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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Determinants Of Bilateral Trade Performance Of The Member Countries Of The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), E. Osuji Sep 2013

Determinants Of Bilateral Trade Performance Of The Member Countries Of The West African Monetary Zone (Wamz), E. Osuji

Economic and Financial Review

This study sought to identify the drivers of import demand in the region, as a basis for proposing achievable alternative strategies for enhancing the level of intra-regional trade in the Zone. The study estimated a global import trade model for the Zone to establish the key determinants of its import demand. Using the pooled regression technique, the study analyzed quarterly data spanning the period 1985 to 2012, for the five original member countries of the WAMZ. The following is a highlight of the outcome of the analyses: given its positive sign and significance, trade liberalisation has the potential of boosting …

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Financial Inclusion In Nigeria: Issues And Challenges, Ukpai Kama, Mustapha A. Adigun Aug 2013

Financial Inclusion In Nigeria: Issues And Challenges, Ukpai Kama, Mustapha A. Adigun

CBN Occasional Papers

Financial Inclusion is a state where financial services are delivered by a range of providers, mostly the private sector, to reach everyone who could use them. Specifically, it means a financial system that serves as many people as possible in a country. In recent time, financial Inclusion has assumed a critical development policy priority in many countries, particularly in developing economies. This paper reviewed experiences of other jurisdictions in the achievement of financial inclusion. More importantly, the various country experiences showed that, though financial inclusion may have become a general phenomenon, its nature, form and challenges differ among jurisdictions and …

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Transition To Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting: A Proposed Programme For Implementation By The Central Bank Of Nigeria, Michael O. Ojo Jun 2013

Transition To Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting: A Proposed Programme For Implementation By The Central Bank Of Nigeria, Michael O. Ojo

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper attempts to provide an input into addressing these issues, especially as regards resolving the technical, administrative and practical problems for a transition to inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy in Nigeria. Specifically, the main purpose of this paper is to outline proposals that would permit the CBN transit successfully to full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) for its monetary policy operations. Following the introduction (Section 1), the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 examines the conceptual framework, focusing on the essential elements and modalities of different monetary policy frameworks. Section 3 contains an overview of the experiences …

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An Analysis Of The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism And The Real Economy In Nigeria, Eddy C. Ndekwu Jun 2013

An Analysis Of The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism And The Real Economy In Nigeria, Eddy C. Ndekwu

CBN Occasional Papers

The study is an empirical analysis which seeks to explain the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the real economy in Nigeria. It examines the process by which the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria actually affects the structure of interest rates, credit, aggregate demand and output production and, hence, changes in inflation rate. In the analysis, we review the paradigm of the channels of monetary policy transmission mechanism by studying over two and-half dozen cases of empirical studies in the economic literature. By applying vector auto-regression (VAR) with dynamic logarithmic form and the ordinary least squares (OLS) …

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Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit Jun 2013

Structural Change And Real Output Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis, P. D. Golit

Economic and Financial Review

The study employed the Johansen (1988) and the Johansen and Juselius (1990) multivariate maximum likelihood method within a Vector Autoregressive framework to explore the impact of structural reforms on the level of real output in Nigeria. We fit the equation separately for two sub-samples, the pre-reform and the market-reform periods, to enable comparisons of the outcomes under alternative policy regimes. We further estimate the model using data that covered the entire sample period to evaluate the total effects and include a dummy variable to capture the impact of the policy shift. The Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run …

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External Reserves Management And Utilization: Nigeria Experience, Emelogu C. Obioma, Abdurrahman Abdullahi Jun 2013

External Reserves Management And Utilization: Nigeria Experience, Emelogu C. Obioma, Abdurrahman Abdullahi

Bullion

The objective of this paper is to appraise developments in external reserves management and utilization in Nigeria, with o view to identifying major challenges and proffering solutions. The paper is divided into six sections. Following this introductory section, section two reviews some of the major conceptual and analytical issues on external reserves management and utilization, while section three discusses Nigeria's external reserves management process. Section four appraises developments in external reserves management and utilization, as well as examines the impact of external reserves on the four sectors of Nigerian economy. Section five highlights major challenges in external reserves management and …

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The Contribution Of Finance To Agricultural Production In Nigeria, O. M. Mbutor, R. E. Ochu, I. I. Okafor Jun 2013

