Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series Commons^™

Availability Model To Evaluate Ai Data Centers’ Role In Grid Stability, Troy Mcsimov, Trevor S. Kunz, Jeffrey Billo

SMU Data Science Review

The United States has made it clear; it is imperative that the US wins the global AI race. This paper focuses on one of the most challenging puzzle pieces surfaced at the POWER Data Center conference (San Antonio, Sept. 30.); for Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) the limiting factor is not generation alone but the need to balance generation and load to preserve grid reliability.

The regulatory landscape fundamentally changed with the passage of Texas Senate Bill 6 in June 2025, which mandates new large loads must "contribute to the recovery of the interconnecting electric utility’s costs" (Texas Legislature, …

Enhancing Animal Shelter Operations With Time Series And Machine Learning, Sakava L. Kiv, Donald L. Anderson, Shivam Negi, Jacquelyn Cheun

SMU Data Science Review

Enhancing animal shelter operations through machine learning involves employing a variety of advanced techniques aimed at increasing efficiency, promoting animal welfare, and optimizing resource allocation. This paper explores predictive analytics for adoption rates using regression models to estimate the likelihood of adoption based on historical data, encompassing variables such as breed, health status, and previous adoption trends. Additionally, classification algorithms are utilized to categorize animals by adoption probability, facilitating better resources and marketing prioritization. Clustering algorithms are employed to group animals according to behavior patterns and/or physical health, enabling tailored medical care and enrichment activities that improve their mental and …

A Symbolic Approach To Nonlinear Time Series Analysis, Ranjan Karki, Nibhrat Lohia, Michael B. Schulte

SMU Data Science Review

Current nonlinear time series methods such as neural networks forecast well. However, they act as a black box and are difficult to interpret, leaving the researchers and the audience with little insight into why the forecasts are the way they are. There is a need for a method that forecasts accurately while also being easy to interpret. This paper aims to develop a method to build an interpretable model for univariate and multivariate nonlinear time series data using wavelets and symbolic regression. The final method relies on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks as a form of dimensionality reduction and the …

Reevaluating Texas Energy Market Forecasts In The Wake Of Recent Extreme Weather Events, Robert A. Derner, Richard W. Butler Ii, Alexandria Neff, Adam R. Ruthford

SMU Data Science Review

This paper provides updated forecasts of energy demand in Texas and recognizes the impact of sustainable energy. It is important that the forecasts of the adoption of sustainable energy are reexamined after Winter Storm Uri crippled the Texas power grid and left many without power. This storm highlighted the issues the Texas power grid had and has continued to struggle with in supplying the state with energy. This paper will offer an overview of the relevant literature on the adoption of sustainable energy and relevant events that have occurred in the state of Texas that will give the reader the …

Traditional Vs Machine Learning Approaches: A Comparison Of Time Series Modeling Methods, Miguel E. Bonilla Jr., Jason Mcdonald, Tamas Toth, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

In recent years, various new Machine Learning and Deep Learning algorithms have been introduced, claiming to offer better performance than traditional statistical approaches when forecasting time series. Studies seeking evidence to support the usage of ML/DL over statistical approaches have been limited to comparing the forecasting performance of univariate, linear time series data. This research compares the performance of traditional statistical-based and ML/DL methods for forecasting multivariate and nonlinear time series.

A Hybrid Ensemble Of Learning Models, Bivin Sadler, Dhruba Dey, Duy Nguyen, Tavin Weeda

SMU Data Science Review

Statistical models in time series forecasting have long been challenged to be superseded by the advent of deep learning models. This research proposes a new hybrid ensemble of forecasting models that combines the strengths of several strong candidates from these two model types. The proposed ensemble aims to improve the accuracy of forecasts and reduce computational complexity by leveraging the strengths of each candidate model.

Extending The M3-Competition: Category And Interval-Specific Time Series Forecasting, Will Sherman, Kati Schuerger, Randy Kim, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

The M3-Competition found that simple models outperform more complex ones for time series forecasting. As part of these competitions, several claims were made that statistical models exceeded machine learning (ML) techniques, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN), in prediction performance. These findings may over-generalize the capabilities of statistical models since the analysis measured the total forecasting accuracy across a wide range of industries and fields and with different interval lengths. This investigation aimed to assess how statistical and ML methods compared when individuating series by category and time interval. Utilizing the M3 data and building individual models using Facebook© Prophet …

Fraud Pattern Detection For Nft Markets, Andrew Leppla, Jorge Olmos, Jaideep Lamba

SMU Data Science Review

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) enable ownership and transfer of digital assets using blockchain technology. As a relatively new financial asset class, NFTs lack robust oversight and regulations. These conditions create an environment that is susceptible to fraudulent activity and market manipulation schemes. This study examines the buyer-seller network transactional data from some of the most popular NFT marketplaces (e.g., AtomicHub, OpenSea) to identify and predict fraudulent activity. To accomplish this goal multiple features such as price, volume, and network metrics were extracted from NFT transactional data. These were fed into a Multiple-Scale Convolutional Neural Network that predicts suspected fraudulent activity based …

Stock Forecasts With Lstm And Web Sentiment, Michael Burgess, Faizan Javed, Nnenna Okpara, Chance Robinson

