Statistical Models Commons^™

Deep Machine Learning For Mechanical Performance And Failure Prediction, Elijah Reber, Nickolas D. Winovich, Guang Lin

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Deep learning has provided opportunities for advancement in many fields. One such opportunity is being able to accurately predict real world events. Ensuring proper motor function and being able to predict energy output is a valuable asset for owners of wind turbines. In this paper, we look at how effective a deep neural network is at predicting the failure or energy output of a wind turbine. A data set was obtained that contained sensor data from 17 wind turbines over 13 months, measuring numerous variables, such as spindle speed and blade position and whether or not the wind turbine experienced …

Predicting River Stage Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Eric Rohli

LSU Master's Theses

River stage prediction is an important problem in the water transportation industry. Accurate river stage predictions provide crucial information to barge and tow boat operators, port terminal captains, and lock management officials. Shallow river levels caused by prolonged drought impact the loading capacity of barges and tow boats. High river levels caused by excessive rainfall or snowmelt allow for greater tow capacities but make downstream transportation and lock management risky. Current academic river height prediction systems utilize either time series statistical analysis or machine learning algorithms to forecast future river heights, but systems that combine these two areas often limit …

Development Of A Slab-Based Monte Carlo Proton Dose Algorithm With A Robust Material-Dependent Nuclear Halo Model, John Wesley Chapman Jr

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Pencil beam algorithms (PBAs) are often utilized for dose calculation in proton therapy treatment planning because they are fast and accurate under most conditions. However, as discussed in Chapman et al (2017), the accuracy of a PBA can be limited under certain conditions because of two major assumptions: (1) the central-axis semi-infinite slab approximation; and, (2) the lack of material dependence in the nuclear halo model. To address these limitations, we transported individual protons using a class II condensed history Monte Carlo and added a novel energy loss method that scaled the nuclear halo equation in water to arbitrary geometry. …

Physical Applications Of The Geometric Minimum Action Method, George L. Poppe Jr.

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis extends the landscape of rare events problems solved on stochastic systems by means of the \textit{geometric minimum action method} (gMAM). These include partial differential equations (PDEs) such as the real Ginzburg-Landau equation (RGLE), the linear Schroedinger equation, along with various forms of the nonlinear Schroedinger equation (NLSE) including an application towards an ultra-short pulse mode-locked laser system (MLL).

Additionally we develop analytical tools that can be used alongside numerics to validate those solutions. This includes the use of instanton methods in deriving state transitions for the linear Schroedinger equation and the cubic diffusive NLSE.

These analytical solutions are …

Analysis Of 2016-17 Major League Soccer Season Data Using Poisson Regression With R, Ian D. Campbell

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

To the outside observer, soccer is chaotic with no given pattern or scheme to follow, a random conglomeration of passes and shots that go on for 90 minutes. Yet, what if there was a pattern to the chaos, or a way to describe the events that occur in the game quantifiably. Sports statistics is a critical part of baseball and a variety of other of today’s sports, but we see very little statistics and data analysis done on soccer. Of this research, there has been looks into the effect of possession time on the outcome of a game, the difference …

Cognitive Virtual Admissions Counselor, Kumar Raja Guvindan Raju, Cory Adams, Raghuram Srinivas

SMU Data Science Review

Abstract. In this paper, we present a cognitive virtual admissions counselor for the Master of Science in Data Science program at Southern Methodist University. The virtual admissions counselor is a system capable of providing potential students accurate information at the time that they want to know it. After the evaluation of multiple technologies, Amazon’s LEX was selected to serve as the core technology for the virtual counselor chatbot. Student surveys were leveraged to collect and generate training data to deploy the natural language capability. The cognitive virtual admissions counselor platform is currently capable of providing an end-to-end conversational dialog to …

Models As Weapons: Review Of Weapons Of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality And Threatens Democracy By Cathy O’Neil (2016), Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

Cathy O’Neil. 2016. Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy (New York, NY: Crown) 272 pp. ISBN 978-0553418811.

