Food Security Commons^™

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …

Impact Of Temperature On Children’S Nutrition: A Comparative Study Of Three Ecological Regions Of Nepal, Prakriti Shakya

Master's Theses

Nutrition obtained during the growth period of childhood significantly influences long-term well-being and overall productivity, ultimately contributing to the economy of a society. However, weather shocks can wreak havoc by damaging crops, changing yields of important crops and disrupting market access, which directly impacts the food intake of both adults and children. When these adverse events occur during childhood, short term and long term inadequacy in nutrition as well as disease incidence can cause malnutrition leading to stunted growth and cognitive impairment that may persist into adulthood, affecting the labor market and increasing health expenditure. To address this issue, we …

The Impact Of Index Based Livestock Insurance (Ibli) On Child Nutrition In Marsabit County, Kenya, Jackson Kadyampakeni

Master's Theses

The study uses six rounds of Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) panel surveys (2009 – 2015) for Northern Kenya’s Marsabit county to investigate the impact of IBLI on child nutrition and household food security. We employ Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Instrumental Variable (IV) regressions to account for potential endogeneity in IBLI uptake. The results indicate that while IBLI uptake significantly improves the intake of key nutrients such as Vitamin A, protein, iron, and fruits and vegetables, it does not translate into significant improvements in child nutrition status, as measured by Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) z-scores. Significant negative effects of age …

Agricultural Shocks On Household Stability: A Case Study Of Tanzania Maize Farmers, Zimmi Silonda Ndlovu

Master's Theses

As the global populations grow, the need for stronger agricultural resilience in areas with high food insecurity like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a must. Crop failure due to climate related events has increased substantially over the past decade, raising the risks to vulnerable groups like subsistence farmers. Understanding the effects of climate variability on farmers and their crops is a pivotal step towards increasing resilience and productivity. In this paper I approach this question using a Linear Probability Fixed-effects Model on Tanzanian Panel Survey data with monthly temperature and precipitation for years 2008 to 2013. Results suggest a negative relationship …

Sweet And Timely Insurance: The Role Of Honey In Reducing Coffee Producer Food Insecurity Exposure In Mexico, Grant Xavier Storer

Master's Theses

Smallholder coffee producers face a combination of pre- and post-harvest risk factors that leaves them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. A popular form of on-farm diversification is honey production through beekeeping, that has both nutritional and commercial value. This study investigates the role of honey production as means of food security management due to the heightened pollinating activity during the coffee flowering stage that follows the annual coffee harvest provides an additional non-contemporaneous source of income. Using primary data collected in coffee-producing regions of Chiapas, Mexico, I find that during the honey harvest months, which occurs during the early stage …

Understanding The Drivers Of Meat Consumption In Norway: An Exploration Of Environmental And Sociocultural Factors, Paul Wilhite

Master's Theses

This thesis focuses on meat consumption in Norway and issues needed to be addressed if it is to be reduced. This thesis aims to explore the sociocultural and environmental factors influencing meat consumption in Norway, a country known for its high per capita consumption of meat. By examining the historical, cultural, and economic contexts of meat consumption in Norway as well as the environmental impacts and ethical considerations associated with meat production and consumption, this thesis seeks to provide a nuanced understanding of the drivers of meat consumption in Norway. Following a brief outline of how these issues are to …

Agricultural Shocks On Household Stability: A Case Study Of Tanzania Maize Farmers, Zimmi Ndlovu

Master's Theses

As the global populations grow, the need for stronger agricultural resilience in areas with high food insecurity like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a must. Crop failure due to climate related events has increased substantially over the past decade, raising the risks to vulnerable groups like subsistence farmers. Understanding the effects of climate variability on farmers and their crops is a pivotal step towards increasing resilience and productivity. In this paper I approach this question using a Linear Probability Fixed-effects Model on Tanzanian Panel Survey data with monthly temperature and precipitation for years 2008 to 2013. Results suggest a negative relationship …

Estimating Treatment Effect Heterogeneity In A Comprehensive Microenterprise Intervention, Mary Gathungu

