactions between economic systems and ecological systems. We build and analyze an ecological economic model: an extension of a population–resource dynamics model developed by Brander and Taylor and published in American Economic Review in 1998. The focus of the present paper is on the model building and analysis to contribute to theory building rather than eliciting policy implications from the model. Hence, this is an example of model-based theory building using system dynamics. Our analysis sheds light on several problems …

System Dynamics Implementation Of A Model Of Population And Resource Dynamics With Adaptation, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

We build and analyze a dynamic ecological economic model that incorporates endogenous innovation on input substitutability. The use of the system dynamics method allows us to depart from conventional equilibrium thinking and conduct an out-of-equilibrium (adaptation) analysis. Simulation results show that while improvement in input substitutability will expand an economy, this change alone may not improve sustainability measured by indicators such as utility-per-capita and natural resource stock. It could, however, be possible that in combination with other technological progress, improvement in input substitutability will contribute to sustainable development. Sensitivity analysis also indicates a possible complication with the use of exogenous …

Beyond Race Cards In America's Pastime: An Appreciative Reply To Findlay And Santos, Robert Muñoz

Chicano/Latino Studies Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this reply, I salute the correction, replication, and extensions carried out by David Findlay and John Santos (2012) based on my jointly authored paper Hewitt, Muñoz, Oliver, and Regoli (2005). I expound briefly on why, even though we and they have found no statistically significant race-discrimination effect in baseball card prices, we should not be quick to diminish the role of racial thinking and racial preference—especially as the sample was restricted to Hall of Famers.

Simple Ecosystem Service Valuation Can Impact National Forest Management, David E. Ervin, Gary Larsen, Craig Shinn

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This essay is about how a relatively simple application of the ‘new scarcity’ paradigm for non-market ecosystem services (Simpson, Toman and Ayres 2005) changed the management plan for a national forest. We identify lessons from our experience for AERE members.

The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis In An Era Of Global Imbalances: Measurement And Testing, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We outline new metrics for measuring the trilemma aspects: exchange rate flexibility, monetary independence, and capital account openness, taking into account recent substantial international reserve accumulation. Since 2000, the trilemma variables in emerging markets have converged towards intermediate levels, characterizing by managed flexibility, using sizable international reserves as a buffer while retaining some degree of monetary autonomy. We test the linearity of the trilemma, and find that the weighted sum of the three trilemma variables adds up to a constant. Thus, a rise in one trilemma variable should be traded-off with a drop of the weighted sum of the other …

Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns And Output Volatility, Joshua Aizenman, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine the open macroeconomic policy choices of developing economies from the perspective of the economic “trilemma” hypothesis. We construct an index of divergence of the three trilemma policy choices, and evaluate its patterns in recent decades. We find that the three dimensions of the trilemma configurations are converging towards a “middle ground” among emerging market economies -- managed exchange rate flexibility underpinned by sizable holdings of international reserves, intermediate levels of monetary independence, and controlled financial integration. Emerging market economies with more converged policy choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with …

Complexity Theory And Political Change: Talcott Parsons Occupies Wall Street, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Complexity theory can assist our understanding of social systems and social phenomena. This paper illustrates this assertion by linking Talcott Parsons' model of societal structure to the Occupy Wall Street movement. Parsons' model is used to organize ideas about the underlying causes of the recession that currently afflicts the US. While being too abstract to depict the immediate factors that precipitated this crisis, the model is employed to articulate the argument that vulnerability to this type of event results from flaws in societal structure. This implies that such crises can be avoided only if, in Parsons' terms, structural change occurs …

The Implications Of Migration Theory For Distributive Justice, Alexander Sager

Philosophy Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper explores the implications of empirical theories of migration for normative accounts of migration and distributive justice. It examines neo-classical economics, world-systems theory, dual labor market theory, and feminist approaches to migration and contends that neo-classical economic theory in isolation provides an inadequate understanding of migration. Other theories provide a fuller account of how national and global economic, political, and social institutions cause and shape migration flows by actively affecting people's opportunity sets in source countries and by admitting people according to social categories such as class and gender. These empirical theories reveal the causal impact of institutions regulating …

Contribution Of The Film & Television Industry To The Economies Of Oregon And The Portland Metropolitan Area: An Economic Impact Analysis For The Oregon Governor’S Office Of Film And Television, Jeff Renfro, Jenny H. Liu

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Research report on the economic footprint of the TV and Film Industry in Oregon and the Portland Metro Area.