The Contribution Of Finance To Agricultural Production In Nigeria, O. M. Mbutor, R. E. Ochu, I. I. Okafor

Economic and Financial Review

Several studies have found a positive correlation between agricultural financing and the performance of the agricultural sector. But fewer efforts have been directed at sieving out the agricultural output that is exclusively associated with the extent of funding. This study aimed to ascertain the actual portion of total agricultural output that could be attributed to agricultural financing in Nigeria. The vector error correction methodology was applied following the nature of data properties. The results showed a positive effect of finance on agricultural output. However, variance decomposition revealed the poor state of agricultural financing with a disproportionate dependence of the sector …

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Effect Of Deposit Money Banks' Credit On The Performance Of Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Nigeria, G. O. Evbuomwan, V. O. Okoruwa, A. E. Ikpi Jun 2013

Effect Of Deposit Money Banks' Credit On The Performance Of Micro, Small And Medium Enterprises In Nigeria, G. O. Evbuomwan, V. O. Okoruwa, A. E. Ikpi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper set out to empirically evaluate the effect of deposit money banks' credit on the performance of MSMEs in Nigeria, with the aid of a vector autoregression and error correction mechanism (ECM) technique. Results of the empirical investigation confirmed credit had a positive effect on GDP of MSMEs in Nigeria as the coefficient of CAM (credit to MSMEs) was positive (1.0569) and significant at 1.0 per cent level. It was, therefore, recommended that every effort should be made to improve access to credit by MSMEs, so that they could play their potential roles of employment generation and wealth creation …

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Analysis Of External Debt Dynamics In Ecowas Economies, A. C. Chuku Jun 2013

Analysis Of External Debt Dynamics In Ecowas Economies, A. C. Chuku

Economic and Financial Review

This paper recognised the importance of identifying the core determinants of external debt dynamics in ECOWAS economies. Using a panel dynamic generalised least squares procedure, the study sought to identify the core determinants of external debt dynamics in 12 ECOWAS economies from 1970 to 2009. Overall, the findings revealed six core determinants of external debt in ECOWAS economies. Inflation, external reserves, per capita income and real oil prices were inversely related with external debt ratio; while, GDP gap and real effective exchange rate depreciation directly affected external debt. Significant dissimilarities were observed in the influence of government size and inflation …

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On The Derivation Of Estimators Of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (Fgt) Poverty Indices, Oyedeji I. Osowole, Adebayo T. Bamiduro Jun 2013

On The Derivation Of Estimators Of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (Fgt) Poverty Indices, Oyedeji I. Osowole, Adebayo T. Bamiduro

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Poverty analysis has relied heavily on data in summarized form and this has created dearth of knowledge on the statistical properties of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty indices. This study derived estimators of FGT poverty indices from first principles in an attempt to provide an insight into some intrinsic characteristics of FGT indices. The estimators are found to be reasonably unbiased and consistent. The estimates of the indices obtained from the estimators are approximately 53%, 22% and 12% for the head count, poverty gap and square poverty gap indices. From the conventional method, the estimates are approximately 52%, 21% and 11% respectively. …

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Measuring Technical Efficiency Of Wireless And Wired Technologies In Nigeria Cyber Cafés, Sule Magaji, Eke I. Chukwuemeka Jun 2013

Measuring Technical Efficiency Of Wireless And Wired Technologies In Nigeria Cyber Cafés, Sule Magaji, Eke I. Chukwuemeka

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the technical efficiency (TE) of two different remote internet access methods, wireless and wired in Nigeria using the stochastic frontier production function analysis. Primary data were obtained through the use of a set of questionnaire from four hundred and fifty representative samples of cyber café operators. The results show that in Nigeria, in spite of the acclaimed superiority of wireless technologies internationally, wired technology (within the context of Nigeria’s socio-economic constraints) is (still) more efficient technically with mean technical efficient indices of 0.914 and 0.797 respectively. The analysis also suggests that age and years of education of …

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Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba Jun 2013

Monetary Policy Rule: A Broad Monetary Conditions Index For Nigeria, Yaaba N. Baba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

To determine the relative importance of both the domestic and external influences on monetary policy formulation, this paper constructs a broad monetary conditions index for Nigeria. It brings together the three key channels of monetary transmission, namely interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels. The result gives dominance to exchange rate channel, followed by credit channel and interest rate channel. The resultant monetary conditions index traces fairly well the policy direction of the Central Bank of Nigeria for the studied period, hence can serve as an adequate gauge of monetary policy stance of the Bank.

