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Articles 271 - 300 of 1240

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma Jun 2017

Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma

Economic and Financial Review

The paper employed statistical algorithms, factor analysis and threshold autoregressive models to address the gaps in management of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Using data spanning 2010q1 to 2017q2, the findings showed that the values of macroeconomic instability index (MII) fluctuated between 0.316 and 0.609, with a threshold of 0.461. This showed an inverse relationship between macroeconomic instability and economic growth. This framework could serve as a mechanism to gauge early warning signal of instability in Nigeria.


Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu Jun 2017

Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examined the impact of dollarisation on monetary policy in Nigeria, using monthly data spanning 2002 to 2016. The paper adopted the conventional IMF proxy for dollarisation and traced its reactions to changing monetary policy stance. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) model and interbank rate as an indicator of monetary policy stance, the results showed that the size of dollarisation could influence the outcome of monetary policy, though the impact was small. This was evident from the output equations, that inflation did not respond in the first month and responded negatively in the second month. However, from the third …


Exchange Rate Misalignment Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Stephen O.U. Uyaebo, Babatunde S. Omotosho Jun 2017

Exchange Rate Misalignment Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Stephen O.U. Uyaebo, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the dynamics of naira real exchange rate (RER) during the period 2000Q1 – 2016Q1 as well as the extent to which it deviated from its long run equilibrium path. To achieve this, we adopt the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model approach and incorporate the effects of an endogenously determined breakpoint in the cointegrating vector of the RER model. We found empirical support for the existence of a long-run relationship between RER and its determinants that is subject to a structural break in 2011Q1. Also, model results showed that exchange rate policy, productivity and interest rate differentials …


Testing For The Stability And Persistence Of The Phillips Curve For Nigeria, Chuku Chuku, Johnson Atan, Felix Obioesio Jun 2017

Testing For The Stability And Persistence Of The Phillips Curve For Nigeria, Chuku Chuku, Johnson Atan, Felix Obioesio

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, we describe the problem of testing for the stability and persistence of the Phillips curve for Nigeria when there are nonstationarities in the marginal distribution of the regressors. We test for unknown break dates using the 𝑆𝑢𝑝𝐹,𝐴𝑣𝑔𝐹 and 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐹 approaches. After reviewing the relevant asymptotic distribution theory we replicate Hansen’s fixed-regressor bootstraping scheme, which shows that Andrews’ tabulated critical values for the test statistics are oversized, and are not robust to the presence of nonstationarities in the marginal distribution of the regressors. In search of alternative bootstraping schemes, we experiment with the sieve, wild, and Rademacher schemes …


Determinants Of Nigeria's External Sector Competitiveness, O. Duke, M. Yakub, M. Nakorji, B. Gaiya, F. Isma'il, Z. Sani, S. Zimboh, T. Obiezue, O. Asuzu, V. Aliyu Jun 2017

Determinants Of Nigeria's External Sector Competitiveness, O. Duke, M. Yakub, M. Nakorji, B. Gaiya, F. Isma'il, Z. Sani, S. Zimboh, T. Obiezue, O. Asuzu, V. Aliyu

Economic and Financial Review

The study investigated the determinants of Nigeria's external competitiveness, with a view to providing sound policy prescriptions on ways to improve competitiveness. The study employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, using monthly data spanning 2008 to 2016 to determine the short- and long-run relationships among some selected macroeconomic variables. These included real effective exchange rate, exports, productivity, crude oil price, capital flow and consumer price index. The results from the short-run analysis revealed that productivity, proxied by government expenditure, and crude oil price were found to be the major determinants of external sector competitiveness in Nigeria, while CPI was …


Exchange Rate Management In Period Of Economic Uncertainty, Emmanuel U. Ukeje Mar 2017

Exchange Rate Management In Period Of Economic Uncertainty, Emmanuel U. Ukeje

Bullion

The paper examines current developments in the management of foreign exchange by the Central Bank of Nigeria in the period of economic uncertainty. It explains how the Bank has implemented different regimes of foreign exchange in order to maintain the external value of its currency as well as ensure them.


Contemporary Issues In The Nigerian Monetary Policy Landscape: Current Challenges And Strategic Options, Shamsideen Okunola Abiodun, Jamiu Aina Babatunde, Kingsley Imandojemu Mar 2017

Contemporary Issues In The Nigerian Monetary Policy Landscape: Current Challenges And Strategic Options, Shamsideen Okunola Abiodun, Jamiu Aina Babatunde, Kingsley Imandojemu

