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Articles 241 - 270 of 1240
Full-Text Articles in Economics
Modeling Volatility Persistence And Asymmetry With Exogenous Breaks In The Nigerian Stock Returns, David A. Kuhe
Modeling Volatility Persistence And Asymmetry With Exogenous Breaks In The Nigerian Stock Returns, David A. Kuhe
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examines the volatility persistence and asymmetry with exogenous breaks in Nigerian stock market. The study utilizes daily closing quotations of stock prices from the Nigerian stock exchange for the period 3rd July, 1999 to 12th June, 2017. Standard symmetric GARCH (1,1), asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1,1) models with and without structural breaks were employed to measure shocks persistence and leverage effects in the presence of varying distributional assumptions. The empirical findings showed high persistence of shocks in the return series for the estimated models. However, the study found significant reduction in shocks persistence when structural breaks were …
Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria Today: Issues In Stagflation And Recession, Moses K. Tule
Monetary Policy Management In Nigeria Today: Issues In Stagflation And Recession, Moses K. Tule
Bullion
This article explore the rare and challenging economic problem faced by Nigeria refers to as stagflation. i.e. a condition characterized by the co-existence of declining growth rates along with high unemployment and inflation rates. These negative economic development have raised major concern for policy makers and other economic agents because of the adverse effects on investment, financial stability and livelihood.
Premium Motor Spirit (Pms) Subsidy Removal : Its Potential Impacts For The Nigerian Economy, Bandele A. G. Amoo, Williams J. Kanya, Margaret J. Hilili, Al-Hassan I. Uba
Premium Motor Spirit (Pms) Subsidy Removal : Its Potential Impacts For The Nigerian Economy, Bandele A. G. Amoo, Williams J. Kanya, Margaret J. Hilili, Al-Hassan I. Uba
Bullion
Subsidy payments on premium motor spirit (PMS) in Nigeria have impacted significantly on revenue of the government over the years. The tempo has been on the upward trend over time, resulting in fiscal concerns necessitating immediate government attention. The economy suffered operational challenges, leading to loss of huge revenue. several suggestion on how to address the issue have been provided by various governments over the years, but a permanent solution to the problem are yet to be achieved. thus, this paper reviews the issues and found that, beyond the revenue concern to the government, importing PMS into Nigeria takes about …
Enhancing Institutional Lending To The Agricultural Sector By Derisking The Value Chain: The Case Of Nigerian Incentive Based Risk Sharing System For Agricultural Lending (Nirsal), Ishaku Mikloda Polycarp
Enhancing Institutional Lending To The Agricultural Sector By Derisking The Value Chain: The Case Of Nigerian Incentive Based Risk Sharing System For Agricultural Lending (Nirsal), Ishaku Mikloda Polycarp
Bullion
There is no gainsaying that agriculture is one of the most important sectors in the Nigerian economy as it employs at least 60% of Nigerians and contributes up to 23.11% of the country's GDP. The performance of the agricultural sector has not been encouraging over the years, resulting in the importation of over N 1.0 trillion in wheat, rice, sugar and fish. Policy responses towards channeling financial resources to the agricultural sector in Nigeria have a long history through government and CBN sponsored programmes. Among CBN intervention schemes is the Nigeria Incentive-based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL). It …
Geopolitical Tensions, Crude Oil Price And Output Dynamics: Implications For Fiscal Governance In Nigeria, Harrison O. Okafor
Geopolitical Tensions, Crude Oil Price And Output Dynamics: Implications For Fiscal Governance In Nigeria, Harrison O. Okafor
Bullion
This paper examined the linkages between geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices and oil output dynamics vis-a-vis the implication for fiscal governance in Nigeria. within a strategic game theoretical framework, anchored on moral hazard assumptions (incentive problem) and applying VAR model, findings indicate that geopolitical tensions affects Nigeria's bonny light crude oil price and export. Results also revealed that the timing and impact of geopolitical tensions last fairly long thus, could affect fiscal revenue and economic governance in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper recommends a complete diversification of the economy from oil will strengthen the nation's fiscal space and development planning.
Understanding Economic Recession, The Role And Limitations Of Monetary Policy In Recovery, Mustapha Adewale Adigun
Understanding Economic Recession, The Role And Limitations Of Monetary Policy In Recovery, Mustapha Adewale Adigun
Bullion
This article examines the causes and effect of economic recession, highlights the role of monetary policy in economic recovery from a recession and proposes appropriate policy options to address the menace of recession with a view to promote economic recovery. Following the introduction, section 2 addresses the definition, causes, features and brief history, section 3 discuss recent economic recession in Nigeria, section 4 highlights the role of monetary policy and section 5 concludes the paper.
