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Articles 1 - 7 of 7
Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Evaluating The Efficiency Of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms, Thuy Scanlon
Evaluating The Efficiency Of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms, Thuy Scanlon
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation technique that produces a Markov chain designed to converge to a stationary distribution. In Bayesian statistics, MCMC is used to obtain samples from a posterior distribution for inference. To ensure the accuracy of estimates using MCMC samples, the convergence to the stationary distribution of an MCMC algorithm has to be checked. As computation time is a resource, optimizing the efficiency of an MCMC algorithm in terms of effective sample size (ESS) per time unit is an important goal for statisticians. In this paper, we use simulation studies to demonstrate how the Gibbs …
Bayesian Kinetic Modeling For Tracer-Based Metabolomic Data, Xu Zhang
Bayesian Kinetic Modeling For Tracer-Based Metabolomic Data, Xu Zhang
Theses and Dissertations--Statistics
Kinetic modeling of the time dependence of metabolite concentrations including the unstable isotope labeled species is an important approach to simulate metabolic pathway dynamics. It is also essential for quantitative metabolic flux analysis using tracer data. However, as the metabolic networks are complex including extensive compartmentation and interconnections, the parameter estimation for enzymes that catalyze individual reactions needed for kinetic modeling is challenging. As the pa- rameter space is large and multi-dimensional while kinetic data are comparatively sparse, the estimation procedure (especially the point estimation methods) often en- counters multiple local maximum such that standard maximum likelihood methods may yield …
How Often Does The Best Team Win? A Unified Approach To Understanding Randomness In North American Sport, Michael J. Lopez, Gregory J. Matthews, Benjamin S. Baumer
How Often Does The Best Team Win? A Unified Approach To Understanding Randomness In North American Sport, Michael J. Lopez, Gregory J. Matthews, Benjamin S. Baumer
Mathematics and Statistics: Faculty Publications and Other Works
Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g., team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the development of meaningful cross-sport comparisons has been impeded by the difficulty of translating luck from one sport to another. In this manuscript we develop Bayesian state-space models using betting market data that can be uniformly applied across sporting organizations to better understand the role of randomness in game outcomes. These models can be used to extract estimates of team strength, the between-season, within-season and game-to-game variability of team …
Bayesian Skew Selection For Multivariate Models, Michael S. Smith, Anastasios Panagiotelis
Bayesian Skew Selection For Multivariate Models, Michael S. Smith, Anastasios Panagiotelis
Michael Stanley Smith
We develop a Bayesian approach for the selection of skew in multivariate skew t distributions constructed through hidden conditioning in the manners suggested by either Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) or Sahu, Dey and Branco~(2003). We show that the skew coefficients for each margin are the same for the standardized versions of both distributions. We introduce binary indicators to denote whether there is symmetry, or skew, in each dimension. We adopt a proper beta prior on each non-zero skew coefficient, and derive the corresponding prior on the skew parameters. In both distributions we show that as the degrees of freedom increases, …
Bayesian Analysis For Penalized Spline Regression Using Win Bugs, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, David Ruppert, M.P. Wand
Bayesian Analysis For Penalized Spline Regression Using Win Bugs, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, David Ruppert, M.P. Wand
Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers
Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. MCMC mixing is substantially improved from the previous versions by using low{rank thin{plate splines instead of truncated polynomial basis. Simulation time …
A Bayesian Mixture Model Relating Dose To Critical Organs And Functional Complication In 3d Conformal Radiation Therapy, Tim Johnson, Jeremy Taylor, Randall K. Ten Haken, Avraham Eisbruch
A Bayesian Mixture Model Relating Dose To Critical Organs And Functional Complication In 3d Conformal Radiation Therapy, Tim Johnson, Jeremy Taylor, Randall K. Ten Haken, Avraham Eisbruch
The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
A goal of radiation therapy is to deliver maximum dose to the target tumor while minimizing complications due to irradiation of critical organs. Technological advances in 3D conformal radiation therapy has allowed great strides in realizing this goal, however complications may still arise. Critical organs may be adjacent to tumors or in the path of the radiation beam. Several mathematical models have been proposed that describe a relationship between dose and observed functional complication, however only a few published studies have successfully fit these models to data using modern statistical methods which make efficient use of the data. One complication …
Spatially Adaptive Bayesian P-Splines With Heteroscedastic Errors, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, David Ruppert, Raymond J. Carroll
Spatially Adaptive Bayesian P-Splines With Heteroscedastic Errors, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, David Ruppert, Raymond J. Carroll
Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers
An increasingly popular tool for nonparametric smoothing are penalized splines (P-splines) which use low-rank spline bases to make computations tractable while maintaining accuracy as good as smoothing splines. This paper extends penalized spline methodology by both modeling the variance function nonparametrically and using a spatially adaptive smoothing parameter. These extensions have been studied before, but never together and never in the multivariate case. This combination is needed for satisfactory inference and can be implemented effectively by Bayesian \mbox{MCMC}. The variance process controlling the spatially-adaptive shrinkage of the mean and the variance of the heteroscedastic error process are modeled as log-penalized …