SMU Data Science Review

Traditional time-series techniques, such as auto-regressive and moving average models, can have difficulties when applied to stock data due to the randomness inherent to the markets. In this study, Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks, or LSTMs, have been applied to pricing data along with sentiment scores derived from web sources such as Twitter and other financial media outlets. The project team utilized this approach to complement the technical indicators observed at the end of each trading day for three stocks from the NASDAQ stock exchange over a 12-year span. A common benchmark to assess model performance on time series …

Predicting Power Using Time Series Analysis Of Power Generation And Consumption In Texas, Joshua Eysenbach, Bodie Franklin, Andrew J. Larsen, Joel Lindsey

SMU Data Science Review

Due to the recent power events in Texas, power forecasting has been brought national attention. Accurate demand forecasting is necessary to be sure that there is adequate power supply to meet consumer's needs. While Texas has a forecasting model created by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), constant efforts are required to ensure that the model stays at the state-of-the-art and is producing the most reliable forecasts possible. This research seeks to provide improved short- and medium-term forecasting models, bringing in state-of-the-art deep learning models to compare to ERCOT’s forecasts. A model that is more accurate than ERCOT’s own …

Time Series Analysis Of Offshore Buoy Light Detection And Ranging (Lidar) Windspeed Data, Aditya Garapati, Charles J. Henderson, Carl Walenciak, Brian T. Waite

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, modeling techniques for the forecasting of wind speed using historical values observed by Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) sensors in an offshore context are described. Both univariate time series and multivariate time series modeling techniques leveraging meteorological data collected simultaneously with the LIDAR data are evaluated for potential contributions to predictive ability. Accurate and timely ability to predict wind values is essential to the effective integration of wind power into existing power grid systems. It allows for both the management of rapid ramp-up / down of base production capacity due to highly variable wind power inputs and …

Forecasting San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit (Bart) Ridership, Swee K. Chew, Alec Lepe, Aaron Tomkins, Peter Scheirer

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present a forecasting analysis of the San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) ridership data utilizing a number of different time series methods. BART is a major public transportation system in the Bay Area and it relies heavily on its riders' fares; having models that generate accurate ridership numbers better enables the agency to project revenue and help manage future expenses. For our time series modeling, we utilized autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), deep neural networks (DNN), state space models, and long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict monthly ridership. As there is such a wide range …

Demand Forecasting In Wholesale Alcohol Distribution: An Ensemble Approach, Tanvi Arora, Rajat Chandna, Stacy Conant, Bivin Sadler, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, historical data from a wholesale alcoholic beverage distributor was used to forecast sales demand. Demand forecasting is a vital part of the sale and distribution of many goods. Accurate forecasting can be used to optimize inventory, improve cash ow, and enhance customer service. However, demand forecasting is a challenging task due to the many unknowns that can impact sales, such as the weather and the state of the economy. While many studies focus effort on modeling consumer demand and endpoint retail sales, this study focused on demand forecasting from the distributor perspective. An ensemble approach was applied …

Demand Forecasting For Alcoholic Beverage Distribution, Lei Jiang, Kristen M. Rollins, Meredith Ludlow, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Forecasting demand is one of the biggest challenges in any business, and the ability to make such predictions is an invaluable resource to a company. While difficult, predicting demand for products should be increasingly accessible due to the volume of data collected in businesses and the continuing advancements of machine learning models. This paper presents forecasting models for two vodka products for an alcoholic beverage distributing company located in the United States with the purpose of improving the company’s ability to forecast demand for those products. The results contain exploratory data analysis to determine the most important variables impacting demand, …

Predicting Wind Turbine Blade Erosion Using Machine Learning, Casey Martinez, Festus Asare Yeboah, Scott Herford, Matt Brzezinski, Viswanath Puttagunta

SMU Data Science Review

Using time-series data and turbine blade inspection assessments, we present a classification model in order to predict remaining turbine blade life in wind turbines. Capturing the kinetic energy of wind requires complex mechanical systems, which require sophisticated maintenance and planning strategies. There are many traditional approaches to monitoring the internal gearbox and generator, but the condition of turbine blades can be difficult to measure and access. Accurate and cost- effective estimates of turbine blade life cycles will drive optimal investments in repairs and improve overall performance. These measures will drive down costs as well as provide cheap and clean electricity …

Longitudinal Analysis With Modes Of Operation For Aes, Dana Geislinger, Cory Thigpen, Daniel W. Engels

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we present an empirical evaluation of the randomness of the ciphertext blocks generated by the Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) cipher in Counter (CTR) mode and in Cipher Block Chaining (CBC) mode. Vulnerabilities have been found in the AES cipher that may lead to a reduction in the randomness of the generated ciphertext blocks that can result in a practical attack on the cipher. We evaluate the randomness of the AES ciphertext using the standard key length and NIST randomness tests. We evaluate the randomness through a longitudinal analysis on 200 billion ciphertext blocks using logistic regression and …

Demand Forecasting: An Open-Source Approach, Murtada Shubbar, Jared Smith

SMU Data Science Review

In this paper, we compare demand forecasting methods used by the supply chain department at Bilports to open-source forecasting methods. The design and implementation of the open-source forecasting system also attempts to use several external datasets such as consumer sentiment, housing permit starts, and weather to improve prediction quality. Additionally, the performance of the forecast is evaluated by the reduction of shipment lead times from China, the company’s primary vendor. The objective of our paper is to improve Bilports’s forecasting capabilities. The primary motivation of this paper is to increase forecasting accuracy and identify the weaknesses of the methods used …