Economics Commons^™

Bitcoin And South African Stock Market Returns During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Test Of The Safe-Haven Hypothesis, Akaninyene U. Udom, Sopuru W. Nnamani

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper tests the safe-haven property of Bitcoin for South African stocks using Full and Diagonal BEKK-GARCH models. The study uses the Johannesburg stock exchange Top40 index, and bitcoin returns data before COVID-19 (August 2018 to December 2019) and during COVID-19 (January 2020 to June 2021). The results show that bitcoin cannot be considered as safe-haven for stocks in South Africa since it is weakly correlated with stock and had a high volatility during the Pandemic. Therefore, the safe-haven hypothesis of bitcoin on South African stocks is not true for the period under study. The policy implication is that bitcoin …

Generalized Ratio-Product Cum Regression Variance Estimator In Two-Phase Sampling, Isah Muhammad

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study develops a flexible and efficient generalized ratio-product cum regression type estimator of population variance utilizing auxiliary variable in two-phase sampling that incorporates the properties of ratio-type and product-type estimators. The properties of the estimator were derived using first order approximation. The theoretical conditions under which the precision and the flexibility of the estimator is better than some classical estimators are also provided. Empirical evidence from five real datasets suggests that the proposed estimator outperforms the classical variance, ratio variance, product, and exponential ratio type estimators in terms of precision and efficiency. The estimator can be utilized to provide …

Modelling The Naira Exchange Rate Dependence Using Static And Time-Varying Copula, Kabir Katata

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the dependence structure of different currencies versus the Nigerian Naira using constant and time-varying copula. Daily Naira/USD, Naira/Yuan, Naira/Pound, and Naira/Euro exchange rates from 23 December 2011 to 12 May 2020 were utilised. We fitted eight constant and time-varying copula families using the exchange rate standardised residuals. The study finds that the Naira exchange rate may be estimated with student t-copula, Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC), or Rotated Gumbel copula models and Autoregressive (AR)– Glosten Jagannathan RunkleGeneralized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GJR-GARCH) (1,1) models with skewed t residuals for margins. The Naira exchange rate returns is timevarying, tail-dependent, and asymmetric. …

External Debt Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Asue, James V. Ikyaator

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to a contemporaneous increase in inflation, while the direct response of inflation to external debt is statistically not significant. The impulse response confirms these results. The forecast error variance decomposition depicts that future values of official exchange rate depend on external debt, inflation and external debt service. The study recommends that the Nigerian government should …

Financial Inclusion And Poverty Reduction In Nigeria: The Role Of Microfinance Institutions, Okwudili W. Ugwuoke, Oliver E. Ogbonna, Aye-Agele Freeman

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the role of microfinance institutions as a vehicle for driving financial inclusion and alleviating poverty in Nigeria using the EFinA 2018 household survey data. The probit model, propensity score matching, and average treatment effect methods are applied for the analyses. The study finds that financial inclusion driven by access to, and usage of products/services provided by microfinance institutions reduces poverty. The study recommends among others the need for increased access to microfinance products/services and an integrated poverty reduction policies that identifies microfinance institutions as a critical enabler

Impact Of Central Bank Of Nigeria Interventions To Agriculture: Evidence From Anchor Borrowers Programme, Sani A. Oshishepo

Bullion

In an effort to boost agricultural production and non -oil export in the face of unpredictable crude oil earnings and it resultant effect on the revenue profile of Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in line with its developmental function, established the Anchor Borrowers Programme. This paper assesses, the impact, state participation and season positions from inception of the programme. Destock review and indebt interview as well data generated were employed to assess the impact of the programme, Issues surrounding, the distribution model, risks mitigation and challenges of the scheme were also examined. The paper concluded that there is …

Electronic Money And Economic Growth: What Implications For E-Naira Policy Adoption In Nigeria?, Jonathan Oniore, Obukohwo Oba Efayena

Bullion

This study examines the potential economic implications of the e-Naira policy in Nigeria. Employing the autoregressive distributed lagged model in evaluating quarterly data from 2009 to 2020, the study found that there is a long-run relationship between electronic transactions and economic growth. This implies that in the long-run, adopting the e-Naira policy will significantly impact economic growth. The study suggests that there is urgent need to adopt both technological and monetary apparatus fo ensure the e-Naira policy efficacy in Nigeria.

