Economics Commons^™

Air Pollution’S Effect On The Labor Force At The State Level, Benjamin Culberson

CMC Senior Theses

The health effects of air pollution are well established, ranging from increased rates of cancer to cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, a growing body of literature shows that air pollution has a tangible, negative impact on the labor force. However, in their efforts to avoid the endogeneity of air pollution and labor production, the current literature focuses on specific industries at a local level. The objective of this thesis is to expand this research to a state level by using naturally occurring weather events called air stagnations as a proxy for air pollution. These air stagnations correlate with increased levels of air …

The Streaming Wars: The Future Of Entertainment, Alexander D. Kenworthy

CMC Senior Theses

The Streaming Wars are the competition between Over-The-Top online streaming services such as Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, and HBO Max. This paper seeks to analyze the market through a literature review of factors which will influence in the market as well as an empirical analysis on the relationship between Netflix and the cable industry over time and how that relationship has changed. I find that Netflix’s revenue growth has had a negative impact on the cable industry’s revenue growth, but that relationship has diminished over time. I interpret this as a new market emerging for streaming services where multihoming will play …

Observing The Effects Of Antimalarial Drug Availability On Women’S Work Absenteeism, Rei Imada

CMC Senior Theses

This study aims to provide insight on how availability of antimalarial drugs can help alleviate the economic burden of malaria. Much of the existing literature that looks into the effects of antimalarial drug availability focuses on the associated health benefits, but fails to draw a link to the economic benefits that may also be incurred. Using data from the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey, this study performs a series of multiple regressions to observe how increased availability of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), a front-line antimalarial drug in most African countries, affects likelihood of work absenteeism …

Formal Savings Uptake As A Catalyst For Remittances In Sub-Saharan Africa, Jordan Kouassi

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the effects of savings account ownership on remittances and payment services in Sub-Saharan Africa through the lens of a field experiment executed in Central Malawi. Remittances are a major form of financial support for SSA and Sub-Saharan Africans. Through the use of a cross section analysis I find a positive significant relationship between account ownership and the likelihood to send and receive a remittance. Specifically, I find account ownership can increase the likelihood of sending a remittance by 8.75 times and increase the likelihood of receiving a remittance by 10.18 times.

Escaping The Snowstorm: Legal Rights And Economics In The Developing World, Zane Tolchinsky

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I seek to provide a framework for developing nations making policy-decisions about legal rights, as in the realm of Rawlsian ideal theory, prescriptions for governments not living in conditions of moderate scarcity is lacking. I first springboard off Stephen Holmes and Cass R. Sunstein’s conclusion that “all legal rights are positive,” from their book, The Cost of Rights, to argue for the value of considering the economic implications of rights protections. I then propose that Holmes and Sunstein’s conclusion means that we can think of legal rights as goods to be purchased by governments. Next, I …

Optimal Execution In Cryptocurrency Markets, Ethan Kurz

CMC Senior Theses

The purpose of this paper is to study the Almgren and Chriss model on the optimal execution of large block orders both on the NYSE and in cryptocurrency exchanges. Their model minimizes execution costs, which include linear temporary and permanent price impacts. We focus on how the stock market microstructure differs from a cryptocurrency exchange microstructure and what that means for how the model functions. Once the model and microstructures are explained, we examine how the Almgren-Chriss model functions with stocks from the NYSE, looking at specifically selling a large number of shares. We then investigate how a large "wholesale" …

The Impact Of Production Budgets On Theatrical Vs. Non-Theatrical Revenues In The Movie Industry, Naveen Shastri

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis discusses the impact of movie production budgets on various revenue ratios. An OLS regression equation was created that compares the production budget of a movie to one of three movie revenue ratios. These ratios can be attributed to the relative elasticities of each revenue metric (domestic DVD sales, domestic box office revenues, and foreign box office revenues). Among other results, it seems that the elasticity for domestic DVD sales was relatively greater than the one representing domestic box office revenues. Also, foreign box office elasticities were relatively larger than either domestic revenue variable. These results imply different trends …

The Road To Human Emancipation - The Moral And Political Foundations Of Markets, William Shi

