Probability Commons^™

Multiscale Modelling Of Brain Networks And The Analysis Of Dynamic Processes In Neurodegenerative Disorders, Hina Shaheen

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The complex nature of the human brain, with its intricate organic structure and multiscale spatio-temporal characteristics ranging from synapses to the entire brain, presents a major obstacle in brain modelling. Capturing this complexity poses a significant challenge for researchers. The complex interplay of coupled multiphysics and biochemical activities within this intricate system shapes the brain's capacity, functioning within a structure-function relationship that necessitates a specific mathematical framework. Advanced mathematical modelling approaches that incorporate the coupling of brain networks and the analysis of dynamic processes are essential for advancing therapeutic strategies aimed at treating neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs), which afflict millions of …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Ohio Recovery Housing: Resident Risk And Outcomes Assessment, Elyjiah Potter, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Addiction and substance abuse disorder is a significant problem in the United States. Over the past two decades, the United States has faced a boom in substance abuse, which has resulted in an increase in death and disruption of families across the nation. The State of Ohio has been particularly hard hit by the crisis, with overdose rates nearly doubling the national average. Established in the mid 1970’s Sober Living Housing is an alcohol and substance use recovery model emphasizing personal responsibility, sober living, and community support. This model has been adopted by the Ohio Recovery Housing organization, which seeks …

Exploration And Statistical Modeling Of Profit, Caleb Gibson

Undergraduate Honors Theses

For any company involved in sales, maximization of profit is the driving force that guides all decision-making. Many factors can influence how profitable a company can be, including external factors like changes in inflation or consumer demand or internal factors like pricing and product cost. Understanding specific trends in one's own internal data, a company can readily identify problem areas or potential growth opportunities to help increase profitability.

In this discussion, we use an extensive data set to examine how a company might analyze their own data to identify potential changes the company might investigate to drive better performance. Based …

Generalized Ratio-Product Cum Regression Variance Estimator In Two-Phase Sampling, Isah Muhammad

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study develops a flexible and efficient generalized ratio-product cum regression type estimator of population variance utilizing auxiliary variable in two-phase sampling that incorporates the properties of ratio-type and product-type estimators. The properties of the estimator were derived using first order approximation. The theoretical conditions under which the precision and the flexibility of the estimator is better than some classical estimators are also provided. Empirical evidence from five real datasets suggests that the proposed estimator outperforms the classical variance, ratio variance, product, and exponential ratio type estimators in terms of precision and efficiency. The estimator can be utilized to provide …

Foundations Of Memory Capacity In Models Of Neural Cognition, Chandradeep Chowdhury

Master's Theses

A central problem in neuroscience is to understand how memories are formed as a result of the activities of neurons. Valiant’s neuroidal model attempted to address this question by modeling the brain as a random graph and memories as subgraphs within that graph. However the question of memory capacity within that model has not been explored: how many memories can the brain hold? Valiant introduced the concept of interference between memories as the defining factor for capacity; excessive interference signals the model has reached capacity. Since then, exploration of capacity has been limited, but recent investigations have delved into the …

Reu-Deim Classification Of Hispanic Voters In Hispanic Groups Using Name And Zip Code Data In Palm Beach, Florida, Kamila Soto-Ortiz

Beyond: Undergraduate Research Journal

When it comes to registering to vote, Hispanic voters can only register as “Hispanic” in the “Race/Ethnicity” category, causing difficulties when analyzing voting trends amongst the Hispanic community. Upon the recent idea that not all Hispanic Groups vote the same, the goal is to create a model that can possibly identify a voter’s Hispanic Group with the information provided on the public Florida voter file. This is accomplished using name and zip code data for all voters in Palm Beach, Florida. This paper will explore the model implemented, its findings and limitations. Palm Beach, Florida, is met with low confidence …

The "Benfordness" Of Bach Music, Chadrack Bantange, Darby Burgett, Luke Haws, Sybil Prince Nelson

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this paper we analyze the distribution of musical note frequencies in Hertz to see whether they follow the logarithmic Benford distribution. Our results show that the music of Johann Sebastian Bach and Johann Christian Bach is Benford distributed while the computer-generated music is not. We also find that computer-generated music is statistically less Benford distributed than human- composed music.