Accessible to a wide readership, Cathy O’Neil’s Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy provides a lucid yet alarming account of the extensive reach of mathematical models in influencing all of our lives. With a particular eye towards social justice, O’Neil not only warns modelers to be cognizant of the effects of their work on real people—especially vulnerable groups who have less power to fight back—but also encourages laypersons to take initiative …

Wildfire Emissions In The Context Of Global Change And The Implications For Mercury Pollution, Aditya Kumar

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Wildfires are episodic disturbances that exert a significant influence on the Earth system. They emit substantial amounts of atmospheric pollutants, which can impact atmospheric chemistry/composition and the Earth’s climate at the global and regional scales. This work presents a collection of studies aimed at better estimating wildfire emissions of atmospheric pollutants, quantifying their impacts on remote ecosystems and determining the implications of 2000s-2050s global environmental change (land use/land cover, climate) for wildfire emissions following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B socioeconomic scenario.

A global fire emissions model is developed to compile global wildfire emission inventories for major atmospheric …

Estimating The Respiratory Lung Motion Model Using Tensor Decomposition On Displacement Vector Field, Kingston Kang

Theses and Dissertations

Modern big data often emerge as tensors. Standard statistical methods are inadequate to deal with datasets of large volume, high dimensionality, and complex structure. Therefore, it is important to develop algorithms such as low-rank tensor decomposition for data compression, dimensionality reduction, and approximation.

With the advancement in technology, high-dimensional images are becoming ubiquitous in the medical field. In lung radiation therapy, the respiratory motion of the lung introduces variabilities during treatment as the tumor inside the lung is moving, which brings challenges to the precise delivery of radiation to the tumor. Several approaches to quantifying this uncertainty propose using a …

Statistical Analysis Of Momentum In Basketball, Mackenzi Stump

Honors Projects

The “hot hand” in sports has been debated for as long as sports have been around. The debate involves whether streaks and slumps in sports are true phenomena or just simply perceptions in the mind of the human viewer. This statistical analysis of momentum in basketball analyzes the distribution of time between scoring events for the BGSU Women’s Basketball team from 2011-2017. We discuss how the distribution of time between scoring events changes with normal game factors such as location of the game, game outcome, and several other factors. If scoring events during a game were always randomly distributed, or …

Testing The Independence Hypothesis Of Accepted Mutations For Pairs Of Adjacent Amino Acids In Protein Sequences, Jyotsna Ramanan, Peter Revesz

School of Computing: Faculty Publications

Evolutionary studies usually assume that the genetic mutations are independent of each other. However, that does not imply that the observed mutations are independent of each other because it is possible that when a nucleotide is mutated, then it may be biologically beneficial if an adjacent nucleotide mutates too. With a number of decoded genes currently available in various genome libraries and online databases, it is now possible to have a large-scale computer-based study to test whether the independence assumption holds for pairs of adjacent amino acids. Hence the independence question also arises for pairs of adjacent amino acids within …

Network Exploration Of Correlated Multivariate Protein Data For Alzheimer's Disease Association, Matthew J. Lane

Theses

Alzheimer Disease (AD) is difficult to diagnose by using genetic testing or other traditional methods. Unlike diseases with simple genetic risk components, there exists no single marker determining as to whether someone will develop AD. Furthermore, AD is highly heterogeneous and different subgroups of individuals develop the disease due to differing factors. Traditional diagnostic methods using perceivable cognitive deficiencies are often too little too late due to the brain having suffered damage from decades of disease progression. In order to observe AD at early stages prior to the observation of cognitive deficiencies, biomarkers with greater accuracy are required. By using …

Neural Network Predictions Of A Simulation-Based Statistical And Graph Theoretic Study Of The Board Game Risk, Jacob Munson

Murray State Theses and Dissertations

We translate the RISK board into a graph which undergoes updates as the game advances. The dissection of the game into a network model in discrete time is a novel approach to examining RISK. A review of the existing statistical findings of skirmishes in RISK is provided. The graphical changes are accompanied by an examination of the statistical properties of RISK. The game is modeled as a discrete time dynamic network graph, with the various features of the game modeled as properties of the network at a given time. As the network is computationally intensive to implement, results are produced …