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Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe Jun 2013

Effect Of Monetary-Fiscal Policies Interaction On Price And Output Growth In Nigeria, Musa Yakubu, Asar K. Barfour, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary-fiscal policies interaction on price and output growth in Nigeria. The dynamic correlations of variables have been captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. From innovation analyses, the results suggest that the policy variables money supply and government revenue have more positive impact on price and economic growth in Nigeria specifically in the long run, thus some time with lag. Although monetary and fiscal policy variables have a dominant effect on economic activity, it is clear from this study that economic activity is dominated by its own dynamics in most of …

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The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna Jun 2013

The Relationship Between Domestic Savings And Investment: The Feldstein-Horioka Test Using Nigerian Data, Inuwa Nasiru, Usman M. Haruna

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study explores the relationship between savings and investment in Nigeria during the period 1980-2011. Unlike previous studies, this study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to test for long run relationship. The short-run dynamics are also captured from error correction model (ECM).The results of the Bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between savings and investment. This result is consistent with a number of earlier studies reviewed in the literature that found saving and investment to be cointegrated in the long run. The results also support the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis that postulates low capital …

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Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota Jun 2013

Exchange–Rates Volatility In Nigeria: Application Of Garch Models With Exogenous Break, Bala A. Dahiru, Joseph O. Asemota

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines exchange–rate volatility with GARCH models using monthly exchange–rate return series from 1985:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/US dollar return and from 2004:1 to 2011:7 for Naira/British Pounds and Naira/Euro returns. The study compare estimates of variants of GARCH models with break in respect of the US dollar rates with exogenously determined break points. Our results reveal presence of volatility in the three currencies and equally indicate that most of the asymmetric models rejected the existence of a leverage effect except for models with volatility break. Evaluating the models through standard information criteria, volatility persistence and the log likelihood …

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The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien Jun 2013

The Role Of Central Bank Of Nigeria’S Analytical Balance Sheet And Monetary Survey In Monetary Policy Implementation, Sani I. Doguwa, Sunday N. Essien

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the significance of Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary aggregates in the implementation of monetary policy. The Analytical Balance Sheet and monetary survey are shown to be useful tools in the analysis of monetary and credit developments in the economy. It also discusses the role of the aggregates in monetary policy implementation through the adjusted money multiplier, which explains how policy actions of the CBN influence the broad money supply. Finally, the paper attempts to estimate the Taylor-type monetary policy reaction function for Nigeria using the monetary policy rate and reserve money since December 2006 when the …

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A Framework For Oil Price Benchmark Determination: Lessons For Nigeria, Taiwo H. Sanni, Bassey D. Akpan Mar 2013

A Framework For Oil Price Benchmark Determination: Lessons For Nigeria, Taiwo H. Sanni, Bassey D. Akpan

Bullion

The main thrust of this paper is to draw lessons of experience from other selected oil producing countries. the outcome of the study is expected to help in strengthening Nigeria's oil price framework in line with international best practice. Section 2 dwells on the theoretical and literature review on oil based fiscal rule, while section 3 presents the framework for oil price benchmark determination and section 4 examines those factors capable of stimulating determination of oil price benchmark, lastly section 5 discusses some lessons of experience from Nigeria and then the conclusion.

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Nigeria 2002- 2012: High Economic Growth Rate, High Incidence Of Poverty, Why?, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Uba, I. Al-Hassan Mar 2013

Nigeria 2002- 2012: High Economic Growth Rate, High Incidence Of Poverty, Why?, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Uba, I. Al-Hassan

Bullion

Contrary to the widely held opinion that it is unthinkable that the Nigerian economy would have grown at the rate it did in the last decade and yet the incidence of poverty persisted, even grew higher, growth could actually occur without increasing employment or reducing poverty. This is possible if the economy were allowed to grow without a conscious effort to direct the direction of growth to the policymakers to make concerted efforts to smoothen the path of growth and introduce policies that will make growth pro-poor programmes is the one being currently pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria, …