Application Of An Adaptive Step-Size Algorithm In Models Of Hyperinflation, Olena Kostyshyna

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

An adaptive step-size algorithm [Kushner and Yin, Stochastic Approximation and Recursive Algorithms and Applications, 2nd ed., New York: Springer-Verlag (2003)] is used to model time-varying learning, and its performance is illustrated in the environment of Marcet and Nicolini [American Economic Review 93 (2003), 1476–1498]. The resulting model gives qualitatively similar results to those of Marcet and Nicolini, and performs quantitatively somewhat better, based on the criterion of mean squared error. The model generates increasing gain during hyperinflations and decreasing gain after hyperinflations end, which matches findings in the data. An agent using this model behaves cautiously when faced …

Subreption And Institutional Inquiry: Theoretical Philosophy And Evolutionary Thinking, John B. Hall, Alexander Dunlap

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

With this inquiry we respond to William Dugger‘s assertion that ―[s]ubreption is one of the least studied social phenomena of the twentieth century.‖ Our research seeks to fill a gap in the literature by clarifying subreption, and its origins in Philosophy to its importance in social science, and, especially, Institutional Inquiry. We conjecture that Thorstein Veblen borrows form Immanuel Kant‘s understanding of Erschleichung. In this respect, Veblen‘s understanding and use of subreption serves as conduit between its use in Roman law, through Kant‘s understanding, and on to what Veblen later introduces as an approach creatively relied upon by three other, …

Veblen’S Predator And The Great Crisis, John B. Hall, Iciar Dominguez-Lacasa, Jutta Günther

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

With this inquiry we attribute cause for the current and “Great Crisis” to Veblen’s predator. After summarizing origins and manifestations of this crisis we juxtapose Veblen’s emphasis upon the predator to other potential causes for crisis and crises. Noted to have emerged when our stock of human knowledge provided for the creation of surplus, Veblen’s predator is presented as capable of metamorphosis and also driving evolution of our capitalistic system: whether this means emerging as the businessman in the “era of the machine,” or the investment banker promoting a financial metaphysics in the current “era of finance.”

A Systems Approach To Ecological Economic Models Developed Progressively In Three Interwoven Articles, Takuro Uehara

Dissertations and Theses

My dissertation develops and analyzes ecological economic models to study the complex dynamics of an ecological economic system (EES) and investigate various conditions and measures which can sustain a developing economy over the long term in view of resilience and sustainability. Because of the intrinsic complexity of the system, I take a systems approach, using economics as the foundation for the basic structure of an ecological economic model, and system dynamics as the method to build and analyze such a complex ecological economic model. Throughout my dissertation, the model developed by Brander and Taylor (1998) is adopted as a baseline …

A Strategic Model For Ingo Accountability Systems, Sarah Elizabeth Wardwell

Dissertations and Theses

This thesis reconstructs the concept of International Non-Governmental Organization (INGO) accountability to beneficiaries through the development of a strategic model for INGO accountability to beneficiaries. It works through the history and arguments surrounding the rise of the debate around whether INGOs should be held accountable to their beneficiary populations. Unique definitions are developed for the terms and concepts related to this topic and a framework for understanding the strategic model for INGO accountability to beneficiaries is outlined: Accountable to whom? Accountable for what? Accountable how? A practical example of an internal assessment for measuring an INGO's accountability to beneficiaries is …

The Impact Of Public Credit Programs On Brazilian Firms, Joao Alberto Denegri, Alessandro Maffioli, Cesar M. Rodriguez

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of public credit lines in promoting the performances of Brazilian firms. We focus on the impact of the credit lines managed by BNDES and FINEP in fostering growth measured in terms of employment, labor productivity and export. For this purpose, we use a unique panel data set developed by the Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), which includes information on both firm-level performances and access to public credit lines. This particular data setting allows us to use quasi-experimental techniques to control for selection bias when estimating the impact of the public credit lines. The core …

European Welfare Regimes: Political Orientations Versus Poverty, Kosta Josifidis, John B. Hall Professor, Novica Supic, Olgica Ivancev

