Economics Commons^™

The State Of The Region: Hampton Roads 2025, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University, Vinod Agarwal, Josh Andrews, Andrea Barcenas, Leora Friedman, James V. Koch, Feng Lian, Anna Makhorkina, Melody Nguyen, Terry Parker, Mohamed Rahoui, Kara Sullivan, Jay Walker, Liam Ward, Robert Mcnab

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

This is Old Dominion University’s 26th annual State of the Region: Hampton Roads report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its president, Brian Hemphill, Ph.D., the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

This year’s report provides an opportunity to reflect on the region’s economic performance since the COVID-19 pandemic and ask how changes in federal trade, immigration, civilian employment, and …

Part 1: Change Is The Only Constant: The Economy Of Hampton Roads, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

We discuss how the region’s economy performed in 2024 and provide an assessment of the prospects for growth in 2025 and beyond. Rapid and significant changes in trade, immigration, tax, and expenditure policies will impact the economy of the region, state, and the nation in the coming years in unforeseen ways. We can, however, leverage historical data and experience to make informed judgements about the state of the regional economy and how it may fare over the coming year.

Part 4: The Economic Impact Of Norfolk International Airport, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Airports such as Norfolk International Airport (ORF) serve as economic engines connecting cities and regions to other localities and generate economic activity that would not otherwise occur in their absence. ORF set a record for commercial service passengers in 2019 before witnessing a dramatic fall in traffic in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Arrivals and departures quickly recovered, and ORF set a new passenger traffic record in 2024. This chapter explores the economic impact of ORF on the economy of Virginia.

Part 5: Silver Tsunami For The Third Sector, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

Affordable housing is only one of several societal stressors predicted to have nationwide impacts in conjunction with what has been dubbed the “Silver Tsunami,” a significant demographic shift occurring in the United States. According to Pew Research, every day, 10,000 members of the baby boomer generation—born between 1946 and 1964—reach retirement age. The implications of this demographic shift will impact every facet of life in Hampton Roads. This chapter explores how an aging population impacts nonprofits in Hampton Roads.

Part 6: Reflections On The State Of The Region Report, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University, James V. Koch

State of the Region Reports: Hampton Roads

In this chapter, Dr. James V. Koch, founding Director of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, reflects on the first 25 years of the State of the Region: Hampton Roads report. Dr. Koch provides insights on where the report has impacted the region. He also asks what the future may hold for the report.

A Different Risk-Return Relationship, Aydin Selim Oksoy, Matthew R. Farrell, Shaomin Li

Management Faculty Publications

We challenge the widely accepted premise that the valuation of an early-stage firm is simply the capital invested (USD) divided by the equity received (%). Instead, we argue that this calculation determines the break-even point for the investor; for example, investing USD 1.0 in exchange for a 10% equity sets a firm-level free cash flow target of USD 10.0, resulting in a 0% return for the investor. The design of our study is that of a descriptive analysis of the phenomenon, based on three assumptions: that angel investing is a two-issue negotiation, that negotiation positions are communicated sequentially from capital …

2025 State Of The Commonwealth Report, Vinod Agarwal, Josh Andrews, Andrea Barcenas, Jamie Boex, Leora Friedman, James V. Koch, Angela Kwao, Feng Lian, Anna Makhorkina, Melody Nguyen, Terry Parker, Mohamed Rahoui, Ashley Russ, Samia Tabassum, Jay Walker, Robert M. Mcnab

State of the Commonwealth Reports

This is Old Dominion University’s 11th annual State of the Commonwealth Report. While it represents the work of many people connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion, its president, Brian Hemphill, Ph.D., the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy.

Our work seeks to contribute to the conversation about how Virginia can foster growth across the Commonwealth without glossing over the challenges we face. We want to encourage difficult conversations to …

Part 2: The State Of Virginia's Go Virginia Regions, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

In this chapter, we discuss the economic performance of the nine GO Virginia regions relative to the state and nation. We examine a number of measures of economic performance: population, employment, jobs, wages, personal income, and establishments. Each of these measures is available on a more frequent basis than Gross Domestic Product (GDP), providing a more current picture of the economic activity in each GO Virginia region. In aggregate, these data allow us to construct a clearer picture of the health of Virginia’s regional economies.

Part 4: Is It Better To Give Than Receive? Exploring The Distributional Dimension Of Virginia's Budget, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

This chapter focuses on the distribution of intergovernmental finances in Virginia. Specifically, it analyzes the distribution of state-level public resources in the Commonwealth of Virginia that takes place as a result of state-to-local intergovernmental transfers. The analysis suggests that, as a result of the manner in which state revenues are collected and allocated back to localities, some Virginians contribute significantly more to the Commonwealth budget in taxes than they receive back in local benefits, while other state residents receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes.