Fintech As A Tool For Promoting Financial Inclusion And Economic Development In Nigeria, Mayowa O. Agbelusi
Fintech As A Tool For Promoting Financial Inclusion And Economic Development In Nigeria, Mayowa O. Agbelusi
Bullion
In Nigeria, 67% of the population lives below the poverty line. Access to basic financial services can make a significant difference in reducing poverty and financial technology has been used to enhance the provision of financial services to the poor and unbanked in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper seeks to highlight the nexus between financial inclusion and financial technology as well as how it can help reduce poverty in Nigeria.
The Impact Of Private Sector Credit On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Ganiyu B.A. Amoo, Matthew I. Eboreime, Yusuf Adamu, Maximillian C. Belonwu
The Impact Of Private Sector Credit On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Ganiyu B.A. Amoo, Matthew I. Eboreime, Yusuf Adamu, Maximillian C. Belonwu
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper determines empirically the local conditions and policy environment that influence the absorptive capacity of credit in the Nigerian economy for the period 1993:Q1 to 2013:Q4 using fully modified least squares. Findings show that credit is growth-enhancing, even when trade openness, monetary policy, investment climate and infrastructure are low. Also, the composite local condition index analysis revealed that private sector credit increased economic growth when domestic or local conditions were favourable and the absorptive capacity of the domestic economy for credit was estimated at 29% of the GDP in 2013. These results suggest that there is ample room for …
Forecasting The Volatilities Of The Nigeria Stock Market Prices, Sikiru O. Ibrahim
Forecasting The Volatilities Of The Nigeria Stock Market Prices, Sikiru O. Ibrahim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The objective of this work is to assess and forecast the volatilities of prices on the Nigeria Stock Exchange. The ARCH family (ARCH, GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH and PGARCH) and ARIMA models are used to assess and forecast volatilities in prices on the Nigeria stock market. The EGARCH model is found to be the most efficient for forecasting volatilities and has the capability to show the asymmetric effect. The assessment of volatilities in prices for 1985 to 2014 shows clustering, over the years. The forecasting performance shows the volatility in the Nigeria stock market to be on the increase for the …
Determinants Of Fdi And Fpi Volatility: An E-Garch Approach, Philip I. Nwosa, Omolade Adeleke
Determinants Of Fdi And Fpi Volatility: An E-Garch Approach, Philip I. Nwosa, Omolade Adeleke
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study examined the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria. The study used annual data covering the periods 1986 to 2016 and the EGARCH approach was employed. The study observed that trade openness and world GDP were the significant determinants of FDI volatility, while domestic interest rate and stock market capitalization were significant determinants of FPI volatility in Nigeria. Other variables were insignificant in influencing volatility in FDI and FPI. Consequently, the study recommends the need for the prudent management of these determinants (with particular reference to indigenous variables) to ensure reduced …
Determinants Of Financial Inclusion In Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Does Institutional Infrastructure Matter?, Kazeem B. Ajide
Determinants Of Financial Inclusion In Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Does Institutional Infrastructure Matter?, Kazeem B. Ajide
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper examines the determinants of financial inclusion by specially accounting for the role of institutions in a panel of eighteen (18) subSaharan Africa (SSA) countries using a dynamic system of Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM). The emanated findings consistently stress the importance of institutions together with other control variables like GDP per capita, inflation, bank concentration and z-score as key drivers of FI. In the final analysis, the paper emphasizes the importance of using dimension by dimension indicators of governance as well as a composite governance index instead of relying solely on the latter as a basis of informing …
On The Properties Of The Weibull-Burr Iii Distribution And Its Application To Uncensored And Censored Survival Data, Aliyu Yakubu, Sani I. Doguwa
On The Properties Of The Weibull-Burr Iii Distribution And Its Application To Uncensored And Censored Survival Data, Aliyu Yakubu, Sani I. Doguwa
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
Twelve different families of cumulative distributions that are used to model real life data were introduced by Burr (1942). Burr III distribution is among these families of cumulative distributions. In this work, a four-parameter distribution is introduced to model real life scenarios called Weibull-Burr III distribution. The limiting behavior of the proposed distribution, hazard function, moments, skewness, kurtosis and quantile function is investigated; order statistics and entropy are also derived. The method of Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique was used in estimating the parameters of the proposed distribution. To prove the flexibility and performance of the distribution and Weibull-G family of …
The Consumption-Oriented Capital Asset Pricing Model In The Nigerian Stock Exchange, Abidemi C. Adegboye
