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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Sovereign And Quasi-Sovereign Insolvency: Features And Resolution Options, Phebian N. Bewaji Mar 2014

Sovereign And Quasi-Sovereign Insolvency: Features And Resolution Options, Phebian N. Bewaji

Bullion

Governments like businesses, are sometimes faced with financial constraints, which impede it to carry out its functions. Thus, states, like households and firms, sometimes need to borrow to finance its activities. Unlike government revenue, expenditures are counter-cyclical and debts incurred have to be repaid at some future date, based on a repayment schedule and pre-determined terms. ln the event of a debt crisis, default or liquidity situation, unlike households and companies, the effects are more pronounced for sovereign states mainly for two reasons. This paper examines the events that trigger sovereign insolvency and likely measures of resolutions. lt acknowledges the …

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Tax Harmonization In The West African Monetary Zone: Issues And Challenges, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit Mar 2014

Tax Harmonization In The West African Monetary Zone: Issues And Challenges, Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit

Bullion

This paper explored the theoretical underpinnings for tax harmonization in a monetary union and critically perused the existing tax system in the WAMZ countries and found considerable differences in the applicable tax rates across the countries in the zone. This paper found that tax and proposes that tax harmonization should be the goal for all aspects of member states' tax system and concluded that a high degree harmonization is necessary in the indirect taxes; as such taxes may create an immediate obstacle to the free movement of goods and the free supply of services within the internal market.

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Bridging The Housing Deficit Gap In Nigeria Through The Mortgage Refinancing Scheme., Bandele A. G. Amoo, Nkereuwen I. Akpan, B. Hamma Mar 2014

Bridging The Housing Deficit Gap In Nigeria Through The Mortgage Refinancing Scheme., Bandele A. G. Amoo, Nkereuwen I. Akpan, B. Hamma

Bullion

The objective of this paper is to assess the efficacy of housing mortgages and the current mortgage refinancing company at addressing the housing deficit in Nigeria. This paper would be structured ' thus: section I is the introduction, while section 2 looks of housing provision and policy in Nigeria. Existing housing finance options in Nigeria are discussed in section 3 and the need for mortgage refinancing in Nigeria in section 4. Challenges of mortgage refinancing in Nigeria are examined in section 5, while the conclusion and recommendations are presented in section 6.

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Cost Reduction Strategies & Corporate Governance: The Need For A Paradigm Shift In Public Sector Financial Management In Nigeria, Sunny Ekakitie-Emonena Mar 2014

Cost Reduction Strategies & Corporate Governance: The Need For A Paradigm Shift In Public Sector Financial Management In Nigeria, Sunny Ekakitie-Emonena

Bullion

This study is on exposition of the imperatives of cost reduction strategies and corporate governance practices as it relates to financial malfeasance. The mechanics for a paradigm shift discussed include: cost reduction techniques, adoption of cost efficiency techniques and maintenance and reportage of accurate financial records, etc.; along with adoption of sound corporate governance policies of accountability, adherence to regulatory framework, and respect for stakeholders' interest. The study concludes by suggesting further initiatives to 'clean-up and reposition' the sector for growth & economic development. These include: effective justice system, stepping up the policy of cashless economy, entrenching protection programs for …

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Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude Mar 2014

Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the relationship between oil price and real exchange rate movement in Nigeria. Crude oil exports account for over 90 per cent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings hence, the economy may be vulnerable to instability in international oil prices, which the country as a small open economy, cannot influence. Using monthly data covering the period 2000 to 2013, this study employs GARCH process to test the relationship between oil price and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. The results of GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) suggest the persistence of volatility between real oil prices and the real exchange rate. …

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The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, A. E. Ikoku Mar 2014

The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, A. E. Ikoku

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the sensitivity of sectoral index returns on the Nigerian Stock Exchange to macroeconomic risk factors such as the spread between deposit and lending rates of banks, the slope of the yield curve, broad money supply, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and the international price of oil. We found that the Banking, Food and Beverage, and Insurance sectors were sensitive to some macroeconomic risk factors but not to others. The Oil and Gas sector was sensitive to the slope of the yield curve only. This study estimated the elasticities of macroeconomic factors in the Nigerian Stock Exchange using …

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The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, Alvan E. Ikoku Mar 2014

The Sensitivity Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectors To Macroeconomic Risk Factors, Alvan E. Ikoku