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Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo Mar 2013

Fuel Subsidy And Other Unproductive Public Expenditures Removal: A Pragmatic Approach To Restructure And Transform The Nigerian Economy, Lawrence O. Akinboyo

Bullion

While the short term measures to reduce recurrent expenditure are necessary conditions for fiscal sustainability, the long term imperative is to increase revenue. Thus, efforts should be made by the fiscal authorities in Nigeria to pursue the policy of balancing of expenditure with revenue improvements. The issues of the underperformance of the capital budget should be reversed before savings from cuts in recurrent expenditure can be diverted to the financing of capital expenditure. From the analysis, we say that removal of fuel subsidy would no doubt have some social and economic hardship on the people in the short run, However, …

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Financial Inclusion Initiatives And National Economic Development, Paul N. Eluhaiwe Mar 2013

Financial Inclusion Initiatives And National Economic Development, Paul N. Eluhaiwe

Bullion

The paper present a clear understanding of the term financial inclusion, its role in economic development, measures being adopted to forge financial inclusion by selected countries and the attempt being made by Nigerian to follow suit. Section two of this paper gives an overview of the concept financial inclusion, section three highlights the difference between financial inclusion and economic development. Section four presents country experiences on financial inclusion followed by highlights of the current state of financial inclusion in Nigeria.

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Financial Inclusion In Nigeria: Measurements And Lessons, David Olu Ajakaiye, Afolabi Olowookere Mar 2013

Financial Inclusion In Nigeria: Measurements And Lessons, David Olu Ajakaiye, Afolabi Olowookere

Bullion

The operations of financial systems are crucial to people’s savings, credit, payment and risk management needs. More importantly, the inclusiveness of this system tends to benefit the poor and other disadvantaged groups in the society (Demirguckunt and Klapper, 2012). In the definition of the Centre for Financial Inclusion, “Full Financial Inclusion is a state in which all people who can use them have access to a suite of quality financial services, provided at affordable prices, in a convenient manner, and with dignity for the client” (Gardeva and Rynne, 2011). This entails building a financial system that serves as many people …

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Communicating Financial Inclusion Policy In Nigeria: The Role Of The Media, Frank Aigbogun Mar 2013

Communicating Financial Inclusion Policy In Nigeria: The Role Of The Media, Frank Aigbogun

Bullion

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has shown great foresight in the effort to ensure that greater numbers of Nigerians that are currently financially excluded are brought into the fold, through effective policy initiatives that are hinged on global best practices. For instance, in 2012 the Bank incorporated information and knowledge that will eventually lead to the formulation to amend existing regulatory frameworks, including recommendations on microfinance, mobile financial services (MFS) and agent banking. The CBN’s aim of educating and imparting skills on financial system inclusion to journalists who through their media would inform the general public about this all-important …

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Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Abdulrasheed Zubair, George Okorie, Aliyu R. Sanusi Mar 2013

Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Abdulrasheed Zubair, George Okorie, Aliyu R. Sanusi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper uses the impulse response from an estimated structural autoregressive model of the inflation process to estimate the dynamic exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices for Nigeria, using quarterly data for the period 1986-20I0. The results suggest that the exchange rate pass-through is incomplete, low and fairly slow. On impact, for instance, the elasticity of inflation to exchange rate changes is about 0.02, and it takes about eight quarters to reach its full-impact of only 0.26. We argue that given the large share of imports in Nigeria's consumption basket, this surprisingly low pass-through indicates that importers practice the so-called …

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Determinants Of Income Velocity Of Money In Nigeria, Peter N. Okafor, Tersoo S. Shitile, Danladi Osude, Chidi C. Ihediwa, Olamide H. Owolabi, Verse C. Shom, Emmanuel T. Agbadaola Mar 2013

Determinants Of Income Velocity Of Money In Nigeria, Peter N. Okafor, Tersoo S. Shitile, Danladi Osude, Chidi C. Ihediwa, Olamide H. Owolabi, Verse C. Shom, Emmanuel T. Agbadaola