Institutionalisation And Institutional Evolution: A Model Of Selecting Government Officials In Ancient China, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

The evolution of institutions in selecting government officials in ancient China reflected efficiency considerations and increased power concentration in the hands of the ruler. Selecting government officials in ancient China became more rule‐based over time, and standardisation and centralisation were some key features of this process. In this dynamic model, a higher volume of transactions, shown as the number of candidates needed to be evaluated, leads to institutionalisation, which has a higher fixed cost but a lower marginal cost in processing each transaction. In the steady state, a ruler with a more encompassing interest chooses a higher level of institutionalisation. …

Impact Of Geography On Institutions In Agricultural And Nomadic Societies, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

How geography affects the choice of institutions is studied in a theoretical model. In this model, nations are located around a circle. Rulers compete through choosing tax rates, the level of military spending, and the degree of formality of institutions. Geographic condition is captured by population density. It is shown that societies with higher population densities choose lower tax rates, establish more formal institutions, and give government officials lower levels of autonomies than those with lower population densities do. A higher level of external threats induces a ruler to choose a higher level of autonomy for officials. The model is …

High-Resolution Modeling Of Extreme Heat Events With Socioeconomic Consideration: A Real-Case Wrf-Les Approach, Maryam Golbazi, Frank Liu, Yin-Hsuen Chen, Timothy W. Juliano, Heather Richter

ODU Articles

The overarching goals of this work is to explore best practices for micro-scale modeling of a real case, identify relevant phenomena by using high-resolution modeling, and to explore their implications for public health, and climate resilience strategies in Hampton Roads, VA, USA. This project employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct a comprehensive study of Hampton Roads, utilizing a coupled mesoscale to microscale modeling capable of resolving boundary layer turbulence. This study has three primary objectives: (1) to establish the optimal mesoscale to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) configurations for complex geographical regions such as the Hampton Roads (HR) …

Evaluating The Early Impact Of Ab 617: Air Pollution, Health Disparities, And Environmental Justice In California, Cherry Cheuk Lam Cheung, Adam Eckerd

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

This study evaluates the initial effectiveness of California’s Assembly Bill 617 (AB 617), enacted to address air pollution impacts in communities designated as environmental justice priorities, a policy approach that has recently been touted as a successful start. These claims of initial success stand in contrast to much of the research on remediation of environmental justice, particularly with respect to air pollution. Despite well-documented disparities in air pollution exposure and its health impacts among racial-ethnic minorities, previous policy efforts to mitigate these effects have had, at best, marginal effects. AB 617 mandates local air districts and the California Air Resources …

Service Guarantee Decision Of Online Service Providers And Market Implications, Aijun Lu, Fuzan Chen, Harris Wu

Information Technology & Decision Sciences Faculty Publications

Online services face quality uncertainties. To address user concerns, Online Service Providers (OSPs) sometimes provide service guarantees, compensating users if quality falls below a predefined threshold. This paper analyzes how OSPs use service guarantees to navigate market competition and enhance revenue through game theory and queuing theory models. Key findings include the following: offering guarantees enable OSPs to increase prices; in monopolistic markets, guarantees are offered only if the service guarantee strength is sufficient, whereas in competitive markets, decisions depend on relative strengths and competitor actions. Surprisingly, slower response times under service guarantees can boost profits, especially when resource costs …

Factors Affecting The Quality Of Life Of Residents In The United States: Lessons From Virginia, Daniel K. Pryce

Sociology & Criminal Justice Faculty Publications

Evaluating community members' views about their quality of life is important for improving quality of well-being in society, as most societies are interested in the collective well-being of the people. Moreover, quality-of-life research helps public officials to understand how well they are meeting the needs of the electorate. Using the theoretical framework of Maslow's Developmental Perspective, which argues that the higher the need satisfaction of the majority in a given society the greater the quality of life of that society, I explore the effects of multiple variables on quality of life in the Hampton Roads region of Southeast Virginia (this …

Unconventional Philosophies And Practices: Vietnamese Family Firm Performance In Multiple Countries, Amon Simba, Mai Thi Thanh Thai, Aymen Ammari, James V. Koch, Paul Jones

Economics Faculty Publications

The diversity of business philosophies and practices across family firms suggests their performance is influenced by factors that can be hard to isolate or understand. Based on 215 observations of Vietnamese firms operating in Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America, we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis techniques to discern the configurational relationships underlying their performance pathways. Of the 64 possible configurations, three pathways with a high consistency (95 percent) for high performance are distinguishable. These three pathways are characterized by varying degrees of family labor involvement, social network-based labor sourcing, and capital contributions from partners. They reveal how cultural factors, …