CMC Senior Theses

The thesis aims to provide both a real public ideology and the legal and socioeconomic structures to realize Karl Marx’s ideal of human emancipation. Marx argues that in capitalist society, the legal and political superstructure forces the ruling class to represent its interest as the public interest, which legitimizes the massive inequality in resources and social power. To demonstrate how to realize the substantive public interest, the two parts of the thesis have two goals. The first part aims to formulate a rightful candidate to the public ideology of human emancipation, which represents the substantive public interest rather than the …

Healthy And Unhealthy Responses To American Democratic Institutional Failure, Thomas D'Anieri

CMC Senior Theses

I have set out on the hunch that politics in America “feels different,” that we are frustrated both with our institutions as well as with one another. First, I will seek to empirically verify this claim beyond mere “feelings.” If it can be shown that these kinds of discontent genuinely exist to the extent that I believe they do, I will then explain why people feel this way and why things are different this time from the economic, political, and social points of view. Next, I will examine two potential responses, what I will call the populist and the institutional …

K-Means Stock Clustering Analysis Based On Historical Price Movements And Financial Ratios, Shu Bin

CMC Senior Theses

The 2015 article Creating Diversified Portfolios Using Cluster Analysis proposes an algorithm that uses the Sharpe ratio and results from K-means clustering conducted on companies' historical financial ratios to generate stock market portfolios. This project seeks to evaluate the performance of the portfolio-building algorithm during the beginning period of the COVID-19 recession. S&P 500 companies' historical stock price movement and their historical return on assets and asset turnover ratios are used as dissimilarity metrics for K-means clustering. After clustering, stock with the highest Sharpe ratio from each cluster is picked to become a part of the portfolio. The economic and …

Policies And Politics Of Reform : The Governmentality Of Structural Adjustment In Urban And Rural Egypt, Gabriel Gluskin-Braun

CMC Senior Theses

This analysis explores the unique and tumultuous approach to reform in Egypt and addresses

the effects of the implementation of neoliberal policy tools. These tools included privatization, price

liberalization, deregulation, and land reform in both urban and rural areas. Based on these effects, this

analysis will argue that the benefits accrued by the political-economic elite created opportunities for

new patronage networks that upheld elite economic privilege through the process of liberalization

while a wide swath of Egyptians suffered the loss of limited privileges and protections from the state

established by Nasr and upheld by his successors. Consequently, the socialist-statist ‘social …

Moral Hazards And Negative Externalities Of Lifesaving Programs: How Naloxone Access Laws And Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs Affect Hiv Transmission, Jeremy Horn

CMC Senior Theses

This paper looks at naloxone access laws and prescription drug monitering programs and see how these programs affect HIV transmission and drug overdose deaths. Using an OLS regression I find that NAL reduces HIV and increases overdose deaths. I also find reducing the number of drug prescriptions increase HIV and overdose deaths because users switch to intravenous methods.

The Political Economy Of State Minimum Wage Laws And Legislator Voting Behavior, Sophia Helland

CMC Senior Theses

The Median Voter Theorem is a key concept in political economy, one that has been tested numerous times in the literature. However, it remains unclear the extent to which legislators respond to the needs of their district on a bill-by-bill basis. This paper seeks to understand the role of ideology and of local economic pressures that a state legislator faces when deciding how to vote on minimum wage legislation. Although some papers have examined legislator voting behavior on specific issues, this paper uses state legislatures and minimum wage bills to innovate on this existing literature in two key ways. First, …

The Noxious Market Of Division 1 College Football, Bryan Carlen

CMC Senior Theses

This paper is made up of four sections. The first will explain Satz’ framework for identifying and treating noxious markets, as well as how it was developed, and the second will make the case for viewing D1 football as a labor market. The second section will lay out who’s involved, what their incentives are, and what they must do to earn these incentives. The third section will then apply Satz’ framework to the market at hand, as well as address a gap in her theory regarding her concept of weak agency. The paper will then conclude with policy guidelines that, …

Buying Influence? An Analysis Of The Political And Economic Impacts Of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment In The European Union, Ethan Kable