Bullion

Contemporary central bonking in Nigeria is becoming laced with intricacies, and monetary actions impacting every segment of the society. Paradoxically, monetary policy landscape is characterized by complexities and frequent changes in the monetary environment amidst relatively constant monetary instruments. The economic recession witnessed by Nigeria from Q1 to Q4 of 2016 had reinforced the renaissance of primordial and 'nativist' models of unregulated banking arrangement cum investment options via Ponzi schemes and pyramid schemes, flexible exchange rote regime, selected import forex restrictions, calls for unconventional monetary policy with special reference to negative interest rote, central bonk communication and financial stability concern. …


Savings, Net Foreign Assets And Current Accounts Dynamics In Subsaharan Africa, A. I. Adeleke, W. Ohemeng, K. Ofori-Boateng Mar 2017

Savings, Net Foreign Assets And Current Accounts Dynamics In Subsaharan Africa, A. I. Adeleke, W. Ohemeng, K. Ofori-Boateng

Economic and Financial Review

A profile of the current account balance in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) shows that many countries in the region have consistently experienced current account deficits, dwindling savings and diminishing net foreign assets. These macroeconomic variables convey important information to economic agents about the health of a nation. The relationships among these three important variables in terms of short-run and long-run dynamics are cloudy in the literature. Therefore, this study examined the long-run and short-run dynamics of savings, net foreign assets and current account balance in subSaharan Africa. Utilising panel econometric techniques with annual data from 38 countries in SSA for the …


Determination Of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves For Nigeria, M. Tule, E. Egbuna,, S. Abdusalam, A. Oduyemi Mar 2017

Determination Of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves For Nigeria, M. Tule, E. Egbuna,, S. Abdusalam, A. Oduyemi

Economic and Financial Review

The study examined the optimal level of international reserves for Nigeria that is capable of absorbing a shock similar to that experienced during the 2007/2009 Global economic crisis. Using, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation techniques and normalised Johansen cointegrated equation, and setting the maximum and minimum output losses for the entire period, the study found a positive relationship between the odds of default on sovereign debt and fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, short-term debt to reserves ratio and volatility in portfolio investments. In minimising the Bank's cost of holding reserves, the study found that the Nigerian …


Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi Mar 2017

Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi

Economic and Financial Review

The declining output growth observed from the second quarter of 2014, which led to calls for a more expansionary monetary policy despite rising inflationary pressure, necessitated a reassessment of the impact of interest rate on real output growth in Nigeria. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model and quarterly data from 2000:Q4 to 2015:Q3, the effect of monetary policy transmission (interest rate dynamics) on real output performance was estimated. Although results of the simulation analysis were somewhat mixed, those of the impulse response functions indicated that positive shocks to monetary policy rate (MPR) produced a negative and small impact on …


Cost Of Governance And Fiscal Deficit In Nigeria: Evidence From State Government Data, P. Ekeocha, A. Ikenna-Ononugbo Mar 2017

Cost Of Governance And Fiscal Deficit In Nigeria: Evidence From State Government Data, P. Ekeocha, A. Ikenna-Ononugbo

Economic and Financial Review

Fiscal deficit has remained a predominant occurrence at both the Federal and state government levels, and this has become a source of concern for economic managers. At the individual state level, a quarter of the state governments consistently ran deficit for more than six consecutive years, from the period 2007 to 2014. More importantly, the combined overall fiscal balance of the state governments has resulted frequently in deficit in the past two decades. Fiscal deficit is not bad in itself, but most of the state governments are running fiscal deficit to sustain recurrent expenses, rather than infrastructure development. Available studies …


Determining The Optimal Public Debt Threshold For Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani Bawa, Sani I. Doguwa Dec 2016

Determining The Optimal Public Debt Threshold For Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani Bawa, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data. Generally, we found empirical support for an inverted U-shape relationship between public debt types and economic growth. For total public debt as percentage of GDP, model results identified a threshold level of 73.70 per cent, while the estimated inflexion points for external and domestic debts were 49.4 and 30.9 per cent, respectively. The implication of this finding is that debt accumulation in excess of the estimated threshold levels could hurt economic growth. A retrospective examination of the country’s …


Volatility In The Nigerian Stock Market: Empirical Application Of Beta-T-Garch Variants, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Abiodun S. Bada, Victor N. Atoi Dec 2016

Volatility In The Nigerian Stock Market: Empirical Application Of Beta-T-Garch Variants, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Abiodun S. Bada, Victor N. Atoi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), Exponential GAS (EGAS) and Asymmetric Exponential GAS (AEGAS) are new classes of volatility models that simultaneously account for jumps and asymmetry. Using these models, we estimate the dynamic pattern of the Nigeria All Share Index (ASI) from January 3, 2006 to July 22, 2014. Parameter estimates of the models were obtained using the Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) approach, and in-sample conditional volatility forecasts from each of the models were evaluated using the minimum loss function approach. Among the classical volatility models, the initial results detected IGARCH-t as the best model for predicting volatility in the …