The Consumption-Oriented Capital Asset Pricing Model In The Nigerian Stock Exchange, Abidemi C. Adegboye
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
In this study, the Consumption-oriented Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) is tested for Nigeria by considering returns on investments in the Nigerian Stock Exchange market and other financial assets for the period 1993: Q1 to 2016:Q4. Three tests are conducted. The first test examines forecast performance of excess returns for the selected portfolios in predicting future consumption; the second test estimates the consumption betas for the set of assets using two alternative formulations of the CCAPM; and the third test included consumption growth variable in a multifactor risk analysis to compare with the basic CAPM formulations. The empirical results indicates …
An Assessment Of The Impact Of Banking Reforms On Economic Growth And Bank Performance In Nigeria, Matthew O. Gidigbi
An Assessment Of The Impact Of Banking Reforms On Economic Growth And Bank Performance In Nigeria, Matthew O. Gidigbi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study assesses the impact of banking reforms on banks’ performance and economic growth for the period 1981 to 2015 by fitting an ANOVA model into Stepwise Regression. Using dummy variables to isolate reform periods, results show that banking reforms contribute positively to economic growth, especially in the period 1999 to 2004. Also, banking reforms are found to contribute negatively to banks’ performance, following the 1993 reforms. The study confirms that banking system reforms in Nigeria have dual impact on the economy and banks’ performance. The banking reforms are capable of promoting growth in the economy. Thus, the study recommends …
An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk
An Application Of Box-Jenkins Approach In Forecasting Nigerian Crude Oil Prices., Bashir Umar Faruk
Bullion
Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.
Cbn Real Sector Financing For Inclusive Growth And Economic Development., Mudashiru A. Olaitan
Cbn Real Sector Financing For Inclusive Growth And Economic Development., Mudashiru A. Olaitan
Bullion
The fall in crude oil in the international market has expose Nigeria's vulnerability to external shocks and overdependence on a mono-product economy thereby presenting the opportunity for Nigeria to diversify its economy away from oil into agriculture, manufacturing services and other non-oil sectors. This paper examines the need to support key sectors that are drivers of growth and to also upscale its developmental finance initiatives targeted at economic growth, deepening of deepening of credit delivery to the real sector. The paper highlighted focal areas and the interventions by CBN in these areas to include Agricultural sector; Infrastructure; Manufacturing sector; MSMEs …
Deficit Financing, Price And Economic Stability In Nigeria: A Bound Testing Approach., Ali Danjuma Umaru
Deficit Financing, Price And Economic Stability In Nigeria: A Bound Testing Approach., Ali Danjuma Umaru
Bullion
This research work empirically examines the impact of deficits finance on price and economic stability in Nigeria using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)/Bound testing approach from 1980-2016. Total deficit financed externally and a disaggregated domestic source which includes CBN, Deposit Money Banks and Non-Bank Public were used as proxies for deficit financing while inflation rates and GDP were captured for price and economic stability respectively. The bound testing analysis which was carried out in a two differently specified models show no cointegration between deficit finance and inflation, while that of deficit finance and economic stability nexus reveals the existence of a …
Fss 2020 Financial Markets Programme: Progress So Far, Charles Ohamara
Fss 2020 Financial Markets Programme: Progress So Far, Charles Ohamara
Bullion
The Financial System Strategy (FSS) 2020 is a national reform program aimed at developing and transforming Nigeria's financial sector into a growth catalyst to fast track the achievement of the Vision 20:2020 and engineer Nigeria's evolution into on International Financial Centre. The strategic objectives of FSS2020 are to strengthen and deepen the domestic financial markets, enhance the integration of domestic financial markets with the external financial markets and supporting the reals sector. To attain these objectives, the key regulators of the Nigerian financial system come together under the leadership of the Central Bank of Nigeria and crafted the vision to …
Msme Sector: The New Paradigm For Nigeria's Economic Development, Adewale M. Mustapha
Msme Sector: The New Paradigm For Nigeria's Economic Development, Adewale M. Mustapha
Bullion
MSMEs play a major role in most economies, especially in developing countries. This paper examines the opportunity provided by FSS2020 to enhance development of the MSME sector in Nigeria. The paper begins by examining the concept of FSS2O2O strategy for the MSME sector with specific focus on the six (6) Strategic Objectives and three (3) Transformational Programs to drive the development of the sector. These strategic objectives and the respective initiatives have a high multiplier effect on the entire Nigeria financial system. The six objectives ore: Advocate and Work with the government to Drive SME development, 2. Promote Financial Reporting …
Nigeria's Experience With Monetary Sterilisation (2000-2016)., Moses K. Tule, Usman M. Okpanachi, Imam S. Z., Afiemo O. O.