Ethnic Politics And Fiscal Dominance: Implications For Currency Union Formation In Sub-Saharan Africa, Benjamin D. Keen, Christine O. Strong

Economics Faculty Publications

Numerous currency unions have been proposed in Africa over the past 50 years, but none have succeeded. This paper asserts ethnic favouritism is a crucial yet often overlooked feature that strongly influences an African government’s willingness to join a currency union. We use a Barro and Gordon (1983) style model that incorporates fiscal dominance, political business cycles and ethnic favouritism to assess the benefits and costs to African households and governments of joining a currency union. Our results show that ethnic alignment between the head of state and central bank governor amplifies fiscal dominance, which reduces an African government’s desire …

The Role Of Economic Sanctions In Shaping International Trade Relationships Case Study: Russia, Chick Edmond

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Economic sanctions play an influential role in international relations by shaping the behavior of states. To address security threats and uphold international norms, countries seek to punish those responsible in violating these principles through the use of economic sanctions. The paper examines the impact of economic sanctions on trade relationships and its consequences on the Russian Economy. It also seeks to analyze the evolution of trade embargo during the post-cold war era to a more resilient and sophisticated measures in the age of globalization. Through this historical perspective, this analysis examines an important case study such as Russia by evaluating …

A Modern Optimization Approach With Data-Driven Analytical Modeling For The Healthcare Business Segment (Hbs) From The S&P 500, Aditya Chakraborty, Chris Tsokos

Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Introduction: The S&P consists of eleven business segments, which are classified according to the type of industry. The current study focuses on developing a non-linear analytical model for the Healthcare Business Segment (HBS) of the S&P 500, as a function of different economic & financial indicators. Materials and Methods: The analytical model used six financial indicators together with four economic indicators to predict the weekly average closing price (WCP) of HBS stocks. Johnson’s SB transformation corrected skewness, while desirability-based optimization identified indicator values maximizing WCP. The model’s performance and generalizability were validated through repeated 10-fold cross-validation. Results: All attributable contributors …

Disparities In Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes And Economic Burdens Among Minorities In Southeastern Virginia, Ismail El Moudden, Asra Amidi, Reem Sharaf Alddin, Michael Bittner, Qi Zhang

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology Faculty Publications

Background

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in the United States, presenting significant public health challenges and financial burdens, particularly in Southeastern Virginia, where African American and Hispanic (AA&H) populations are disproportionately affected.

Methods

This retrospective observational study analyzed data from 30,855 hospital discharges of AA&H patients across Southeastern Virginia from 2016 to 2020, focusing on individuals aged 18 to 85 with cardiovascular diseases. Utilizing the Virginia Health Information database, we examined demographic information, clinical data, and healthcare utilization patterns through hypothesis tests and regression models to explore associations between these variables and the economic impacts of cardiovascular …

Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation For Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Michael Pokojovy, Andrews T. Anum, Ebenezer Nkum

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftentimes estimated using the multivariate least squares (MLS) method, which can be susceptible to outliers. To account for potential model violations, a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation (MTLE) approach is utilized to derive a system of nonlinear estimating equations, and an iterative procedure is developed to solve the latter. In addition to robustness, our new technique allows for reliable recovery of the long-term mean, unlike existing methodologies. A set of …

Are Csr Incidents Truly Bad News?, Chen Chen, John A. Doukas, Rongyao Gloria Zhang

Finance Faculty Publications

We revisit whether disclosures of negative Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) incidents adversely affect firms' stock prices. While univariate tests reveal significant negative abnormal returns around incident announcements, the effect disappears once firm characteristics, industry, and time‐fixed effects are controlled for. We find no robust evidence that CSR incidents or firms' Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) commitments influence stock price reactions on the event day or across broader windows. These results suggest that previously documented negative market responses may be attributable to endogeneity. Our baseline results are consistent with informed trading behavior: short‐sellers do not increase activity in incident‐related stocks relative …

The Impact Of Short-Term Rental Activity On House Prices: Evidence From Coastal Virginia, Navid Safari, Lei Zhang, Timothy M. Komarek

Finance Faculty Publications

Short-term rentals such as Airbnb have grown substantially in recent years. In this study, we investigated the effect of Airbnb rentals on neighboring house prices in Hampton Roads, Virginia. We focus on three different measures of Airbnb activity to obtain more robust results. Our measures include active Airbnb listings, active listings with at least one reservation, and the sum of reservations over three different periods. Consistent with previous literature, our main results show that prior Airbnb rental activity has a positive impact on the surrounding housing sales prices. Furthermore, the localized impact diminishes over geographic space (i.e., distances greater than …

Labor Heterogeneity, Labor Adjustment Costs, And Externally Financed Firm Growth, Enxi An, Kenneth Yung

Finance Faculty Publications

Highlights

• Because skilled workers entail higher hiring and firing expenses, firms tend to retain skilled workers in the face of the high labor adjustment costs (LACs).

