Applied Statistics Commons^™

Evaluating Past Progress And Assessing Prediction Breeding Strategies For Sustained Genetic Gains In The Louisiana Sugarcane Variety Development Program, Brayden A. Blanchard

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

The aim of this dissertation is to outline important considerations for the Louisiana Sugarcane Variety Development Program (LSVDP) as it pertains to historical progress, impact, goal setting, and new strategies for continued genetic gains. Industry progress was evaluated with robust regression models to quantify rates of productivity gains. Over the last 50 years, statistically significant productivity gains were identified in sucrose content (45%), cane yield (32.2%), and sugar yield (93%) while pairwise comparisons of decades showed that progress was incremental rather than rapid and sustained once achieved. The decade from 1990-1999 was identified as the only decade with a significant …

Examining The Interaction Between Calcium Supplement Use, Demographics, And Lifestyle Factors On Bone Health In Women, Vix Talbot

University Honors Theses

Osteoporosis is a condition which poses a significant health threat, particularly among women during the menopause transition, where accelerated bone loss increases fracture risk. Calcium supplementation has been shown to be an important intervention to mitigate bone mineral density (BMD) decline during this and other periods of life. However, the efficacy of calcium supplementation is influenced by various individual factors, including demographics and lifestyle habits. This study investigates the interaction between calcium supplement use, and several interaction terms on bone health in women. Multiple linear regression analysis is employed to assess the impact of these factors on BMD. Data from …

Capturing Latent Abilities And Latent Capacities Of Professional Golfers Using Nonlinear Mixed Effects Growth Modeling, Mac Wetherbee

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrates an effective and innovative approach to measuring the latent athletic abilities and capacities of professional golfers. I used nonlinear mixed effects growth modeling (e.g., Dynamic Measurement Modeling) to measure professional golfers’ ability levels and capacities for improvement. I accomplished this using a two-stage modeling approach. First, a crossed linear mixed effects model estimated each player’s ability level in each year. In the second stage, I used the results from the first stage to estimate several candidate nonlinear growth trajectories for players’ abilities over time. The quadratic growth trajectory was the best-fitting of these trajectories and was used …

Nidus Idearum. Scilogs, Xiv: Superhyperalgebra, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this fourteenth book of scilogs – one may find topics on examples where neutrosophics works and others don’t, law of included infinitely-many-middles, decision making in games and real life through neutrosophic lens, sociology by neutrosophic methods, Smarandache multispace, algebraic structures using natural class of intervals, continuous linguistic set, cyclic neutrosophic graph, graph of neutrosophic triplet group , how to convert the crisp data to neutrosophic data, n-refined neutrosophic set ranking, adjoint of a square neutrosophic matrix, neutrosophic optimization, de-neutrosophication, the n-ary soft set relationship, hypersoft set, extending the hypergroupoid to the superhypergroupoid, alternative ranking, Dezert-Smarandache Theory (DSmT), reconciliation between …

Gender-Based Service Quality Evaluation Of Multimodal Public Transportation In Dki Jakarta, Mohammad Owais, Jachrizal Sumabrata, Nahry Yusuf

Smart City

In DKI Jakarta, despite the extensive infrastructure development, there has been a significant decline in the usage of public transportation. This can be attributed to the inadequate quality of the services provided. Various studies have highlighted the significance of evaluating the quality of service in public transportation to ensure passenger satisfaction and attract new users. However, there is no agreement on the most effective methodology and suitable indicators for conducting such analyses. In addition, there is a growing recognition of the importance of promoting gender equality in multimodal public transportation (MMPT) and understanding gender differences and perceptions of MMPT services. …

(R2075) Truncated Saddlepoint Approximation For Testing Means Of Right-Skewed Populations, Kalanka P. Jayalath

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

In the examination of the mean parameter of the skewed distributions, testing methods often rely on the central limit theorem and data transformation. Notably, Johnson’s and Chen’s modified ttests offer reliable alternatives by incorporating additional sample moments. This work directs its attention towards the truncated saddlepoint (TS) approximation method, which effectively estimates the right-tail probability of right-skewed continuous distributions using a limited number of sample moments. The TS approximation is employed to derive the p-value in one-sample mean testing. To evaluate its performance, a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted, comparing the TS approximation at four distinct truncation levels with …

(R2068) A Study To Assess The Stress On Students Of Higher Education During Covid-19 Using Fuzzy Logic System, Monika Rathore, Uday Raj Singh, Sanjeev Kumar

Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM)