Fiscal Decentralization And Economic Performance In Selected Developing Federal Econom, Samuel Onyeka Okonkwo, Walter Okwudili Ugwuoke Phd

Bullion

Extant literatures on fiscal decentralization in most developing countries show more concerns on revenue allocation principle/sharing. Contrary to extant studies, this paper undertakes analysis of fiscal decentralization and economic performance in five emerging federal economies. The curiosity is to ascertain if poor economic performance in most emerging economies could be attributed to ill - structured fiscal decentralization. This objective was addressed using Panel Vector Autoregressive technique and impulse response function. The results showed that all the measures of fiscal decentralization such as revenue measure denoted as (FDC1), spending measure denoted as (FDC2) and revenue — spending measure or Simultaneity measure …

A Conceptual Framework On Tax Knowledge And Tax Compliance Intention: The Moderating Effect Of Patriotism In Nigeria, Mansur A. Saidu Dr., Ladan Shagari Shamsudeen Phd

Bullion

Realizing more tax revenues is a sign of an increase in the tax compliance intention of taxpayers within a given nation. This emanates from the taxpayers' level of readiness and willingness as a result of their accumulated tax knowledge and patriotism. But due to people's behavioral and social limitations, non-tax compliance intention is becoming eminent, leading to a lot of tax gaps and revenue losses on the part of the government to finance its expenditures for the betterment of a country. Not much could be achieved after several research efforts were recently put in place. The Income Tax Evasion Theory …

Digital Economy, Institutional Quality And Economic Growth In Selected Countries, Olabode P. Olofin Mr.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the role of digital economy and institutional quality on economic growth of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The study adopts the feasible generalized least square method with annual panel data from 1985 to 2017. Results show that digital economy, human capital and knowledge worker, and democratic accountability promote economic growth, while corruption, socioeconomic conditions, and bureaucratic quality retard economic growth. Furthermore, interaction of digital economy with corruption promotes growth. However, the interaction of digital economy with institutional quality retards economic growth, which could be due to the deteriorating institutional quality and low level of economic digitalization in …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Big Data Analytics, Al And Machine Learning For Central Banks: What It Portends For Emerging Economies In Africa, Leticia Kingsley-Nsirim Dr.

Bullion

In order to evaluate the status of the economy, policymakers and the private sector have relied on Statistics produced by official statistical institutes for decades. These data must be gathered with great effort, and publishing frequently takes months or years to complete. However, both the amount of data that is readily available and the tools and software used to analyse it have grown dramatically over the past few years. These changes have increased interest in big data and machine learning among central banks. The application of big data and machine learning in central banking is examined in this study. The …

Modeling And Forecasting Inflation Rate In Nigeria: A Comparison Of Regression With Arima Errors And Arima Method, Barthelomew I. Ugwuanyi

Bullion

The paper aimed to determine the most appropriate method for forecasting inflation rate in Nigeria between Regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. This study uses annual data for the period 1990-2021 from World Bank. One response variable and three predictor variables are adopted. The best ARIMA method was selected from the competing ARIMA methods using Akaike Information Criterion Corrected (AICC), while the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are used to select the best forecast method between the two methods of interest. The result of this …

Rethinking The "Phillips Curve" In Nigeria: Assessing The Unemployment-Inflation Nexus In A Non-Linear Framework, Oba Efayema Obukohwo, Hilda Enoh Olele

Bullion

The need to boost economic growth through policies that will simultaneously enhance employment and price stability cannot be overemphasized for a developing economy like Nigeria. This study thus seeks to ascertain the nexus between unemployment and inflation in Nigeria utilizing unemployment, and other control variables between 1980 and 2020 within a nonlinear framework, the study invalidated the inverse relationship. The study thus proposed that government should formulate and implement policies that will stimulate growth through an unemployment-inflation decelerating trajectory.

Assessment Of Fuel Prices As Determinants Of Inflation In Nigeria: A Vecm Approach, Adekunle B. Alexander Dr., Pelumi A. Abdulmalik

Bullion

This study examines the effect of petroleum price on the direction of inflation in Nigeria - whether or not movement in prices of other goods and services responds to increase in pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS) otherwise known as petrol in Nigeria. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests to estimate the long-run relationship between petro! price and inflation as well as direction of causality for the 1991- 2021 period. Data for the study were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and World Bank data indicators covering inflation, pump-price of …

Poverty And Poverty Alleviation Policies In The North Central Zone Of Nigeria, Gloria Ese Olotu Dr

Bullion

The paper examined poverty situation in the north central and the poverty alleviation policies of government as they affect the people of the north central zone in particular and Nigeria generally. This study was carried out in the face of the fact that poverty has characterized the Nigerian society such that over 70% of her citizens live below poverty line predicated by hunger, unemployment, poor housing, poor health care and other deprivations in spite of numerous government policies and programs aimed at alleviating or eradicating poverty in Nigeria since independence. Data for the study were generated through both the primary …

