Economics Commons^™

Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …

“Damning The Dams”: A Study Of Cost Benefit Analysis In Large Dams Through The Lens Of India's Sardar Sarovar Project, Evelyn Wong

Scripps Senior Theses

This thesis examines the evaluation of the economic, environmental and social effects of dams, and lessons learned from previous dams. It then focuses on cost benefit analysis as a decision-making tool pre-project for evaluating the potential gains and losses of building a dam; and as a framework for evaluating dams in operation. It reviews the basic assumptions required for a legitimate cost benefit analysis, and the inherent limitations of this method. It uses the Sardar Sarovar dam as a case study for the use and abuse of cost benefit analysis in decision-making, interstate politics, propaganda and activism. It also illustrates …

Water Governance In Bolivia: Policy Options For Pro-Poor Infrastructure Reform, Daniel M. Maxwell

CMC Senior Theses

As the case with most countries across Latin America, unprecedented migration to urban areas has strained city infrastructure systems. More particularly, the region faces a pressing crisis of water security, where rapid urbanization has outpaced water sector development. This thesis addresses the water infrastructure reform in El Alto and La Paz, Bolivia, focusing on strategies to better promote water access for the peri-urban poor. The research investigates the level of progressivity of water service expansion and pricing regimes: in other words, does the present model of water distribution positively improve the lives of the poorest groups? By investigating these social …

The Indian Premier League: What Are The Factors That Determine Player Value?, Damini Y. Marwaha

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines and tries to estimate the importance of various characteristics that go into attributing specific dollar values to cricketers. The auction process employed in the Indian Premier League enables one to associate players with specific monetary values and this paper uses various performance criteria to assess what the key variables are towards creating a highly valued cricket player. This paper finds that various batting statistics are of significance in addition to the age and nationality of players.

How Many Barack Obamas Does It Take: An Analysis Of The Effect Of Charter Schools On Real Estate And Crime, Aananditaa Kakkar

CMC Senior Theses

This study looks at the relationship between charter school presence and neighborhood quality in Los Angeles. Using data from the Los Angeles Department of Education, Zillow Real Estate, and the Los Angeles Sheriff, this paper attempts to find whether changes in charter presence influence the price of surrounding real estate or the occurrence of serious and petty crimes. The results find that charter schools tend to be associated with a decrease in home sale prices. The results on crime imply that crime increases upon the opening of charter schools, however they are statistically insignificant.

Explaining The “Explained”: An Examination Of The Gender-Based Education Gap In India And Its Impact On The Wage Gap, Kanupriya Rungta

CMC Senior Theses

Analysis of the National Sample Survey Data from 2011-2012 shows that a gender-based education gap exists. Women are more likely than men to be illiterate. Some parents continue to view household duties as more important than education in the case of girls, causing some to drop out in primary and middle school, which leads to lower experience accumulation. However, females are almost equally as likely as males to be enrolled in school, and an equal proportion of males and females earn higher education degrees. More importantly, the difference in resource allocation seems to be minimal. Although education has a strong, …

The Residential Real-Estate Industry In India: Investigating Evidence For An Asset Bubble, Nikhita Narendran

CMC Senior Theses

The objective of this thesis is to examine the differences in residential property prices across different cities in India. Soaring prices have led to increasingly unaffordable property prices in large metropolitan cities. As a result, there has been academic discourse about the existence of a housing bubble in recent years. In the past, empirical research has focused on national level trends due to a lack of city-level data. I investigate the city-fixed effects on growth in house prices across fifteen different cities. Although different empirical models suggest different conclusions about these effects, point estimates suggest above-normal growth in house prices …

The Declining Natural Fish Stock: A Proposed Solution To Public Fear And Perceptions Of Genetically Modified Fish, Morgan Beltz

CMC Senior Theses

The global fish population is declining. Aquaculture production is saturated and the global fish stock is operating at an unsustainable level. Genetically modified (GM) fish is a potential solution to relieve the natural fish stock, if the FDA grants the approval. The global fish population is harmed by environmental conditions and the inability for fish to adapt to changing conditions and human interactions. Genetic modification is a growing technology that has the ability to alleviate the fishing industry by modifying fish to grow faster, be disease tolerant, eat plant-based food, and be more nutritious. However, the approval process has been …

Unemployment Rates During The Not-So-Great Recovery: How Much Is Structural Versus Cyclical?, Nicole Appleton

CMC Senior Theses

This paper presents evidence that the majority of the high post-recession unemployment rates is the result of an increase in the natural rate, rather than cyclical deviations from it. Moreover, I discuss the likely causes of the recent increases in the natural rate. Since most of the theorized causes of increases appear transitory in nature, I expect that the natural rate will soon decline, followed closely by a decrease in actual unemployment rates.