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted various sectors, with higher education being one of the most severely affected. Students in higher education faced numerous challenges transitioning to online learning, leading to a surge in mental health issues. The abrupt shift in the mode of education and the inability of many students to adapt exacerbated their mental health struggles. This, in turn, contributed to a notable rise in student suicide rates in India during the pandemic-induced isolation period. Addressing this critical socio-psychological issue requires effective strategies for stress detection and management. The proposed study employed the Online Education Stress Scale (Online ESS) …

Causal Inference Using Bayesian Network For Search And Rescue, Amanda Belden

Master's Theses

People who are considered missing have much higher probabilities of being found dead compared to those who are not considered missing in terms of Search and Rescue (SAR) missions. Dementia patients are incredibly likely to be declared missing, and in fact after removing those with dementia the probability of the mission being regarded as missing person case is only about 10%. Additionally, those who go missing are much more likely to be on private land than on protected areas such as forests and parks. These and similar associations can be represented and investigated using a Bayesian network that has been …

Value Added Tax Rate Variation, Import Demand And Sectoral Output In Nigeria, Joshua K. Nomkuha, Aondoawase Asooso, Philip T. Abachi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase in VAT affects import demand negatively, based on import penetration ratios, with mixed effect across six sectors. The implication of the result is that the VAT policy discourage consumption of foreign products, and constitute excess burden to consumers of such products in Nigeria. The results further reveal that …

Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.

The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Transmission In Nigeria: Evidence From The Monetary Policy Rate And The Cash Reserve Ratio, Abdulrahman A. Nadani, Auwal Isah

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as policy instruments in Nigeria. A structural VAR model is employed to simulate two distinct models measuring shocks from the MPR and the CRR using monthly data from January 2006 to December 2023. Findings show that contractionary monetary policy impulses using MPR and the CRR contract output and credit to the private sector, inflation remains largely positive in the two models, known as the “price puzzle”, but the puzzle is more persistent in the MPR equation. Moreover, shock to MPR strongly influences short-term interest …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …

Qwixx Strategies Using Simulation And Mcmc Methods, Joshua W. Blank

Master's Theses

This study explores optimal strategies for maximizing scores and winning in the popular dice game Qwixx, analyzing both single and multiplayer gameplay scenarios. Through extensive simulations, various strategies were tested and compared, including a scorebased approach that uses a formula tuned by MCMC random walks, and race-to-lock approaches which use absorbing Markov chain qualities of individual score sheet rows to find ways to lock rows as quickly as possible. Results indicate that employing a scorebased strategy, considering gap, count, position, skip, and likelihood scores, significantly improves performance in single player games, while move restrictions based on specific dice roll sums …

Recursive Marix Game Analysis: Optimal, Simplified, And Human Strategies In Brave Rats, William A. Medwid

Master's Theses

Brave Rats is a short game with simple rules, yet establishing a comprehensive strategy is very challenging without extensive computation. After explaining the rules, this paper begins by calculating the optimal strategy by recursively solving each turn’s Minimax strategy. It then provides summary statistics about the complex, branching Minimax solution. Next, we examine six other strategy models and evaluate their performance against each other. These models’ flaws highlight the key elements that contribute to the effectiveness of the Minimax strategy and offer insight into simpler strategies that human players could mimic. Finally, we analyze 123 games of human data collected …

Unraveling The History Of Deforestation In The Amazon Rainforest With Statistical Modeling, Ryan Destefano

Master's Theses

The Amazon rainforest, a vital ecosystem of immense biodiversity and global climate significance, faces the ongoing threat of deforestation driven by agricultural expansion. This thesis employs remote sensing techniques, focusing on the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) derived from Landsat satellite imagery, to track land cover dynamics within the Amazon. The study examines historical land cover changes in current plantations in Peru and Brazil, regions where the exact timing of deforestation is uncertain. By analyzing EVI measurements dating back to 1984, inflection points indicative of deforestation events preceding plantation establishment are identified. Statistical modeling techniques, including spline fitting to analyze time …

Using Plankton Edna To Estimate Whale Abundances Off The California Coast: Data Integration And Statistical Modeling, Katherine Chan

Master's Theses

Understanding marine mammal populations and how they are affected by human activity and ocean conditions is vital, especially in tracking population declines and monitoring endangered species. However, tracking marine mammal populations and their distribution is challenging due to difficulties in observation and costs. Using surrounding plankton environmental DNA (eDNA) has the potential to provide an indirect measure of monitoring cetacean abundances based on ecological associations. This project aims to apply statistical methods to assess the relationship of visual abundances of common species of baleen whales with amplicon sequence variants (ASV) of plankton eDNA samples from the NOAA-CalCOFI Ocean Genomics (NCOG) …

