Applied Statistics Commons^™

A Framework For Inferring Unobserved Multistrain Epidemic Subpopulations Using Synchronization Dynamics, Eric Forgoston, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic subpopulations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and …

Penalized Function-On-Function Regression, Andrada Ivanescu, Ana Maria Staicu, Fabian Scheipl, Sonja Greven

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A general framework for smooth regression of a functional response on one or multiple functional predictors is proposed. Using the mixed model representation of penalized regression expands the scope of function-on-function regression to many realistic scenarios. In particular, the approach can accommodate a densely or sparsely sampled functional response as well as multiple functional predictors that are observed on the same or different domains than the functional response, on a dense or sparse grid, and with or without noise. It also allows for seamless integration of continuous or categorical covariates and provides approximate confidence intervals as a by-product of the …

Predicting Successful Long-Term Weight Loss From Short-Term Weight-Loss Outcomes: New Insights From A Dynamic Energy Balance Model (The Pounds Lost Study), Diana Thomas, W Andrada Ivanescu, Corby K. Martin, Steven B. Heymsfield, Kaitlyn Marshall, Victoria E. Bodrato, Donald Williamson, Stephen Anton, Frank M. Sacks, Donna Ryan, George A. Bray

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Background: Currently, early weight-loss predictions of long-term weight-loss success rely on fixed percent-weight-loss thresholds.

Objective: The objective was to develop thresholds during the first 3 mo of intervention that include the influence of age, sex, baseline weight, percent weight loss, and deviations from expected weight to predict whether a participant is likely to lose 5% or more body weight by year 1.

Design: Data consisting of month 1, 2, 3, and 12 treatment weights were obtained from the 2-y Preventing Obesity Using Novel Dietary Strategies (POUNDS Lost) intervention. Logistic regression models that included covariates of age, height, sex, baseline weight, …

Modeling Contagion In The Eurozone Crisis Via Dynamical Systems, Giuseppe Castellacci, Youngna Choi

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We recently (Castellacci and Choi, 2013) formulated a theoretical framework for the modeling of financial instability contagion using the theories of dynamical systems. Here, our main goal is to model the Eurozone financial crisis within that framework. The underlying system comprises many economic agents that belong to several subsystems. In each instantiation of this framework, the hierarchy and nesting of the subsystems is dictated by the nature of the problem at hand. We describe in great detail how a suitable model can be set up for the Eurozone crisis. The dynamical system is defined by the evolution of the wealths …

The Coupled Within- And Between-Host Dynamics In The Evolution Of Hiv/Aids In China, Jie Lou, Hongna Zhou, Dong Liang, Zhen Jin, Baojun Song

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In this work, we develop and analyze mathematical models for the coupled within-host and between-host dynamics caricaturing the evolution of HIV/AIDS. The host population is divided into susceptible, the infected without receiving treatment and the infected receiving ART treatment in accordance with China’s Four-Free-One-Care Policy. The within-host model is a typical ODE model adopted from literatures. The between-host model incorporates age-since-infection described by a system of integrodifferential equations. The two models are coupled via the viral load and number of CD4+ T cells of within the hosts. For the between-host model with an arbitrarily selected HIV infected individual, we focus …

Experimental Validation Of Robotic Manifold Tracking In Gyre-Like Flows, Matthew Michini, M. Ani Hsieh, Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In this paper, we present a first attempt toward experimental validation of a multi-robot strategy for tracking manifolds and Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) in flows. LCS exist in natural fluid flows at various scales, and they are time-varying extensions of stable and unstable manifolds of time invariant dynamical systems. In this work, we present the first steps toward experimentally validating our previously proposed real-time manifold and LCS tracking strategy that relies solely on local measurements. Although we have validated the strategy in simulations using analytical flow models, experimental flow data, and actual ocean data, the strategy has never been implemented …

Transportation Of Perishable And Refrigerated Foods In Mylar Foil Bags And Insulated Containers: A Time-Temperature Study, Yanyan Li, John P. Schrade, Haiyan Su, John Specchio

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Data are lacking on the temperature changes of food during transport without the use of refrigerated trucks. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of several insulated and noninsulated containers with or without frozen gel packs to keep perishable and refrigerated foods within the temperature safe zone in relationship to duration of transport. The study was designed to duplicate the practices exhibited by customers purchasing perishable food products from a cash-and-carry business. Approximately 40 perishable food items were evaluated. Four types of containers were tested: a mylar foil bag, a commercial insulated bag, a generic insulated bag, …

