Statistical Models Commons^™

Methods For Evaluating Dropout Attrition In Survey Data, Camille J. Hochheimer

Theses and Dissertations

As researchers increasingly use web-based surveys, the ease of dropping out in the online setting is a growing issue in ensuring data quality. One theory is that dropout or attrition occurs in phases that can be generalized to phases of high dropout and phases of stable use. In order to detect these phases, several methods are explored. First, existing methods and user-specified thresholds are applied to survey data where significant changes in the dropout rate between two questions is interpreted as the start or end of a high dropout phase. Next, survey dropout is considered as a time-to-event outcome and …

Statistical Designs For Network A/B Testing, Victoria V. Pokhilko

Theses and Dissertations

A/B testing refers to the statistical procedure of experimental design and analysis to compare two treatments, A and B, applied to different testing subjects. It is widely used by technology companies such as Facebook, LinkedIn, and Netflix, to compare different algorithms, web-designs, and other online products and services. The subjects participating in these online A/B testing experiments are users who are connected in different scales of social networks. Two connected subjects are similar in terms of their social behaviors, education and financial background, and other demographic aspects. Hence, it is only natural to assume that their reactions to online products …

The Epsilon-Skew Exponentiated Beta Distribution, Chary Akmyradov

Theses and Dissertations

In this dissertation, we develop the Epsilon Skew Exponentiated Beta Distribution. This distribution is a bimodal skew distribution with shape, location, and skewness parameters. This distribution is useful in applications with bimodal data, such as in the biological data. The shape properties and the effects of parameters are discussed. Furthermore, we derived the mode and the expected values, mean and variance. In addition, we derive the moment generating function and develop the likelihood function. Parameter estimates are also developed. Then, we develop a simulation to generate the Epsilon Skew Exponentiated Beta random variables and use this new distribution in real …

Analysis Of A Voting Method For Ranking Network Centrality Measures On A Node-Aligned Multiplex Network, Kyle S. Wilkinson

Theses and Dissertations

Identifying relevant actors using information gleaned from multiple networks is a key goal within the context of human aspects of military operations. The application of a voting theory methodology for determining nodes of critical importance—in ranked order of importance—for a node-aligned multiplex network is demonstrated. Both statistical and qualitative analyses on the differences of ranking outcomes under this methodology is provided. As a corollary, a multilayer network reduction algorithm is investigated within the context of the proposed ranking methodology. The application of the methodology detailed in this thesis will allow meaningful rankings of relevant actors to be produced on a …

Modeling Multimodal Failure Effects Of Complex Systems Using Polyweibull Distribution, Daniel A. Timme

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) enlists multiple complex systems across each of their departments. Between the aging systems going through an overhaul and emerging new systems, quality assurance to complete the mission and secure the nation‘s objectives is an absolute necessity. The U.S. Air Force‘s increased interest in Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) and the Space Warfighting domain are current examples of complex systems that must maintain high reliability and sustainability in order to complete missions moving forward. DoD systems continue to grow in complexity with an increasing number of components and parts in more complex arrangements. Bathtub-shaped hazard functions arise …

Penalized Mixed-Effects Ordinal Response Models For High-Dimensional Genomic Data In Twins And Families, Amanda E. Gentry

Theses and Dissertations

The Brisbane Longitudinal Twin Study (BLTS) was being conducted in Australia and was funded by the US National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). Adolescent twins were sampled as a part of this study and surveyed about their substance use as part of the Pathways to Cannabis Use, Abuse and Dependence project. The methods developed in this dissertation were designed for the purpose of analyzing a subset of the Pathways data that includes demographics, cannabis use metrics, personality measures, and imputed genotypes (SNPs) for 493 complete twin pairs (986 subjects.) The primary goal was to determine what combination of SNPs and …

Estimating The Respiratory Lung Motion Model Using Tensor Decomposition On Displacement Vector Field, Kingston Kang

Theses and Dissertations

Modern big data often emerge as tensors. Standard statistical methods are inadequate to deal with datasets of large volume, high dimensionality, and complex structure. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms such as low-rank tensor decomposition for data compression, dimensionality reduction, and approximation.