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis analyzes the economic and political impacts of the recent influx of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) into the European Union (EU). I consider the ways in which EU perceptions of Chinese OFDI have evolved over the course of the past decade as well as what attempts the EU has made at an institutional level to address challenges posed by Chinese investment. I contend that despite institutional efforts to respond to these perceived challenges – namely losing a technological edge, security concerns, and unreciprocated market access – Chinese OFDI in the EU has had a divisive effect. Not …

Inheritance And Financial Health: The Correlation Between Intergenerational Wealth Transfers And Income Levels Of Personal Bankruptcies, Benjamin D. Kahn

CMC Senior Theses

This paper describes the correlations between intergenerational wealth transfers, or IWTs, and income of households in bankruptcy as existing research does not address any linkage between the two events. The effect that inheritances, trust payments, and lump sum gifts have on personal finances will impact the millions of Americans who will receive such transfers during the “Great Wealth Transfer” of the coming decades. I use bankruptcy data from the Federal Judicial Center’s Integrated Database, or IDB, and income data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, or PSID, to produce a dataset that contains average IWT values …

Is There Racial Bias In Officiating Nba Games?, Kyle Gaisano

CMC Senior Theses

Racial discrimination has not only been an issue in policing and in the labor market among others, but also it is a growing and contentious concern in professional sports leagues. This paper uses data from the 2017-18 and the 2018-19 NBA seasons to find evidence of racial bias and market inefficiencies in the context of sports betting markets. We find that although the results only weakly support this, there is some evidence of racial bias in the league. This is because it was found that sports betting companies tend to price in race-related information into the betting odds.

Europe's (Lack Of) Welfare Chauvinism: Evidence From Surveys And Spending, Ethan Davis

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

Immigration’s effect on European welfare states is complicated. On one hand, increased immigration might undermine social solidarity and impose greater fiscal burdens on redistribution, reducing support for welfare spending. On the other, natives could respond to greater globalization with economic anxiety, increasing support for redistribution in order to mitigate risk. Welfare chauvinism predicts a mixed effect—increased spending for programs that middle-class natives use and reduced spending for programs that benefit immigrants disproportionately. I test this theory by analyzing (1) European attitudes towards immigration and welfare spending and (2) actual spending on these programs, particularly social housing. Additionally, I present a …

The Finch Effect: Evolutionary Metaphors And Illiberal Democracy In Central And Eastern Europe, Abigail Woodfield

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

In recent years, several states in Central and Eastern Europe have seen democratic digression. Such illiberal resurgences came as a surprise to the many political scientists who assumed that the future of these states was democratic. Indeed, after the fall of the Soviet Union, the world largely regarded liberal democracy as the predominant system of government. The future seemed bright, and it was tempting to understand that future in evolutionary terms—just as humans evolved under natural selection to become the dominant species, democracy had survived a similar competition and defeated all other systems of government to become the dominant regime. …

The Name Game: The Importance Of Resourcefulness, Ruses, And Recall In Stock Ticker Symbols, Gary N. Smith, Naomi Baer, Erica Barry

Pomona Economics

Previous research reported that a portfolio of stocks with clever ticker symbols outperformed the overall market by a significant margin during the years 1984 to 2005. This paper reports the performance of those stocks during the subsequent years 2006 to 2018, and also investigates the 2006-2008 performance of a new set of clever-ticker stocks. Both clever-ticker portfolios beat the market by a substantial margin, supporting the resiliency of the clever-ticker phenomenon.

Step Away From Stepwise, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

Stepwise regression is a popular data-mining tool that uses statistical significance to select the explanatory variables to be used in a multiple-regression model. A fundamental problem with stepwise regression is that some real explanatory variables that have causal effects on the dependent variable may happen to not be statistically significant, while nuisance variables may be coincidentally significant. As a result, the model may fit the data well in-sample, but do poorly out-of-sample. Many Big-Data researchers believe that, the larger the number of possible explanatory variables, the more useful is stepwise regression for selecting explanatory variables. The reality is that stepwise …

Be Wary Of Black-Box Trading Algorithms, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

Black-box algorithms now account for nearly a third of all U. S. stock trades. It is a mistake to think that these algorithms possess superhuman intelligence. In reality, computers do not have the common sense and wisdom that humans have accumulated by living. Trading algorithms are particularly dangerous because they are so efficient at discovering statistical patterns—but so utterly useless in judging whether the discovered patterns are meaningful.