State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …

An Examination Of The Interest Rate Sensitivity Of Business Development Company (Bdc) Stock Returns, Timothy Park

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the interest rate sensitivity of Business Development Companies (BDCs). The results of this study are intended to lend insight to investors about the viability and timing of investments in BDCs during the business cycle. Similar to previous research that has examined interest rate sensitivity of financial companies, this paper employs a two-factor market model to see whether BDCs are responsive to changes in short, medium, and long-term interest rates. My particular interest in BDCs is motivated by their unique asset-liability structure and requirements, as well as their high dividend payouts. Monthly data is drawn from the period …

Portfolio Company Selection Criteria: Accelerators Vs Venture Capitalists, Cody Chang

CMC Senior Theses

The explosive growth of ‘accelerators’ in the United States has given entrepreneurs and their startups the opportunity to pursue seed-stage financing. While the specific economic role of accelerators remains unclear, a study comparing the selection of portfolio companies between accelerators and venture capitalists was performed. A difference of means was performed on the responses per question between the collected 19 accelerators’ response and the 100 venture capitalists’ response, recorded from a prior study. It is found that venture capitalists place significantly more weight, than accelerators, on the potential of the startup’s product or service to be proprietary, to enter a …

The Price Discounts Of Chinese Cross-Listed Companies And Their Variation Across Sectors, Tom Guo

CMC Senior Theses

This study builds on the paper by Arquette, Brown, and Burdekin (2008) and asks whether the factors which they find to be significant in influencing the differential between the share prices of Chinese securities traded on their home market in Shanghai versus share prices observed offshore in Hong Kong and New York have varying degrees of influence when compared across industries. This paper focuses on Chinese companies listed on both the Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges and finds that the proxy variables of expected exchange rate change, relative market sentiment, and relative company sentiment are significant in determining the …

Conditional Cash Transfers And Child Health: The Case Of Malawi, Ryan F. Boone

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the impacts of the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme. The goal of this paper is to help improve the design of cash transfers. First of all, I analyze whether the cash transfer positively affects child health variables despite occurring in a region with poor supply side health institutions. I find significant results for many child level variables, such as frequency of illnesses, but insignificant improvements in anthropometric measurements. Secondly, I examine whether female-headed households invest more in child health than male-headed households. The results show that the impacts of the cash transfer did not depend on the …

An Empirical Analysis Of Differences In Environmental Transparency Across Firms, Sean Robert Smith

CMC Senior Theses

In recent years, many firms have voluntarily taken actions to gradually increase the transparency of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts. Using data on a sample of U.S. firms, this paper empirically examines the factors that encourage firms to choose different levels of CSR transparency. This adds to the previous literature that has focused only on the binary decision to engage or not to engage in CSR, as opposed to the extent and comprehensiveness of voluntary CSR reporting. Environmental transparency data are collected from the Roberts Environmental Center (REC) at Claremont McKenna College, while data for firm characteristics and toxic …

Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Impacts And Reform Strategies, Jennifer E. Good

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis uses cross-country panel regressions to identify the effects of fossil-fuel subsidies for both oil importers and oil exporters on GDP growth, industry growth, crowding out of government expenditures in education, health, and infrastructure, government debt, carbon dioxide emissions, inequality and poverty. Fossil-fuel subsidies are found to be associated with lower levels of growth and industry growth, less government expenditure on health and education, poorer infrastructure quality, more government debt, and higher rates of carbon dioxide emissions. No relationship is found between fossil fuel subsidies and poverty and inequality. These results confirm the arguments of those that argue that …