Morphometric Analysis And Taxonomic Re-Evaluation Of Pepsis Cerberus Lucas And P. Elegans Lepeletier (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae: Pepsinae: Pepsini), Frank E. Kurczewski, Akira Shimizu, Diane H. Kiernan

Insecta Mundi

Hurd (1952) separated Pepsis cerberus Lucas from P. elegans Lepeletier (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae: Pepsinae: Pepsini) based on external morphology and biogeography. Vardy (2005) synonymized the familiar and historically well-documented P. cerberus and P. elegans, combining these Nearctic taxa with several Neotropical variants in an extremely broad definition of P. menechma Lepeletier. In doing so, Vardy (2005) breached the principle of nomenclatural stability. He ignored the prevailing usage and clearly violated articles 23.2, 23.3 and 23.9.1.2 of the ICZN (1999). Morphological differences, ecological divergence, and narrow sympatric geographic distribution of P. cerberus and P. elegans …

Multi-Type Branching Processes In Time-Varying Environments, Arash Jamshidpey

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Nidus Idearum. Scilogs, Xiii: Structure / Neutrostructure / Antistructure, Florentin Smarandache

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

In this thirteenth book of scilogs – one may find topics on Neutrosophy, Plithogeny, Physics, Mathematics, Philosophy – email messages to research colleagues, or replies, notes, comments, remarks about authors, articles, or books, spontaneous ideas, and so on. It presents new types of soft sets and new types of topologies.

Exchanging ideas with Mohammad Abobala, Ishfaq Ahmad, Ibrahim M. Almanjahie, Fatimah Alshahrani, Nizar Altounji, Muhammad Aslam, Said Broumi, Victor Christianto, R. Diksh, Feng Liu, Frank Julian Gelli, Erick Gonzalez Caballero, Riad Hamido, Yaser Al-Hasan, Ahmed Hatip, Yasin Karmouta, Nivetha Martin, Preda Mihăilescu, V. Lakshmana Gomathi Nayagam, Ze Carlos Tiago de …

Testing The Hypothesis That Tennis Points Are Independent And Identically Distributed Using Statistical Methods, Ernesto Ugona Santana

Senior Honors Theses

Most research on the probability of winning a tennis match is based on the assumption that the points are independent and identically distributed, treating each point as a Bernoulli trial with fixed probability of success. This assumption, however, seems to contradict experience. Players' performance appears to fluctuate as the match progresses due to the psychological effect of past performance. To test this counterintuitive yet central assumption, previous research has attempted to test the independence hypothesis. However, there exists a research gap in evaluating the identicality-of-distribution hypothesis, a question of broader scope than that of independence. Hence, the purpose of this …

A Novel Correction For The Multivariate Ljung-Box Test, Minhao Huang

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

This research introduces an analytical improvement to the Multivariate Ljung-Box test that addresses significant deviations of the original test from the nominal Type I error rates under almost all scenarios. Prior attempts to mitigate this issue have been directed at modification of the test statistics or correction of the test distribution to achieve precise results in finite samples. In previous studies, focused on designing corrections to the univariate Ljung-Box, a method that specifically adjusts the test rejection region has been the most successful of attaining the best Type I error rates. We adopt the same approach for the more complex, …

Evaluating The Epidemiological, Hormonal, And Psychosocial Sex-Based Differences In Sports-Related Concussion Outcomes, Samantha Kanny

All Dissertations

Sports-related concussions (SRCs) affect approximately 3.8 million athletes in the United States per year. A multitude of risk factors including age, sex, concussion history and prior medical conditions have been observed to significantly increase sports-related concussion symptom burden. Researchers have posited many reasons to explain sex-based differences in SRC outcomes, often categorized by biological characteristics or sociocultural factors, however, females are vastly underrepresented in sports-related concussion research, making it difficult to understand the true mechanisms underlying SRC sex-based differences. The goal of this dissertation is to help fill the current gap in knowledge on sex-based differences in sports-related concussion outcomes. …

Automatic Appraisals Of Houses, Sloan Scroggin

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Multiple hedonic models and an automatic appraiser model were used to create a residential house’s estimated sales price. The goal is to use the limited data available to a REALTOR® to estimate the future sales price of a residential home without the aid of pictures of the property or viewing the physical property. The first model automates some of the actions of an appraiser by finding comparable sales based on proximity, based both on distance between houses and characteristics of the houses, and then calculating a weighted average price for an estimated sales price of future sales. If the model …

Advancement Of Iterative Optimization Technology Algorithms Toward Calibration-Free Process Analytical Technology Applications, Adam Rish