Human-Intelligence/Machine-Intelligence Decision Governance: An Analysis From Ontological Point Of View, Faisal Mahmud, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The increasing CPU power and memory capacity of computers, and now computing appliances, in the 21st century has allowed accelerated integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into organizational processes and everyday life. Artificial intelligence can now be found in a wide range of organizational processes including medical diagnosis, automated stock trading, integrated robotic production systems, telecommunications routing systems, and automobile fuzzy logic controllers. Self-driving automobiles are just the latest extension of AI. This thrust of AI into organizations and everyday life rests on the AI community’s unstated assumption that “…every aspect of human learning and intelligence could be so precisely described …

Modeling Volatility Of Financial Time Series Using Arc Length, Benjamin H. Hoerlein

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

This thesis explores how arc length can be modeled and used to measure the risk involved with a financial time series. Having arc length as a measure of volatility can help an investor in sorting which stocks are safer/riskier to invest in. A Gamma autoregressive model of order one(GAR(1)) is proposed to model arc length series. Kernel regression based bias correction is studied when model parameters are estimated using method of moment procedure. As an application, a model-based clustering involving thirty different stocks is presented using k-means++ and hierarchical clustering techniques.

Towards Deeper Understanding In Neuroimaging, Rex Devon Hjelm

Computer Science ETDs

Neuroimaging is a growing domain of research, with advances in machine learning having tremendous potential to expand understanding in neuroscience and improve public health. Deep neural networks have recently and rapidly achieved historic success in numerous domains, and as a consequence have completely redefined the landscape of automated learners, giving promise of significant advances in numerous domains of research. Despite recent advances and advantages over traditional machine learning methods, deep neural networks have yet to have permeated significantly into neuroscience studies, particularly as a tool for discovery. This dissertation presents well-established and novel tools for unsupervised learning which aid in …

Passive Visual Analytics Of Social Media Data For Detection Of Unusual Events, Kush Rustagi, Junghoon Chae

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Now that social media sites have gained substantial traction, huge amounts of un-analyzed valuable data are being generated. Posts containing images and text have spatiotemporal data attached as well, having immense value for increasing situational awareness of local events, providing insights for investigations and understanding the extent of incidents, their severity, and consequences, as well as their time-evolving nature. However, the large volume of unstructured social media data hinders exploration and examination. To analyze such social media data, the S.M.A.R.T system provides the analyst with an interactive visual spatiotemporal analysis and spatial decision support environment that assists in evacuation planning …

Hpcnmf: A High-Performance Toolbox For Non-Negative Matrix Factorization, Karthik Devarajan, Guoli Wang

COBRA Preprint Series

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a widely used machine learning algorithm for dimension reduction of large-scale data. It has found successful applications in a variety of fields such as computational biology, neuroscience, natural language processing, information retrieval, image processing and speech recognition. In bioinformatics, for example, it has been used to extract patterns and profiles from genomic and text-mining data as well as in protein sequence and structure analysis. While the scientific performance of NMF is very promising in dealing with high dimensional data sets and complex data structures, its computational cost is high and sometimes could be critical for …

Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens' Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing And Machine Learning Techniques, Abubakar-Sadiq Bouda Abdulai

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Traditional approaches to predicting financial market dynamics tend to be linear and stationary, whereas financial time series data is increasingly nonlinear and non-stationary. Lately, advances in dynamical systems theory have enabled the extraction of complex dynamics from time series data. These developments include theory of time delay embedding and phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems from a scalar time series. In this thesis, a time delay embedding approach for predicting intraday stock or stock index movement is developed. The approach combines methods of nonlinear time series analysis with those of causality testing, theory of dynamical systems and machine learning (artificial …

Prediction: The Quintessential Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …

A Gene-Based Association Method For Mapping Traits Using Reference Transcriptome Data, Eric R. Gamazon, Heather Wheeler, Kaanan P. Shah, Sahar V. Mozaffari, Keston Aquino-Michaels, Robert J. Carroll, Anne E. Eyler, Joshua C. Denny, Gtex Consortium, Dan L. Nicolae, Nancy J. Cox, Hae Kyung Im

Bioinformatics Faculty Publications

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants robustly associated with complex traits. However, the biological mechanisms underlying these associations are, in general, not well understood. We propose a gene-based association method called PrediXcan that directly tests the molecular mechanisms through which genetic variation affects phenotype. The approach estimates the component of gene expression determined by an individual’s genetic profile and correlates ‘imputed’ gene expression with the phenotype under investigation to identify genes involved in the etiology of the phenotype. Genetically regulated gene expression is estimated using whole-genome tissue-dependent prediction models trained with reference transcriptome data sets. PrediXcan enjoys …