Master's Theses

Do cash transfer programs have heterogeneous treatment effects within the treatment group? Why do some households in these interventions seem to benefit more than others? What is the overall treatment effect of the Microenterprise Intervention? I address these questions through the study of a comprehensive microenterprise intervention program carried out in Kenya, Africa by a non-profit organization called the Village Enterprise Organization and I obtain economic outcome data from a randomized control trial that gives out conditional cash transfer that is conditional on business formation. The Microenterprise Intervention combines cash grants and mentorship and training to achieve long term economic …

Measuring Cocoa Agricultural Productivity: A Spatio-Temporal Econometric Approach, Yurlady Chaverra-Palacios

Master's Theses

A significant increase of 50.5 percent in the national production of cocoa was registered between 2011 and 2015 in Colombia. Nevertheless, 5,890 tons were imported in 2015 to supply domestic demand. Unlike other crops, the production of cocoa has made a significant contribution to the income of approximately 38,000 families of which 90 percent are small farm-producers with very little capital. Facilitating credit for investment is one of the main strategies of the national government to increase cocoa productivity. Correspondingly, the impact of the credit for investment on the cocoa agricultural productivity and if those investments have a spillover effect …

Boosting Demand For Biofortified Foods: The Case Of Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato Bread In Tamale, Ghana, Tchassanty Ouro-Gbeleou

Master's Theses

Abstract: In the context of introducing biofortification of staple crops as a food-based approach to combat micronutrient malnutrition in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), we carried out a survey in Tamale, Ghana to elicit consumers’ preference of and willingness to pay for one of the highly nutritious biofortified staple crop processed product: the Orange Fleshed Sweet Potato (OFSP) bread. Our results indicate that scores of respondents in the sample show preference for OFSP bread. The most important determinants of OFSP bread preference are its sweet taste and soft texture and consumers are willing to pay 0.634 pesewas more for the attribute …

Agricultural Technology Adoption And Adaptation Under Climate Change: Microevidence From Niger, Berenger Djoumessi Tiague

Master's Theses

Many regions of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are experiencing fast increases in human population pressure and urbanization. By 2050, feeding a planet of 9 billion people will require an estimated 50 percent increase in agricultural production. Farmers in in the Sahel are exposed to a highly variable weather over time, and to their limited adaptive capacity, therefore often use livestock as income generator, export earnings, and as insurance against weather risk. There is an increasing demand for livestock products, which increase pressure on crop residues use on the land. In this study, I use panel socio-economic data combined with village rainfall …

Financial Sector Development And Agricultural Productivity, John J. Onoja

Master's Theses

Global concern is rising about the performance of the agricultural sector in view of its integral role in poverty alleviation, economic development and meeting an ever-increasing nutritional demand. At the epicenter of the concern is declining productivity due to poor financial inclusion of the sector leading to low investment and returns to agriculture. A cursory examination of the existing literature on the subject reveals quite varied dimensions to the analysis of agriculture productivity-financial development nexus. Focusing on the role of financial sector development as a catalyst to agricultural productivity, we employ panel data and advances fixed-effects econometrics approach to empirically …

Behavioral Determinants Of Biofortified Food Acceptance: The Case Of Orange-Fleshed Sweet Potato In Ghana, Chinonso E. Etumnu

Master's Theses

Biofortified foods are being introduced in sub-Saharan Africa as an important strategy to help address micronutrient malnutrition. However, there has been little research on factors that could play decisive roles in their successful introduction. This paper investigates the determinants of consumer acceptance of biofortified orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) using data from a choice experiment conducted in Ghana. I find that OFSP is preferred to traditional white-fleshed and yellow-fleshed sweet potatoes as indicated by consumers' marginal willingness to pay for the three varieties. I also find that respondents' socio-economic characteristics do not have a significant effect on consumer acceptance of OFSP. …

Feeding The South: An Assessment Of Food Availability In Rural Mississippi, Nicole Baiza Lawrence

Master's Theses

The overall goal of this project is to investigate Mississippi’s rural food environment by assessing the food resources available to rural Mississippians. The primary objectives were to identify sample locations in each of the four cultural regions of Mississippi and determine the food resources available to residents of those counties. The intellectual merit of this research lies in its in-depth exploration of food accessibility in rural areas. Though there is a wealth of literature on the topics of urban food access and food deserts, very little research has been done in rural areas. Most studies focus on urban environments which …