Economics Commons^™

Converged Subset Portfolios: An Extension To Subset Optimization, Coleman Cornell

CMC Senior Theses

The limited span of useful data, coupled with increasingly expansive asset universes, cripples the traditional mean-variance problem. When optimizing in these environments, the pronounced effect of estimation error yields extremely unstable portfolios when evaluated out-of-sample. As a proposed solution to the "curse of dimensionality," Gillen (2016) presents subset optimization as a technique to reduce the impact of estimation error. Instead of optimizing jointly over the entire asset universe, subset optimization na\"ively aggregates over many "subset portfolios" that each optimize over a much smaller random sample of assets. Given the inefficiencies when using naive aggregation, converged subset optimization is presented as …

Diversifying Investment Portfolios With Collectible Sneakers: Expected Returns And Benefits Of Diversification, Samuel Soo

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis seeks to identify if collectible sneakers can provide diversification benefits to an investor’s portfolio. Using data from a global collectible sneaker marketplace, StockX, I constructed an index to compare it with other traditional assets, including the S&P 500 index and 5-year US Treasury Bills. By calculating key metrics including expected returns, volatility, and correlation, I analyzed the risk-return characteristics of the collectible sneaker asset class compared to other traditional asset classes. From the data analysis I performed, I found that collectible sneakers did not outperform returns significantly compared to traditional asset classes, but had low correlations, which provides …

The Socioeconomic Impact And Allocative Discrepancies Of Fema Disaster Declarations And Aid, Emma Ranheim

CMC Senior Theses

In my thesis I examine the impact of natural disaster declarations on socioeconomic outcomes. I use counties that requested, but did not receive, a natural disaster declaration as controls for treatment counties that received the requested declaration. I construct a county-by-year panel dataset covering 2005 to 2016. I estimate a difference-in-differences model to estimate socioeconomic outcomes resulting from the disaster declaration decision. I find that receiving a declaration was associated with a 0.8 percentage point poverty reduction in 2010, but no other years or changes in socioeconomic outcomes were causally and significantly established by my model.

Dropping The Ball: A Political And Economic Analysis Of Public Subsidization For Stadium Construction Projects, Max Fisher

CMC Senior Theses

The results generated by this research argue that the high cost of public subsidization does not outweigh the benefits associated with new stadiums. By using several cost-benefit analyses, my research adds to the current literature that these projects, while seemingly beneficial for communities, induces negligible or even negative outcomes. In particular, this study details the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Yankees, explaining how these teams were able to achieve a new stadium. To understand why politicians continually support stadium construction despite extensive literature showing its harms, this research includes explanations based on the political theory from authors such …

Gambling Autonomy: The Impact Of Latin American Central Bank Independence On Risk Aversion Within Monetary Policy Implementation, Julia Duarte Schulman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the effect of Latin American central bank independence (CBI) on risk-averse behaviors in monetary policy. Using a fixed effects panel regression, I document how multiple forms of monetary policy are influenced by different macroeconomic variables, conflicting policy targets and central bank independence benchmarks. The results show that increasing CBI has a positive impact on risk aversion, especially in policies targeting inflation and money supply. Additionally, the results show that interest rates and reserve requirements were especially susceptible to changes in independence, while the monetary base and volume of domestic credit were less influenced. Finally, as time and …

‘It’S Like Baking A Cake’: An Analysis Of Conscience Voting In The New Zealand House Of Representatives Since The Introduction Of The Mixed-Member Proportional System In 1996, Harrison Hosking

CMC Senior Theses

Conscience voting in the New Zealand House of Representatives offers a unique opportunity to assess Sam Peltzman’s ‘Principal-Agent Theory’ as outlined in his 1984 paper, Constituent Interest and Congressional Voting.

This thesis begins with a brief assessment of the principal-agent model (and other literature regarding parliamentary representation) before looking at the New Zealand Parliamentary system and the phenomenon of private member’s bills and how they aid the legislative process. This is followed by an exploration of a constructed dataset of conscience votes that have occurred since the inception of the mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system in 1996. An analysis …

Zoom In, Class Out: An Event Study On Publicly Traded Ed Tech Firm Valuations During Covid-19, Matiss Ozols

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how publicly traded Ed Tech firms reacted to negative announcements regarding COVID-19. Using an event study method, I document how an international portfolio of Ed Tech firms react across multiple event windows. The results show that Ed Tech firms reacted positively to the announcement of the first US death and negatively to the World Health Organization’s declaration that COVID-19 was a pandemic. Additionally, differences in geographical location did not impact cumulative abnormal returns across event windows. Finally, firm-specific characteristics such as volatility and financial leverage had little or no significance on stock returns.