Nigeria's Experience With Monetary Sterilisation (2000-2016)., Moses K. Tule, Usman M. Okpanachi, Imam S. Z., Afiemo O. O.
Bullion
This study attempts to estimate the extent of sterilisation undertaken by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during the period from 2000 to 2016. The approach used in this study involved construction of a monetary sterilisation index by measuring the rate of change in domestic asset (net) with respect to the change in foreign asset (net). The index expands the menu of available indicators which may be considered by monetary policy makers in in evaluating policy response to changing economic conditions. The paper after its introduction reviews the literature on monetary sterilization is aimed at ensuring that the balance sheet …
Transforming The Insurance Sector In Nigeriain Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Chris O. Muo
Transforming The Insurance Sector In Nigeriain Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Chris O. Muo
Bullion
The National lnsurance Commission (NAICOM) is the statutory Regulatory body of insurance business created to ensure the effective administration, supervision and regulation of insurance business and regulate transactions between insurers and reinsurers within and outside Nigeria. FSS 2020 Insurance Sector, in collaboration with NAICOM aims to deepen the insurance market; ensure lnsurance credibility and protect policy holders; Embed governance and risk management framework for the lnsurance Companies; Enhance access to finance (financial inclusion) with business development support and new products; and risk-based capitalization of lnsurance Companies.
Nigeria's Power Sector Roadmap: Policy Perspectives And Prospects, Bandele A. G. Amoo, O. M. Adebayo, Derek Ibeagha
Nigeria's Power Sector Roadmap: Policy Perspectives And Prospects, Bandele A. G. Amoo, O. M. Adebayo, Derek Ibeagha
Bullion
Various strategies have been employed over the years by the Government to boost power in the country. These strategies have been hinged on policies, reforms and roadmaps, including the 2005 Electric Power Sector Reform Act, the Roadmap for Power Sector Reform 2010 and the current Roadmap for Change. A perfunctory look at previous reforms has resulted in significant progress, including unbundling and privatizing the long-standing government-owned monopoly in the power sector. This paper takes a comprehensive assessment of the Roadmap of Change comparing it to previous policies, isolating policy perspectives, prospects and challenges facing it. It also gleans lessons from …
Transforming The Mortgage Sub-Sector Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Patrick E. Aririguzo
Transforming The Mortgage Sub-Sector Using The Fss 2020 Platform, Patrick E. Aririguzo
Bullion
This paper examines the Mortgage sector of FSS2020 Strategy document which falls within the category of the drivers of the FSS2020 Strategy implementation blueprint. FSS2020 Mortgage: Vision and Mission. The paper further explores the Strategic Objectives of FSS2020 Mortgage Sector and the Transformational Programmes which includes: Ml - Establish a secondary mortgage market; M2 - Attract affordable international credit to fund affordable housing programmes; M3 - Advocate for mortgage ready and affordable housing. Three Transformational Programmes were designed to support the realization of the three objectives of the Mortgage Sector namely: TPl - Establishment of Mortgage Refinancing Companies (MRC) TP2 …
Improving Accuracy With Forecast Combination: The Case Of Inflation And Currency In Circulation In Nigeria, Alvan E. Ikoku, Chukwunonso T. Okany
Improving Accuracy With Forecast Combination: The Case Of Inflation And Currency In Circulation In Nigeria, Alvan E. Ikoku, Chukwunonso T. Okany
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study shows how the application of forecast combination improves the accuracy of forecasts of economic variables. Using data from January 2009 to December 2014 on the Nigerian inflation rate, and forecasts of currency in circulation (see Ikoku, (2014)) as examples, we find that by combining forecasts of both variables using the regressionbased method, the mean absolute percent errors of the combined forecasts were lower than the forecast errors from the individual models of the variables.