Impact Of Fiscal And Monetary Policies On The Performance Of The Nigerian Stock Market, Abraham Ochoche, Tari M. Karimo

Bullion

This paper examines the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on Nigeria's stock market performance for the period 2011:M11 — 2019:M12. Bounds test results indicate a run relationship among the variables. Further results indicate that Nigeria's all-share index increases with government expenditure in the short- and long-run, but increases with the interest rate in the short run only. Government revenue hurts AS in the short run, suggesting that the revenue-generating activities of government cause a crowding-out effect in the market. The study therefore recommends the synchronisation of both policies in any model intended for formulating stock market …

Impact Of Goods And Money Market Indicators On Stock Market Index In Nigeria, Adamu Hassan, Mika'‘Ilu Abubakar

Bullion

This study examines the influence of goods and money

market indicators on the performance of the Nigerian

stock market index from 1985 to 2021 using

Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The findings

demonstrate that goods market indicators such as

domestic savings and government spending have a

strong positive effect on the performance of the stock

market index, but domestic investment has a negative

influence on the performance of the stock market index.

This is because majority of the investors in goods market

are financially excluded and have no access to formal

financial system. The results of the money market reveal

that …

Welcome Address, Michael A. Adebiyi

Economic and Financial Review

This is the Welcome Address presented by the Director of Research, Central Bank of Nigeria during the 28th Edition of the CBN Executive Seminar held at Transcorp Hilton, Abuja. The year’s theme: ‘Digitalisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria’ was motivated by the need to keep pace with monetary policy design and implementation in the digital age.

Digital Currencies: Emerging Trends, Challenges And The Future Of The Monetary System, Ngozi E. Egbuna

Economic and Financial Review

This paper discusses the nature and types, trends, prospects and benefits, challenges and demerits of digital currencies, as well as, the link between digital currencies and the monetary system.

Keynote Address, Godwin I. Emefiele Con

Economic and Financial Review

This is the keynote address delivered by the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria at the Annual Executive Seminar of the Central Bank of Nigeria, holding in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory. The theme of the Seminar was "Digitisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria.”

Special Remarks, Kingsley Obiora

Economic and Financial Review

This is the special remark delivered by the Deputy Governor, Economic Policy at the 28th edition of the CBN Executive Seminar, jointly organised by the Research and Capacity Development Departments for Executive staff of the Bank. The theme of the Seminar is, “Digitalisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria”

Digital Technology And The Transformation Of The Nigerian Banking System: The Operators’ Perspective, Ireti Samuel-Ogbu

Economic and Financial Review

The rapid development of digital technology through the years, and the rails provided by the internet for connectivity remains the most important development that has impacted change and driven massive improvement in the operation of banking and financial services. It has brought in its wake huge disruptions in product roll-out and the way products are delivered. The entry of technology companies into financial services cannot be overlooked in discussing these changes. Nigeria has not been left behind in this evolution. Instead, the Nigerian banking industry has been the forerunner in digital initiatives in Africa that have transformed the banking and …

Adoption Of The Enaira: Issues And The Way Forward, Biodun Adedipe

Economic and Financial Review

As cryptocurrencies evolved and became more popular, it became obvious that the world was trending towards monetary disintegration and oversight reversal. It was becoming fashionable for technology-motivated products to be developed either to reduce or eliminate regulation of monetary transactions. The monetary system was gradually moving towards opacity that could create a ‘safe environment’ for illegal activities and open a new vista for money laundering. This of course, should be of grave concern to any monetary authority or government.

Goodwill Message, Muhammad M. Bello

Economic and Financial Review

This is the keynote address delivered by the Honourable Minister of Federal Capital Territory during the Central Bank of Nigeria Executive Seminar, taking place in the city of Abuja. The theme of the seminar was “The Digitisation of Money and Monetary Policy in Nigeria."

The Evolution Of Money And The Changing Role Of Central Banks In The Digital Age, Uche Uwaleke

Economic and Financial Review

As a medium of exchange, money has evolved throughout the ages from barter system to fiat money issued by central banks. The digital age has ushered in new realities for central banks, transforming the nature of money and challenging monetary authorities to new roles required to implement their core mandate of maintaining monetary and price stability. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the changing roles of central banks occasioned by the challenges posed by digitalisation. Based on available literature surveyed, this changing role is principally evident in the recent move by most central banks to issue their …

Nigeria’S Budding Digital Economy: Coping With Disruptive Technology, Olugbenga Agboola

Economic and Financial Review

For a thriving and inclusive digital economy, African countries such as Nigeria need to build the critical foundations of the digital economy (World Bank Group, 2019). These foundations are interdependent and require public and private sector solutions.