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Full-Text Articles in Statistical Models
Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series
It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …
Bayesian And Related Methods: Techniques Based On Bayes' Theorem, Mehmet Vurkaç
Bayesian And Related Methods: Techniques Based On Bayes' Theorem, Mehmet Vurkaç
Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series
Bayes' theorem is a simple algebraic consequence of conditional probability. Yet, its consequences are critical to philosophy, society, and technology. Starting from its simple derivation, we will show how its interpretation in terms of base rates (priors) and class-conditional likelihoods illuminates everyday problems in medicine and law, and provides signal processing, communications, machine learning, model selection, and other applications of statistics with powerful classification and estimation tools. Next, we will briefly examine some of the ways in which this theorem can be adopted to include multiple attributes, contexts, hypotheses, and levels of risk. Methods derived from or related to Bayes’ …
Some Problems And Solutions In The Experimental Science Of Technology: The Proper Use And Reporting Of Statistics In Computational Intelligence, With An Experimental Design From Computational Ethnomusicology, Mehmet Vurkaç
Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series
Statistics is the meta-science that lends validity and credibility to The Scientific Method. However, as a complex and advanced Science in itself, Statistics is often misunderstood and misused by scientists, engineers, medical and legal professionals and others. In the area of Computational Intelligence (CI), there have been numerous misuses of statistical techniques leading to the publishing of insupportable results, which, in addition to being a problem in itself, has also contributed to a degree of rift between the Statistics/Statistical Learning community and the Machine Learning/Computational Intelligence community. This talk surveys a number of misuses of statistical inference in CI settings, …