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Articles 361 - 390 of 1240

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Factors Explaining Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Theory And Empirical Evidence, H. E. Oaikhenan, O. S. Aigheyisi Jun 2015

Factors Explaining Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Theory And Empirical Evidence, H. E. Oaikhenan, O. S. Aigheyisi

Economic and Financial Review

The study empirically investigated the factors explaining the volatility of the bilateral exchange rate of the naira to the U.S. dollar, using data for 1970-2013 period. The EGARCH (1.1) modeling technique was used. The empirical evidence indicated that volatility of the naira exchange rate was characterised by clustering, strong leverage effect and moderate degree of persistence. It was found that increased net capital flows, greater integration of the Nigerian economy into the global market, deepening of the nation’s financial system, favourable crude oil prices, increase in the level of external reserves as well as economic growth were germane to dampening …

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Sources And Impact Of Excess Liquidity On Monetary Policy In Nigeria, S. A. Ukeje, D. Amanze, L. Akinboyo, K. Ajayi Jun 2015

Sources And Impact Of Excess Liquidity On Monetary Policy In Nigeria, S. A. Ukeje, D. Amanze, L. Akinboyo, K. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined the sources and effects of excess liquidity in the Nigerian banking system. The Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria do not hold voluntary reserve over and above the required reserve for precautionary reasons depending on their risk appetite. The practice over the years has been that DMBs constrained themselves by holding involuntary reserve which is a major concerns to the monetary authorities. The ideal situation is that banks should deploy excess reserves as loans to the public and invest in government securities, but on the contrary this is not done based on the profit maximisation tendencies of …

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Currency Substitution: Evidence From Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa Jun 2015

Currency Substitution: Evidence From Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the existence, causes and effects of currency substitution in Nigeria by estimating conventional money demand equations based on a partial adjustment and an autoregressive distributed lag models using three definitions of monetary aggregates. The behavior of the foreign currency/Naira deposit ratios have been influenced by devaluation expectations, exchange rate risks and political uncertainties during the Yar’adua-Jonathan presidency. Also, the money demand estimations reveal that short-term foreign interest rates significantly affect the demand for the Naira, suggesting strong evidence of currency substitution and the possibility of importing considerable instability in the economy.

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On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade Jun 2015

On Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria’S External Reserves, Doguwa I. Sani, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposes three short-term forecasting models for the adjusted external reserves using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2013 to May 2014. The results show that SARIMA model outperformed the other models in three to six months forecast horizon, whereas ARDL model performs better in one to two months forecast horizon. Therefore, in …

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Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti Jun 2015

Impact Of The 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis On The Stock Market In Nigeria, Peter Njiforti

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The convergence of global economy makes all countries and all markets sensible to the happenings in other countries (the contagious effect). The 2008 global financial crisis that had its origin from USA was alleged to have had varying degree of impacts on different capital markets in various countries. This paper investigated the impact of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis on the Nigerian capital market. Monthly time series data from January 2006 to December 2009. All Share Index (ASI) was used as proxy for the performance of the Nigerian Capital market, while Credit to the Private Sector (CPS), Price of Crude …

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Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja Jun 2015

Fiscal Decentralization, Economic Growth And Human Resource Development In Nigeria: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach, Elijah Udoh, Udoma Afangideh, Elias A. Udeaja

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

There is a widespread belief that fiscal decentralization is an effective tool for increasing the efficiency of public expenditures. Decentralization is expected to boost accountability and transparency in the provision of public goods for the well-being of the society. However, countervailing views maintain that little or no impact has been created at the periphery in terms of improving the welfare of the people in Nigeria. The main objective of this paper was to investigate how the decentralized system of expenditure impacted on human resource development in Nigeria. Using ARDL/Bounds Testing approach and data for the period 1980 to 2012, the …

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Queue Modelling For Successful Implementation Of The Cash-Less Policy In Nigeria, Amos N. Dauda, Kenneth N. Korve, Onuche P. Agada Jun 2015

Queue Modelling For Successful Implementation Of The Cash-Less Policy In Nigeria, Amos N. Dauda, Kenneth N. Korve, Onuche P. Agada

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In line with the realization of the vision of the cash-less policy as being fronted by the Central Bank of Nigeria, this paper seeks to solve problems of long waiting time and queue lengths of customers known to be associated with the queuing system of the Automated Teller Machine (ATM), an indispensable piece of machinery for successful implementation of the policy. To this end, the M/G/1 model, a single-channel queuing model with Poisson arrivals, General distribution service time has been applied in modelling the ATM queuing system across three commercial banks: Guarantee Trust Bank (GTB), Diamond bank and Ecobank all …

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Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad Jun 2015

Nonlinear Adjustments Between Exchange Rates And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Isaiah O. Ajibola, Ubong S. Udoette, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Rabia A. Muhammad