An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein

CMC Senior Theses

Regression splines have an established value for producing quality fit at a relatively low-degree polynomial. This paper explores the implications of adopting new methods for knot selection in tandem with established methodology from the current literature. Structural features of generated datasets, as well as residuals collected from sequential iterative models are used to augment the equidistant knot selection process. From analyzing a simulated dataset and an application onto the Racial Animus dataset, I find that a B-spline basis paired with equally-spaced knots remains the best choice when data are evenly distributed, even when structural features of a dataset are known …

Determinants Of Housing Supply Expansion In The Western United States, Nathaniel Tolles

CMC Senior Theses

New residential construction is an important indicator of economic health. Previous empirical work demonstrates the profound power of housing starts in forecasting recession. Theoretical research, backed by empirical study, suggests that home prices and interest rates are closely related to the amount of residential investment. This paper attempts to better understand the complex relationship between various factors that influence the supply and demand of new housing; what information do suppliers and regulators use to determine how many new units of housing will be constructed? Specifically, we will look at the respective state housing markets of California, Oregon, and Washington by …

The Motherhood Wage Penalty: New Evidence On Long-Run Effects And Group Heterogeneity, Vera Kratz

CMC Senior Theses

This paper seeks to establish the magnitude of the long-run motherhood wage penalty. Using data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, I examine the difference between the real hourly wages of mothers and non-mothers in the long run. By comparing mothers to not-yet-mothers as well as never-mothers, I am able to better isolate the true wage penalty mothers face. My findings indicate that 21 to 25 years after the birth of their first child, mothers face a 31.75 percentage point wage penalty compared to non-mothers. In addition, I examine differences in the wage penalties of mothers by marital …

Not From My Wallet: Mental Accounting For Peer-To-Peer Digital-Payments, Jason Saltzman

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examined the presence and scope of mental accounting biases for peer- to-peer digital-payment systems (Venmo, PayPal, and Zelle) that have gained popularity in recent years. Payment mechanism related biases have implications for both consumers and retailers. The experimental study in this paper looked at different aspects of biases including how participants evaluate and account for money transferred through peer-to- peer digital-payment, if participants treat this money as completely fungible, and if treatment of this money is affected by demographic variables. Participants in the study were split into two treatments that differed only in regard to the account (peer-to-peer …

Understanding Place-Based Immigration: The Proposal, Its Popularity, And Its Prospects, Mohamad Moslimani

CMC Senior Theses

The idea to create a new class of place-based visas is gaining traction in policy circles. These visas, known in some instances as “heartland visas” and as part of a class of immigration reform called “place-based immigration” (PBI), are designed to give state and local governments the ability to sponsor immigrants to live and work in their local communities. The proposal has gained traction among a variety of candidates for federal office and local immigration policy stakeholders. The reason for this support is the proposal’s ability to address a grave issue facing numerous communities across the U.S.—and its ability to …

Would “Robot Umpires” Reduce Discrimination? Measuring Racial Bias In Major League Baseball Umpires, Hank Snowdon

CMC Senior Theses

Utilizing thirteen years of Major League Baseball pitch-tracking and play-by-play data, this study investigates racial discrimination by umpires when making pitch calling decisions. Two models are formulated, one that predicts the probability of a strike erroneously being called a ball (batter favoritism) and one that predicts the probability of a ball erroneously being called a strike (pitcher favoritism). The probabilities are modeled as a function of whether or not the pitcher’s or batter’s race is the same as the umpire’s. With over 3 million pitch observations, multiple sub-sample and time trend analyses are conducted to examine with whom the discrimination …

Sufficientarianism Revised: A Look At Past Theories Of Distributive Justice And Working Prospects For Future Theories, Georgia Dietz

CMC Senior Theses

In philosophy, distributive justice is the economic, political, and social structure that constitutes a larger debate on how resources should be divided in society. What is a ‘fair’ way of distributing resources? Many philosophers have created different frameworks that attempt to answer this question. This paper will focus on the attempts that have been made by sufficientarians, then look at problems with these theories that have been pointed out by critics, and finally attempt to revise sufficientarianism altogether.