Video Event Understanding With Pattern Theory, Fillipe Souza, Sudeep Sarkar, Anuj Srivastava, Jingyong Su

MODVIS Workshop

We propose a combinatorial approach built on Grenander’s pattern theory to generate semantic interpretations of video events of human activities. The basic units of representations, termed generators, are linked with each other using pairwise connections, termed bonds, that satisfy predefined relations. Different generators are specified for different levels, from (image) features at the bottom level to (human) actions at the highest, providing a rich representation of items in a scene. The resulting configurations of connected generators provide scene interpretations; the inference goal is to parse given video data and generate high-probability configurations. The probabilistic structures are imposed using energies that …

Modeling Traffic At An Intersection, Kaleigh L. Mulkey, Saniita K. Fasenntao

Symposium of Student Scholars

The main purpose of this project is to build a mathematical model for traffic at a busy intersection. We use elements of Queueing Theory to build our model: the vehicles driving into the intersection are the “arrival process” and the stop light in the intersection is the “server.”

We collected traffic data on the number of vehicles arriving to the intersection, the duration of green and red lights, and the number of vehicles going through the intersection during a green light. We built a SAS macro code to simulate traffic based on parameters derived from the data.

In our program …

A Predictive Modeling System: Early Identification Of Students At-Risk Enrolled In Online Learning Programs, Mary L. Fonti

CCAC Theses and Dissertations

Predictive statistical modeling shows promise in accurately predicting academic performance for students enrolled in online programs. This approach has proven effective in accurately identifying students who are at-risk enabling instructors to provide instructional intervention. While the potential benefits of statistical modeling is significant, implementations have proven to be complex, costly, and difficult to maintain. To address these issues, the purpose of this study is to develop a fully integrated, automated predictive modeling system (PMS) that is flexible, easy to use, and portable to identify students who are potentially at-risk for not succeeding in a course they are currently enrolled in. …

Spatiotemporal Crime Analysis, James Q. Tay, Abish Malik, Sherry Towers, David Ebert

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

There has been a rise in the use of visual analytic techniques to create interactive predictive environments in a range of different applications. These tools help the user sift through massive amounts of data, presenting most useful results in a visual context and enabling the person to rapidly form proactive strategies. In this paper, we present one such visual analytic environment that uses historical crime data to predict future occurrences of crimes, both geographically and temporally. Due to the complexity of this analysis, it is necessary to find an appropriate statistical method for correlative analysis of spatiotemporal data, as well …

Changing Minds To Changing The World: Mapping The Spectrum Of Intent In Data Visualization And Data Arts, Scott Murray

Art + Architecture

No abstract provided.

Measuring Security: A Challenge For The Generation, Janusz Zalewski, Steven Drager, William Mckeever, Andrew J. Kornecki

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science - Daytona Beach

This paper presents an approach to measuring computer security understood as a system property, in the category of similar properties, such as safety, reliability, dependability, resilience, etc. First, a historical discussion of measurements is presented, beginning with views of Hermann von Helmholtz in his 19th century work “Zählen und Messen”. Then, contemporary approaches related to the principles of measuring software properties are discussed, with emphasis on statistical, physical and software models. A distinction between metrics and measures is made to clarify the concepts. A brief overview of inadequacies of methods and techniques to evaluate computer security is presented, followed by …

Scalable Collaborative Filtering Recommendation Algorithms On Apache Spark, Walker Evan Casey

CMC Senior Theses

Collaborative filtering based recommender systems use information about a user's preferences to make personalized predictions about content, such as topics, people, or products, that they might find relevant. As the volume of accessible information and active users on the Internet continues to grow, it becomes increasingly difficult to compute recommendations quickly and accurately over a large dataset. In this study, we will introduce an algorithmic framework built on top of Apache Spark for parallel computation of the neighborhood-based collaborative filtering problem, which allows the algorithm to scale linearly with a growing number of users. We also investigate several different variants …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …