Economics Commons^™

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …

Bitcoin And The American Conflict Over Money And Property, Jacob Smagula

CMC Senior Theses

I argue that Bitcoin is the latest expression of the recurring American conflict over who controls the terms of money and property, and that the political coalition formed around Bitcoin shares the same characteristics as earlier coalitions formed around this struggle. I review three historical cases that each produced a coalition opposing the existing monetary order: the Bank War of the 1830s, the Free Silver movement of the 1890s, and the populist backlash against the Federal Reserve during the 1979 Farm Crisis and the 2008 Great Recession. I find that Bitcoin’s architecture, which allows for self-custody, permissionless access, and an …

The Zoom Town Effect Of Remote Work On Rural Housing Markets, Luc R. Fabing

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of remote work on rural housing markets, highlighting the moderating role of outdoor recreation amenities. Using panel data from the American Community Survey and Zillow (2010–2024), I employ a Two-Way Fixed Effects model and a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to estimate the effect of work-from-home (WFH) rates on home prices. I find that higher WFH rates are strongly associated with higher home prices in high-recreation counties, but that the association is weak or negative in counties lacking significant recreation amenities. These findings point to amenity migration as a key mechanism through which remote work impacts rural …

Procedural Rhetoric And Prosociality: How Game Mechanics Shape Altruistic Decision-Making, Elijah Emory-Muhammad

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates how different prosocial video game designs influence subsequent altruistic behavior, specifically comparing interactive narratives with procedural rhetoric. While prior research demonstrates that prosocial games can prime helpful behaviors, less is known about the underlying mechanical structures driving these effects. Fifteen participants engaged with either an Interactive Narrative Game (ING) or a Procedural Rhetoric Game (PRG) before completing a resource allocation task (Dictator Game). Results revealed no statistically significant differences between the two conditions in promoting sacrificial altruism or satisfying basic psychological needs. Instead, participants across both groups demonstrated a strong adherence to an equality-seeking norm, consistently choosing …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Wiener-Granger Causality To Model Banking Sector Contagion, Riya Bhasin

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, we explore the main drivers behind the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and how the interconnectivity of banking sectors contributed to the worldwide spread of its effects. To understand how this became a global phenomenon, we apply linear Wiener-Granger Causality as a form of network analysis, building on pre-existing methodology in order to study continent banking indices. We find connections across locales on the continent and country level, but ones that are weak. Our modelling was insufficient to completely capture existing and well-known relationships accurately. This occurs due to limitations of the data and of the linear models’ …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Beyond Bans: A Travel Distance-Based Approach To Estimating The Effects Of Dobbs V. Jackson Women’S Health Organization On Fertility And Labor Supply, Enya Kamadolli

CMC Senior Theses

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision had highly heterogeneous effects on abortion access across U.S. states, variation I exploit to identify causal effects on fertility and labor supply. Rather than a binary “total ban” indicator, I construct a continuous treatment measure based on changes in distance to the nearest legal abortion provider between 2021 and 2023, and apply a difference-in-differences design to state-level panel data. Effects are attenuated and imprecise in the South, consistent with diminishing marginal effects at large distances. In non-Southern states, I find that a 100 km increase in distance raises total births by about …

Postsecondary Enrollment Demand-Gap Estimation Model: Projecting The Postsecondary Demand-Gap For California By 2035, Manish Ranjan Shrivastav

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The postsecondary education system in California has been under the pressure of expansion by the means of opening a new campus for several years. The Legislative Analyst’s Office has been recommending whether to open new campus or not as a part of its mandate. In 1990, it recommended opening up of one campus of CSU, however, its projections grossly underestimated the future demand. In 2017, the LAO in its report recommended that given the demand projections there is no need for a new campus. The study commissioned by the Chancellor’s office of California State University also made the same recommendation. …