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the long run relationship between exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria during 1990Q1 – 2012Q4. We confirm the existence of threshold cointegration between the variables in Nigeria, as against linear cointegration. Consequently, a two-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) is estimated via maximum likelihood procedure. Model results indicate that cointegration between the variables occurs only when the equilibrium error exceeds an estimated threshold parameter of 0.52. Having partitioned the TVECM into two regimes based on the obtained threshold, we find that the error correction coefficients of the exchange rate in the two regimes are not …

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Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan Jun 2015

Investigating The Dynamics Of Bank Credit In Nigeria: The Role Of Bank Consolidation, Olorunsola E. Olowofeso, Abiodun S. Bada, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Kumafan S. Dzaan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dynamics of deposit money banks (DMB) credit and the role of consolidation in credit growth in Nigeria using vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The empirical investigation involved DMBs that have maintained a unique name and some market characteristics before and after the 2004 banking sector consolidation. Using quarterly data from 1999Q1 – 2013Q2 of the selected DMBs, the results show a positive relationship between post-consolidation credit supply growth and the real gross domestic product. The results also show that despite the onesided positive causality from credit supply to economic growth, the total contribution …

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Is Real Exchange Rate Misalignment A Leading Indicator Of Currency Crises In Nigeria?, Babatunde S. Omotosho Jun 2015

Is Real Exchange Rate Misalignment A Leading Indicator Of Currency Crises In Nigeria?, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper constructs an early warning system for currency crises in Nigeria based on selected key macroeconomic indicators. It estimates the probabilities of currency crises as a logistic function of the included variables within the framework of a logit model. Particularly, the extent to which real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) could be used as a leading indicator of currency crisis is investigated by including its lag in the model. Our findings show that the likelihood of currency crisis increases when the real exchange rate is misaligned; the exchange rate is volatile; oil price declines; debt/GDP ratio increases; and the current …

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Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo Jun 2015

Moving Average Stratification Algorithm For Strata Boundary Determination In Skewed Populations, Akeem O. Kareem, Isaac O. Oshungade, Gafar M. Oyeyemi, Adebowale O. Adejumo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Moving Average Stratification (MAS) is a new competing and simple algorithm for strata boundary determination in Stratified Sampling. It eliminates arbitrary choice of class interval associated with cumulative square root of frequency method (Dalenius and Hodges Rule (DHR) 1959) and the inherent geometric gaps created within strata by Geometric Stratification (GMS) of Gunning & Horgan (2004). It competes favorably well with DHR and GMS in terms of its precision, simplicity and speeds and therefore recommended for use in strata boundaries determination especially in skewed populations.

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Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon Jun 2015

Dollarization, Inflation And Interest Rate In Nigeria, David O. Olayungbo, Kehinde T. Ajuwon

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the relationship among dollarization, inflation and interest rate in Nigeria for the period 1986-2015Q1. It adopts inter-temporal model of money-in-utility (MIU) with an estimation technique of structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Empirical evidence shows that dollarization index has been on the increase in Nigeria since 1994, despite stable and low inflation and interest rate. Results of the cointegration show long run equilibrium among dollarization, inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship from dollarization to inflation in Nigeria. This suggests that policies that aim to reduce inflation in Nigeria must include …

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Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya Jun 2015

Estimating Bull And Bear Betas For The Nigerian Stock Market Using Logistic Smooth Threshold Model, Mohammed T. Tumala, Olaoluwa S. Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this paper, we examine the Nigerian stock market sector returns and estimate the bull and bear betas using the Logistic Smooth Threshold Market (LSTM) model. The LSTM model specification follows from the linear Constant Risk Market (CRM) model. We estimate the LSTM model for the overall sampled daily time series from 2001 to 2012 using the conditional nonlinear least squares approach. We also estimate the model for each of the All share Index (ASI) sub-samples taking the time of financial crisis (February 2008) as the break point. The results show the significant correlations of stocks returns in each market …

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Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara Jun 2015

Consumer Confidence Indicators And Economic Fluctuations In Nigeria, Adamu Ibrahim, Sani Bawa, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Chizoba E. Didigu, Sani S. Mainasara

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers, forecasters and the general public. Recent studies indicated the possibility of a slowdown in output, resulting from the pessimism of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria. The study applied the Granger Causality tests, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition to assess if CCI granger causes output growth as well as ascertain the magnitude …

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Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu Jun 2015

Do Survey-Based Expectations Mimic Inflation In Nigeria?, Ibrahim Adamu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as well as the relationship between BES indicators and selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. The study employed the modified Kaminsky-Reinhart (KLR) Signal Approach, correlation and trend analyses. The results of the modified KLR approach showed that BES inflation index predicts inflation rate only between 5 to 20 per cent threshold, …

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Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho Jun 2015

