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Articles 61 - 63 of 63
Full-Text Articles in Statistical Theory
Uncertainty Assessment Of Aircraft Maintenance Times By Using Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Huseyin Kudak
Uncertainty Assessment Of Aircraft Maintenance Times By Using Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Huseyin Kudak
Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations
The goal of this study is to demonstrate the use of the Dempster-Shafer Theory of evidence as a decision aid to predict aircraft maintenance times during wartime operations using expert judgment elicitation. Increased precision in time estimation enables the jet engine aircraft maintenance facility commander to make more accurate decisions for the Air Force's wartime tactical operations allowing the commander to gain a decisive advantage. A questionnaire was designed to elicit judgments from experts in the Aircraft Maintenance Facility (AMF) to investigate maintenance times of the major failure modes (Ignition, Fuel, and Electrical). Results of the expert judgment elicitation were …
Estimation Of Cumulative Incidence Functions In Competing Risks Studies Under An Order Restriction, Hammou El Barmi, Subhash C. Kochar, Hari Mukerjee, Francisco J. Samaniego
Estimation Of Cumulative Incidence Functions In Competing Risks Studies Under An Order Restriction, Hammou El Barmi, Subhash C. Kochar, Hari Mukerjee, Francisco J. Samaniego
Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations
In the competing risks problem an important role is played by the cumulative incidence function (CIF), whose value at time t is the probability of failure by time t for a particular type of failure in the presence of other risks. Its estimation and asymptotic distribution theory have been studied by many. In some cases there are reasons to believe that the CIFs due to two types of failure are order restricted. Several procedures have appeared in the literature for testing for such orders. In this paper we initiate the study of estimation of two CIFs subject to a type …
How Do Judges Think About Risk?, W. Kip Viscusi
How Do Judges Think About Risk?, W. Kip Viscusi
Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications
A sample of almost 100 judges exhibited well-known patterns of biases in risk beliefs and reasonable implicit values of life. These biases and personal preferences largely do not affect attitudes toward judicial risk decisions, though there are some exceptions, such as ambiguity aversion, misinterpretation of negligence rules, and retrospective risk assessments in accident cases, which is a form of hindsight bias. Although judges avoided many pitfalls exhibited by jurors and the population at large, they nevertheless exhibited systematic errors, particularly for small probability-large loss events. These findings highlighted the importance of judicial review and the input of expert risk analysts …