With the advancement in technology, high-dimensional images are becoming ubiquitous in the medical field. In lung radiation therapy, the respiratory motion of the lung introduces variabilities during treatment as the tumor inside the lung is moving, which brings challenges to the precise delivery of radiation to the tumor. Several approaches to quantifying this uncertainty propose using a …

A Multi-Method Exploration Of The Genetic And Environmental Risks Contributing To Tobacco Use Behaviors In Young Adulthood, Elizabeth K. Do

Theses and Dissertations

Tobacco use remains the leading preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in both the United States and worldwide. Twin and family studies have demonstrated that both genetic and environmental factors are important contributors to tobacco use behaviors. Understanding how genes, the environment, and their interactions is critical to the development of public health interventions that focus on the reduction of tobacco related morbidity and mortality. However, few studies have examined the transition from adolescent to young adulthood – the time when many individuals are experimenting with and developing patterns of tobacco use. This dissertation thesis seeks to provide a comprehensive …

Bayesian Nonparametric Approaches To Multiple Testing, Density Estimation, And Supervised Learning, William Cipolli Iii

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation presents methods for several applications of Polya tree models. These novel nonparametric approaches to the problems of multiple testing, density estimation and supervised learning provide an alternative to other parametric and nonparametric models. In Chapter 2, the proposed approximate finite Polya tree multiple testing procedure is very successful in correctly classifying the observations with non-zero mean in a computationally efficient manner; this holds even when the non-zero means are simulated from a mean-zero distribution. Further, the model is capable of this for “interestingly different” observations in the cases where that is of interest. Chapter 3 proposes discrete, and …

Quantifying Transit Access In New York City: Formulating An Accessibility Index For Analyzing Spatial And Social Patterns Of Public Transportation, Maxwell S. Siegel

Theses and Dissertations

This paper aims to analyze accessibility within New York City’s transportation system through creating unique accessibility indices. Indices are detailed and implemented using GIS, analyzing the distribution of transit need and access. Regression analyses are performed highlighting relationships between demographics and accessibility and recommendations for transit expansion are presented.

Analysis And Modeling Of U.S. Army Recruiting Markets, Joshua L. Mcdonald

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) is charged with finding, engaging, and ultimately enlisting young Americans for service as Soldiers in the U.S. Army. USAREC must decide how to allocate monthly enlistment goals, by aptitude and education level, across its 38 subordinate recruiting battalions in order to maximize the number of enlistment contracts produced each year. In our research, we model the production of enlistment contracts as a function of recruiting supply and demand factors which vary over the recruiting battalion areas of responsibility. Using county-level data for the period of recruiting year RY2010 through RY2013 mapped to recruiting …

Design & Analysis Of A Computer Experiment For An Aerospace Conformance Simulation Study, Ryan W. Gryder

Theses and Dissertations

Within NASA's Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration # 1 (ATD-1), Interval Management (IM) is a flight deck tool that enables pilots to achieve or maintain a precise in-trail spacing behind a target aircraft. Previous research has shown that violations of aircraft spacing requirements can occur between an IM aircraft and its surrounding non-IM aircraft when it is following a target on a separate route. This research focused on the experimental design and analysis of a deterministic computer simulation which models our airspace configuration of interest. Using an original space-filling design and Gaussian process modeling, we found that aircraft delay assignments …

Dimension Reduction And Variable Selection, Hossein Moradi Rekabdarkolaee

Theses and Dissertations

High-dimensional data are becoming increasingly available as data collection technology advances. Over the last decade, significant developments have been taking place in high-dimensional data analysis, driven primarily by a wide range of applications in many fields such as genomics, signal processing, and environmental studies. Statistical techniques such as dimension reduction and variable selection play important roles in high dimensional data analysis. Sufficient dimension reduction provides a way to find the reduced space of the original space without a parametric model. This method has been widely applied in many scientific fields such as genetics, brain imaging analysis, econometrics, environmental sciences, etc. …

Using Spatiotemporal Methods To Fill Gaps In Energy Usage Interval Data, Kristin K. Graves

Theses and Dissertations

Researchers analyzing spatiotemporal or panel data, which varies both in location and over time, often find that their data has holes or gaps. This thesis explores alternative methods for filling those gaps and also suggests a set of techniques for evaluating those gap-filling methods to determine which works best.