The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo Dec 2016

The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sought to identify the traditional and institutional inflation variables responsible for inflation phenomenon and the magnitude of the contribution of the identified variables to the rise in general price level. Secondary data on key macroeconomic variables in the economy from 1974 to 2013 were used. The data collected were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The results showed that there existed a longrun co-movement among the variables. Also, the ordinary least squares estimate showed that Real Effective Exchange Rate, Lagged Consumer Price Index, Real Broad Money and Real Profits were statistically significant in influencing Consumer …


A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue Dec 2016

A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

We present in this paper an alternative approach to determining and predicting the fluctuations in the daily prices and stock returns of a first-generation bank in the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). The approach uses a three-state Markov to estimate the expected duration of the asset returns in states classified as rising (positive) (𝑅𝑘), falling (negative) state (𝑅𝑚) or stable (zero) state (𝑅𝑙). Related goodness-of-fit tests show that the Markov model fits the data adequately with an error rate of approximately 0.1. The maximum expected lengths of successively being in either positive or negative regime is 4 days, while that of …


Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar Dec 2016

Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of fiscal policy shocks on output and unemployment in Nigeria under the Keynesian framework by employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to analyse annual series on the relevant variables for the period 1981-2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root result shows all variables to be integrated of order one and Johansen Cointegration test confirms the presence of long run association among the variables. Findings of the SVAR model shows shock in public expenditure as having a positive long- lasting effect on output. Revenue shock was found to exert a positive effect (lower …


On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu Dec 2016

On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, we developed an inference procedure for the neural network using the bootstrap approach, and applied it to the market efficiency of the Nigerian exchange rate. Data used are exchange rate values from 2001 to 2015. We conducted a test on the market efficiency hypothesis, including test for relevance of individual and joint network inputs using method of partial derivative. The network architecture used is the multilayer perceptron. A valid statistical inference based on the estimated Statistical Neural Network was conducted using a well-known statistical resampling technique. Test of hypothesis that input or groups of inputs are relevant …


Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu Dec 2016

Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examined the application of nonlinear Smooth Transition-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ST-GARCH) model of Hagerud on prices of banks’ shares in Nigeria. The methodology is informed by the failure of the conventional GARCH model to capture the asymmetric properties of the banks’ daily share prices. The asymmetry and non-linearity in the model dynamics make it useful for generating nonlinear conditional variance series. From the empirical analysis, we obtained the conditional volatility of each bank’s share price return. The highest volatility persistence was observed in Bank 6, while Bank 12 had the least volatility. Evidently, about 25% of the investigated …


Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe Dec 2016

Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The exchange rate between the Naira and other currencies has continued to witness variability with depreciation. This variability makes it difficult to predict returns. Against this background, this paper examines the naira exchange rate vis-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous variables in modelling volatility is considered using both the GARCH (1,1) and its asymmetric variants. Three of the four returns series showed heteroscedasticity. The results of the fitted models indicate that the majority of the parameters are significant and that volatility is quite persistent. Furthermore, the results of the asymmetric model indicate different impacts for both negative and …


The Banking System, Manufacturing Sector And Sustainable Economic Development., Risikat S. Oladoyin Dauda Sep 2016

The Banking System, Manufacturing Sector And Sustainable Economic Development., Risikat S. Oladoyin Dauda

Bullion

The paper is structured into five sections. Section one presents the introduction, while section two presents conceptual and theoretical issues. Section three captures issues in Nigeria's manufacturing sector, Section four presents a brief overview on the performance and financial intermediation roles of Nigeria's banking industry vis-a-vis the manufacturing sector, Section five and six contains the challenges and prospect of promoting banking system intermediary services in the manufacturing sector for sustainable development and concludes the paper respectively.


Overview Of Non-Oil Sector In Nigeria., Uwatt B. Uwatt Sep 2016

Overview Of Non-Oil Sector In Nigeria., Uwatt B. Uwatt

Bullion

This paper is to enhance the understanding of the non-oil sector in Nigeria, The underlying need is the emphasis on why the sector should be embraced as the new economic bride, not only by the government, but by oil and sundry, to fast-track economic recovery and enhance sustainable growth.


Cbn Real Sector Financing For Inclusive Growth And Economic Development., Mudashiru A. Olaitan Sep 2016

Cbn Real Sector Financing For Inclusive Growth And Economic Development., Mudashiru A. Olaitan

Bullion

lt is important to note that no economy can grow and improve the living standard of its population without a vibrant real sector. Consequently, the Central Bank of Nigeria intervenes in the real sector to stimulate flow of finance and boost productivity and employment generation.