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This inquiry analyzes how political orientations shape welfare states and labour market institutions when seeking to reduce poverty. In order to identify effects of these two key variables, we conduct a panel regression analysis that includes two poverty measures: poverty rates before and after social spending. This inquiry considers 14 EU countries, and in the period from 1995 to 2008, which are grouped according to welfare state regimes. We consider Social Democratic, Corporatist, Mediterranean and Liberal welfare state regimes. Panel regression results indicate that political orientation engenders no significant statistically measurable effects on poverty rates before social spending. Effects register, …

A Forensic Analysis Of Global Imbalances, Menzie David Chinn, Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine whether the behavior of current account balances changed in the years preceding the global crisis of 2008-09, and assess the prospects for global imbalances in the post-crisis period. Changes in the budget balance are an important factor affecting current account balances for deficit countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. The effect of the “saving glut variables” on current account balances has been relatively stable for emerging market countries, suggesting that those factors cannot explain the bulk of their recent current account movements. We also find the 2006-08 period to constitute a structural break for emerging market …

Valuing Ecological Systems And Services, Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski, David E. Ervin, Randall Bluffstone, Darrell Brown, Heejun Chang, Veronica Dujon, Elise F. Granek, Stephen Polasky, Vivek Shandas, J. Alan Yeakley, James Boyd

Institute for Sustainable Solutions Publications and Presentations

Making trade-offs between ecological services and other contributors to human well-being is a difficult but critical process that requires valuation. This allows both better recognition of the ecological, social, and economic trade-offs and also allows us to bill those who use up or destroy ecological services and reward those that produce or enhance them. It also aids improved ecosystems policy. In this paper we clarify some of the controversies in defining the contributions to human well-being from functioning ecosystems, many of which people are not even aware of.We go on to describe the applicability of the various valuation methods that …

Assessment Of The Socio-Economic Impacts Of Sb 1080 On Immigrant Groups, Mary C. King, John G. Corbett, John Chiappetta, Anabel López Salinas

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

In July 2008, the State of Oregon implemented SB 1080, legislation that required all applicants for an Oregon Driver License or ID card to present proof of legal presence in the United States. In 2007, some 140,000 unauthorized immigrants were estimated to be living in Oregon, more than two-thirds of whom were estimated to be members of the labor force. Approximately 97% of Oregon’s unauthorized immigrants are thought to be Latino, nearly all of Mexican origin. This report includes a discussion of the social science findings on the situation of undocumented workers in the U.S and what is known about …

Regional Trade Agreements And The Pattern Of Trade: A Networks Approach, Rossitza Wooster, Javier A. Reyes, Stuart Shirell

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

This paper uses a complex network approach for the analysis of bilateral trade data between countries over the period 1970-2000. We compute the network community structure for every year between 1970 and 2000 and compare it to null community structures that emerge from various models based on regional and geographic classifications, the implementation of RTA's and/or on gravity models of trade. Our results show that RTA formation appears to have a cyclical pattern on the world trade network community structure. We document periods where bilateral trade flows and the structure of the world trade network are consistent with those predicted …

Systems Views Of The Economics Of Sustainable Development, Joshua Hughes

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

The mainstream economics of the 20th century (and now 21st century) has often failed to predict what will happen--or explain what has happened--in the real world, even with (or because of?) an ever-increasing reliance on quantitative and computational methods. Since the mid-20th century a number of people part of, or closely associated with, the systems community--economists among them--have provided insights about what is wrong with "traditional" economics. Systems science offers a number of alternative methods for understanding economic systems that take heed of these criticisms, especially in the context of sustainable development. Yet, while promising, few of these alternatives …

System Dynamics Implementation Of An Extended Brander And Taylor-Like Easter Island Model, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

We provide a system dynamics implementation of a dynamic ecological economics model. Dynamic economic models are often constrained to use functions, such as the Cobb-Douglas function, chosen “conveniently” to allow for analytic solutions. The C-D function, however, suffers from its fixed elasticity that does not allow for the substitutability between man-made capital and natural capital to change, which is vital for economic sustainability. Using system dynamics removes this constraint and enables more realistic ecological economics models containing functions not amenable to analytic solution. The base model is the natural resource and population growth model developed by Brander and Taylor (1998) …