Meta-Analysis Of Gene Expression Studies, Umaporn Siangphoe

Theses and Dissertations

Combining effect sizes from individual studies using random-effects models are commonly applied in high-dimensional gene expression data. However, unknown study heterogeneity can arise from inconsistency of sample qualities and experimental conditions. High heterogeneity of effect sizes can reduce statistical power of the models. We proposed two new methods for random effects estimation and measurements for model variation and strength of the study heterogeneity. We then developed a statistical technique to test for significance of random effects and identify heterogeneous genes. We also proposed another meta-analytic approach that incorporates informative weights in the random effects meta-analysis models. We compared the proposed …

Dynamic Bayesian Approaches To The Statistical Calibration Problem, Derick Lorenzo Rivers

Theses and Dissertations

The problem of statistical calibration of a measuring instrument can be framed both in a statistical context as well as in an engineering context. In the first, the problem is dealt with by distinguishing between the "classical" approach and the "inverse" regression approach. Both of these models are static models and are used to estimate "exact" measurements from measurements that are affected by error. In the engineering context, the variables of interest are considered to be taken at the time at which you observe the measurement. The Bayesian time series analysis method of Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) can be used …

Bayesian And Classical Regression Models Inference When The Errors Follow Skewed Distributions, Ebtisam Karim Abdulah

Theses and Dissertations

The Gamma distribution is one of the most popular distributions for reliability and lifetime data and can be used effectively in analyzing positive skewed data. In real life applications, analysts might wish to have distributions for analyzing positive and negative skewed data, therefore, in this century, we have seen a good attention for fitting data using skew distributions, because it allows continuous variations from symmetric to non-symmetric. Some empirical data, especially, finance (prices and returns) and environmental data have peak distributions and involve tail behavior which affects the model assumptions. In this dissertation, we extend two of the symmetric distributions, …

Extensions For The Epsilon Skew Exponential Power Distribution Family, Ahmad N. Flaih

Theses and Dissertations

Practical applied statistics reveals that the analysis of many real data that exhibit both fat-tailless and skewness shows significant departures from normality assumptions. In these circumstances, the adoption of more flexible models that cope with near normal data may be appropriate in place of adopting the robust approach, semi-parametric or nonparametric models, and Box-Cox transformation. An alternative approach is to consider using the Epsilon Skew Exponential Power (ESEP) distribution developed by Elsalloukh [12] and [15] which embeds the normal, fat-tailedness, and skewness distributions as special cases. We develop models based on using the ESEP family, in particular, the ESEP receiver …

Robust Sensitivity Analysis For The Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (Jieddo) Proposal Selection Model, Christina J. Willy

Theses and Dissertations

Throughout Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, the Department of Defense (DoD) faced challenges not experienced in our previous military operations. The enemy’s unwavering dedication to the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) against the coalition forces continues to challenge the day-to-day operations of the current war. The Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization’s (JIEDDO) proposal solicitation process enables military and non-military organizations to request funding for the development of Counter-Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) projects. Decision Analysis (DA) methodology serves as a tool to assist the decision maker (DM) in making an informed decision. This research applies Value Focused Thinking …

Demonstration And Verification Of A Broad Spectrum Anomalous Dispersion Effects Tool For Index Of Refraction And Optical Turbulence Calculations, J. Jean Cohen

Theses and Dissertations

An atmospheric optical turbulence strength model with a broad wavelength range of 355nm (ultraviolet) to 8.6m (radio frequencies) has been created at AFIT and implemented into the High Energy Laser End-to-End Operational Simulation tool (HELEEOS). This modeling and simulation tool is a first principles atmospheric propagation and characterization model. Within HELEEOS lies the High-Resolution Transmission Molecular Absorption (HITRAN) database, containing 1,734,469 spectral lines for 37 different molecules as of version 12.0 (2004). HITRAN affords HELEEOS incredible accuracy for electromagnetic (EM) propagation prediction. A full understanding of optical turbulence is needed to successfully predict EM radiation propagation, particularly within the application …

Creating Multi Objective Value Functions From Non-Independent Values, Christopher D. Richards

Theses and Dissertations

Decisions are made every day and by everyone. As these decisions become more important, involve higher costs and affect a broader group of stakeholders it becomes essential to establish a more rigorous strategy than simply intuition or "going with your gut". In the past several decades, the concept of Value Focused Thinking (VFT) has gained much acclaim in assisting Decision Makers (DMs) in this very effort. By identifying and organizing what a DM values VFT is able to decompose the original problem and create a mathematical model to score and rank alternatives to be chosen. But what if the decision …

