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Articles 31 - 36 of 36
Full-Text Articles in Probability
Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan
Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …
Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda
Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …
Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari
Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …
Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola
Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …
On The Total Duration Of Negative Surplus Of A Risk Process With Two-Step Premium Function, Pavlina Jordanova
On The Total Duration Of Negative Surplus Of A Risk Process With Two-Step Premium Function, Pavlina Jordanova
Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)
We consider a risk reserve process whose premium rate reduces from cd to cu when the reserve comes above some critical value v. In the model of Cramer-Lundberg with initial capital u ≥ 0, we obtain the probability that ruin does not occur before the first up-crossing of level v. When u < v, following H. Gerber and E. Shiu (1997), we derive the probability that starting with initial capital u ruin occurs and the severity of ruin is not bigger than v. Further we express the probability of ruin in the two step premium function model - ψ (u,v), by the last two probabilities. Our assumptions imply that the surplus process will go to infinity almost surely. This entails that the process will stay below zero only temporarily. We derive the distribution of the total duration of negative surplus and obtain its Laplace transform and mean value. As a consequence of these results, under certain conditions in the Model of Cramer-Lundberg we obtain the expected value of the severity of ruin. In the end of the paper we give examples with exponential claim sizes.
The Shift From Defined Benefit Pensions To 401(K) Plans And The Pension Assets Of The Baby Boom Cohort, James Poterba, Steven Venti, David A. Wise
The Shift From Defined Benefit Pensions To 401(K) Plans And The Pension Assets Of The Baby Boom Cohort, James Poterba, Steven Venti, David A. Wise
Dartmouth Scholarship
The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.