The Role Of Cost, Scale, And Property Attributes In Landowner Choice Of Stormwater Management Option., W. Bowman Cutter, Alexander Pusch

Pomona Economics

Cities throughout the world are experimenting with Low Impact Development (LID) strategies to replace ecosystem services degraded by urbanization. Stormwater management may need both centralized/publicly-managed infrastructure and decentralized provision by landowners. For landowners to participate in these programs they will need some latitude in the choice of techniques and siting. However, these landowner choices will affect the bundle of ecosystem services provided (such as infiltration, aesthetics, pollution filtering, and others) as well as their spatial distribution. We studied the Santa Monica (CA) stormwater regulations that require stormwater management on a large portion of development and redevelopment but allow a significant …

The Shadow Cost Of Parking Minimums: Evidence From Los Angeles County, Sofia Franco, W. Bowman Cutter, Skyler Lewis

Pomona Economics

Minimum Parking Requirements (MPRs) are almost universal in U.S. cities and common in the rest of the world. In the U.S., parking requirements for commercial buildings commonly require 700 ft² of parking for each 1000 ft² of floor space. To the extent this is a binding requirement, MPRs could result in distortion in commercial development. MPRs require either the allocation of land for parking, or very costly substitution of structured parking for land. Therefore, MPR distortions are likely to increase with the value of land. A steep gradient in the cost of the MPRs leads to the possibility …

The International Spread Of Covid-19 Stock Market Collapses, Silvio Contessi, Pierangelo De Pace

Pomona Economics

We identify periods of mildly explosive dynamics and collapses in the stock markets of 18 major countries during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. We find statistical evidence of instability transmission from the Chinese stock market to all other markets. The recovery is heterogeneous and generally non-explosive.

Comovement And Instability In Cryptocurrency Markets, Pierangelo De Pace, Jayant Rao

Pomona Economics

We analyze the extent of comovement between daily price returns of nine major cryptocurrencies during the first three main phases of their development, from April 2013 to November 2018. We assess its evolution using bivariate and multivariate modelling approaches, and detect pronounced time variation. Generally, comovement is initially low and positive, but increases between early 2017 and late 2018. We then adopt a right-tail version of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify periods of mildly explosive behavior (statistical instability) in the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio (a measure of the dollar value of cryptocurrency transaction activity relative …

Mildly Explosive Dynamics In U.S. Fixed Income Markets, Silvio Contessi, Pierangelo De Pace, Massimo Guidolin

Pomona Economics

We use a recently developed right-tail variation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test to identify and date-stamp periods of mildly explosive behavior in the weekly time series of eight U.S. fixed income yield spreads between September 2002 and April 2018. We find statistically significant evidence of mildly explosive dynamics in six of these spreads, two of which are short/medium-term mortgage- related spreads. We show that the time intervals characterized by instability that we estimate from these yield spreads capture known episodes of financial and economic distress in the U.S. economy. Mild explosiveness migrates from short-term funding markets to medium- …

Thailand’S Digital Economy Transformation: Rectifying The Middle-Income Trap By Leveraging Digital Capabilities In The Agriculture Industry, Watanyoo Suksa-Ngiam

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The Thai government has been attempting to move the country out of the middle-income trap through digital economy strategies. Among these strategies, digital innovation is the most central. Leveraging digital capabilities in the agriculture industry, a sector that a large number of low-income farmers work in, conveys digital innovations to farmers. Digital innovation is expected to increase farmer incomes and ultimately help the country step out of the middle-income trap. This dissertation aimed to 1) identify the major challenges of digital economy transformation, 2) develop a model that explains digital agriculture innovations, 3) apply the model to real use cases …

Adoption, Spatial Patterns, And Behavioral Mechanisms In California Turf Removal Rebate Programs, John Shideler

CGU Theses & Dissertations

In January of 2014 the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California implemented a $450 million-dollar regional turf removal rebate program which provided homeowners with a cash rebate for every square foot of natural turf removed from their yard and replaced with a program approved alternative. This dissertation is divided into three distinct papers that analyze the role that non-price mechanisms such as peer effects, social norms, personal norms, and household characteristics play in the household decision to participate in this program. The first paper uses a multilevel survival model framework to explore spatial patterns, drivers of participation, and the presence …

The Impact Of Daca On The Labor Force: An Analysis On Non-Native Wage Growth, Chantal Balta

Scripps Senior Theses

Considering the recent efforts of the Trump Administration to rescind the Deferred Act for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), I wanted to explore how this policy has impacted the American labor market since its inception in 2012. Specifically, this paper discusses the impact of DACA on non-native wage growth. By using data from the American Community Survey from the years 2000-2016, we will use a difference-in-difference model to see the impact of the policy on immigrants recorded in the dataset by using the native-born labor force as a control. Initial results indicate that there is no statistically significant impact on non-native wage …