Economic and Financial Review

In this paper, the authors set out to empirically investigate the determinants of income velocity of money in Nigeria, using quarterly time series from 1985:1 to 2012:4. The paper confirms a positive and statistically significant relationship between the growth of income and the velocity of money, which supports the quantity theory of money. Interest rate also has a positive and significant relationship with the income velocity of money. The financial sector development variable adopted, growth rate of stock market capitalization, has a negative relationship with the income velocity of money. The variance decomposition and impulse response results identified inflation rate …

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A Panel Analysis Of Oil Price Dynamics, Fiscal Stance And Macroeconomic Effects: The Case Of Some Selected African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Festus O. Egwaikhide Mar 2013

A Panel Analysis Of Oil Price Dynamics, Fiscal Stance And Macroeconomic Effects: The Case Of Some Selected African Countries, Joseph A. Omojolaibi, Festus O. Egwaikhide

Economic and Financial Review

The study makes use of quarterly data that spans the period from 1990:q1 to 2010:q4. A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) technique was employed to examine the impact of oil price dynamics on the economic performance of five (5) oil exporting countries in Africa. The countries are: Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria. In order to achieve this, the study used the following variables: Oil price volatility, real gross domestic product (real GDP), fiscal deficit, gross investment and money supply shocks. The impulse response functions show that of all the macroeconomic variables considered, gross investment responds more to oil price volatility …

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The Role Of Governance On Private Investment In Nigeria: A Preliminary Analysis, Kazeem B. Ajide Mar 2013

The Role Of Governance On Private Investment In Nigeria: A Preliminary Analysis, Kazeem B. Ajide

Economic and Financial Review

The paper sets out to investigate the role of governance on domestic private investment in Nigeria using Auto-Regressive Distributed Log (ARDL) Bounds Testing Approach to ascertain long-run association on an annual data covering the 1970 to 2010 period. Emanated from the estimated models are intriguing findings which showed clearly that difference exists between long and short run determinants of domestic private investment. In the former, degree of openness, previous value of inflation rates and governance indicators are the most important factors but political stability and voice and accountability indicators appear to dominate the governance indicators space as they are both …

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Protecting The Whole: A Review, Phebian N. Bewaji Mar 2013

Protecting The Whole: A Review, Phebian N. Bewaji

Economic and Financial Review

The aftermath of the 2007 global financial crisis marked a turning point in financial system regulation, generating a "renewed" interest among global regulators in the use of macroprudential policy to promote financial system stability. In this regard, the article discussed some shortcomings of traditional regulation and promoted the need for a broader and systemic approach to financial system stability using both traditional (micro-prudential) and non-traditional (macroprudential) policies. The paper further discussed the elements of macroprudential policy and tools used to mitigate risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system. A summary of the article is presented in section II and comments …

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Design, Implications And Analysis Of Household Survey: Practical Issues To Note, O. O. Akanji Mar 2013

Design, Implications And Analysis Of Household Survey: Practical Issues To Note, O. O. Akanji

Bullion

This paper is to enhance the analytic processes of survey data as generated in the established household survey framework for economic policy management and decision making. The paper is divided into four sections. Section 1 is the introduction while Section 2 is the descriptive statistics emphasizing the models that bring out the relationship between the survey variables, Section 4 concludes and proffers recommendations.

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Unemployment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Re-Examination, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit Mar 2013

Unemployment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Re-Examination, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit

Bullion

This paper investigates the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria through the implementation of the Okun’s law using the data from 1980 to 2013. The result indicates that the Okun’s law cannot be confirmed for Nigeria as the Okun’s co-efficient though properly signed was not significant at conventional level. As a result economic policies allied to demand management might not have the desired outcome of reducing unemployment in the country. Thus, the implementation of economic policy learning towards structural change and reforms in the labour market would be more appropriate to reduce unemployment in Nigeria.

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How Would Non-Interest Banking Affect The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Yusuf Adamu Mar 2013

How Would Non-Interest Banking Affect The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Yusuf Adamu

Bullion

This article espouses the effectiveness of monetary policy in a dual economic framework (interest bearing/non-interest bearing). In other words it examines how the element non-interest banking when combined with interest bearing framework affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. The use of interest based instruments can effectively be combined with the identified non-interest interest instrument to conduct monetary policy. This article recommend that Nigeria should start thinking towards a policy that takes into account the monetary aggregate instruments as the main tool for executing monetary policy.

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