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the sensitivity of sectoral index returns on the Nigerian Stock Exchange to macroeconomic risk factors such as the spread between deposit and lending rates of banks, the slope of the yield curve, broad money supply, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation and the international price of oil. The study found that the banking, food and beverage, and insurance sectors were sensitive to some macroeconomic risk factors but not to others. The oil and gas sector was sensitive to the slope of the yield curve only. This study estimated the elasticities of macroeconomic factors in the Nigerian Stock Exchange …

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An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi Mar 2014

An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This study examines the dynamics of inflation in Nigeria, including the structural evolution as well as the direction of its movement with a view to designing appropriate policy measures to rein in the inflationary pressures. The study utilized quarterly data from 1970(1) to 2013 (4) except for Bureau de Change (BDC) premium where the duration was 1991(1) to 2013 (4) based on Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that structural factors like budget deficit, rainfall, variation in export, exchange rate premium have profound influence on movement in CPI in Nigeria during the period.

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Foreign Direct Investment Trade Nexus In Nigeria: Do Structural Breaks Matter?, S. Mohammed, B. L. Ekundayo Mar 2014

Foreign Direct Investment Trade Nexus In Nigeria: Do Structural Breaks Matter?, S. Mohammed, B. L. Ekundayo

Economic and Financial Review

ln this paper, three innovations are introduced to the literature on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDl) -trade nexus; identification and consideration of structural breaks in the underlying time series data; use of disaggregated data set that captures the oil and non-oil dichotomy of the Nigerian economy; and introduction of identified break in the short-run model. We found the existence of a co-integrating relationship between the variables amidst observed breaks in 1980 and 1992. Thus, considering structural breaks in estimations can not be downplayed as ignoring this may yield biased and inconsistent estimates. Findings revealed a one-way causal linkage between non-oil …

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Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude Mar 2014

Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the relationship between oil price and real exchange rate movement in Nigeria. Crude oil exports account for over 90 per cent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings hence, the economy may be vulnerable to instability in international oil prices, which the country as a small open economy, cannot influence. Using monthly data covering the period 2000 to 2013, this study employs GARCH process to test the relationship between oil price and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. The results of GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) suggest the persistence of volatility between real oil prices and the real exchange rate. …

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Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria Jan 2014

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

Annual Report and Financial Statements of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the year ended 31st December, 2014. In general, 2014 has been a very eventful and challenging year for the Bank, the country, and the world at large. In the course of the year, the Bank underwent significant changes in its governance composition. In 2014, the global economy witnessed considerable vulnerabilities characterized by fragile growth and weak economic outlook. Global growth recovery was modest and continued to be threatened by strong downside risks, as a result of sharp drop in commodity prices, escalating geo-political tensions, and heightening threats …

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Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade Dec 2013

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

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Domestic Credit Growth And International Capital Flows: Implications For Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria, Moses K. Tule Dec 2013

Domestic Credit Growth And International Capital Flows: Implications For Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria, Moses K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigates the effect of foreign capital flows on domestic credit growth, specifically, and its implication for monetary policy. The paper is structured into 6 sections. Section 2 provides the review of related theoretical and empirical literature. Section 3 provides stylized facts on the structure and changing structure of domestic credit and international capital flows in Nigeria while section 4 deals with capital flows and the dynamics of monetary policy in Nigeria. Section 5 provides the empirical analysis, while section 6 concludes the study.

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Managing The Downside Risks Of Surging Capital Flows On Financial Stability For Sub-Saharan African Countries, Veronica Kalema Dec 2013

Managing The Downside Risks Of Surging Capital Flows On Financial Stability For Sub-Saharan African Countries, Veronica Kalema

Economic and Financial Review

This paper discusses how capital flows has affected the sub-Saharan Africa. It also highlights the fundamental and growth prospects that are likely to continue drawing capital inflow in the future as well as the risk associated with it.

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Coping With Capital Flow Volatility: Policy Consideration For Nigeria, Mike I. Obadan Dec 2013

Coping With Capital Flow Volatility: Policy Consideration For Nigeria, Mike I. Obadan

Economic and Financial Review

Foreign capital flows have, from time to time, elicited deep concerns and debates because of their tendency to be volatile besides various macroeconomic and other related effects. Generally, the volatility of capital flows, especially in the form of huge surges pose significant risks and raise concerns about excessive exchange rate appreciation and the corresponding adverse impact on exports and growth.

