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Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Spatio-Temporal Prediction Of Arkansas Gubernatorial Election, Michael Harris
Spatio-Temporal Prediction Of Arkansas Gubernatorial Election, Michael Harris
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Our goal is to create spatio-temporal models for predicting future gubernatorial elections. For a concrete example of how well our models work we use past data to predict the 2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election and use the existing 2018 election data to check our models predictive accuracy. Gubernatorial election data was collected from the Arkansas Secretary of State website while related covariate data was collected from the website for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data we collect is on the county level. For predictive purposes we fit multiple models to the data using Markov chain Monte Carlo and …
A Bayesian Framework For Estimating Seismic Wave Arrival Time, Hua Zhong
A Bayesian Framework For Estimating Seismic Wave Arrival Time, Hua Zhong
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Because earthquakes have a large impact on human society, statistical methods for better studying earthquakes are required. One characteristic of earthquakes is the arrival time of seismic waves at a seismic signal sensor. Once we can estimate the earthquake arrival time accurately, the earthquake location can be triangulated, and assistance can be sent to that area correctly. This study presents a Bayesian framework to predict the arrival time of seismic waves with associated uncertainty. We use a change point framework to model the different conditions before and after the seismic wave arrives. To evaluate the performance of the model, we …
Comparing Elo, Glicko, Irt, And Bayesian Irt Statistical Models For Educational And Gaming Data, Breanna Morrison
Comparing Elo, Glicko, Irt, And Bayesian Irt Statistical Models For Educational And Gaming Data, Breanna Morrison
Graduate Theses and Dissertations
Statistical models used for estimating skill or ability levels often vary by field, however their underlying mathematical models can be very similar. Differences in the underlying models can be due to the need to accommodate data with different underlying formats and structure. As the models from varying fields increase in complexity, their ability to be applied to different types of data may have the ability to increase. Models that are applied to educational or psychological data have advanced to accommodate a wide range of data formats, including increased estimation accuracy with sparsely populated data matrices. Conversely, the field of online …