Saudi Stock Market Reaction To Different Major Events, Ahmed Aljarba

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This study implements event study analyses to investigate participants’ reactions to nine different, important events impacting the Saudi Arabian stock market. It analyzes the dynamics of security prices in the Saudi Arabian stock market during the first five days surrounding the event dates. I tested the significance of abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns of all the 20 sectors during the (-5,+5) days event window. I found that the market participants react both positively and negatively to different events examined in the study, which was reflected in both the positive and negative cumulative average abnormal returns. The results could be …

The Weaponization Of Poverty: An Investigation Into United States Military Recruitment Practices In High Schools Of Low-Income Communities In The Inland Empire, Michael Springer-Gould

Pitzer Senior Theses

Military recruitment in the United States is a highly contentious subject that has yielded a multitude of prior research across a variety of academic concentrations. To further the conversation, I narrow my focus to Southern California’s Inland Empire (IE) to explore practices of military recruitment in high schools that serve students in low-income communities. I begin with a general overview of life and labor in the Inland Empire before moving into prior research on military recruitment. My empirical research consists of five in-depth interviews documenting the lived experiences of individuals hailing from and attending high school in low-income communities of …

Libor Manipulation And The Transition To Sofr, Seth Taylor-Brill

CMC Senior Theses

With the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) likely to disappear at the end of 2021 due to its manipulation during the 2008 financial crisis, the financial industry must decide what to do about legacy contracts tied to LIBOR and must select a new interest rank benchmark regime going forwards. This paper provides insight into those questions by first contributing to the existing literature aimed at measuring the extent of LIBOR manipulation and then by developing a model to explain the LIBOR-SOFR spread. This paper analyzes banks’ LIBOR submissions from 2006 to 2008 to identify bank collusion to strategically increase or …

The Timing Of Childbirth: Does The Age Of First-Time Mothers Affect The Parental Gender Earnings Gap?, Anna Graves

CMC Senior Theses

This paper assesses the impact the timing of first birth may have on the parental gender wage gap. Using data from the 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), I use a pooled, cross-sectional sample of full-time parents in the United States labor force to examine the relationship between earnings and age at first birth for mothers and fathers and any relative difference that arises between the two. My findings indicate the presence of a parental gender wage gap, and that the timing of first birth can significantly impact parental wages. In addition, my results suggest that the timing …

U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Flows And U.S. Employment, Tobin Hansen

CMC Senior Theses

The U.S.-China diplomatic relationship today is shaped significantly by economic factors. Recent strains of literature have expanded our understanding of how international economic policy choices have effected U.S. workers and labor markets. This paper extends this research by imposing bilateral symmetry in the trade flow calculations of previous works, which historically have considered U.S. exports globally. I build on the net-impact analysis of Feenstra, Ma, and Xu (2017b) and adopt the instrumental variable strategy used in Acemoglu et al. (2016), which uses Chinese trade flows with eight additional high-income countries to avoid endogeneity when comparing U.S.-China trade. From this analysis, …

An Empirical Analysis Of Company Culture: Using Glassdoor Data To Measure The Impact Of Culture And Employee Satisfaction On Performance, Linnea Uyeno

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of culture and employee satisfaction on company performance; it considers which elements of culture are most important in specific industries: manufacturing, technology, and finance. Additionally, it explores whether these elements of productive cultures are also associated with employee satisfaction. It uses data from the MIT Sloan Management Review/Glassdoor Culture 500 database, which applied machine learning to analyze 1.2 million Glassdoor reviews. This data quantitatively measures nine dimensions of culture: agility, collaboration, customer focus, diversity, execution, innovation, integrity performance, and respect—assigning each company a score for every cultural dimension. Two depende­­­nt variables are used to measure …

Trickle Down Nationalism: Interactions Between Liberal Nationalism And Colonialism In The Raj And Nigeria, Aaryaman Sheoran

CMC Senior Theses

The combination of nationalism and colonialism has remained understudied in academia, despite the important interaction between the two phenomena. European ideas bled over into their colonial empires and began to fill the power vacuum created by colonial enterprises. This study analyzes the impact of British colonialism on the development of national identity in British India and Nigeria.

British influences included large scale economic disruption, cultural reform through ‘westernizing’ the population and abolishing local customs, and creating a new set of institutions to replace traditional power centers. Inevitably, these factors created a nationalist surge across both the Raj and Nigeria, as …

What Is The Effect Of Social Capital On Community Resiliency Against Social Decay?, James Dail

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis builds off of the work of Robert Putnam and Charles Murray by using a fixed effects regression model and a first difference regression model to see if there is a relationship between the number of community institutions within a county and that county’s resiliency against social decay. Historically, it has been difficult to determine if there is a causal relationship in either direction between these variables because they are endogenous. That is, the underlying factors that determine whether a county will have low levels of social capital also determine whether the same county will have high levels of …