Statistical Models Commons^™

Extreme Rainfall Frequencies Over The Kennedy Space Center Complex, Adam Schnapp, John Lanicci

John M Lanicci

A study of extreme rainfall frequencies over the NASA Kennedy Space Center complex was accomplished using a high-density rainfall dataset from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission’s observational network archive. Data from the network were gridded and analyzed to produce rainfall accumulation estimates for various return periods over the complex ranging from 1 to 100 years. Results of the analysis show that the rainfall accumulations for the 100-year return period are typically around 315 mm and 433 mm for 24-hour and 72-hour durations, respectively. These 100-year event estimates are consistent with those calculated from a longer-period archive at Titusville. Because the …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Sst In The Atlantic From Observations And Gcms, James Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger

Publications

No abstract provided.

Retrieval Of Sub-Pixel-Based Fire Intensity And Its Application For Characterizing Smoke Injection Heights And Fire Weather In North America, David Peterson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

For over two decades, satellite sensors have provided the locations of global fire activity with ever-increasing accuracy. However, the ability to measure fire intensity, know as fire radiative power (FRP), and its potential relationships to meteorology and smoke plume injection heights, are currently limited by the pixel resolution. This dissertation describes the development of a new, sub-pixel-based FRP calculation (FRP_f) for fire pixels detected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detection algorithm (Collection 5), which is subsequently applied to several large wildfire events in North America. The methodology inherits an earlier bi-spectral algorithm for retrieving sub-pixel …

Generalized Bathtub Hazard Models For Binary-Transformed Climate Data, James Polcer

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

In this study, we use a hazard-based modeling as an alternative statistical framework to time series methods as applied to climate data. Data collected from the Kentucky Mesonet will be used to study the distributional properties of the duration of high and low-energy wind events relative to an arbitrary threshold. Our objectiveswere to fit bathtub models proposed in literature, propose a generalized bathtub model, apply these models to Kentucky Mesonet data, and make recommendations as to feasibility of wind power generation. Using two different thresholds (1.8 and 10 mph respectively), results show that the Hjorth bathtub model consistently performed better …

Research Poster: An Overview Of Progress In Nsf Epscor Project Entitled, “Reducing Cloud Uncertainties In Climate Models”, Subhashree Mishra, David L. Mitchell, W. Patrick Arnott

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

Research poster

Research Poster: Hydrological Impacts Of Climate Change On Colorado Basin, Peng Jiang, Zhongbo Yu

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

Research poster

Research Poster: Climate Prediction Downscaling Of Temperature And Precipitation In The Great Basin Region, Ramesh Vellore, Benjamin J. Hatchett, Darko Koracin

2010 Annual Nevada NSF EPSCoR Climate Change Conference

Research poster

Demonstration And Verification Of A Broad Spectrum Anomalous Dispersion Effects Tool For Index Of Refraction And Optical Turbulence Calculations, J. Jean Cohen

Theses and Dissertations

An atmospheric optical turbulence strength model with a broad wavelength range of 355nm (ultraviolet) to 8.6m (radio frequencies) has been created at AFIT and implemented into the High Energy Laser End-to-End Operational Simulation tool (HELEEOS). This modeling and simulation tool is a first principles atmospheric propagation and characterization model. Within HELEEOS lies the High-Resolution Transmission Molecular Absorption (HITRAN) database, containing 1,734,469 spectral lines for 37 different molecules as of version 12.0 (2004). HITRAN affords HELEEOS incredible accuracy for electromagnetic (EM) propagation prediction. A full understanding of optical turbulence is needed to successfully predict EM radiation propagation, particularly within the application …

Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman

Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …

Modeling Surface And Subsurface Stormflow On Steeply-Sloping Forested Watersheds, Patrick G. Sloan, Ian D. Moore, George B. Coltharp, Joseph D. Eigel

KWRRI Research Reports

A simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model, based on the variable source area concept, was developed for predicting runoff from small, steep-sloped, forested Appalachian watersheds. Tests of the model showed that the predicted and observed daily discharges were in good agreement. The results demonstrate the ability of the model to simulate the "flashy" hydrologic behavior of these watersheds.

Five subsurface flow models were evaluated by application to existing data measured at Coweeta on a reconstructed homogeneous forest soil. The five models were: Nieber 's 2-D and 1-D finite element models (based on Richards' equation), the kinematic wave equation, and two simple storage …