Three Essays On Consumption And Information, Jin Xu

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation uses theoretical, empirical, and experimental methods to investigate how environmental constraints and psychological mechanisms shape individual consumption and information preference. Chapter 1 explores the impact of COVID-19 lockdown policies on alcohol and tobacco use in the United States. Using data from the 2020 wave of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and exploiting the exogenous variation in initial lockdown orders across states, we estimate the impact of stay-at-home orders on drinking and smoking behaviors for adults in the United States. Combining the propensity score matching method with the difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that, at least in …

The Us Unconventional Monetary Policy And International Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies, Tianyuan Zhang

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on international capital inflows to emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2003Q1 to 2019Q4, with a focus on quantitative easing (QE) and its normalization phases, including both tapering and quantitative tightening (QT). Using a panel data model with fixed effects, this dissertation finds that the spillover effects of US monetary policy during the QE period have a more pronounced effect on EME capital inflows than do those during the normalization period, where the effects are relatively muted. Second, decomposing the normalization phase into tapering and QT periods reveals that the impact …

The Economics Of Crime: Exploring The Impact Of Psychedelics, Gun Liability Insurance, And Zero-Bail Policies On Crime, Victor Olu Kilanko

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the intersection of public health and criminal justice by empirically evaluating the effects of three distinct policy reforms: psychedelic decriminalization, firearm liability mandates, and zero cash bail, on crime outcomes in California. It aims to inform evidence-based policymaking by leveraging quasi-experimental methods to identify the causal impact of each intervention. A growing number of U.S. jurisdictions have decriminalized psychedelic substances, and there are attendant theoretical expectations that such reforms could promote desistance from crime through the rehabilitative potential of psychedelics. This study examines the causal impact of psychedelic decriminalization on violent and property crime rates using monthly …

Electric Commuter Rail Access In Residential Communities: A Hedonic Analysis Case Study Of Nonmarket Value Creation, Catherine A. Sunding

Scripps Senior Theses

This study quantifies the price impact on houses of a new electric commuter rail line outside of Denver, Colorado. I find a negative price impact corresponding to increased accessibility and proximity of homes to the rail stations due to the negative externalities associated with the track. I also discover an even larger negative price impact of the rail stations in the years before the stations opened to the public, indicating possible endogeneity in the location of the rail line. I attempt to account for this endogeneity using instrumental variable analysis due to a limitation of house pricing data before 2016.

Fair Play Or Financial Power? Examining The Competitive Impact Of Foreign Investment In European Football, Emma M. Fogg

Scripps Senior Theses

Football is not only the most popular sport in Europe but also fundamental to driving local and international economies due to the heavy influence fans have on driving ticket sales, team merchandise purchases and media rights. In the last twenty years, it has become increasingly popular for wealthy capital groups or businessmen from outside Europe to buy clubs and give teams a large influx of capital. Fans and players alike have grown worried that this type of new ownership will change the football world for the worse because teams with foreign investment can outspend their opponents for the best players. …

Where Purpose Meets Profit: The Impact Of Firm Size On The Relationship Between Esg Performance And Corporate Financial Performance On Firms In The Technology Industry, Riya Hariharan

Scripps Senior Theses

This study evaluates the impact of firm size on the relationship between ESG performance and corporate financial performance of firms within the technology industry. Specifically, this study uses OLS analysis to assess the relationship between ESG, measured using Morningstar Sustainalytics ESG risk scores, and return on assets, using firm market cap as a proxy for firm size. Data was compiled into an original dataset consisting of 254 firms. Results were significant, finding that increasing ESG practices in small and medium firms increases ROA. These findings highlight the economic value of social responsibility efforts in technology firms, particularly in small and …

Essays On The Effectiveness Of Diversion Programs In The United States Criminal Justice System, Tairy Ayon

CGU Theses & Dissertations

The United States criminal justice system is at a transformative time, with growing public support for reforms that prioritize rehabilitation over punishment. In response to this shift, prosecutor-led diversion programs are being introduced in areas where they were previously absent and expanded with increased resources in regions already established across the United States. This dissertation measures the effectiveness of these programs in three ways and uses data from six diverse U.S. jurisdictions. In the first chapter, I focus on how age-based eligibility criteria shape participation in diversion programs and its effectiveness in reducing recidivism. To do this, I examine data …

The Game Of Going Public: Market Timing, Information Asymmetry, And The Signaling Effects Of Initial Public Offerings (Ipos) In The Technology Industry, Kiana Seva

Scripps Senior Theses

My thesis explores the game of going public in the technology industry, specifically the strategic decision-making process of issuing an initial public offering (IPO), the advantages a company may gain from its market timing, and the signaling effects of its IPO. Existing research on this subject is vast but fragmented into areas that focus on the decision to go public, game theoretical analysis of the advantages, analysis of the advantages using quantitative data, and signaling effects. To address this gap, I developed and analyzed three game theoretic models which account for all these factors that affect the success of an …

Reporting And Underreporting Of Sex Harassment In United States Public Schools: A Mixed Methods Analysis, Erica S. Matthisen

Scripps Senior Theses

Using mixed methods, I assess the factors that contribute to the underreporting of sex harassment in elementary and secondary educational environments. I first use regional Title IX data to assess the impacts of Title IX resource access on several indicator variables, finding a positive impact on allegations and discipline cases when a harassment/bullying policy was made available online. Next, I seek to identify other factors that contribute to reporting or underreporting. To that end, I conduct organizational analysis and informational interviews. From the organizational analysis, I identify factors that contribute to the normalization and underreporting of sex harassment and strategies …

The Implications Of A Rise In The Minimum Wage: Evidence From Female Workers In Mexico, Isabella Cardenas Padilla

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis analyzes the 2019 minimum wage reform in Mexico, evaluating its impact on female labor market outcomes, including labor force participation, formal employment, and informal employment. This reform introduced a new geographic minimum wage zone along municipalities bordering the United States, accompanied by fiscal incentives, creating a natural experiment for analysis. Using difference-in-differences regression specifications, the study finds that the minimum wage increase was associated with a rise in formal sector employment and a corresponding decline in informal employment among women with low educational attainment. This study finds a magnitude of 6 percentage points in each direction, an economically …

Synthetic Statocracy - Pakistan’S Self-Created Inferno: Examining The Causes And Consequences Of Military Dominance In Pakistan, Umer Lakhani

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the history of military rule in Pakistan. Applying the framework of Johannes Gerschewski in The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes, this paper looks to explain how military rulers who presided over the three periods of military rule in Pakistan consolidated and maintained their power, as well as the effects that these periods of rule had on Pakistani society. This paper will also supplement Gerschewski’s general framework by applying the findings of various established authors who have been published extensively on Pakistan’s political history, economy and relationship with the military. Such authors …

Art As Asset: The Rise Of The Financialized Art Market And The Abstraction Of Value, Kenneth Knothe

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the financialization of art through the expanding use of art-backed loans and institutional involvement. It focuses on how artworks—once primarily valued for their aesthetic or cultural significance—are now routinely treated as financial assets within the art market. The paper uses case studies from Sotheby’s Financial Services and Mitchell F. Chan’s blockchain-based reinterpretation of Yves Klein’s Zones of Immaterial Pictorial Sensibility. Drawing on the work of Walter Benjamin, Pierre Bourdieu, and Wendy Brown, it argues that this shift undermines museums’ roles as cultural stewards and redefines the meaning of value in the art world to something more quantifiable. …

Market Implied Risk-Free Rates: An Analysis Of The Put-Call Parity Implied Rate, Silviu Velovici

CGU Theses & Dissertations

This study investigates the interest rate implied by put-call parity as an alternative, market-based proxy for the risk-free rate. Studying the implied risk-free rate from option prices is important because it provides insights into how market participants collectively perceive short-term financing conditions, independent of official Treasury-Bill yields. Since Treasury securities and the LIBOR are conventionally used as proxies for the risk-free rate, any persistent discrepancy between the put-call parity implied rate and the Treasury-Bill rate, or the put-call parity implied spread, can be interpreted as a signal of market frictions, investor behavior anomalies, sentiment-driven pricing dynamics, or information asymmetries.