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The expansion of spectroscopic process analytical technology (PAT) tools within the pharmaceutical industry has the potential to elevate the current state-of-the-art of pharmaceutical manufacturing by offering opportunities for reduced quality testing times, enhanced process control, and greater production flexibility. Spectroscopic PAT tools are dependent on multivariate models to extract the relevant information from the spectral outputs. However, there is a substantial calibration burden for developing and maintaining these multivariate models that discourages the application of PAT, despite the encouragement from regulators. This has led to an interest in calibration-free methods such as iterative optimization technology (IOT) for spectroscopic PAT that …

An Improved Bayesian Pick-The-Winner (Ibpw) Design For Randomized Phase Ii Clinical Trials, Wanni Lei, Maosen Peng, Xi K. Zhou

COBRA Preprint Series

Phase II clinical trials play a pivotal role in drug development by screening a large number of drug candidates to identify those with promising preliminary efficacy for phase III testing. Trial designs that enable efficient decision-making with small sample sizes and early futility stopping while controlling for type I and II errors in hypothesis testing, such as Simon’s two-stage design, are preferred. Randomized multi-arm trials are increasingly used in phase II settings to overcome the limitations associated with using historical controls as the reference. However, how to effectively balance efficiency and accurate decision-making continues to be an important research topic. …

Cost-Risk Analysis Of The Ercot Region Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Megan Sickinger

Master's Theses

In this work, we study the use of modern portfolio theory in a cost-risk analysis of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Based upon the risk-return concepts of modern portfolio theory, we develop an n-asset minimization problem to create a risk-cost frontier of portfolios of technologies within the ERCOT electricity region. The levelized cost of electricity for each technology in the region is a step in evaluating the expected cost of the portfolio, and the historical data of cost factors estimate the variance of cost for each technology. In addition, there are several constraints in our minimization problem to …

An Analysis Of Lyrical Repetition And Popularity In Popular Music Genres, Josh White

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

This paper examines the correlation between repetitiveness and popularity in the genres of Christian, Country, EDM, Hip-Hop, Latin, Pop, R&B, and Rock. Repetitiveness is defined by the frequency of repeated words in lyrics, and the average number of streams per day defines popularity. This analysis also acknowledges the "popularity" metric provided by Spotify in calculating the correlation. To calculate this correlation, I wrote a program that accesses the Spotify and Genius APIs to gather metadata related to 76,069 songs from 1,246 artists, including data on repetitiveness, tempo, duration, and Spotify's audio metrics of "danceability," "energy," "speechiness," "acousticness," and "instrumentalness." I …

Efficient Fully Bayesian Approaches To Brain Activity Mapping With Complex-Valued Fmri Data: Analysis Of Real And Imaginary Components In A Cartesian Model And Extension To Magnitude And Phase In A Polar Model, Zhengxin Wang

All Dissertations

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) plays a crucial role in neuroimaging, enabling the exploration of brain activity through complex-valued signals. Traditional fMRI analyses have largely focused on magnitude information, often overlooking the potential insights offered by phase data, and therefore, lead to underutilization of available data and flawed statistical assumptions. This dissertation proposes two efficient, fully Bayesian approaches for the analysis of complex-valued functional magnetic resonance imaging (cv-fMRI) time series.

Chapter 2 introduces the model, referred to as CV-sSGLMM, using the real and imaginary components of cv-fMRI data and sparse spatial generalized linear mixed model prior. This model extends the …

Representation Learning For Generative Models With Applications To Healthcare, Astronautics, And Aviation, Van Minh Nguyen

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores applications of representation learning and generative models to challenges in healthcare, astronautics, and aviation.

The first part investigates the use of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to synthesize realistic electronic health record (EHR) data. An initial attempt at training a GAN on the MIMIC-IV dataset encountered stability and convergence issues, motivating a deeper study of 1-Lipschitz regularization techniques for Auxiliary Classifier GANs (AC-GANs). An extensive ablation study on the CIFAR-10 dataset found that Spectral Normalization is key for AC-GAN stability and performance, while Weight Clipping fails to converge without Spectral Normalization. Analysis of the training dynamics provided further …

Using Probability Theory To Calculate The Odds That Either Candidate Wins The 2024 Presidential Election, Andrew Ruggero

Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

In the U.S., where the electoral college is used to determine the votes of an election, calculating the odds of a president winning is not as simple as looking at the total vote percentages. With each state not exactly having a proportionally linear amount of votes per its population, the total percentage doesn’t mean much. As such, in order to calculate these odds, we must look at a variety of winning combinations per each candidate. First, we must take into account that swing states are the only ones that matter. Defined as a 5% difference between the two main candidates, …