It Is Time To Kill The Economic Theory Of Suicide, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

A seminal paper by Hamermesh and Soss modeled suicide as a rational economic decision based on a comparison of the financial costs and benefits of staying alive. Their model is fundamentally flawed and their prediction that suicide rates increase with age is wrong.

The Paradox Of Big Data, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

Data-mining is often used to discover patterns in Big Data. It is tempting believe that because an unearthed pattern is unusual it must be meaningful, but patterns are inevitable in Big Data and usually meaningless. The paradox of Big Data is that data mining is most seductive when there are a large number of variables, but a large number of variables exacerbates the perils of data mining.

The Chinese Real Estate Bubble, Gary N. Smith, Wesley Liang

Pomona Economics

China has seen extraordinary economic growth for the past two decades, coupled with a booming housing market. Following the 2008 financial crisis, however, observers began worrying that the Chinese real estate market had been gripped by a speculative bubble. We use residential rent and price data to assess whether these fears are justified. We conclude that residential real estate markets are bubbly in Beijing and Shanghai, with the Beijing housing market frothier than the Shanghai market.

Stock Splits: A Re-Evaluation, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

In theory, stocks splits do not affect a firm’s aggregate market value. Yet, firms often split their stocks in order to keep the price in a desired trading range and, perhaps, to make the stock more affordable to individual investors. Past studies have been inconclusive about whether shareholder returns are affected and whether the effects, if any, are due to affordability or signaling. Using fresh data, all since the decimalization of prices, I find positive effects on shareholder returns, but not because splits make stocks more affordable. The more compelling argument is that corporate stock splits signal a board’s confidence …

Essays On The Economics Of The National Basketball Association (N.B.A.): Testing For Inefficiencies In The N.B.A. Labor Market, Samuel S. Lee

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation is comprised of three economic essays, that each examine the labor market for players in the National Basketball Association (N.B.A.). Neoclassical economics often incorporate models that assume individuals are utility-maximizing agents who behave rationally. However, many studies in the field of behavioral economics have found evidence of irrational decision making, both within laboratory environments as well as in natural settings. The objective of this paper is to provide additional research to this growing body of literature by using empirical data collected from the N.B.A. to conduct quasi-field experiments. Although some may question their generalizability, one of the main …

What Determines Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Research, Qiaoli Yu

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The rise of Chinese multinational enterprises (CMNEs) and the growth of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) have been two important trends in the world economy. This dissertation aims to deliver a complete picture of Chinese OFDI by investigating what determines Chinese OFDI. Based on a perspective of international political economy, we use a multilevel framework which includes country level, industry level, and firm level to demonstrate a reciprocal relationship between the Chinese government’s political benefits and CMNEs’ economic benefits. The Chinese government plays the role of an organizer in this relationship to guarantee its political benefits and enlarge CMNEs’ …

Essays On The Underlying Capacity Of The State And Its Effects On Economic Development, Alma Alicia Bezares Calderón

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on three main topics: state capacity, conflict and development. During my progress in my program, I have become more interested in these issues as I have seen how closely linked they are and how they help to explore questions related to prosperity, or the lack of thereof. In particular, my research, and more precisely this dissertation, concentrates on the connection among these three issues in low- and middle-income countries. In the first chapter, titled ”How Strong is your Shield? Subnational State Capacity and Violence in Mexico” I center the analysis on the case of Mexico, a middle-income …

An Analysis Of The Impact Of The Section 232 Steel And Aluminum Tariffs: Primary Metal Manufacturing Employment In 2016 Trump And Clinton Majority Counties, Sarah Malott

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the potential impact of the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum on employment using county-level data. This study finds that although employment has increased in steel and aluminum related manufacturing industries, it has decreased in a significant downstream industry of manufacturers of steel products. Furthermore, I analyzed the difference in employment trends between counties that voted majority Trump in the 2016 presidential election and counties that voted majority Clinton, and between counties that experienced marginal victories and counties that voted solidly Democrat or Republican. I find that Trump counties have experienced the impact of the tariffs …