Destination Sectors And Originating Economies Of Nigeria’S Private Foreign Assets And Liabilities In 2013, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The survey of foreign assets and liabilities of enterprises in Nigeria was conducted in 2014 to determine the 2013 stock of foreign assets/liabilities of Nigerian enterprises, as well as receiving sectors and origination/destination regions. The survey collected relevant information from 740 enterprises, and analysis of survey returns indicated that the total private foreign liabilities as at end-2013 was N12, 639.27 billion up by 5.08 per cent above its level in 2012. Of this total, 96.7 per cent was in the form of foreign direct investments, while foreign portfolio investments and other capital flows accounted for 0.4 and 2.9 per cent, …

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Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette Jun 2015

Technical Notes On Balance Of Payments Compilation And Analysis: The Case Of Nigeria, Ubong S. Udoette

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses some technical issues in Balance of Payment compilation and analysis. It summarized major components of the BOP statistics, the various account balances as well as the interrelationship between them and other macroeconomic aggregates. It goes further to discuss data related issues in the compilation of Nigeria’s BOP statistics with the aim of providing better insight to future/new compilers, policy and other economic analysts.

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Interest Rate Elasticity Of Private Sector Credit In Nigeria, A. Bamidele, K. O. Oji, E. S. Smith, L. S. Jimoh Mar 2015

Interest Rate Elasticity Of Private Sector Credit In Nigeria, A. Bamidele, K. O. Oji, E. S. Smith, L. S. Jimoh

Economic and Financial Review

This study estimated the interest rate elasticity of private sector credit in Nigeria using the Vector Error Correction mechanism. The variables specified included real private sector credit. real GDP. Prime and maximum lending rates, exchange rate, 9)-day Treasury bill rate, inflation rate and all share index of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The data utilised covered the period: 1998 Q1 to 2013 Q4. Granger causality tests were performed, and the co-integration analysis of the Johansen system-wide procedure was employed. The results indicated thot private sector credit was fairly interest inelastic in terms of both maximum and prime lending rates. The estimated …

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Measuring The Depth Of Liquidity And Efficiency Of The Nigerian Capital Market, M. Tule, P. Ogiji, U. B. Ndako, U. Ujunwa, S. L. Jimoh, C. E. Lhediwa, O. O. Afiemo Mar 2015

Measuring The Depth Of Liquidity And Efficiency Of The Nigerian Capital Market, M. Tule, P. Ogiji, U. B. Ndako, U. Ujunwa, S. L. Jimoh, C. E. Lhediwa, O. O. Afiemo

Economic and Financial Review

The study developed a spectrum of indicative measures of capital market liquidity using Nigerian monthly stock market indices for the period January 2000 — June 2014. If identified four broad measures of liquidity common in the literature transaction cost, volume price and market impact measures. Based on these three sub-measures of market efficiency coefficient, variance ratio, turnover ratio and illiquidity index were developed based on data availability and other market factors specific to the Nigerian environment. The study examined the impact of capital market liquidity on asset price returns. using a vector auto regression [VAR] model which showed that the …

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Capital Flows To Nigeria: A Structural Var Analysis, K. B. Ajide Mar 2015

Capital Flows To Nigeria: A Structural Var Analysis, K. B. Ajide

Economic and Financial Review

One of the utmost desire of every developing economy nurturing the aspiration of joining the league of developed nations is to pursue a course of plan that would makes it realisable. Undeniably, different channels have been identified in the economic literature as possible ways through which growth can be achieved. Attraction of foreign capital inflows has been identified of possible channel through which sustainable growth can be easily achieved. To this end. the paper empirically unravels both the pull and push factors in determining foreign capital flows, with special reference to the Nigerian economy. An empirically tractable structural VAR model …

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Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In Nigeria, M.K. Tule, P. Ogiji, G. Okorie, D. Mbaka Mar 2015

Monetary Policy And Asset Prices In Nigeria, M.K. Tule, P. Ogiji, G. Okorie, D. Mbaka

Economic and Financial Review

This paper attempts to contribute to the debate on the linkages between monetary policy and asset prices in the woke of the recent global financial crisis. The study employs vector error correction (VEC) mode! on Nigerian weekly data from January 2007 to October 2013. A pair-wise granger causality test indicated a unidirectional causality from asset prices to monetary policy. Exchange rate at lag one was negatively related to the All Share Index. suggesting that exchange rate appreciation is likely to lead to excessive appreciation in asset prices. The results further indicated a positive relationship between financial system stability and asset …

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Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba Jan 2015

Determining The Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument For Nigeria, Solomon I. Udom, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

It is considered inapt for central banks to adjust reserve money (quantity of money) and interest rate (price of money) at the same time. Thus, necessitates the need for a choice instrument. Enough evidence abounds in microeconomic theory on the undesirability of manipulating both price and quantity simultaneously in a free market structure. The market, in line with the consensus among economists, either controls the price and allows quantity to be determined by market forces, or influence quantity, leaving prices in the hands of the forces of demand and supply. This paper is, therefore, an attempt to examine the optimal …

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Macroeconomic Trillema And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Moses K. Tule Dec 2014

Macroeconomic Trillema And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Moses K. Tule

Bullion

The paper explores how the macroeconomic trilemma influences monetary Policy choices and action in practical terms. Section 1 is the introduction, section 2 examines in greater details key conceptual issues. After it a review of the historical epochs of the trilemma, followed by contemporary country experiences in managing the trilemma. Section five examines the challenges of the trilemma in Nigeria while the last section concludes the paper.