Promoting Non-Oil Sector Financing In Nigeria: The Role Of The Media., Ugochukwu A. Okoroafor Sep 2016

Promoting Non-Oil Sector Financing In Nigeria: The Role Of The Media., Ugochukwu A. Okoroafor

Bullion

ln the case of Nigeria, the dominance of earnings from crude oil as a source of external revenue become pronounced in the wake of the positive oil shocks of the 1970s as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to effectively exert its powers as a cartel. In the light of a few developments in the sector, it is clear that the oil sector can no longer power the economy of Nigeria. As a result the non-oil and the private sector are required to ensure that Nigeria develops well-rounded and sustainable economic outcomes.


Technology Innovations And The Financial Services Industry., Olubukola Akinniyi Akinwunmi Sep 2016

Technology Innovations And The Financial Services Industry., Olubukola Akinniyi Akinwunmi

Bullion

This article explores the future of the financial services industry in the context of new technologies. Technological innovations were reviewed and likely implications for the industry were highlighted. The article suggests that a symbiotic relationship among new and incumbent financial services providers will benefit the industry. Since technology is re-defining the financial services industry and the global financial system as undergone transformation in the last couple of decades.


Entrepreneurial Orientation: A Global Asset For National Development., Sunday Alewo Omale, Kate Obianuju Chima Sep 2016

Entrepreneurial Orientation: A Global Asset For National Development., Sunday Alewo Omale, Kate Obianuju Chima

Bullion

This paper appraised the outcome of Entrepreneurial Orientation on national development . Entrepreneurial orientation (EO) deals with the level in which nations or firms strategically educate its citizens or members to promote entrepreneurial culture to gain economic benefits. EO entails dimensions of innovation, proactiveness and risk taking. It is held that entrepreneurial orientation is required for a successful national development. innovativeness ls the predisposition to engage in creativity and experimentation through the introduction of new products/ services as well as technological leadership and advancement. To drive home the aims of this investigation, relevant data were sourced from management journals, bulletin …


Financing Agriculture For Sustainable Economic Development, Grace Ofure Evbuomwan Sep 2016

Financing Agriculture For Sustainable Economic Development, Grace Ofure Evbuomwan

Bullion

Nigeria's agriculture is diverse. presenting various opportunities. lt includes four sub-sectors, namely; crop, livestock, fishery and forestry. The crop sub-sector accounts for about 90.0 per cent of agricultural production in Nigeria, followed by the livestock sub-sector which contributes about 7.0 per cent. Fishing activities contribute about 2.0 per cent and forestry activities account for about 1.0 per cent. However, Nigeria remains a food-deficit country blessed as it is with abundant agro-ecological resources and diversity. As reported by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the number of people undernourished has been on the increase, from 8.7 per …


2015 Statistical Bulletin: Domestic Production, Consumption And Prices, Central Bank Of Nigeria Jul 2016

2015 Statistical Bulletin: Domestic Production, Consumption And Prices, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Statistics of Gross Domestic Product and Expenditure at current Purchaser's prices for the year 2015.


Financial Soundness Indicators And Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Investigation Of The Dynamic Linkages, Baba N. Yaaba Jun 2016

Financial Soundness Indicators And Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Investigation Of The Dynamic Linkages, Baba N. Yaaba

Bullion

The Financial soundness indicators compiled for Nigeria within the context of IMFs Financial Sector Assessment Programme has been proven to be capable of pre-empting financial crisis. Analysts, however, considered it imperative to further explore the characteristics of the indicators, particularly their relationship with other macroeconomic variables to enhance the understanding of its dynamics so as to improve on its usefulness. This study, as a maiden attempt, applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the dynamic linkages between the indicators and selected macroeconomic variables covering the period 2007 Q1 to 2015 Q4. The results indicate that macroeconomic events dictate the …


A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Model Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In Nigeria, M. A. Adebiyi Dr, C. N. Mordi Dr Jun 2016

A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Model Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In Nigeria, M. A. Adebiyi Dr, C. N. Mordi Dr

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper employed a Bayesian framework of DSGE model to estimate the pass-through effect of exchange rate to domestic inflation in Nigeria, using quarterly data for the period 1990 to 2011. The response of inflation rate to exchange rate shocks was found to be positive and statistically significant in the short-run. The pass-through was small and incomplete with almost zero in quarter 1 (0.09), rose to 0.18 in quarter 2 and declined to 0.07 and 0.01 in quarters 3 and 4, respectively. These findings were lower than those obtained elsewhere by other authors. The low pass-through reported in this study …


Monetary Policy And Financing Real Sector Growth In Nigeria., Moses K. Tule Jun 2016

Monetary Policy And Financing Real Sector Growth In Nigeria., Moses K. Tule

Bullion

The study examines CBN's real sector financing initiatives and implication for real sector growth and economic development. Section 2 discusses selected CBN real sector financing initiatives. Section 3 is the implications of the initiatives for growth and economic management. Section 4 discusses challenges of implementing the policies while section 5 concludes the paper and presents suggestions on the way forward.