Development And Testing Of A New Method For Velocity-Selecting White Dwarfs From Gaia By Galactic Population, Joseph Hammill

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

The detailed processes by which spiral galaxies form remains an open question in modern cosmology. Observations of the current configuration of spiral galaxies including the Milky Way reveal thin and thick disk and halo populations which must all be accounted for in formation theories and likely have distinct ages. Using the Milky Way as an example to probe this question, we are studying the formation history of these structures.

This work details our approach to age-dating the galaxy, velocity-selecting targets from a sample of white dwarfs from the Gaia DR3 catalog that have also been age-analysed using BASE-9. BASE-9 uses …

(R2027) A New Class Of Pareto Distribution: Estimation And Its Applications, Anitta Susan Aniyan, Dais George

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The classical Pareto distribution is a positively skewed and right heavy-tailed lifetime distribution having a lot many applications in various fields of science and social science. In this work, via logarithmic trans-formed method, a new three parameter lifetime distribution, an extension of classical Pareto distribution is generated. The different structural properties of the new distribution are studied. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian procedure. When all the three parameters of the distribution are unknown, the Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in a closed form and hence, the Lindley’s approximation under squared error loss …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Finite Mixture Modeling For Hierarchically Structured Data With Application To Keystroke Dynamics, Andrew Simpson, Semhar Michael

SDSU Data Science Symposium

Keystroke dynamics has been used to both authenticate users of computer systems and detect unauthorized users who attempt to access the system. Monitoring keystroke dynamics adds another level to computer security as passwords are often compromised. Keystrokes can also be continuously monitored long after a password has been entered and the user is accessing the system for added security. Many of the current methods that have been proposed are supervised methods in that they assume that the true user of each keystroke is known apriori. This is not always true for example with businesses and government agencies which have internal …

Application Of Probabilistic Ranking Systems On Women’S Junior Division Beach Volleyball, Cameron Stewart, Michael Mazel, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Women’s beach volleyball is one of the fastest growing collegiate sports today. The increase in popularity has come with an increase in valuable scholarship opportunities across the country. With thousands of athletes to sort through, college scouts depend on websites that aggregate tournament results and rank players nationally. This project partnered with the company Volleyball Life, who is the current market leader in the ranking space of junior beach volleyball players. Utilizing the tournament information provided by Volleyball Life, this study explored replacements to the current ranking systems, which are designed to aggregate player points from recent tournament placements. Three …

Defining Viable Solar Resource Locations In The Southeast United States Using The Satellite-Based Glass Product, Jolie Kavanagh

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses satellite data and the moment statistics to determine if solar farms can be placed in the Southeast US. From 2001-2019, the data are analyzed in reference to the Southwest US, where solar farms are located. The clean energy need is becoming more common; therefore, more locations than arid environments must be observed. The Southeast US is the main location of interest due to the warm, moist environment throughout the year. This research uses the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) photosynthetically active radiation product (PAR) to determine viable locations for solar panels. A probability density function (PDF) along …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Rewriting The Rules For Diagnostics: Implications Of Probability And Measure Theory For Sars-Cov-2 Testing, Paul Patrone, Anthony Kearsley

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Percentage Of Yellow Sour Patch Kids, Easton Kratzer, Sarah Baxter

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

After being given the Qualitative Research Project in Introduction to Statistics, I came up with the question asking what percentage of Sour Patch Kids are yellow. This resulted in me going through an entire bag and counting the amount of every color to figure out the percentages. (Class Project)

Preference For Violence By Gender, Ayrton Hall, Christian Watson, Akeisha Belgrave

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

In our survey we asked students of HU what their favorite video games were as well as their favorite genre and most played game. We then analyzed the data to see how gender affects preference for violent games. (Class Project)

Favorite Programming Language Among Students, Anwar Jawhar, Akeisha Belgrave

Harrisburg University Research Symposium: Highlighting Research, Innovation, & Creativity

This project involves understanding the favorite programming language among students. I hypothesize that the favorite programming language will be Python. (Class Project)

Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting Using Cloud Dynamics Features Extracted From Ground-Based Infrared Sky Images, Guillermo Terrén-Serrano

Electrical and Computer Engineering ETDs

Due to the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, power grids are vulnerable to the projection of shadows from moving clouds. An intra-hour solar forecast provides power grids with the capability of automatically controlling the dispatch of energy, reducing the additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This dissertation introduces a novel sky imager consisting of a long-wave radiometric infrared camera and a visible light camera with a fisheye lens. The imager is mounted on a solar tracker to maintain the Sun in the center of the images throughout the day, reducing the scattering effect produced …

Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore

SDSU Data Science Symposium

This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it …

Analysis Of Minor League Rule Changes Effect On Stolen Bases, Zachary Houghtaling

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This study uses various statistical analyses to evaluate the justification of rule changes for Major League Baseball that were implemented within the Minor Leagues during the 2021 minor league season. The primary focus of the study is predicting how some of these Minor League rule changes could affect the stolen base success rate and the number of attempts per game within the Major Leagues. A survey was conducted to evaluate how fans feel about stolen bases within the current game and if rules should be altered to increase the number of stolen bases that occur. Additionally, recorded Major and Minor …

Searching For Anomalous Extensive Air Showers Using The Pierre Auger Observatory Fluorescence Detector, Andrew Puyleart

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Anomalous extensive air showers have yet to be detected by cosmic ray observatories. Fluorescence detectors provide a way to view the air showers created by cosmic rays with primary energies reaching up to hundreds of EeV . The resulting air showers produced by these highly energetic collisions can contain features that deviate from average air showers. Detection of these anomalous events may provide information into unknown regions of particle physics, and place constraints on cross-sectional interaction lengths of protons. In this dissertation, I propose measurements of extensive air shower profiles that are used in a machine learning pipeline to distinguish …

Lake Huron Shoreline Analysis, Shubham Satish Nandanwar

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Lake Huron is a popular tourist destination and is home to several businesses and residents. Since the shoreline is dynamic and is subject to change over the years due to several factors such as a change in water level, soil type, human encroachment, etc., these locations tend to encounter floods due to increased water levels and wind speed. This causes erosion and loss to the properties along the shoreline.

This study is based on two areas of interest named Pinery Provincial Park and Sauble Beach which are located on the shoreline of Lake Huron where Pinery Provincial Park is a …

Identification And Characterization Of Forest Fire Risk Zones Leveraging Machine Learning Methods, Joshua Balson, Matt Chinchilla, Cam Lu, Jeff Washburn, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

Across the United States, record numbers of wildfires are observed costing billions of dollars in property damage, polluting the environment, and putting lives at risk. The ability of emergency management professionals, city planners, and private entities such as insurance companies to determine if an area is at higher risk of a fire breaking out has never been greater. This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying and characterizing zones with increased risks of forest fires. Methods involving machine learning techniques use the widely available and recorded data, thus making it possible to implement the tool quickly.

Risk-Based Machine Learning Approaches For Probabilistic Transient Stability, Umair Shahzad

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Power systems are getting more complex than ever and are consequently operating close to their limit of stability. Moreover, with the increasing demand of renewable wind generation, and the requirement to maintain a secure power system, the importance of transient stability cannot be overestimated. Considering its significance in power system security, it is important to propose a different approach for enhancing the transient stability, considering uncertainties. Current deterministic industry practices of transient stability assessment ignore the probabilistic nature of variables (fault type, fault location, fault clearing time, etc.). These approaches typically provide a conservative criterion and can result in expensive …

A Computational Study Of Genotype-Phenotype Mutation Patterns, Kamaludin Dingle, Omar Tawfik, Ahmed Aldabagh

Undergraduate Research Symposium

Understanding properties of genotype-phenotype maps is important for understanding biology and evolution. In this project we make a computational study of the statistical effects of genetic mutations, in particular computing the probabilities of each phenotype transitioning to any other phenotype. We also investigate the importance of the local phenotypic environment of a single genotype, and its role in determining mutation transition probabilities. We use HP protein folding, RNA structure, and a simplified GRN matrix model to study these questions.