Innovation, Markets, And Evolution, Mitch Green

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper approaches innovation from an evolutionary perspective. Literature spanning a broad range of traditions in economics is considered, to include Institutionalist, Schumpeterian, post-Keynesian, and growth theorists. Key systemic changes are examined in the context of prevailing technological and social institutions. It is argued that expectation-fixing effects such as path-dependence in investment and innovation provide structure to a social network of market institutions that seek to validate money contracts. The institution of money is considered as a center of power in the system and affects the course of innovation. Money as the unit of account becomes the object of …

Thirlwall's Law And Krugman's 45-Degree Rule: Mathematically Identical, Mutually Exclusive, Karl Garbacik

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Thirlwall's Law and the 45-degree rule, originally formulated by Krugman, are radically different interpretations of the same statistical regularity. This statistical regularity is that a country's long-run growth rate will approximate to the ratio of that country's export growth to its import elasticity of demand. Thirlwall's Law falls under a Post-Keynesian framework which is primarily a demand-side model. The 45-degree rule relies on a supply-side interpretation, a result of its neoclassical origins. This thesis seeks to answer two questions. The first is, are the members of the Post-Keynesian and neoclassical communities working on each of these theories aware of the …

Financial Illiteracy: Prevalence, Consequences, And Solutions, Gerald Matasy

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

As Americans have become increasingly responsible for their own financial security their ability to make financial decisions in their best interests has certainly grown in importance. The focus of this paper is to determine what role financial literacy plays in making optimal financial decisions and maintaining economic stability. Using mostly research from other studies and some original research, this paper seeks to examine the level of financial literacy among the general population and what the implications are for the general lack of literacy. What I find is that individuals who have lower levels of financial literacy generally make poorer financial …

The Financial Crisis, Rethinking Of The Global Financial Architecture, And The Trilemma, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the output performance of the economies under severe crisis situations. Thirdly, we look into how trilemma configurations have evolved in the aftermath of economic crises in the past. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, …

Where The Ends Don’T Meet: Measuring Poverty And Self-Sufficiency Among Oregon’S Families, Melissa Rowe, Sheila A. Martin, Danan Gu, Webb Sprague

Institute of Metropolitan Studies Publications

This report uses the Self-Sufficiency Standard developed by Dr. Diana Pearce at the University of Washington to analyze the extent to which Oregon households earn enough money to meet their basic needs without a public subsidy. This standard, a vast improvement on the federal poverty level, accounts for differences in the cost of living based on family structure, age of children, and county of residence. Dr. Pearce has defined the income required to meet basic needs for every county in Oregon and a number of household types. A large number of Oregon households not considered poor by the federal poverty …

Va Healthcare Costs Of A Collaborative Intervention For Chronic Pain In Primary Care, Kathryn C. Dickinson, Rajiv Sharma, Jonathan P. Duckart, Kathryn Corson, Martha S. Gerrity, Steven K. Dobscha

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Chronic pain is costly to individuals and the healthcare system, and is often undertreated. Collaborative care models show promise for improving treatment of patients with chronic pain. The objectives of this article are to report the incremental benefit and incremental health services costs of a collaborative intervention for chronic pain from a veterans affairs (VA) healthcare perspective.

Methods: Data on VA treatment costs incurred by participants were obtained from the VA's Decision Support System for all utilization except certain intervention activities which were tracked in a separate database. Outcome data were from a cluster-randomized trial of a …

Optimum Land Allocation For Species Protection And Military Training On Dod Installations, Sahan T.M. Dissanayake, Hayri Önal, James D. Westervelt, Harold E. Balbach

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Poster

Working Paper No. 62, Uses Of Abduction In Economic Science, Daniel Urban

Working Papers in Economics

This inquiry considers the meaning of abduction and its uses in Economic Science. Abductive logic is discussed at some length, in order to clarify how it is used in this inquiry. In addition, abduction is traced from its appearances in the writings of pragmatist philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce and how its meaning is later carried on in Thorstein Veblen’s Institutional Economics. Peirce’s influence proves foundational for Veblen’s contributions, as well as for the writings of John Roger Commons. My research suggests that after Commons, Peirce’s influence in economics wanes. Additionally, the use of retroduction in critical realism provides a contemporary …