Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series Commons^™

Crime Modeling Using An Integrated Cnn–Lstm Architecture With Embedded Self-Excitation, Pawandeep Kaur

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

It is often assumed that natural phenomena occur randomly over time. However, careful analysis reveals that these events typically form some series or sequences and exhibit distinctive temporal patterns. These patterns are not exclusive to nature. They also appear in human activities, often studied under the concept of bursty human dynamics. The statistical methods analyzing bursty human dynamics not only capture overall trends or seasonality but also explore how past events influence future ones. It makes the analysis more realistic and the results more closely aligned with reality. Bursty human dynamics can be studied at two levels: the individual level …

Self-Exciting Point Processes In Real Estate, Ian Fraser

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

This thesis introduces a novel approach to analyzing residential property sales through the lens of stochastic processes by employing point processes. Herein, property sales are treated as point patterns, using self-exciting point process models and a variety of statistical tools to uncover underlying patterns in the data. Key findings include the identification and explanation of clustering in both space and time, and the efficacy of a temporal Hawkes process with a sinusoidal background in predicting home sale occurrences. The temporal analysis starts by employing the state of art techniques for time series data like regression, autoregressive, and autoregressive integrated moving …

Lake Huron Shoreline Analysis, Shubham Satish Nandanwar

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Lake Huron is a popular tourist destination and is home to several businesses and residents. Since the shoreline is dynamic and is subject to change over the years due to several factors such as a change in water level, soil type, human encroachment, etc., these locations tend to encounter floods due to increased water levels and wind speed. This causes erosion and loss to the properties along the shoreline.

This study is based on two areas of interest named Pinery Provincial Park and Sauble Beach which are located on the shoreline of Lake Huron where Pinery Provincial Park is a …

Self-Exciting Point Process For Modelling Terror Attack Data, Siyi Wang

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Terrorism becomes more rampant in recent years because of separatism and extreme nationalism, which brings a serious threat to the national security of many countries in the world. The analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of terror data is significant in containing terrorism. This thesis focuses on building and applying a temporal point process called self-exciting point process to fit the terror data from 1970 to 2018 of 10 countries. The data come from the Global Terrorism database. Further, an application in predicting the number of terror events based on the self-exciting model is another main innovative idea, in which …

Toward Using High-Frequency Coastal Radars For Calibration Of S-Ais Based Ocean Vessel Tracking Models, Ben Freidrich

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Most of the world relies on ships for transportation, shipping, and tourism. Automatic Identification System messages are transmitted from ships and provide a wealth of positional data on these open ocean vessels. This data is being utilized to determine the optimal path for ships, as well as predicting where a ship may be going in the near future. It has only been in the past decade that Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) signals have been easily received with satellites (S-AIS) so there have been few studies that look at using available information and pairing it with the new abundance of ship …

Space-Time Modelling Of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Assessing Leptospirosis Risk In Sri Lanka, Cameron C F Plouffe

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

In this research, models were developed to analyze leptospirosis incidence in Sri Lanka and its relation to rainfall. Before any leptospirosis risk models were developed, rainfall data were evaluated from an agro-ecological monitoring network for producing maps of total monthly rainfall in Sri Lanka. Four spatial interpolation techniques were compared: inverse distance weighting, thin-plate splines, ordinary kriging, and Bayesian kriging. Error metrics were used to validate interpolations against independent data. Satellite data were used to assess the spatial pattern of rainfall. Results indicated that Bayesian kriging and splines performed best in low and high rainfall, respectively. Rainfall maps generated from …