Different Types Of Backward Bifurcations Due To Density-Dependent Treatments, Baojun Song, Wen Du, Jie Lou

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A set of deterministic SIS models with density-dependent treatments are studied to understand the disease dynamics when different treatment strategies are applied. Qualitative analyses are carried out in terms of general treatment functions. It has become customary that a backward bifurcation leads to bistable dynamics. However, this study finds that finds that bistability may not be an option at all; the disease-free equilibrium could be globally stable when there is a backward bifurcation. Furthermore, when a backward bifurcation occurs, the fashion of bistability could be the coexistence of either dual stable equilibria or the disease-free equilibrium and a stable limit …

Predicting Unobserved Exposures From Seasonal Epidemic Data, Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the lower dimensional manifold on which the deterministic and stochastic dynamics correctly interact. Our method produces a low dimensional stochastic model that captures the same timing of disease outbreak and the same amplitude and phase of recurrent behavior seen in the high dimensional model. Given seasonal epidemic data consisting of the number of infectious individuals, our method enables a data-based model prediction of the number of unobserved exposed individuals over very …

Mathematical Modelling And Control Of Echinococcus In Qinghai Province, China, Liumei Wu, Baojun Song, Wen Du, Jie Lou

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In this paper, two mathematical models, the baseline model and the intervention model, are proposed to study the transmission dynamics of echinococcus. A global forward bifurcation completely characterizes the dynamical behavior of the baseline model. That is, when the basic reproductive number is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically globally stable; when the number is greater than one, the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically globally stable. For the intervention model, however, the basic reproduction number alone is not enough to describe the dynamics, particularly for the case where the basic reproductive number is less then one. The emergence of …

Noise, Bifurcations, And Modeling Of Interacting Particle Systems, Luis Mier-Y-Teran-Romero, Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a translating state and a rotating state with stationary center of mass. Time delayed communication creates a bifurcation pattern dependent on the coupling amplitude between particles. Using a mean field model in the large number limit, we show how the complete bifurcation unfolds in the presence of communication delay and coupling amplitude. Relative to the center of mass, the patterns can then be described as transitions between …

Maximal Sensitive Dependence And The Optimal Path To Epidemic Extinction, Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that …

Epidemic Spread Of Influenza Viruses: The Impact Of Transient Populations On Disease Dynamics, Karen R. Ríos-Soto, Baojun Song, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The recent H1N1 ("swine u") pandemic and recent H5N1 ("avian u") outbreaks have brought increased attention to the study of the role of animal populations as reservoirs for pathogens that could invade human populations. It is believed that pigs acquired u strains from birds and humans, acting as a mixing vessel in generating new influenza viruses. Assessing the role of animal reservoirs, particularly reservoirs involving highly mobile populations (like migratory birds), on disease dispersal and persistence is of interests to a wide range of researchers including public health experts and evolutionary biologists. This paper studies the interactions between transient and …

Pain As A Predictor Of Depression Treatment Outcomes In Women With Childhood Sexual Abuse, Ellen L. Poleshuck, Nancy L. Talbot, Haiyan Su, Xin Tu, Linda Chaudron, Stephanie Gamble, Donna E. Giles

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Objectives: Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) increases risk for both depression and pain in women. Pain is associated with worse depression treatment response. The contribution of pain to depression treatment outcomes in women with histories of CSA is unknown. This study examined whether clinically significant pain would be associated with worse depression and functioning outcomes among women with CSA histories treated with interpersonal psychotherapy. Method: Participants were 66 women with major depression and CSA who presented to a community mental health center. An interpersonal psychotherapy protocol planned for 14 weekly sessions followed by 2 biweekly sessions. Patients were classified as experiencing …

Topological Dynamics Of Two-Piece Eventually Expanding Maps, Youngna Choi

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

In this work we show that two-piece eventually expanding maps have the same topological dynamics as two-piece expanding maps. A two-piece eventually expanding map possesses an invariant set that is either a topological attractor or can be perturbed to become one.