By …

The Effect Of Regime Type On Development Outcomes In Bangladesh, Simar Malhotra

Scripps Senior Theses

Bangladesh has been characterized by a turbulent political state since gaining its independence in 1971, moving back and forth between a democracy and autocracy. With this, they have also experienced immense gains in development over the last thirty years, especially within health, education, and female empowerment. This thesis exploits Bangladesh’s unique regime-switching setting to measure the impact of a shift from autocracy to democracy on child health, maternal health, and women’s autonomy within a single-country context. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program, the analysis finds that a shift from an autocracy to a democracy increases the …

Price Sensitivity In The Secondhand Market: An Analysis Of Consumer Behavior On Ebay, Reyna Kleemeier

Scripps Senior Theses

The secondhand market is rapidly expanding, driven by growing consumer interest in sustainable consumption and economic value. This thesis examines consumer price sensitivity within the online resale market. Using a unique dataset of eBay clothing transactions, I employ an OLS regression model to analyze price elasticity of demand across various categories of new and used goods. I find that used goods exhibit characteristics of Veblen goods, where higher prices correlate with increased demand, suggesting that consumers perceive elevated prices as signals of rarity, quality, or exclusivity. My results highlight the nuanced dynamics of online resale markets, where consumer behavior is …

Covid-19'S Impact On Grocery Expenditure Amid The Rise Of Social Media's Unattainable Wellness Culture Within Beverage Products, Ava Hinz

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper explores post-pandemic consumption through two different lens: economics and media studies. First, I will focus on COVID-19’s impact on the expenditure of grocery goods. Then I will explore how today’s wellness culture is made unattainable through social media by examining an organic grocery store and two beverage products. By examining these two areas of consumption, it provides critical information on an individual’s consumption during the unique shocks of the pandemic and the cultural context behind those actions.

Determinants Of Remote Suitability Of Jobs And Residential Distance From The Workplace After The Covid-19 Pandemic, Abizer Mamnoon

CMC Senior Theses

Immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic, workers performed 14% of their paid hours from home, but this figure increased to 38% after the pandemic (Chen et al. 2023). This thesis contributes to our understanding of the determinants of remote work and the factors affecting how far an individual lives from the workplace in the post-pandemic period.

I use 1.95 million observations of worker-specific LinkedIn data from August 2023. I construct a measure of remote suitability using Dingel and Neiman’s (2020) method to assign each job title a remote suitability score based on the associated occupation. I use a Tobit regression to …

Beginner's Luck: The Impact Of Early Wins On Long-Term Gambling Patterns, Jasmine Tan

CMC Senior Theses

The legalization of online sports gambling has rapidly expanded access to gambling platforms, raising concerns about its potential impacts on gambling behavior and addiction. This study investigates whether early wins in online sports gambling predict sustained gambling engagement. Using longitudinal data from 46,339 subscribers to online gambling site bwin Entertainment, we analyzed the gambling activity of new sports bettors over 18 months. Gamblers were categorized based on early outcomes (losses, break-even, small wins, and big wins), and engagement was measured by total bets placed, total gambling days, total stakes after the first three days, and frequency of play. Interaction terms …

Assessing The Impact Of Medicaid Expansion On The Labor Market, Healthcare Access, And Health Outcomes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Kaavya Narayan

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the impact of Medicaid expansion status on labor market outcomes, healthcare access, and health outcomes during COVID-19. Using data from the CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model, I estimate the effects of Medicaid expansion on unemployment, financial barriers to care, obesity, and poor health before and after the pandemic. The analysis also accounts for state-level political and demographic characteristics, gender, marital status, and education level. My results show that non-expansion states, relative to expansion states of similar political and demographic breakdowns, are significantly more disadvantaged in terms of obesity, poor health, financial …