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Keynote Address By Sanusi L. Sanusi, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi Dec 2013

Keynote Address By Sanusi L. Sanusi, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi

Economic and Financial Review

The keynote address of the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria at the CBN Executive seminar with the theme Global Capital Flows, Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Stability at Golden Tulip Hotel, Festac Town, Lagos, December 2-5, 2013.

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Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, Ndubuisi I. Nwokoma Dec 2013

Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, Ndubuisi I. Nwokoma

Economic and Financial Review

This article examines the impact of foreign capital flow in industrialised countries. The theoretical foundation for the proposition that capital flows can promote macroeconomic performance and stability of emerging economies was entrenched in the 2-gap model, which posits that development may be hampered by the existence of both the savings and foreign exchange gaps in the developing countries.

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Capital Flows, Capital Control And Exchange Rate Regimes, Jonathan A. Aremu Dec 2013

Capital Flows, Capital Control And Exchange Rate Regimes, Jonathan A. Aremu

Economic and Financial Review

The objective of this presentation is to examine the importance of capital controls on the flow of foreign capital under the current circumstance for the benefit of the Nigerian economy. Part II of the paper will look into some critical issues in the global capital flows by identifying the principal agents; structure and trends of the flows; effects; and policy options in managing the flows. In Part III, an attempt is made to review the historical developments of global governance of capital controls since the pre-World War I, while Part IV examines the policy challenges in capital control management strategies. …

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Policy Space For Capital Controls And Macroeconomic Stability: Lessons From Emerging Economies, Christiana E. E. Okojie Dec 2013

Policy Space For Capital Controls And Macroeconomic Stability: Lessons From Emerging Economies, Christiana E. E. Okojie

Economic and Financial Review

The paper discusses the concept of policy space and the factors influencing policy space in developing economies. It also discusses changing attitudes towards capital controls by researchers and agencies with emphasis on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, I. Nwokoma Ndubisi Dec 2013

Capital Flows And Macroeconomic Stability: Theoretical And Conceptual Considerations, I. Nwokoma Ndubisi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper discusses both conceptual and theoretical perspectives of capital flows and their macroeconomic stabilisation strands.

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Empirical Examination Of Foreign Capital Flows And Growth Nexus In Emerging Economies, Bassem Kamar Dec 2013

Empirical Examination Of Foreign Capital Flows And Growth Nexus In Emerging Economies, Bassem Kamar

Economic and Financial Review

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of foreign capital flows on economic performance in three ways. First, it analyses empirically the direct effect of capital account liberalisation on growth; second, it continues to explore the subject by testing one of the indirect effects of capital flows on economic welfare, namely their influence on competitiveness; and finally, it breaks down the issue further by decomposing capital flows into their specific elements – FDI, portfolio investments, aid, debt, remittances and tests their effect on competitiveness.

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An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams Dec 2013

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

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Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair Dec 2013

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

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Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo Dec 2013

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

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Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete Dec 2013

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

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Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya Dec 2013

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

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Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim Dec 2013

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

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A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom Dec 2013

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

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Does Gender Inequality Retard Productivity In Nigeria?: A Search For Evidence, P. D. Golit, O. Adesanya Sep 2013

Does Gender Inequality Retard Productivity In Nigeria?: A Search For Evidence, P. D. Golit, O. Adesanya

Economic and Financial Review

The paper adopted the bounds test and autoregressive distributed lag approach to evaluate the impact of gender inequality in education on real productivity in Nigeria using quarterly data from 1985 to 2011. Empirical evidence to establish the rejection of the null hypothesis of no cointegration among the variables was provided . The empirical results suggest that gender inequality in education depresses real productivity, with an output elasticity of -0.1 per cent per quarter. Further empirical evidence indicates that higher school enrolment of males enhances real productivity in Nigeria, while the influence of female school enrolment was not affirmative owing to …

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Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi Sep 2013

Government Size And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Test Of Wagner's Hypothesis, M. Y. Dogo, U. M. Okpanachi, A. A. Muhammad, C. V. Umolu, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts an empirical validation of Wagner's law in Nigeria using quarterly data for the period 1982 to 2012. The hypothesis that real income does not Granger-cause government expenditure was rejected. Adopting the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) regression techniques, the study found support for the Wagner's hypothesis in Nigeria. The analysis provided empirical evidence to support the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic activity and government expenditure in Nigeria. Overall, the results corroborated the Goffman's version of the Wagner's law in Nigeria. Thus, government needs to create fiscal space to enable deployment of more resources …

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