• The retention of skilled workers imposes inflexibility on business operations and exposes firms to cash flow shocks.

• Firms with high LACs hoard precautionary cash in the face of higher cash flow risk.

• We find a positive relationship between LACs and externally financed firm growth.

• Equity is the major source of external funds for firm growth in the face of high LACs.

• The retention of skilled workers elevates conflicts …

Does The Acquirer's Complexity Affect The Market Reaction To M&A Decisions?, Rajib Chowdhury, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine whether and how acquiring firms' complexity affects investor perception at the announcement of M&A decisions. Using well-established data of firm complexity developed through combining machine learning and a lexicon of words, we find a significant positive relationship between acquiring firm complexity and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), indicating that more intricate firms are viewed as more valuable or competent in mergers and acquisitions. This association is stronger for acquirers with high operating risk, organizational capital, R&D intensity, large and independent boards, and larger targets. We also present evidence that high-complexity bidders offer higher takeover premiums. Our study contributes to …

Forging Monetary Hawks: Early-Life Inflation Experiences And Government Debt In Africa, Christine Strong

Economics Faculty Publications

This study uses a novel dataset to examine the impact of early‐life inflation experiences on government debt across 30 African nations from 1980 to 2022. We propose that central bankers who encountered inflation crises during their formative years are more likely to develop preferences for hawkish monetary policies. However, for these preferences to influence fiscal outcomes, central bankers must operate within an environment of institutional independence. Indeed, our analysis reveals that past exposures to inflation crises, on their own, have no statistically significant impact on government debt. However, when central bank independence is accounted for, a significant negative relationship emerges, …

What Role Do Finance Ministers Play In Political Business Cycles? Evidence-Based On A New African Dataset, Christine Olivia Strong

Economics Faculty Publications

This study investigates how the personal characteristics of finance ministers influence political budget cycles in Africa. Using a new dataset covering 300 finance ministers across 23 countries from 1980 to 2020, we find that political budget cycles primarily take the form of increased government consumption during election years. Ministers with prior central banking experience are less likely to amplify spending in election years, effectively curbing political budget cycles. These results remain consistent after accounting for institutional quality, ministerial tenure, and other confounding factors. The findings contribute to the literature by showing that the appointment of finance ministers in African countries …

Athletic Trainers' Perspectives On Resources And Preparation Needed For Successful Salary Negotiation, Kimberly R. Detwiler, Cailee E. Welch Bacon, Indigo B. White, Leanne E. Jones, Julie M. Cavallario

Rehabilitation Sciences Faculty Publications

Context

Many athletic trainers (ATs) work under high stress, long hours, and low pay. These conditions often lead ATs and athletic training students to leave the profession. Previous studies show that over half of ATs do not negotiate salary, often because they feel the offer is fair or fear losing the job. Additional support is needed to help ATs prepare for negotiations, as current resources are limited.

Objective

This study explored ATs’ views on the resources need to prepare for salary negotiations during the hiring process.

Design

Consensual qualitative research.

Setting

Individual video interviews.

Patients or Other Participants

Twenty-eight participants …

Do Public School Choice Policies Segregate Schools? Dynamic Effects In Michigan, Danielle Sanderson Edwards, Kaitlin P. Anderson

Educational Leadership & Workforce Development Faculty Publications

Interdistrict choice has the potential to exacerbate or alleviate between-district segregation-an increasingly pervasive form of U.S. school segregation-by allowing students to attend schools in districts where they do not reside. Prior research concentrates on the effects of charter schooling on segregation within districts and counties. We used longitudinal enrollment and demographic data from Michigan to examine the impacts of both interdistrict and charter school choice on racial and economic segregation within and between districts in a single setting. We estimated these effects by leveraging between-grade differences in choice use within school systems and years. We confirmed findings from previous research …

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A Natural Disaster On The Workforce Resiliency: An Analysis Of The Virginia Beach - Chesapeake - Norfolk Metropolitan Statistical Area, Robert M. Mcnab, Yin-Hsuen Chen, George Mcleod

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

In this paper, we explore the potential economic impacts associated with a major hurricane making landfall in Hampton Roads. We estimate the direct damages from a Florence-like Category 3 hurricane with a 3.6 feet tidal offset are estimated at $15.6 billion, equivalent to 10% of the 2022 regional GDP. If we apply existing flood insurance rates to these projected damages, we estimate that the total economic impact would exceed $12 billion with a short-term loss of more than 76,000 jobs. The job losses are concentrated in sectors that provide services to households which would bear the brunt of damages during …