Testing Validity Of Observed Indicators Of Local Content Policy In Nigeria: Evidence From Four-Factor Measurement Model, Abdulkabir N. Adedeji, Muhammad O. Lawan, Shaufiq F. Sidique
Testing Validity Of Observed Indicators Of Local Content Policy In Nigeria: Evidence From Four-Factor Measurement Model, Abdulkabir N. Adedeji, Muhammad O. Lawan, Shaufiq F. Sidique
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper tests validity property of the indicators that measured local content policy (LCP) in Nigeria’s oil sector. Survey data were obtained for the test, using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) method. The results obtained from a four-factor measurement model confirmed the LCP indicators to be valid. This reflects that the policy can achieve its developmental targets on local value creation with particular reference to increased local firms’ participation, backward linkages, and job creation in Nigeria’s oil sector. Hence, government should focus on effective implementation and compliance of the policy rather than “labour clause” as contained in the local content Act. …
The Impact Of Trade On Economic Growth In Ecowas Countries: Evidence From Panel Data, Milton Iyoha, Ajan Okim
The Impact Of Trade On Economic Growth In Ecowas Countries: Evidence From Panel Data, Milton Iyoha, Ajan Okim
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The poor economic performance and growth of ECOWAS economies have become so challenging and this has necessitated research and discussions. Experts have argued that the relationship between trade and economic growth in the ECOWAS region is unclear and the question of whether trade promotes growth and development is controversial. In this paper, an attempt is made to analyse the impact of trade on economic growth both from a theoretical perspective and using econometric evidence from ECOWAS countries. In particular, an attempt is made to econometrically test the hypothesis of a positive relationship between trade and growth in ECOWAS countries during …
An Application Of Asymmetric Garch Models On Volatility Of Banks Equity In Nigeria’S Stock Market, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Uchenna C. Ekejiuba
An Application Of Asymmetric Garch Models On Volatility Of Banks Equity In Nigeria’S Stock Market, Omorogbe J. Asemota, Uchenna C. Ekejiuba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper examines the volatility of banks equity weekly returns for six banks (coded B1 to B6) using GARCH models. Results reveal the presence of ARCH effect in B2 and B3 equity returns. In addition, the estimated models could not find evidence of leverage effect. On evaluating the estimated models using standard criteria, EGARCH (1, 1) and CGARCH (1, 1) model in Student’s t-distribution are adjudged the best volatility models for B2 and B3 respectively. The study recommends that in modelling stock market volatility, variants of GARCH models and alternative error distribution should be considered for robustness of results. We …
Modelling Inflation Rate Volatility In Nigeria With Structural Breaks, Ismail O. Fasanya, Oluwasegun B. Adekoya
Modelling Inflation Rate Volatility In Nigeria With Structural Breaks, Ismail O. Fasanya, Oluwasegun B. Adekoya
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study compares the performance of GARCH-Type models in modelling inflation volatility in Nigeria covering the period 1995M01 to 2016M10. In the paper, we provide two main innovations: (i) we analyze inflation rate of two pronounced consumer prices indices namely headline and core consumer price indices using the Augmented DickeyFuller break point test which allow for structural breaks in the data series; and (ii) the method is modified to include both symmetric and asymmetric volatility models. The empirical examination observes evidence of volatility persistence in the consumer price indices, but only headline is consistent with leverage effects. Thus, applying one-modelfits-all …
Agricultural Sector Credit And Output Relationship In Nigeria: Evidence From Nonlinear Ardl1, Oloronsola E. Olowofeso, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Ochoche Abraham
Agricultural Sector Credit And Output Relationship In Nigeria: Evidence From Nonlinear Ardl1, Oloronsola E. Olowofeso, Adeyemi A. Adeboye, Valli T. Adejo, Kufre J. Bassey, Ochoche Abraham
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This paper investigates the relationship between credit to agriculture and agricultural output in Nigeria by means of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model using a time series data from 1992Q1 to 2015Q4. Results show no evidence of asymmetry in the impact of credit to output growth in the agricultural sector (positive and negative changes) in the short-run, but different equilibrium relationships exist in the long-run. The dynamic adjustments show that the cumulative agricultural output growth is mostly attracted by the impact of the positive changes in credit to agriculture with a lag of four quarters of the prediction horizon. This …
Assessing Systemic Risk In The Nigerian Interbank Money Market, M. Nakorji, P. Ekeocha, C. Nwosu, P. Obikaonu
Assessing Systemic Risk In The Nigerian Interbank Money Market, M. Nakorji, P. Ekeocha, C. Nwosu, P. Obikaonu
Economic and Financial Review
The interbank market is an important platform for strengthening financial integration. It also represents a medium for risk sharing among banks through the linkages and common exposures. Exposure between banks leads to a direct asset relation through borrowing from each other at the interbank market while banks are associated indirectly through ownership and sharing of similar portfolio exposures, that connects them, through a web of transaction network. The paper analysed the systemic risk implied in the Nigerian interbank network, based on various network measures using data on individual banks' bilateral exposures. The findings showed that few banks featured prominently in …