Choking Under Pressure On The Pga Tour, Madison Friedman

CMC Senior Theses

The productivity of individuals can be altered by cognitive environmental factors such as those that induce psychological pressure. The goal of this analysis is to determine the extent to which a selection of variables influences an individual’s perception of pressure and its subsequent effect on productivity. To do so, the performance of golfers under pressure on the PGA TOUR was proxied using the scrambling percentage statistic. Two regressions, one using data from players who were cut at the end of the second round and the other using data from players who were not cut at the end of the second …

India: Subsidy State Or Developmental State?, Annie Jalota

CMC Senior Theses

India does not fit easily into existing models of thought on the nature of a state and defies ease of understanding. Though India is most often considered to be a subsidy state, I show in this thesis the notion of the subsidy state does not capture the true nature of the Indian state. Chapter two of the paper looks at various models of understanding the nature of the Indian state and draw out three essential features: competing interest groups, how economic liberalization facilitates corruption and works against India’s aim of equalizing the capabilities and freedoms of all its citizens, and …

The Role Of Islamic Banking In Economic Growth, Katherine Johnson

CMC Senior Theses

Islamic banking is currently one of the fastest growing segments of the financial market industry, operating in over 75 countries through 300 institutions. While past literature has established the development of financial institutions as a determinant of economic growth, research on the correlation of the diffusion of Islamic banking with economic growth is limited. This study seeks to add to the literature by empirically analyzing the economic growth determinative power of Islamic banks. Confirming past research, Muslim prevalence in a population is found to be the most significant determinant of the diffusion of Islamic banks. Using this exogenous instrument in …

The Impact Of Participatory Notes On The Indian Rupee Exchange Rate, Rohan Kothari

CMC Senior Theses

Since 1992, India has grown as a global player in the finance world. In spite of its success, India has not been able to rid itself of potentially harmful practices. One such practice is the issuing of Participatory Notes (PN) to foreign investors, so that they can anonymously purchase securities or derivatives listed on the Indian Stock Exchanges. This instrument came into public view when it accounted for approximately 50% of all foreign portfolio assets in India. Since then, the laws regarding PNs have evolved to become a more transparent version of the old rules. Although PN levels are not …

The Consequences Of Mental Illness On Labor Market Decisions, Vanessa Lanuza

CMC Senior Theses

The existing literature finds negative associations between mental illness and labor market outcomes. Using data from the 2007 to 2011 National Health Interview Survey, this study examines the consequences of emotional (depression, anxiety, or other emotional problems) and psychological (ADD, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, or other mental problems) problems on four aspects of labor market decisions: the probability of participating in the labor force, the likelihood of working full time, the average number of hours worked per week and annual earnings. In addition to analyzing the effects of either having or not having a mental illness, I also test if there …

Policy Challenges In A Dual Exchange Rate Regime, Sven W. Arndt

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

It is known that the effectiveness of macro policies depends on the exchange-rate regime. Pertinent models have typically considered either fixed or floating rates rather than mixed regimes. In recent years, however, the dollar has floated against most currencies, while being fixed against the yuan. This paper argues that a flex-price, dual-rate model consisting of the U.S., China and the Eurozone, combined with distinct adjustment patterns in tradables and non-tradables sectors and a tendency for policy makers to treat inflation in housing as pure asset inflation, provides a plausible explanation of the great moderation and its aftermath.

A Story Of Four Revolutions: Mechanisms Of Change In India, Aseema Sinha

CMC Faculty Publications and Research

Sumit Ganguly and Rahul Mukherji’s India Since 1980 presents a bold and ambitious argument about change across and within India. Its unique contribution lies in its description of four distinct revolutions: social-political, economic, foreign policy, and religious. While many recent books have noted changes in India’s economy and foreign policy, India Since 1980 will be known for its juxtaposition of four different themes in one short, pithy volume. Even if one may disagree with the authors’ choice of the four dimensions of change, the book’s dominant message is that India is changing across a whole range of policies and arenas.