Using Agent-Based Modeling To Evaluate Uas Behaviors In A Target-Rich Environment, Joseph A. Van Kuiken

Theses and Dissertations

The trade-off between accuracy and speed is a re-occurring dilemma in many facets of military performance evaluation. This is an especially important issue in the world of ISR. One of the most progressive areas of ISR capabilities has been the utilization of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). Many people believe that the future of UAS lies in smaller vehicles flying in swarms. We use the agent-based System Effectiveness and Analysis Simulation (SEAS) to create a simulation environment where different configurations of UAS vehicles can process targets and provide output that allows us to gain insight into the benefits and drawbacks of …

Optimization Of A Multi-Echelon Repair System Via Generalized Pattern Search With Ranking And Selection: A Computational Study, Derek D. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

With increasing developments in computer technology and available software, simulation is becoming a widely used tool to model, analyze, and improve a real world system or process. However, simulation in itself is not an optimization approach. Common optimization procedures require either an explicit mathematical formulation or numerous function evaluations at improving iterative points. Mathematical formulation is generally impossible for problems where simulation is relevant, which are characteristically the types of problems that arise in practical applications. Further complicating matters is the variability in the simulation response which can cause problems in iterative techniques using the simulation model as a function …

Theater-Level Stochastic Air-To-Air Engagement Modeling Via Event Occurrence Networks Using Piecewise Polynomial Approximation, David R. Denhard

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation investigates a stochastic network formulation termed an event occurrence network (EON). EONs are graphical representations of the superposition of several terminating counting processes. An EON arc represents the occurrence of an event from a group of (sequential) events before the occurrence of events from other event groupings. Events between groups occur independently, but events within a group occur sequentially. A set of arcs leaving a node is a set of competing events, which are probabilistically resolved by order relations. An important EON metric is the probability of being at a particular node or set of nodes at time …

Groundwater Model Parameter Estimation Using Response Surface Methodology, Richard M. Cotman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examined the use of response surface methodology (RSM) to estimate the parameters of a finite-element groundwater model. An existing two-dimensional, steady-state flow model of a fractured carbonate groundwater system in southwestern Ohio served as the calibration target data set. A Plackett-Burman screening design showed that only four of the ten hydraulic conductivity zones significantly contributed to the output of the finite-element model. Also, the effective porosity parameter did not significantly affect the model's output. Using only the four significant hydraulic conductivity parameters; four two-level, four-factor designed experiments were conducted to exploit the first-order response surface defined by a …

Estimating Groundwater Flow Parameters Using Response Surface Methodology, Leo C. Adams

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examined the use of response surface methodology RSM as a parameter estimation technique in the field of groundwater flow modeling. Using RSM, an attempt was made to calibrate three hydraulic parameters porosity, transverse permeability, and rate of recharge of an existing two- dimensional, steady-state flow model. The model simulated groundwater flow for a portion of landfill 10 located on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. The model had previously been calibrated by graphical matching observed water-levels to predicted water-levels. Using the parameter values from the earlier calibration effort as a starting point, a central composite design was developed and …

Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman

Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …

Radar Cross Section Models For Limited Aspect Angle Windows, Mark C. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis presents a method for building Radar Cross Section (RCS) models of aircraft based on static data taken from limited aspect angle windows. These models statistically characterize static RCS. This is done to show that a limited number of samples can be used to effectively characterize static aircraft RCS. The optimum models are determined by performing both a Kolmogorov and a Chi-Square goodness-of-fit test comparing the static RCS data with a variety of probability density functions (pdf) that are known to be effective at approximating the static RCS of aircraft. The optimum parameter estimator is also determined by the …

The Development Of A Performance Measurement Concept For The Royal Australian Air Force, David R. Mcdonald

Theses and Dissertations

he Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) needed to develop performance measurements (PMs) to support its Program Management and Budgeting (PMB) System. This research assessed the use of the concepts of the Theory of Constraints (TOC) to develop those PMs. The literature indicated that: traditional accounting PMs were not always suitable in an environment of continuous improvement; Activity Based Costing did not provide the required measures; and non-financial PMs were supplanting the older measures. Further, governments faced unique problems in developing PMs, particularly in defining the outcomes to be measured. Using the Critical Theory and Action Research methodologies, and a case …