Existence Of Multiple-Stable Equilibria For A Multi-Drug-Resistant Model Of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis, Abba B. Gumel, Baojun Song

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The resurgence of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in some parts of Europe and North America calls for a mathematical study to assess the impact of the emergence and spread of such strain on the global effort to effectively control the burden of tuberculosis. This paper presents a deterministic compartmental model for the transmission dynamics of two strains of tuberculosis, a drug-sensitive (wild) one and a multi-drug-resistant strain. The model allows for the assessment of the treatment of people infected with the wild strain. The qualitative analysis of the model reveals the following. The model has a disease-free equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically …

Delay-Induced Instabilities In Self-Propelling Swarms, Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We consider a general model of self-propelling particles interacting through a pairwise attractive force in the presence of noise and communication time delay. Previous work by Erdmann [Phys. Rev. E 71, 051904 (2005)] has shown that a large enough noise intensity will cause a translating swarm of individuals to transition to a rotating swarm with a stationary center of mass. We show that with the addition of a time delay, the model possesses a transition that depends on the size of the coupling amplitude. This transition is independent of the initial swarm state (traveling or rotating) and is characterized by …

Mathematical Analysis Of The Transmission Dynamics Of Hiv/Tb Coinfection In The Presence Of Treatment, Oluwaseun Sharomi, Chandra N. Podder, Abba B. Gumel, Baojun Song

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This paper addresses the synergistic interaction between HIV and mycobacterium tuberculosis using a deterministic model, which incorporates many of the essential biological and epidemiological features of the two diseases. In the absence of TB infection, the model (IIIV-only model) is shown to have a globally asymptotically stable, disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity and has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever this number exceeds unity. On the other hand, the model with TB alone (TB-only model) undergoes the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the associated …

Numerical And Asymptotical Study Of Three-Dimensional Wave Packets In A Compressible Boundary Layer, Eric Forgoston, Michael Viergutz, Anatoli Tumin

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A three-dimensional wave packet generated by a local disturbance in a two-dimensional hypersonic boundary layer flow is studied with the aid of the previously solved initialvalue problem. The solution can be presented as a sum of modes consisting of continuous and discrete spectra of temporal stability theory. Two discrete modes, known as Mode S and Mode F, are of interest in high-speed flows since they may be involved in a laminar-turbulent transition scenario. The continuous and discrete spectra are analyzed numerically for a hypersonic flow. A comprehensive study of the spectrum is performed, including Reynolds number, Mach number and temperature …

Raves, Clubs And Ecstasy: The Impact Of Peer Pressure, Baojun Song, Melissa Castillo-Garsow, Karen R. Ríos-Soto, Marcin Mejran, Leilani Henso, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Ecstasy has gained popularity among young adults who frequent raves and nightclubs. The Drug Enforcement Administration reported a 500 percent increase in the use of ecstasy between 1993 and 1998. The number of ecstasy users kept growing until 2002, years after a national public education initiative against ecstasy use was launched. In this study, a system of differential equations is used to model the peer-driven dynamics of ecstasy use. It is found that backward bifurcations describe situations when sufficient peer pressure can cause an epidemic of ecstasy use. Furthermore, factors that have the greatest influence on ecstasy use as predicted …

Distributed Blowing And Suction For The Purpose Of Streak Control In A Boundary Layer Subjected To A Favorable Pressure Gradient, Eric Forgoston, Anatoli Tumin, David E. Ashpis

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

An analysis of the optimal control by blowing and suction in order to generate streamwise velocity streaks is presented. The problem is examined using an iterative process that employs the Parabolized Stability Equations for an incompressible fluid along with its adjoint equations. In particular, distributions of blowing and suction are computed for both the normal and tangential velocity perturbations for various choices of parameters.

Three-Dimensional Wave Packet In A Hypersonic Boundary Layer, Eric Forgoston, Anatoli Tumin

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

A three-dimensional wave packet generated by a local disturbance in a hypersonic boundary layer flow is studied with the aid of the previously solved initial-value problem. The solution to this problem can be expanded in a biorthogonal eigenfunction system as a sum of discrete and continuous modes. A specific disturbance consisting of an initial temperature spot is considered, and the receptivity to this initial temperature spot is computed for both the two-dimensional and three-dimensional cases. Using previous analysis of the discrete and continuous spectrum, we numerically compute the inverse Fourier transform. The two-dimensional inverse Fourier transform is found for Mode …

Controlling Wound Healing Through Debridement, M. A. Jones, Baojun Song, D. M. Thomas

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The formation of slough (dead tissue) on a wound is widely accepted as an inhibitor to natural wound healing. In this article, a system of differential equations that models slough/wound interaction is developed. We prove a threshold theorem that provides conditions on the amount of slough to guarantee wound healing. As a state-dependent time scale, debridement (the periodic removal of slough) is used as a control. We show that closure of the wound can be reached in infinite time by debriding.