The Full Cost Of Renewables: Managing Wind Integration Costs In California, William Savage

Pomona Senior Theses

Wind power will be an important component of California's aggressive strategies to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets by the year 2020. However, the costs of integrating wind power's variable and uncertain output are often ignored. I argue that California must take prudent action to understand, minimize, and allocate wind integration costs. A review of numerous studies suggests that for wind penetration levels below 20%, integration costs should remain modest. However, costs are heavily dependent on market structure, and I suggest numerous ways that California can optimize its market design to manage wind integration costs.

Female Labor Force Participation In Argentina, 1980-2003: Gendered Trends And Responses To Crisis, Natalie Butterfield

Scripps Senior Theses

How do the experiences of women in the labor market differ from the experiences of men? Do economic crises affect their labor market decisions differently? Economists have investigated the responses of women to specific moments of crisis in Argentina – the country lends itself well to this analysis, as the last three decades of its history have seen both economic growth and financial collapse. With the crisis literature in mind, I investigate trends in female labor force participation rates in Argentina between 1980-2003, finding that while some evidence supports the “added worker effect” hypothesis, more research must be done to …

Arsenic Contamination In Groundwater In Vietnam: An Overview And Analysis Of The Historical, Cultural, Economic, And Political Parameters In The Success Of Various Mitigation Options, Thuy M. Ly

Pomona Senior Theses

Although arsenic is naturally present in the environment, 99% of human exposure to arsenic is through ingestion. Throughout history, arsenic is known as “the king of poisons”; it is mutagenic, carcinogenic, and teratogenic. Even in smaller concentrations, it accumulates in the body and takes decades before any physical symptoms of arsenic poisoning shows. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the safe concentration of arsenic in drinking water is 10 µg/L. However, this limit is often times ignored until it is decades too late and people begin showing symptoms of having been poisoned.

This is the current situation for Vietnam, …

The Impacts Of The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster On Electricity Consumption: An Examination Of Tepco's Daily Load Curve, Kristina B. Stanford

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the effects of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster on Tokyo Electric Power Company’s (TEPCO) electricity load using alternative event study methodology. The data set includes TEPCO’s published hourly loads from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2011. Four time series regressions are used to analyze the disaster’s effect on TEPCO’s load curve at an hourly and aggregate level. By examining the hourly impacts of the disaster, this paper provides commentary on the effects of the disaster on the daily load curve, finding transition periods to be the time of day that is most targeted for decreases in …

Slammer Time: A Cost-Effective Analysis Of The California State Prison System And Its Impact On Crime, Rebecca P. Manliguis

Scripps Senior Theses

At a time where cutbacks on spending are a huge focal point across all government levels, the prison system, and effectively combating crime, has been intensely focused upon. With the United States having the highest rate of incarceration of any country in the world, the significance of this focus is understandable. Its prison system is much larger compared to that of other nations, and therefore is a high priority for the United States. As stated in The Economist, “No other rich country is nearly as punitive as the Land of the Free.” With such high costs associated with the …

Willy Brandt’S Ostpolitik: The Changing Role In United States-West German Relations, An Analysis Of United States Government Internal Documents, Sara A. Popovich

Scripps Senior Theses

This thesis analyzes a crucial period in the relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and the United States of America, through the use of US government internal documents. Willy Brandt brought forth a new vision of Ostpolitik that was starkly different from policies that the US had dealt with before, subsequently leaving the Nixon Administration largely unsure of how to react. The change in FRG economic positioning vis-à-vis the United States, and catalyst political events in the 1960’s, created the impetus for Brandt’s vision of OStpolitik, which culminated in the interim West German control of the Western Alliance’s Eastern …

School Choice And Voucher Systems: A Comparison Of The Drivers Of Educational Achievement And Of Private School Choice, Courtney Sibert

Scripps Senior Theses

Despite promotion by well-known economists and supporting economic theory, econometric analyses of voucher systems often find that they have been unsuccessful in improving traditional measures of educational success. This paper examines a possible explanation of this phenomenon by comparing the drivers of educational achievement and of school popularity by examining private school choice. The findings of this paper indicate that there is a disconnect between school success and school popularity, which adversely effects both the demand and supply-side benefits of voucher systems. Additionally, this paper reviews matching mechanisms that seek to efficiently match students with schools based on both student …