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Financial System Stability And The Payment System., Olubukola Akinniyi Akinwunmi Dec 2014

Financial System Stability And The Payment System., Olubukola Akinniyi Akinwunmi

Bullion

This article reviews the relationship between payments system and financial stability. lt explores the risks within the payments system and how they impact on financial system stability. Emerging issues in the payments system were highlighted and implications for the financial system stability were examined. The article also proposes sets of payments system indicators that may be adopted within the financial system stability analysis and policy making.

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Rethinking Sovereign Wealth Fund In A Global Perspective - Lessons For Nigeria, Muhammad A. Abba Dec 2014

Rethinking Sovereign Wealth Fund In A Global Perspective - Lessons For Nigeria, Muhammad A. Abba

Bullion

The study explores the the global rise in the operation of sovereign wealth funds in a number of commodity and non commodity exporting counties has been of tremendous magnitude. The fact that, most, if not all the oil exporting countries of the world today have SWF clearly confirms the many benefits of having a sovereign wealth fund. Section two of the paper provides a brief review of literature. Section three discusses the rationale for SWFs with some stylized facts. The impact of SWFs on the economy is discussed in section four, section five discusses the significance of SWFs while, an …

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Basic And Computation Of Rebased Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) Nigeria's Experience, Emeka Godwin Ofili Dec 2014

Basic And Computation Of Rebased Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) Nigeria's Experience, Emeka Godwin Ofili

Bullion

The paper looks at the basic concepts in GDP compilation and the computational processes for the rebased GDP. The paper is structured into four sections. The first section deals with the introduction while section two explains some basic concepts and mathematics for GDP compilation. Section three takes a look at the GDP Rebasing while section four deals with the Recent Development from the rebasing exercise.

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Keynote Address At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria, Godwin I. Emefiele Dec 2014

Keynote Address At The Executive Seminar On Exchange Rate Policy And Economic Management In Nigeria, Godwin I. Emefiele

Economic and Financial Review

This is keynote address delivered by the Governor of Central Bank, Godwin I. Emefiele, on the executive seminar on exchange rate policy and economic development- Is there a need for paradigm shift?

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Exchange Rates, Capital Flows And Monetary Policy: Lessons From Emerging Market Economies, Biodun Adedipe Dec 2014

Exchange Rates, Capital Flows And Monetary Policy: Lessons From Emerging Market Economies, Biodun Adedipe

Economic and Financial Review

This paper proceeds in four sections as follows: section 1 is the introduction, section 2 gives a cursory summary of the literature on the 'trilemma-dilemma' that tend more towards the relevance of capital controls as an independent instrument in monetary policy irrespective of the exchange rate regime, while section 3 examines the evidence and effectiveness of the management of the process and relationships in emerging market economies (EME). Section 4 examines a country experience, while section 5 draws inferences for Nigeria and section 6 concludes with recommendations.

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Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) Rebasing And The Impact On Nigeria's Investment Environment, Bismark J. Rewane Dec 2014

Gross Domestic Product (Gdp) Rebasing And The Impact On Nigeria's Investment Environment, Bismark J. Rewane

Bullion

The paper looks at the impact of the rebasing on an important economic variable - investment. This is because investment is necessary for capital accumulation and economic growth. Specifically, this study examines the impact of GDP rebasing on Nigeria's investment environment. ln addition to this introduction section, section 2 considers GDP rebasing and the Nigerian case, section 3 is on the Nigerian Financial System Strategy (FSS) 2020, section 4 is on investment types, drivers and the Nigerian environment, section 5 offers some lessons for Nigeria and section 6 is the summary and conclusion.

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Gdp Rebasing And Implications For Fss 2020., Oluwatoyin Jokosenumi Dec 2014

Gdp Rebasing And Implications For Fss 2020., Oluwatoyin Jokosenumi

Bullion

A resilient economy founded upon a reliable financial system, is attainable upon the creation and management of a sound and progressive economic statistics and indicators such as the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and other scholars’ parameters. This paper examines the GDP rebasing and its impact on Nigeria’s investment. The paper explains the concept of GDP; the need to maintain a strategic GDP; how it is computed and / or rebased. This is then followed by examining its implications, on all economic programs.

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